Uber: Breaking out to a new rangeUber stands to benefit from possible recovery with positive vaccine news
after hitting our previous projection, yesterday Uber broke out into a new price range and on good volume - our next projection based on price structure and volatility is a measured move of ~$13 from a base of $46.5 -- takes us to $59.5
the confirmation we need is that with a pull back, Uber bulls manage to keep the stock above support at $51.50 to $52 -- i have marked the possible path in white - we'll see.
the weekly view supports this scenario with positive sentiment and an expanding buying pressure.
Uber
UBER - Rising WedgeThis usually occurs when a security’s price has been rising over time
The trend lines drawn above and below the price chart pattern can converge to help a trader or analyst anticipate a breakout reversal. While price can be out of either trend line, wedge patterns have a tendency to break in the opposite direction from the trend lines.
Therefore, rising wedge patterns indicate the more likely potential of falling prices after a breakout of the lower trend line. Traders can make bearish trades after the breakout by selling the security short or using derivatives such as futures or options, depending on the security being charted. These trades would seek to profit on the potential that prices will fall.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
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Airbnb (ABNB): Everything You Need to Know for the IPOAirbnb is an online rental marketplace for lodging, home stays, and tourism experiences.
The company does not own any real estate listings, but offers a platform through which people can take part in the sharing economy.
Airbnb announced its filing for an initial public offering (IPO) in August.
In this analysis, we’ll be going over everything investors need to know about the IPO, and my own insight on whether this is a golden opportunity.
Most of the information provided below is based on the S1 Airbnb Submitted to the SEC.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is meant for educational and entertainment purposes only.
Business Model
- Airbnb connects hosts who are willing to provide room, with guests
- Airbnb profits from charging a service fee to both the host and the guest
- While it initially started off as hosts providing bedrooms, the company has managed to find and expand on different types of lodges.
- Airbnb is well known for its systematic operations; they have a unique guest/host review system, rules regarding cancellations and deposits, and is oriented and focused on building a community.
Counterparts Cases
- Airbnb’s counterparts include companies like Expedia group (EXPE) and Booking Holdings (BKNG)
- It’s important to take into consideration the growing competitiveness within the booking market.
- Unlike Airbnb, both Expedia group and Booking Holdings are reporting solid earnings as their operating profits increase yoy.
- TripAdvisor (TRIP), which reported $156m in revenue for 2019 and an operating profit of $18.7m, while small, is another example of companies competing against Airbnb
- However, to be fair, these companies also all fell victim to the Covid-19 pandemic.
IPO Information
- The company will be listed on the NASDAQ exchange under the ticker ABNB
- The specific date of the IPO and price per share is yet to be officially announced.
Financials
- Due to Covid-19, the company’s revenue and profitability plummeted in 2020.
- Q2 2020 revenue was $350m, which is a 67% compared to Q2 2019, which recorded a quarterly revenue of over a billion.
- These numbers are less than half of the reported revenue for Q1 2020, of $842m
- As a result, the company’s valuation dropped from $31b to $18b.
- The fact that the company is not profitable yet is also quite fatal.
- In 2017 and 2018, there was a lot of hype around the company as they showed positive numbers for their EBITDA (earnings before interests, taxes, depreciation, and amortization)
- But, the company has been reporting inconsistent revenue ever since, and their sales and marketing
- As of September 30 2020, the company has $2.6b in cash, which is more than numbers reported for cash and cash equivalents in 2019 and 2018.
- Nonetheless, this is way below their short term net liabilities of $4.38b, which is considered a warning sign in terms of financial stability.
- Additionally, they have $1.8b in long term debt as well.
- Taking all of this into consideration, we could make an educated guess that Airbnb is trying to seek for funds through this IPO.
- It has already undergone its Series F investments, and is a unicorn company (a private company with a valuation over $1b), which makes it difficult to receive any further meaningful investments.
Covid-19 Impact
- Airbnb is part of the industry that was arguably most heavily affected by the Covid-19 pandemic
- They had a net 4.1m cancellations in March, when fear regarding Covid-19 peaked.
- I’ve mentioned this in a previous analysis, but Covid-19 has fundamentally changed the way we live forever
- As a result, Airbnb’s goal of creating a community of hosts and guests has faced a huge obstacle, as people prefer to stay at hotels, which involve lower risk of Covid-19 infections.
- Thus, whether people would want to travel via Airbnb after the pandemic is solved still remains extremely murky, as clear solutions to the current situation are yet to be proposed.
- Unlike other large tech companies, Airbnb lacks the cash to endure a long phase of hardship.
- Due to the impact of Covid-19, the company has laid off over 1,900 employees to cut costs.
Historical Cases
- We have seen other companies within the sphere of the sharing economy take part in IPOs that have failed miserably
- Companies such as Uber Technologies (UBER) and Lyft (LYFT) are prime examples. (Refer to the charts on the right)
- They were provided multiples way above their actual value, and their stock prices eventually fell way below the IPO price.
- WeWork, once valued at $47b, failed its IPO due to massive debt and shaky corporate structures, and is now valued at $2.9b
- Given past cases of other tech companies within the realm of the sharing economy having undergone failed IPOs due to overvalued multiples, it’s important to consider why Airbnb might be exempt from this case.
