Why TESLA is STILL heading LOWERHi Traders, Investors and Speculators of Charts📈📉
A quick analysis today on Tesla and why I'm still expecting the price of TSLA to head lower.
After a nasty Head and Shoulders Pattern on the monthly, TSLA has reached a selling climax and an automatic rally afterwards (which always follows a SC). However, if we look at the Wyckoff Method schematics, this is not yet the bottom. The bottom is expected to happen during phase B, which is the phase we're about to head into.
ST will always be LOWER than SC, therefore there will be another chance to accumulate TESLA at a lower entry.
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NASDAQ:TSLA
Tesla Motors (TSLA)
TESLA The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for TESLA is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 235.54
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 220.16
My Stop Loss - 245.52
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Tesla Ready to Invest Up to $2 Bln to Build India FactoryTesla (TSLA.O) is ready to invest up to $2 billion to set up a factory in India if the government cuts import duty on its vehicles to 15% for the first two years of operations.
The Elon Musk-led electric vehicle (EV) maker is willing to invest up to $500 million if the government approves the reduced duty for 12,000 vehicles and up to $2 billion if the concession is for 30,000 vehicles.
The government is examining the viability of Tesla's proposal to invest $2 billion but wants to reduce the number of cars imported on a lower duty, compared to Tesla's proposal.
Price Momentum
TSLA is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
What does this mean?
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
AI-Driven Analysis: TSLA's Possible Outlook and Tactical EntriesDear Esteemed Members of the TradingView Community,
I n our continuous pursuit of precision, we've harnessed the analytical power of cutting-edge AI technology, utilizing a harmonious blend of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Seasonal Decomposition of Time Series (STL) methodologies to decode the market trends from June 26, 2023, to November 4, 2023.
O ur AI indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment in this time frame, which traditionally corresponds to a sequence of lower lows. The chart exhibits a prominent white trendline, gracefully outlining the descending support trajectory of this bearish trend and pinpointing potential regions for the emergence of new lower lows. Should this trendline remain intact, a target price range for short positions spans from $175 to $195.
F or those contemplating entry into a short position, we suggest closely monitoring the nearest resistance levels. In bearish trends, historical support levels often transition into formidable resistance points. To map these potential hurdles, the AI has nimbly employed the K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) algorithm, highlighting two key resistance zones: "Resistance 1" and "Resistance 2." Resistance 1, marked by the vibrant red line, stands as the immediate barricade, while Resistance 2, also vividly red, awaits in the wings should Resistance 1 be breached. These insights have inspired us to craft two scenarios for your strategic consideration.
I n Scenario 1, we envisage Resistance 1 rejecting the price action, ushering in a descent towards the coveted target price zone. In Scenario 2, an alternate narrative unfolds, where the bulls surge past Resistance 1, eventually carving out a consolidation phase between the two resistance lines. Ultimately, this tactical hiatus is followed by an ebbing of market enthusiasm, permitting the anticipated descent into the target zone.
A perceptive examination of the volume reveals an uptick in selling pressure on TSLA, commencing on October 17, 2023. The red volume candles in the white circle signify an influx of market sell transactions, surpassing the norm. This pattern aligns with a prevailing bearish sentiment, setting the stage for a potential decline in keeping with our bearish expectations.
W hile on the indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears. It's a tool often wielded together with others by seasoned traders. Although we've already discussed various indicators, it's worth casting an eye over the RSI. The RSI is signaling a persistent selling inclination in the market, displaying no discernible signs of waning. When considered in conjunction with the volume data and AI-derived insights, it further bolsters the case for impending bearish continuations.
tl;dr version:
T o sum up, here's a snapshot of the elements of our analysis:
Position: Short
Trend: Bearish
Entry: Near Resistance 1 or Resistance 2 (depicted in red)
Target Price Zone: $175-$195
Stop Loss: Positioned above the noted resistances
Indicators: ARIMA, STL, K-NN, Volume Candle Analytics, Trendline Analytics, RSI
H owever, please be mindful that this analysis is not an investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The trading parameters should be in line with your unique risk tolerance. It's crucial to undertake your individual research and remember to implement a range of safeguards, such as Stop Loss, Trail Profit, Target Price, Trade Timeout, and Liquidity Check. The ever-fluctuating market can often spring surprises, venturing into scenarios that may differ significantly from those outlined in this analysis.
