Nasdaq Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Us100
NASDAQ is very close to the top of the 1-year Channel Up! Sell?Nasdaq (NDX) is extending its aggressive rise of the Bullish Leg that started on the October 26 2023 Higher Low of the 1-year Channel Up and by the strength of it, it appears it will extend it to the max. That potential max extension is in the range of 18100 - 18300, which is the top of the dashed Channel Up and the top of the dotted 1-year Channel Up, which was initiated on the market Low of January 06 2023.
A news/ fundamentals based approach could time the bearish reversal after next Tuesday's U.S. CPI report. Technically though, the 1D RSI being on Lower Highs ever since December 19 2023, shows that technically we are already on a strong Bearish Divergence that can reverse any moment. The similarities with the previous Channel Up Higher High on July 18 2023 are striking, with the only exception that the current dashed Channel Up is overextending the 2nd peak.
Regardless of that, the 1D RSI is coming out a similar Megaphone and appears to be on a similar Lower High as July 31 2023. A similar RSI pull-back can be seen from February 02 to March 10 2023, which resulted into a -9.35% decline for Nasdaq. The August 18 2023 decline was translated into a -8.55% decline. As a result, assuming that 18100 is a potential peak for the index, we are targeting a minimum -8.55% decline, which falls directly on Support 2 at 16550. That would break the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and make contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
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US100 Will Fall! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for US100.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 17597.4.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 17170.0 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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NAS100 Technical AnalysisThe #NAS100 has been on an upward trend, but a potential triple top pattern is forming on the chart. If the #DXY retraces further and rebounds from support, the #US100 could spike above the current high, potentially taking out buy-side stop-loss orders before pulling back down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Remember, trading the #NASDAQ involves significant risk. This analysis is just my opinion and shouldn't be considered financial advice.
US10Y: Key Moment for Stock MarketHi Trader!
U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against interest rate cut bets, pushed European bond yields higher. Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, followed suit, with the uptick gaining momentum after Commerce Department data showing retail sales in December grew by 0.6% month on month, above the 0.4% economists had expected in a poll. Weak demand for a 20-year bond auction also helped lift yields later on Wednesday.
💡 "December retail sales reflect an economy that, although slowing, continues to be underpinned by consumer spending," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial. "For the Federal Reserve, slower consumer demand would help propel inflation to decelerate at a faster pace; however, with consumer confidence gaining momentum, the economic landscape remains on solid ground," she said in a note.
🔴 The short-end of the yield curve, more closely linked to monetary policy expectations, led the move higher. Two-year yields rose about 13 basis points to 4.354%, their biggest daily increase in over a month. Benchmark 10-year yields US10Y added about four basis points to 4.104%, their highest since Dec. 13.
🔴 From a technical perspective, chart shows a bearish impulse structure forming, and this technical bounce could form the second corrective leg (wave 4) before another bearish swing (wave 5). That said, the key resistance is around 4.23, and a rally above it could invalidate the technical structure.
We correctly predicted the surge in inflation last year, but now the geopolitical context has become more complex:
(Click on chart below)
In conclusion, if this analysis is correct, Stock Markets (SP500, Russell, DJ,...) should see another rally with potential new High Top...
Trade with care
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US500 M15 / Expecting a rise until the price of 5000 💲Hello traders!
This is my idea related to the US500 M15. The sellers' sentiment is still strong, and I expect a new ATH until the price of 5000 after that, I will look for a shot trade entry.
It represents a good opportunity to look for a long trade entry.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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NAS100 - WHAT THE F*** IS GOING ON? (KEY LEVELS)Hey Traders, yesterday’s market shake-up wasn’t just about the Fed's chess moves. A trifecta of less-than-stellar employment data, lukewarm tech earnings, and regional bank jitters sent the NAS100 on a rollercoaster, underscoring the fragile nature of our current economic landscape.
The Fed's stance was the talk of the town, maintaining a rate plateau between 5.25% and 5.5%. But here's the kicker: the Fed's not just playing hard to get with rate cuts—they want to be absolutely sure inflation is well-tamed before making a move. The puzzle? Inflation's at a tame 1.9%, yet they're still holding out for a clearer sign.
Powell's cool-headed presser post-meeting hinted at a 'wait and see' approach, calming fears of economic overheating or cooling. The good news? Inflation's behaving, and growth is chugging along. But the markets are twitchy, and the odds of a March rate cut have edged down from 'likely' to 'let's talk later.'
