US100 / LONG TRADE SIGNAL Hello Traders!
This is my long trade setup on US100. The price is poised for a bullish move towards the supply level at 19600. I see a strong reaction from the demand zone and a bullish candle confirmation. This confluence signals a compelling opportunity for traders to capitalize on potential upward momentum.
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Us100
US30 - 15m Buy scalpThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) is currently on an upward trajectory, showing strong bullish momentum on the 15-minute chart. As it continues to rise, it is approaching a key resistance zone that has previously served as a turning point. Traders should watch this level closely, as the price may test and react to this resistance, potentially leading to a breakout or a consolidation phase. This anticipated rise towards the resistance zone signals a pivotal moment for US30's short-term direction, providing opportunities for strategic entries and exits based on price action around this area.
NASDAQ Literally nothing to stop this long-term rally.Earlier this month (June 07, see chart below), we explained why we were very bullish long-term on Nasdaq (NDX) using the 1W time-frame:
The price rose from 19000 to 19750 since and there is literally no technical sign of stopping this tremendous rally yet. In fact, today we bring you another approach, this time on the 2M time-frame.
As you can see, since November 2023, the index is past a Bullish Cross on the 2M LMACD. Since the 2008 Housing Crisis, we have witnessed this signal only 3 times. In fact, despite the presence of a relentless 14-year Channel Up, the most recent LMACD Bullish Cross resembles more the first one on November 2009.
Even though the 2022 Inflation Crisis wasn't the same as the 2008 Housing Crisis, it is the strongest we saw since then. The chart clearly shows that 2-year Channel Up (blue)/ Bullish Legs have been the vessels of upward continuation within the 14-year Channel, while at the same time +135% rises have been quite common.
As a result, before the current rally takes a breather, we can expect to see as high as even 24500 (+135% from the November 2022 bottom).
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US100 ( NASDAQ ) Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
📊 Let's Discuss NASDAQ
Let's discuss my favorite asset, NASDAQ. The first thing we need to consider is the Smart Money Technique (SMT) which appeared on the ES (S&P500) chart yesterday, and now reflects on the NASDAQ chart. This technique is currently positioned below the chart.
📈 Anticipating Price Expansion
We can anticipate the price to expand higher into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) resting above the current price, potentially reacting to the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) levels.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
In our key level area, we have the Midnight Open Price (00:00 NY Time) at 19691.5. Currently, the price is above this midnight open level, indicating a deep premium level, which supports our short scenario.
🔑 Liquidity Levels
At the start of the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) we have both the 4-hour previous high, which is a buy-side liquidity (BSL), and a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). These are the key liquidity levels to watch.
📉 Long Position Scenarios
For any long position scenarios, we need the sell-side liquidity to be taken out, which is quite far from the current price. We can look for lower time frame low resistance liquidity or the 50% retracement of the current range, resting at 19633.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dow Jones Index (US30): Your Trading Plan For Today
Dow Jones Index is testing, a recently broken
key daily resistance.
With a high probability, the broken structure turned into support.
Our confirmation to buy will be a bullish breakout
of a neckline of an ascending triangle formation on 1H time frame.
Hourly candle close above 39185 will confirm the violation.
A bullish continuation will be expected at least to 39325.
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US100 H1 - Long SignalUS100 H1
We are still very much in an uptrend on the US100, and as per the above H4 analysis, we ideally want to be trading with the trend. This hourly setup offer a long entry with stops covering arguably the previous lower high. The H1 timeframe looks good, 19700 price is a whole number price level.
The only concern lays on the H4 timeframe, where it looks like we are wanting to break downside further. Not looking to jump in this yet, but if we can see some hourly support confirmation, this could be something we entertain as we move into the US market open.
NASDAQ Minor correction expected. Where to buy?Nasdaq (NDX) has almost reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 26 2023 bottom. The last Higher Low was made on April 19 2024 and ever since, a strong Bullish Leg in the form of a Channel Up (dotted), took the index above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (red trend-line).
Since the last Bullish Leg topped at around a +20.87% rise, we can assume that the price has entered a rejection zone. The only parameter left to confirm this, is for the 1D MACD to form a Bearish Cross. As you can see the two Bullish Legs are fairly similar so far in their price action.
With the late December 2023 - early January 2024 pull-back bottoming on the 4H MA200 exactly, we are expecting a symmetrical pull-back to that level again, where we will be looking to add more buys and target 20700 (top of the 8-month Channel Up).
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US100 - Short SignalUS100 H2
Here is the analysis for NASDAQ. Looking to short as close to that 20000 price as possible. We are trading at ATH price currently, so it's hard to gauge how high this instrument might trade.
Although, 20000 is a very significant price, we could expect a dump of a few 100 points at least before continuing upside if this is the case.