Warm regards,
Ely
TESLA Bullish long-term if this level breaks, targeting $365.We have presented our short-term view on Tesla (TSLA) 3 weeks ago (see chart below) when we issued a buy signal on the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) bottom pattern that transitioned into a Channel Up, similar to the Aug 18 - Sep 15 bullish leg, that is very near to hit the $250 target as part of the Lower High formation on the 4-month Channel Down:
On the 1W time-frame, we see that the bullish trend of 2023 is still restricted by a long-term Lower Highs trend-line that started on the week of November 01 2021, which was the All Time High for the stock. If this Lower Highs trend-line (can be also viewed as the top of a Channel Down that only broke during the Dec 2022 - Jan 2023 market bottom formation) breaks, then Tesla most likely restores the bullish trend on the long-term.
It is very likely to do so immediately in the coming weeks as the correction since July can be interpreted as the Right Shoulder of a very wide Inverted Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern. If symmetry indeed exists between the two Shoulders, then Tesla aims at $365 long-term.
Since however we like to minimize risks at Tradingshot and take one target at a time, we will initially target $295, which would make a +52.28% rise from the October 30 Low, the lowest registered rise since the Bear Cycle started, and then buy after a pull-back.
Note that the 1W RSI already bounced on the Buy Zone that only failed once to give a rally, during the Dec 2022 - Jan 2023 market bottom formation, while the 1W MACD is close to forming a Bullish Cross, when all previous (three in total) occurrences delivered rallies of over +50%.
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BTC | Let NDQ Go Bust!Bitcooooooins... UP!
In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out...
2022 will be marked as the worst year "ever" for equities (except The Great Depression of course). Money got much more precious last year compared to equities. Just by having money, you got "richer" last year. So compared to money, equities did get worse.
Items like Bitcoin suffered even worse. A 73% drop compared to SPX is a monumental way to break the crypto mania.
Bitcoin has been an over-leveraged, perma-bull trade-able item.
I don't know if it is a currency, a commodity or something else, so I call it a simple item.
The majority of Bitcoin's gains were thanks to derivatives (trading).
The same happens in Equities, but not to such an extent. NDQ is another perma-bull market full of stocks like AAPL and TSLA (everyones' favorites for some reason)
Bitcoin is on a whole new level of rapidness...
However, there is an exponential cousin to NDQ. That is SQQQ.
So how does it compare to NDQ? Since SQQQ is basically 1/QQQ, we will plot the QQQ*SQQQ chart to see the outcome.
This reminds me of the diminishing nature BTC_ADDRESSES showed.
We can raise SQQQ to the 0.2 exponent to bring it down to reality.
SQQQ is moving at the 5th exponent of QQQ. Incredible speeds really...
So how do these two lightnings (1/SQQQ and Bitcoin) compare??
I told you that the answer is not straight-forward.
And some short technical analysis:
This chart above describes the popular over-leveraged period when everyone traded Bitcoin.
There is a longer-term ticker showing the entire history of Bitoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD )
It shows us yet another perspective:
If these charts are true and breakout as intended, what could this mean for equities? Just how big of a bubble are equities in?
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
PS. The popular knowledge is not the truth, it is just a famous lie.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) Next Major ResistanceKey Takeaway
1. Tesla’s stock price climbed higher from the $195.00 support.
2. A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near $245 on the 4-hour chart.
3. The bulls might struggle to clear the $245 and $250 resistance levels.
Tesla Stock Technical Analysis
After a steady decline, Tesla stock price (NASDAQ: TSLA) found support near the $195.00 zone. A base was formed, and the price started a fresh increase above $220.
The price started a decent increase above the $225 level. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last main decline from the $278 swing high to the $194 low. The bulls were able to pump the price above the $235 level. However, they are now facing a major hurdle near the $245 and $250 levels. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near $245 on the same chart.
The trend line is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last main decline from the $278 swing high to the $194 low. A clear move above the trend line and then a break above the $250 resistance might spark bullish moves.
The next major resistance is near the $275 level. A clear move above $275 could open the doors for a move toward the $288 level. In the stated case, the bulls could even attempt a move toward $300.
