CHK short term jump, then H&S ReversalAs I mentioned in my Natural Gas Forecast, I believe that Natural Gas is ready to move up, so I decided to check out CHK which I believe is in the NG business. It appears that CHK is nearing the bottom of a descending wedge with the potential to break out and form a great H&S reversal pattern. The hourly waves are all in good position and the Day wave is about to turn positive. I expect the move to begin in the next day and last for a few days. The price action also looks very similar to where it was on 4-08-16, which is when it jumped 60% in just a few days, which is what I believe it is going to do again.
UNG
UNGNatty's bullish close above resistance offers traders well defined risk. It looks like a reasonable 1:10 risk/reward entry here with a lower volume area. The ceiling with the "value area" appears to leave plenty of room to allow prices to continue into resistance. Volume looks good; however, cumulative buying looks weak. If it remains so prices will likely retreat. Trade with a plan and take profits into resistance. Never like holding the "widow maker" long.
Good luck!
NAT GAS "BUILDING ENERGY" $UNG $UGAZ $NG_FNEEDS TO STAY ABOVE THE "SAND BOX"
IF NOT ODDS FAVOR RETEST OF THE LOWS.
(1H) Bullish Bat and Eventual Double Top // IF=THEN ® AMEX:UNG
Eventual Bullish Bat pattern - it can act as trend continuation, or as trend change;
Safe Trades;
THE WEEK AHEAD -- FOMC, FOMC, FOMC; LONG VIX; OIL; EARNINGSHere's what I'm looking at for next week:
VIX/VIX PRODUCTS . VIX finished last week at 16.50. I will look at VIX/VIX product setups early next week depending how the "horse does at the gate" (Monday). If we see a tight range in the S&P like we did pre-Draghi in prepation for FOMC, VIX could drift go a little lower Monday through Wednesday, in which case I will want to use VIX, VIX, or UVXY to go "long volatility."
Index ETF's . There is little sense in selling April expiry premium here in broader index instruments with VIX the way it is. Brazil, oil/gas, and the gold space continue to have the volatility, but I'm already in all of the underlyings that have any juice in their options that are at 70+ implied volatility rank (UNG (covered call), EWZ (iron fly), GDXJ (short strangle), RIG (short strangle), GLD (credit spread), and XOP (short strangle) in those sectors.
If you look at SPY implied volatility month-to-month, it doesn't approach something "regular" until the June expiry (19.9%), so I may look to set up some small premium selling play in the June expiry on the possibility that low volatility sticks around for a period of time and to have something in the queue for that event. Trying to sell 45 DTE premium in the index ETF's in a period like we had last year between mid-March and late August was a total slog ... .
Oil . The 2016 high was set on 1/4 at 35.36 in USOIL. it tested the underside of that level Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday of last week and broke through it by a whopping .20 cents on Friday, so who knows whether that'll hold. If oil caves, the S&P will follow hard (the S&P currently has a .93 correlation with USOIL). However, oil has a tendency to enter fairly lengthy consolidative periods before moving directionally forward, so be prepared for oil to taunt you with both suggestions that it's going to break significantly higher and indications that it's going to totally implode ... .
If you're into trading spot forex, watch oil's effect on the petro currency USDCAD. The Loonie may get a double whammy from a cave in oil plus Fed tightening/dovish-hawkishness. The Loonie's entire strength profile from 2/11 is largely on the back of oil.
EURUSD. This is the strong/weak pair to watch post-Draghi and running up into FOMC. For me, this is not a pair I would mess around with "playing in the middle" between 1.08 and 1.10. As I did last year, I would wait for it to hit 1.14 and then go short if it's inclined to react to the upside on whatever FOMC says; otherwise, stay out. The fundamentals on this pair should be telling everyone to only short on strength (ECB easing; Fed tightening), as attempting to play the 200 pips between 1.08 and 1.10 has been and is likely to continue to be somewhat discouraging as it looks to find its footing in the larger range between 1.14 and near parity.
EARNINGS. Although the earnings season has been described as "over" for this quarter, there are a few issues that are still due to report that might be worth playing, assuming that the volatility is there: ORCL (Tuesday, after close), FDX (Wednesday after close), and ADBE (Thursday, after market close). As it stands right now, none of those meet my implied volatility rank rules (70th percentile plus), with all three of those having percentiles hovering around 50, but naturally that might change running up into the actual announcement.
UNG support on the RSI daily, plus divergence spottedI don't use divergence much but it's here for you to see. So there's positive divergence, but what's more important is that back in late 2015 the RSI daily down trend was broken. That spot where it was broken became support, so I drew a horizontal line at support. It's reaching this support line for the first time.
