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Natural Gas "It just Dawned on me"I was laying on my couch thinking about NG and wondering what in the hell is going on with it. Then it dawned on me. After years of a bear market for natural gas, We are in a corrective ABC pattern. DUH, right. So then I was wondering about the last month of this uptrend and how complicated it was and thought, what if we had an ending diagnol for the A wave and we are now in the B wave. When I drew it, I saw how this drop over the last few days now made sense. SO assuming the drop has completed, we should get a zig zag moving up and then another drop and then a larger C wave up to higher highs. I would not be surprised if the zig zag moves up to the decending trend line. This makes the most sense for me right now. So I am in UGAZ for now. GL
NYMEX:NGH2018Long
by SalN
1
Natural GasNatural gas is simply killing me. I left up the possible cycles just in case for some strange reason, NG dumps into mid January. But it sure does not look like its going to dump. It appears that we have started that winter rally. If this is the real winter rally, then a brief pullback would be a great opportunity to get back in this thing. NG left a large upper wick today so we will see what happens next week. I tried to apply wave analysis to NG but that looks to be a mistake. This has more to do with supply demand in cold weather. I am just going to watch this thing and see what happens to it if it does drop back to test that black trend line. If this is the start of the rally then that should last at least a month of huge gains.
NYMEX:NG1!
by SalN
1
NATGAS Bullish Once MoreNATGAS has has both a strong local and general double bottom and is looking to retest 3.0-3.1 and higher before it sees 2.5 again. Strong gap up over weekend was very predictable as is evidenced from my idea last week. With both strong fundamentals (bullish report) and strong technicals (respected double bottoms) shorts would be wise to wait and watch for a while. For those who are getting in late, UGAZ should still be a good buy come market open on Tuesday with a safe selling target of 3.05 (in the NATGAS index) or possibly even higher should we break into the fib channel at 3.1 or so. Stay safe and good luck! EDIT: Attached is an image of the local double bottom in case you can't see it because of my text bubble.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Bikko_Koiwai
Natural Gas "UGAZ DGAZ"SO we did fill the gap. I am thinking that we will touch that red line which corresponds to a couple bottoms last year. The question is whether or not we finally start the winter rally or simply set up to fill that last gap. Today a subscription that I get, had an update for XLR (the general energy ETF). Their chart showed the general energy fund dropping until January 18th. Before this came today, I was toying around with the cycle analysis tool and was trying to find a pattern in the cycles (if there were any). Not really an easy task with NG. BUT...I did have that tentative cycle showing a bottom on....coincidently....January 18th. That made me go HMMMM. Is NG going to have a very late winter rally. I think I will hold off on this trade and just watch the price action. If I am correct....THIS TIME....then NG could drop way down there and have a short by rapid winter rally. Perhaps that has something to do with the 10 to 1 reverse split for UGAZ coming up on the 20th. above is a longer term view of NG with my cycle analysis. It looks pretty fitting.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by SalN
9
What to do with NATGAS going forwardNATGASUSD Double top testing green fib chamber rejected and dropping to bottom of yellow fib chamber. While 2.5 or below is possible it looks as though a double bottom may form at around 2.583 or so matching up with the price in February. Looking for confirmation of a bounce before riding AMEX:UGAZ all the way back up to an almost guaranteed 3.0 or so. Be careful and take extra caution when trying to catch a falling knife. Look for confirmation of a double bottom and miss a little profit rather than miss the trend entirely and get cut. Tentative long if we bounce here. If there is no bounce we may be seeing just the start of a natural gas bear run.
OANDA:NATGASUSDLong
by Bikko_Koiwai
8
Natural Gas "Historical Evidence discovered"Yep. The title says it all. I have found evidence to support what I believe is future upward price movement over the next 2 months. After many many hours of exhaustive research, I can say with 100% certainty, backed up by years and years of historical data that......IT GETS COLD IN THE WINTER! Just some light humor. So I have two price targets for this upward move. This is not to be confused with what I think is going to happen by February (a much higher high at least $4.10), I'm talking short term...2 weeks from now before a decent pullback. The first is for Natural gas to reach the 100% measured move of "W" at $3.30, which happened in the beginning of November. There is a pretty good resistance level there as well. The 2nd price target, which is what I am hoping for and which makes a little more sense to me, is the 100% measured move of the first part of this current "Y" wave that began last week. That is the FIB that is colored purple. There is a gap to be filled there AND, a 50% typical correction for this WXY wave move would bring it down to retest the trend line and also stay within the yellow path. As far as how this would equate to UGAZ prices.....I really don't know yet. I watch the NG chart to get an idea of when we are close to a trend change for UGAZ. I will be watching the structure on the daily to try to figure out where we are in the wave count and weather or not we are close to a warm weather reversal. GL
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by SalN
13
NGAS Short Entry PlanI'm looking to short Natty Gas soon and need to see just a few more things before I'm satisfied. We formed a high-test on the monthly with May's close and that's awesome confirmation of the large weekly head and shoulder pattern. I'm now watching for a head and shoulder pattern on the daily and a pullback to the fibs for the right shoulder. That is where I'll look to enter. The dirty deets: Watching for a bounce off of the 200ema between now and friday to send price back up to the fibs and right shoulder area. I'm looking to enter in that area (drew ideal position setup) with around a 5:1 reward:risk ratio to Target #1. Target #1 sits at the key weekly November '16 low with Target #2 way down at the major March 16' low. It won't take too much effort to get to the first target, but the second target is going to take a bit more oomph. Just need to wait and see what price action develops once we reach that area to determine the probability of hitting that second target. For more in depth analysis and my price action based theory behind the trade checkout: patstrades.com
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by patrick186