NAS100 (NASDAQ US100) Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👉 In this analysis, we focus on the higher time frame charts for the NASDAQ 100 index. Currently, the charts indicate a bullish outlook. However, it’s important to note that this assessment is speculative and not a definitive prediction. To confirm a true reversal, we must closely monitor specific price movements. The accompanying video provides an in-depth analysis of the trend, market structure, and price action. Remember that trading carries substantial risk, so always prioritize robust risk management strategies in your decision-making process. 📊✅
Nasdaq Index: A Bubble About to BurstLOver the past six years, I have been deeply immersed in the financial markets, conducting thorough and continuous analysis through various methods, patterns, and analytical schools. Today, I would like to share with you a bold opinion that may seem unreasonable to some, but I am confident in its accuracy: the current prices of the Nasdaq Index are merely a reflection of a massive bubble that is about to burst.
#### Current Economic and Political Conditions
Let's look at the broader context of recent economic and political events. Inflation in the United States has reached unprecedented levels in decades, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates repeatedly. These rate increases lead to tighter liquidity, making financing more expensive and reducing consumer and investment spending. This has significantly impacted multiple sectors, including technology, which constitutes a large portion of the Nasdaq Index components.
#### Impact of Inflation and Interest Rates
High inflation means that living and production costs increase, reducing the ability of companies to achieve substantial profits. Technology companies, in particular, are heavily affected due to their significant reliance on cheap financing to grow their businesses. As interest rates rise, these companies' ability to borrow and grow diminishes, leading to a decline in their market value.
#### Expected Scenario for the Nasdaq Index
Imagine this scenario: upon the Nasdaq Index reaching levels between 20,500 and 20,700 , the bubble that has inflated illogically will start to burst. This burst will lead to a dramatic drop that may reach levels between 18,400 and 18,800 in the short term. But the story does not end there. Considering potential corrections and the breaking of these supports, the drop could accelerate until the index reaches astonishing levels of approximately 16,700.
#### Potential Recession and Economic Contraction
This anticipated drop is not just a number on a screen but a signal of a severe financial crisis that could ravage the American economy and leave a deep impact on global markets. Major companies will see their values shrink, leading to a loss of market confidence and increasing pressure on the entire financial system. With declining investments and rising unemployment rates, the likelihood of an economic recession and severe contraction increases.
For example, we can look at the global financial crisis of 2008, where the collapse of the housing market led to the downfall of major financial institutions and a significant rise in unemployment rates. Similarly, the economic crisis of the early 2000s, known as the dot-com bubble, saw a dramatic collapse in tech stock prices, leading to an economic recession.
#### Potential Impact on the American Economy
The current situation of the Nasdaq Index clearly indicates the unsustainability of high prices. The bubble we see today is built on unrealistic expectations and inflated market values. The anticipated drop will soon confirm the accuracy of this analysis, serving as a real test of the resilience of the economy and financial markets. In this scenario, we might witness a significant economic contraction, with a sharp decline in economic activities and rising unemployment rates, putting immense pressure on both the American and global economies.
Therefore, I urge you to take this analysis seriously and exercise caution in your investment strategies. The bubble is about to burst, and the major drop will come unexpectedly and swiftly.
Thank you, and I hope this analysis serves as an early warning for those seeking a deeper understanding of the current state of the Nasdaq Index and financial markets in general. Prepare yourselves, as the financial storm is approaching, and the upcoming events may change the face of the economy as we know it.
Tamer Omar, Analyst and Financial Markets Enthusiast
Date: June 17, 2024
Time: 21:17 PM (UTC+2)
NASDAQ Short-term pull-back possible. Know when to buy.Nasdaq (NDX) delivered an excellent buy signal last time we looked at it (May 30, see chart below) and is approaching our 19900 Target:
The pace of this rise however has been very strong, certainly stronger than the December 2023, which we used as fractal comparison, and the price already reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up.
At the same time, it hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level from the last Lower High before the break-out, while the 1D RSI reached the 78.00 overbought level. On the past fractal, the short-term correction that followed, bottomed on January 05 2024 on the 1.5 Fib ext.
As a result, we can't dismiss a short-term pull-back now but we will expect it to find Support around 19050 (Fib 1.5). We will use it as a new buy entry and target 20500 (the 2.618 Fibonacci extension) as we expect a new, more aggressive Channel Up to emerge.
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NASDAQ INDEX (US100): Potential Scenarios Ahead of FOMC
NASDAQ Index is currently consolidating within a horizontal range.
Most likely, the market participants are waiting for the FOMC tomorrow.
Depending on the reaction of the market to the boundaries of the range,
I see 2 potential scenarios.
Bullish Scenario
If the market breaks and closes above 19115 the resistance of the range,
with a high probability, a bullish rally will continue.
Bearish Scenario
If the Index breaks and closes below 18880 the support of the range,
it may initiate a correctional movement.
I think that US100 may keep being weak before the news release.
Let's see what direction the market will choose tomorrow.
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