(Daily) US Natural Gas // The Shark // IF=THEN ®AMEX:UNG
Are the bulls tired of waiting...? $5.50 as ignition...
SHARK:
Point B:
61.8% XA
Point C:
113% to 161% AB
Point D:
161% to 224% BC
88.6% to 113% XC
Target:
38.2% to 100% CD
Safe Trades;
open.spotify.com
UNG -- COVERED CALL IDEATruth be told, I was burned somewhat by UNG this year, as I was expecting a seasonality bounce which has not come due to mild temperatures associated with El Nino. Moreover, in 20-20 hindsight, a debit spread was probably not the way to go due to inflexibility of the setup if you are just totally directionally wrong or if your timing as to the directionality is off.
In any event, and although volatility in the underlying has diminished somewhat since the making of a significant low around 7.00, there remains sufficient volatility in UNG to go covered call here.
The setup:
100 Shares UNG at 7.69
1 Feb 19 8 Short Call
Entire Package: 6.91 debit (meaning your break even for the setup is $6.91/share, excluding fees commissions)
Max Profit: $109 (if called away at $8)
Tips: Look to take off the entire setup in profit before expiry if profit approaches what you would get if called away. Roll out the short call to a later expiry if it is nearing worthless; look to roll to a strike that at least exceeds your cost basis in the underlying.
Meet the most obvious trade ever! Natural gasDouble gapping top in a short closing rally.
Makes it a very obvious re-short. Buy January 15, $8 PUTS at 0.15 each for maximum gain.
opcalc.com
And the sine said... NG Weekly*Drops Dishes* WAVES! The price action travels in waves! Now would be the time to applaud. Troglodytes.
Thank you @BattleAxe for jogging my memory.
Natural gas or oil provides more return in this recovery?One of the great feature I like with TradingView is the ability to compare different ticker via arithmetic addition/division/subtraction.
From here, I'm comparing between UNG and USO. Since both are directly related to energy, tough choice huh?
Charting it out helps a lot and we can see a clear breakout trend between the ratios!
Clearly Natural Gas (UNG) might possibility provide the best return for your money on energy as compared to Oil (USO) over the long run.
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** Note: USO have been severely under performing since 2008 after the recovery of oil price due to the price difference between each month's oil futures contract. It will not be a clear reflection of the actual market.
This is only if you're considering between USO or UNG. Try it out by charting other ETF/ETNs/stocks by yourself!
Taking a stab at Natural GasWeather, Trends, Flag pole formation point to more downside in November. Going to start a long position at $3.55, then add at $3.46, $3.55 and at 3.21 if it gets there. This is my first time trading Natural gas so wish me luck
$UNG $NGAS Its that timeSeasonal Play ..o durr, right ? it gets cold people need cheap heating with Natgas at 3.65 its a bargain right now. IMO , I almost feel like todays 19.10 and lower was the perfect entry and I chickened out,
options are cheap right now,
Nov 14 22.00 calls are trading at .16 just yesterday they were at .21 so $5 cheaper,
DEC 14 25 calls are trading at .24 slightly higher than yesterday go figure
How ever looking at this chart i set up there the trend channel that i set up with a few touches, but at the beginning of Nov 2013 there a clear signal IMHO !!
HAPPY Trading hoping to make these my last few trades of 2014,
The SPY and DIA are so unclear right now
The Price is Right for Natural GasFor detailed analysis, please see our blog post published on 8/10/14 and feel free to post a comment there: www.syncubate.com
As can be seen from the daily chart, UNG has fallen from just over $26 a share near the end of June to just under $22 a share at the close of trading on Friday. From the high point of this trending move lower, UNG has had a nearly 20% drop in price.
The ADX line has since topped out and is dropping on the daily time frame, indicating that the trending move lower may have abated for the time being. This is further confirmed by the recent spike of +DMI above -DMI, as the bulls begin to stand their ground.
The MACD has also crossed above the signal line, which is another sign that a push higher in price by the bulls may be impending at this point.
UNG - Bullish Case for the Energy SectorUNG has been consolidating for a few weeks long, which is normal after an explosive move to the upside. He have made higher highs and as long as we stay above 24.29, we stay bullish. A bullish move in Natural gas will be positive for oil and gas companies, especially the ones that are more gas focused. Today was a good entry for UNG. there is also a double bottom on the weekly chart for UNG and hence my bullish thesis. Unfortunately there is not enough data to see how UNG reacted to Double bottoms. But this is the lowest low UNG has seen and im Bullish on this commodity.