Mike’s Insight
In summary, while Airbnb’s listing is arguably the most important IPO of 2020, investors need to consider all possible factors before participating in the IPO. Its growing number of users suggest that the business is on the right track over the long run, but is faced with a serious external risk that the company has no control over. As this risk extends throughout time, the more damaging it is to the fundamentals of the business, thus providing room for investors to reconsider the proper valuation of the company. In my humble opinion, given that the company goes public at a $30b valuation, I think we’d see prices drop sharply after the IPO. Nonetheless, I could consider adding it to my portfolio as we see clearer signs of the world recovering from the coronavirus.
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Uber: Grab some butter, Uber is toastIn the near term, expect a correction that might dip as low as the bottom price target followed a consolidation centering on the higher target of $36.
After Uber has finished its correction, expect it to target $60+.
Basis for analysis
Uber has finished or is finishing an Elliott Wave cycle Wave 1 following a leading diagonal structure. As depicted, the wave comprises a primary, uptrending ABC structure consisting of two minor, uptrending ABC structures and an intermediate, downtrending WXY structure. Also, Uber continues to be Overbought.
Uber: Coffee! Watch out for continuation.It's been exactly 1 year -to the day- since I published the last analysis, so here is to the anniversary .
UBER saw a huge breakout after Weekly Lower Highs :
After the breakout, on the smaller timeframe now, we're building a nice C&H pattern with potential for bull continuation.
Fundamentals: Think about which companies got disproportionately punished by Covid, which under normal circumstances is a standard on your home screen?
=> As Chamath Palihapitiya put it nicely just recently: If you're not ready to invest in the companies on your home screen, then what else?
MTRXAbsolutely incredible run!
Loop has delivered some fabulous news to the public which helped the pump but could not sustain it. Looking to retrace to .76-.66 and then to re-enter my position. Great team, great product, cant get to attached to a stock but this company is moving.
VANCOUVER, BC, November 18, 2020, Loop Insights Inc. (MTRX:TSXV) (RACMF:OTCQB) (the “Company” or “Loop”), a provider of contactless solutions and artificial intelligence (“AI”) to drive real-time insights, enhanced customer engagement and automated venue tracing to the brick and mortar space, is pleased to announce the Company has been selected to join the Impact Radius Marketplace (“Impact”), providing Loop with the opportunity to connect with and leverage marketing opportunities with Impact global brand partners such as Fanatics, Uber (UBER:NYSE), Nike (NKE:NYSE), Adidas (ADS:ETR), Airbnb, Levi’s (LEVI:NYSE) and many more.
IMPACT RADIUS IS THE GLOBAL LEADER IN PARTNERSHIP AUTOMATION MANAGING OVER $50 BILLION IN E-COMMERCE SALES
Source: Investorsupdate
LONG LYFT POTENTIAL 30% UPSIDELYFT starting to move after a POST IPO dump.
Looks good on the long side taking into consideration UBERs recent move above its IPO level.
Entering the Food business, I believe further government regualtion will be good for the stock.
Potential double bottom, trade into $50 resistance level.
Uber (UBER): BUY at $40 - Elliot WaveUber (UBER) seems like is currently correcting at the 4th wave of its 5 wave structure, it's likely to correct to the 0.382 retracement level of its 3rd wave to $40 ish before UBER shoot up to its 5th wave target, also, we do have the previous pivot high at $40 as the support which was all the way from June. Thus, look for a correction to $40 ish and add for $55 ish target price, thanks.
UBER Trade Update (3rd part scale in )Our UBER Leaps has gone ITM we are updating the current breakout pattern. To the minor time frame, a minor corrective wave (ii) into 41-43 level before UBER sets up for another run completing an impulsive 5 waves higher into 2021. Will be looking to establish more longs if UBER drops into 41 with some Leaps.
UBER Too Far From SupportUBER is very far from its support zone. With 2 sell signals from Divergence+ ( so accurate it cost a subscription ) and the support zone being at 41.82 a share. We can expect the stock to fall below my target price of $45 a share this week while staying above support at a healthy price.
Uber: get ready for an exciting ride!UBER has been pushing for a breakout for sometime now. check out our previous posts linked below.
this week had couple of great signs (of strength) - the reaction to the California law suit and the reaction to qtrly earnings - but even before that, price action indicated the persistence of UBER bulls and the "drive" to move upward.
what the chart tells us?
we have a positive momentum that is still building (weekly) and a good buy pressure/demand - this set up is more for the mid to long term (6 months+) , and as long as UBER bulls can defend the new price range they just gained, and stay above $40 we're looking at a possible continuation to the upside. if the move up materializes, our next target is $47 then a calculated projection to the $53 - $55 range. a possible ~23% upside.
(visit this post in future and use the "Load New Bars" tool to see how accurate were these projections)
Note: we need to be extra cautious with trading these days - everyone is looking at riding the next "Zoom" with a lot of Pump & Dump going on - and the market is in a volatile phase - please manage your risk accordingly!
best of luck,
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How do i read this chart setup
we look at the price action (top chart) and recent key S/R price levels, plus the insights from 3 key elements: momentum, sentiment and buy/sell pressure
- the calculated short-term price momentum is shown by the UTO blue/amber line
- the long term sentiment is represented by the UTO Green/Red area graph - the demand/supply pressure is expressed by the v.viewer green/red area graph - let's call these "the context"
How do i trade this chart setup
- the Basic rule: nothing can predict what happens tomorrow - but if no external catalysts interfere, it's *highly probable* that a price move with strong momentum that's in alignment with the broader context (sentiment and buy/sell pressure) would continue in the same direction (e.g., a breakout).