Now, let's bring in New York Community Bancorp’s plunge into the mix. Was it a one-off, or a canary in the coal mine for the banking sector? Concerns over credit quality and margins are in the air, with all eyes on whether this spells broader banking woes or just a case of merger indigestion.
As we gear up for our NAS100 price action analysis, these economic plot twists are crucial. They're the backdrop to every candlestick and trend line we're about to dissect. Stay tuned as we unravel the price story against this economic saga.
Based on the provided chart of the US 100 index and considering the backdrop of the latest economic news, here is an analysis that blends market sentiment with price action analysis:
What is on the chart? (key levels to look out for)
1) We have our retracement levels + the 4 hour FVG and BOS level. This area is a key resistance zone.
2) The order block that might provide us with a temporary (or permanent) bottom. You can consider it as a support level and it will determine the next step in our price action story.
3) Key daily level that is a great support area. You have the FVG + BOS level (previous ATH so significant) + discounted area.
4) This is a significant sellside level that I doubt will be broken with the current outlook which is more uncertain than bearish but still important to outline.
CONCLUSIVE SENTIMENT: Given the current economic context where the Fed is cautiously optimistic yet not ready to lower rates, the failure to break the ATH in the index could reflect a market that is wary of overextension and preparing for a period of consolidation or retracement. Investors may be taking a more defensive posture, awaiting further economic indicators before committing to a direction.
In essence, the sentiment appears to be one of caution, as reflected in the index's price behaviour and recent economic developments. Traders are advised to watch the key technical levels and stay informed on economic updates, as these could significantly impact market direction in the near term.
As always, stay cold headed and keep your money close! HAPPY TRADING!!!!
NASDAQ pulling back on high correlation with the July 2023 Top.Nasdaq (NDX) appears to be forming a Top approximately at the levels we described on our most recent idea (January 23, see chart below):
Today we move to the 4H time-frame where we can discuss the shorter term parameters of this expected pull-back. As you can see right away, the July 2023 peak (and the price action that led to it) is very similar to today's attempted technical peak formation. Both sequences started with an Accumulation Phase (green ellipse), rose and then had a 10-day correction and after a short re-accumulation (circle), they peaked on approximately a +6.80% rise. During all this time, they have been trading within a (dashed) Channel Up pattern.
In addition, the 4H RSI sequences between the two periods are virtually identical and we are now on the Lower Lows formation, where the actual index is below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), following the overbought 4H RSI peak. If the price continues to replicate the late July - early August 2023 sequence, then expect a Lower High and then sharp short-term correction below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). Target 1 is on Support 1 at 16560 and if we get a 1D candle closing below it, we will re-sell with Target 2 on Support 2 at 16200. That will be roughly a -8.67% decline from the top, similar to the August 18 2023 Low.
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NASDAQ: Is the correction starting?Nasdaq isn't overbought on the 1D time-frame anymore but technically it remains bullish (RSI = 63.538, MACD = 210.050, ADX = 41.826) and will continue to be as long as the two month Channel Up holds. It may be supported by the 1D MA50 but if the index follows the late July peak formation and crosses under the 0.382 Fibonacci level, then we expect a technical short term correction. The crossing will be our sell entry trigger and we will target the S1 level (TP = 16,200).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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🔝 Berkshire Hathaway. Grandpa Warren Breaks The TopLegendary investor Warren Buffett was on a trip to Tokyo, the capital of Japan, ten months earlier in mid-April 2023, and the titans of the country's giant energy and commodity conglomerates were there to make their presentations.
As usual, over glasses of Coca-Cola NYSE:KO - one of Buffett's most famous investments, they walked into Warren Buffett's suite at the luxury Four Seasons hotel and individually told the 92-year-old American investor the same thing: Japanese trading houses are cheap and should accelerate their move beyond commodities.
The support of the Oracle of Omaha is an important vote of confidence in the big five Japanese trading houses - Mitsubishi Corporations TSE:8058 , Mitsui TSE:8031 , Sumitomo TSE:8053 , Itochu TSE:8001 and Marubeni TSE:8002 .
It's also a broad endorsement of Japan, that is considered to have outlived its heyday 30-35 years ago, as well as considered less relevant than Asian counterparts such as China and India.
But there's one big question: Is Buffett betting on phasing out fossil fuels, the trading house products themselves, or a combination of the two? Or something else, like impact of the weak yen!?
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.B reported in August 2020 that it had acquired about 5% of the shares of five trading houses, that sent their stocks up and raised their total investment value above $6 billion. When the Covid-19 pandemic dampened demand for goods, it pushed down the value of company stocks, four of which traded below book value.