Conversely, Tesla’s stock price might face rejection near $245 or $250. If there is a fresh decline, the price might find support near $225.
The next main support on the downside is near the $215 level. Any more losses could resend the price toward $205 support. The major breakdown support reclines at $195.
Opening (IRA): TSLA January 19th 200 Covered Call... for a 191.76 debit.
Metrics:
Cost Basis/Break Even: 191.76
Max Profit: 8.24 ($824)
Max Profit ROC %-age: 4.3%
50% of Max: 4.12 ($412)
50 Max ROC %-age: 2.1%
Delta/Theta: 23.45/12.70
Here, selling the -75 delta call against a one lot in one of the higher IV single names (currently at 50.5%) to emulate a 25 delta short put, but with slightly better profit potential and a better break even than selling the same delta'd put outright. Naturally, I wish the underlying was weaker and the IV higher, but you can't have everything ... .
The 25 delta short put at the 205 would bring in 7.25 or so in credit at the moment, with a 197.75 break even. This is relative to the maximum profit potential of the monied covered call with the same delta metrics with a max profit potential of 8.24 (almost $100 more) and an even lower break even some 6.00 below where the short put break even would set up.
Naturally, this only makes sense in a cash secured environment where the buying power effect of the naked 205 short put would be 205 - 7.25 or 197.75 and the monied covered call -- 191.76 (that's 19.8 and 19.2k, respectively). On margin, the buying power effect of the 205 short put would be substantially less, which is basically why you'd stick with the naked short put in the vast majority of instances in a margin account.
As far as trade management is concerned, I'll be looking to take profit at 50% of max and/or look at rolling the short call down intra-expiry (e.g., from the 200 to the 195) or down and out (e.g., from the Jan 200 to the Feb 195) should my break even at 191.76 be tested, thus lowering my break even and reducing my cost basis.
TESLA: Valuation, Strategy, and Future ProspectsNavigating the Turbulent Tesla Stock: Valuation, Strategy, and Future Prospects
The Tesla stock has been on a rollercoaster ride in 2023, oscillating between $108 and $293 before settling around $215. This volatility is reflective of Tesla's adjusted strategy in the electric vehicle (EV) market. Once celebrated for its industry-leading margins, Tesla's pivot to capturing a larger market share through lower-priced vehicles has sparked a reevaluation among investors.
Historically, Tesla's superior margins set it apart in the automotive industry, driving substantial growth and profits. However, the shift in strategy, marked by competitive pricing to secure a larger market share, has led investors to reconsider Tesla's valuation, currently standing at nearly $700 billion. This figure dwarfs the combined valuation of traditional automakers like Toyota, Ford, and General Motors.
The debate centers on whether Tesla's premium valuation is justified, especially considering the change in market dynamics. With increasing input costs and a reduction in vehicle prices, Tesla has relinquished its crown in terms of gross margins. Critics argue that Tesla, trading at 69 times trailing earnings compared to Toyota's 9.1 and Ford's 6.4, needs a significant correction to align with industry peers.
On the buy side, proponents argue for a longer-term perspective. Tesla's management contends that recent price cuts are temporary adjustments necessitated by challenges in a high-interest-rate environment and not indicative of a fundamental strategy shift. However, this assertion is met with skepticism, with critics urging investors to focus on Tesla's current operations rather than speculative future developments.
The impact of potential interest rate cuts remains a pivotal factor. If Tesla's margins rebound, supporters see validation of their optimism. However, skeptics maintain their concerns, emphasizing the need for a cautious approach.
Amid these debates, a "hold" stance is suggested for investors. While short-term margin decline is acknowledged, confidence in Tesla's product superiority persists. The anticipation is that price adjustments will be well-received once interest rates decline. It is crucial to note that Tesla's promising pipeline of products, including full self-driving technology and diverse car models, is yet to be fully realized and should be approached with measured optimism.
Tesla's stock has historically sparked divided opinions, and with skeptics gaining ground in 2023, the debate has become more balanced. The trajectory of Tesla's stock price hinges significantly on its gross margins, with any further decline likely to exert downward pressure. Conversely, if margins show improvement in 2024, the prospect of Tesla approaching a $1 trillion valuation should not come as a surprise. Investors are advised to closely monitor these dynamics and make informed decisions based on both short-term challenges and long-term potential.