“They were selling, I thought, at a ridiculous price,” - 3 years later Buffett said to CNBC, in March 2023.
Three years after the Covid-19 pandemic (that is now hardly remembered) Warren Buffett's bets on Japan have nearly tripled to over $17 billion.
But even this Growth does not stop Buffett. Staying in Tokyo last spring, Buffett confirmed intentions to buy more shares, and participate in more big deals.
In addition, Berkshire recently unveiled plans to issue its own yen-denominated bonds, which can help hedge against the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar as well as depreciation of Japanese stocks in dollar terms.
In nowadays Japan Stock Index TSE:TOPIX ended 2023 on a positive note, adding more than 25 percent at the end of the year, that is, the maximum growth over the last 10 calendar years.
Early in 2024 TSE:TOPIX continues its growth path, as technology companies stocks are rallying.
In 2024 TSE:TOPIX hit the 2,500 yen mark - point that not been seen for more than 30 years - since the first half of 1990, while another one Japan stock index Nikkei225 INDEX:NKY hit its 36'000 Milestone - the level that was not seen also since early 1990s.
The main technical graph says Berkshire Hathaway Class B NYSE:BRK.B stocks are on the runway to break its key resistance - 6-month and all time highs, to further upside price action delver.
US100 17348.6 +0.14 % SHORT IDEA INTRA-DAY SETUP 🐻🐻🐻HELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great 🛑
A look at NASDAQ ahead of LONDON OPEN 📌
* Asian range taking beautifully.
* We are trading above the D, & W OPEN on the S&P 500 ( SMT)
* Looking for a sweep of BSL for continuation with the bears.
* If we take Asian lows 1st the trade is still valid for NY.
* we will just wait for BSL to be taken
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOURS BELOW🛑
lets see how it goes.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY OR IF YOU LIKE THIS ONE
SMASH THAT LIKE BUTTON & LEAVE A COMMENT.
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* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
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LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
US100Is US100 exhausting at All time high level?
As the price is been on high bull run but now it seems like price is lacking bullish momentum after reaching at resistance level and bearish divergence suggesting the sell pressure is about to start.
If the bears took control , the 1st target could be 16500 followed by 16000.
What you guys think of it?
NASDAQ Extremely close to a peak and a correction.Nasdaq (NDX) closed yesterday on a red 1D candle, with the 1D RSI above the 70.00 overbought barrier, but remains within the (dashed) Channel Up, as well as supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since November 03 2023.
Based on the 1D RSI which is within a Megaphone pattern, we might be approaching a peak similar to July 19 2023, whose RSI was also inside a Megaphone on almost the same levels as now. Following the peak, the price declined initially by -8.50%. Since the start of the year the other two major declines have been around -9.50%.
This suggests that if the index reverses around next week (Fed Rate Decision), we are technically aiming for 16200, which will put to a test Support 2 and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which made the bottom on the first -9.50% decline of last year on March 13.
The confirmation signal for atleast a short-term sell, can be when the index breaks the 1D MA50. Also, currently, the downside potential can be as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which by its current course can make contact with the price around Support 3 (15700). The 1D MA200 has been untouched for more than 10 months (since March 13 2023).
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NAS100 Trade IdeaThe NAS100 experienced a substantial rally towards the end of last week, displaying signs of being significantly overextended. A retracement may be in store, particularly if the Dollar Index (DXY) maintains and strengthens its position, considering the general inverse correlation between DXY and US100. It is essential to emphasize that this analysis is provided exclusively for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice.
Is failure valid?As you can see, the daily trend has managed to break its downward trend line and it is also in the direction of the weekly trend.
Due to the breakdown of the daily trend line, we are waiting to return to the target area, and of course, we are considering the goals ahead
⚠️ This Analysis will be updated ...
👤 Banipal : @hosseinbakrani
📅 02.20.2023
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US100 Will Move Higher! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for US100.
Time Frame: 5h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 16692.3.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 16904.9 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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NASDAQ Starting a double Top rejection towards the 1day MA200.Nasdaq / US100 is pulling back after a Double Top formation at 16970.
The 1day RSI is already inside a Channel Down, much like the patterns of the July 19th 2023 and February 03 2023 Tops.
They both declined by -9.00% on average.
Sell and target 15850, which is slightly over the bottom of the Rising Wedge (Rising Support) - 1day MA200 - 0.5 Fibonacci Support Zone.
Previous chart:
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