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Tesla Motors (TSLA)

A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: living in interesting times We reflect on the week that was and where the US equity markets stole the show, with new highs in the S&P500, and the NAS100 outperforming all major equity markets. A.I names went on a tear on Friday, where notably Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD felt the love. With 16% of the S&P500 market cap reporting this week, earnings and corporate outlooks will play a greater role in the price action – it is hard to be short these markets given the upbeat flow but it’s hard to chase as well. Tesla and Netflix will be the trader favourites this week, with the options markets implying moves (on the day of reporting) of -/+ 5.4% and 7.5% respectively. Tesla needs to pull something out of the bag to turn sentiment around and we see price having lost 20% in the past 14 days. Netflix comes off the back of a 16.1% rally on the day of reporting Q323 numbers, so longs will be hoping for something similar, to take price above $500. A daily close below the 50-day MA and I’d be exiting longs. Conversely, the HK50 and CHINAH were savaged by over 5% and shorts continue to be the play, although a surprise cut to the 1 & 5-year Prime Rate would cause a decent reversal higher. Pushback from several central bankers on the start point and extent of rate cuts (priced into swaps markets) caused front-end bond yields to move higher last week, with the market reevaluating whether March is indeed the start date for many central banks to start a cutting cycle. In the case of the Fed, the implied probability has fallen to 50%, and this pricing should hold firm until we see core PCE print later in the week – The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies (and vice versa). The USD was the best performing G10 currency last week but with the ECB meeting in play this week, there are reasons to think EURUSD could push back into the 1.0950/70 area. The NZD gets close attention given the Q4 CPI print due and we’re seeing signs of diverging paths between the RBA and RBNZ in market pricing – looking for NZDUSD shorts on a momentum move through 0.6100 and AUDNZD longs at current spot levels, adding on a close through the 200-day MA. The flow and set-up in gold is a little messy and the price is chopping about – no real directional bias in the near term and would look at selling rallies on the week into $2055 and buying dips into $2000. While Nat Gas is getting good attention given price is in freefall, Crude is also on the radar with rallies recently sold into $75.20 and dips bought at $70 – A break on either side of that range could be meaningful. Politics also comes into focus with the New Hampshire REP primary held on Tuesday – it won’t be a market event but could pull Trump one step closer to becoming the REP nominee, a fate most fully expect. Good luck to all. Marquee economic data for traders to navigate: • China 1 & 5-year Loan Prime Rate – After the PBoC surprised and left the Medium-Lending Facility (MLF) rate unchanged last week the market now assumes the PBoC will also leave the 1 & 5-year prime rate unchanged at 4.2% & 3.45% respectively. The CHINAH was the weakest major equity market last week (-6.5% wow) and could revisit the October 2023 lows unless we see something far more definitive from the Chinese authorities. • BoJ meeting (23 Jan no set time) – this should be a low vol affair, where expectations for policy change at this meeting are incredibly low, and one would be highly surprised if the BoJ lift rates out of negative territory. Consider the BoJ will provide new CPI and GDP forecasts at this meeting, and they could be very telling of the future need to move away from a negative rate setting. • NZ Q4 CPI (24 Jan 08:45 AEDT) – the market sees Q4 CPI running at 0.5% QoQ / 4.7% YoY (from 5.6%. This is a clear risk for NZD exposures, where the outcome could see the market questioning if the RBNZ cut before/later than current pricing (in swaps) to start easing in May with 91bp of cuts priced by year-end. I like AUDNZD upside on growing central bank policy divergence. • EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (24 Jan 20:00 AEDT) – the market sees both surveys modestly improving at 44.8 (from 44.4) and 49.0 (48.8) respectively. A services PMI read above 50 would likely promote EUR buying. • UK S&P manufacturing and services PMI (24 Jan 20:30 AEDT) – The consensus is that we see the manufacturing diffusion index improving a touch to 46.7 (from 46.2), while services should grow at a slower pace at 53.0 (53.4). GBPUSD is carving out a range of 1.2800 to 1.2600 and I’m happy to lean into these levels for now. • US S&P global manufacturing and services PMI (25 Jan 01:45 AEDT) – the market looks for the manufacturing index to come in at 47.5 (from 47.9) and services at 51.0 (51.4). A services PMI print below 50 could cause some gyrations in the USD and equity. • Norges Bank meeting (25 Jan 20:00 AEDT) – The Norwegian central bank will almost certainly leave interest rates will stay unchanged at 4.5%. The market prices the first cut from the Norges Bank in June, with 107bp of cuts priced this year. • Bank of Canada meeting (25 Jan 01:45 AEDT) – the market prices no chance of action at this meeting. The first cut from the BoC is priced in April with 101bp of cuts priced this year, so USDCAD (and the CAD crosses) tone of the statement. • Japan Tokyo CPI (26 Jan 10:30 AEDT) – the market looks for headlines CPI to come in at 2% (from 2.4%), and super core at 3.4% (3.5%). The JP CPI print would need to miss/beat by some margin to cause a move in the JPY given the print is seen so soon after the BoJ meeting. • ECB meeting (26 Jan 00:15 AEDT) – the market ascribes no chance of a cut at this meeting, but the ECB will provide new growth and inflation forecasts. Recent communication from multiple ECB members suggests a growing consensus for a cut in June, although EU swaps pencil in the first cut in April (priced at 82%), with 136bp of cuts priced by December. • US core PCE inflation (27 Jan 00:30 AEDT) – the median estimate is for headline PCE to come in at 0.2% QoQ / 2.6% (unchanged) and core at 0.2% QoQ / 3% YoY (from 3.2%). US swaps put the probability of a cut in the March FOMC at 50%, so the PCE inflation data could influence that pricing and by extension the USD. New Hampshire (NH) REP Primary (23 Jan) – Donald Trump is leading Nikki Haley in the polls by 15ppt in NH, with Trump picking up votes with Vivek Ramaswamy recently exiting the race, while Nikki Haley is benefiting from Chris Christie’s recent departure. Haley must win here or come very close, or her chances of becoming the REP nominee drop sharply. There is talk that Haley may drop out after NH if she doesn’t come close to gaining the most votes in NH, although she may still run in the South Carolina Primary (24 Feb) given it’s her home state – either way, the race for the REP nominee could essentially be over depending on the outcome of the NH primary. Polls close at 8pm EST, so we should know the outcome shortly after that. US earnings – GE, Procter & Gamble, IBM (24 Jan after-market), Netflix (24 Jan 08:00 AEDT), Tesla (24 Jan after-market), Visa, Amex, Intel
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by Pepperstone
TESLA Set To Grow! BUY! My dear friends, TESLA looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 212.19 pivot level. Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market. Goal - 228.50 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AnabelSignals
1
TESLA: New long term uptrend starting. $600 end of year possibleTesla has turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 27.952, MACD = -6.270, ADX = 56.430) and crossed under the 1W MA200 for the first time since October 30th. Even though further decline up until the Fed Meeting (January 31st) is possible, on a wider perspective, this is a long term buy opportunity in disguise. Why? Because the stock's Channel Down since July is repeating the same pattern of April-November 2016, which was eventually a Bullish Flag. The chart speaks for itself, they both started very low but grew exponentially on a parabolic curve, which after topping, it pulled back to the 1W MA200. After the Bullish Flag, Tesla hit the -0.118 Fibonacci extension seven months later. The 1W RSI patterns are equally identical. It is therefore more than realistic to expect a test of the new -0.118 Fibonacci level by the end of the year (TP = 600.00). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:TSLA
by InvestingScope
1
TSLA: Is it Oversold?TSLA shares have lost their most important support level, around $230, and we are getting close to our next support, around $206, and such a move was detailed in our last public analysis, the link to which is below this post, as always. As we can see, TSLA shares have consistently failed to react around their support levels, showing great weakness, and so far, we don't see any reaction that would justify a recovery, or that could trigger a bullish move. The RSI is at low levels, below the 30% line, while it lost the 50 and the 200-period moving averages – however, there is no Death Cross yet. What’s more, TSLA has been dropping, losing all of its support levels, without any sign of struggle. A typical crash. It's a fact that the stock is well discounted, in oversold territory. Whether this is a reason for a bullish reaction is anyone's guess. The next big catalyst will be next week's results release. S ince we're approaching a critical support zone, and with the sell-off theoretically exhausted, this could be a promising turning point. Another important question is for how long will TSLA remain detached from the broad market? The indices are clearly bullish, and they have been for a while. Tech stocks are performing well, and the M7 are looking great compared to TSLA. It all depends on how TSLA is going to react now that it is close to the $206 support. Remember, always wait for confimation on the price. Any bullish reaction could trigger a short-term bounce to higher levels, the problem is that the mid-term trend is bearish, and it would be important to se TSLA breaking the 21 ema on the daily chart, along with the $230 resistance, to reverse this bearish sentiment. Only then, I’ll see a technical reason that could convince me of a better recovery – otherwise, we may see just a Dead Cat Bounce. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to follow me for more analysis like this. All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
6
RIVN Is Rivian the next TSLA?Yesterday, I observed some unusual blocks of calls in the options chain expiring on Feb 23, following the earnings release. One of the most substantial positions was in the $20 strike price call, with options traders paying $1.7 million in premium. Listening to analysts, some mentioned they expect a 'TSLA Model 3 moment' from RIVN as well. In addition to Amazon, which has agreed to purchase 100,000 delivery vans from Rivian, AT&T is set to acquire its electric vans and R1 vehicles in a new pilot program starting in early 2024. On the other hand, the CEO stated that he anticipates Rivian reaching a break-even point on each EV built by the end of this year. We will likely hear more about this on the earnings call. I am extremely bullish on Rivian's upcoming earnings release!
NASDAQ:RIVNLong
by TopgOptions
SHORT | TSLA NASDAQ:TSLA TP1: 230$ TP2: 212$ EMA Crossover: The EMA9 crossing below the EMA20 can be a bearish signal, indicating that the short-term momentum is declining relative to the longer-term momentum. This might suggest a potential downtrend. Current Trend: The chart shows a recent bearish movement with the last few candles trending downward and closing below both EMAs. Support Levels: There are trend lines drawn that appear to act as support levels. The first trend line, if extended, may provide future support around the price level of 230 USD. Resistance Levels: The EMA lines, especially the EMA20, may act as resistance levels for any potential upward price movement. Bollinger Bands: The price is moving closer to the lower Bollinger Band, which might indicate an oversold condition. If the price touches or dips below the lower band, some traders might expect a rebound. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is around 37.00, which is closer to the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests that the stock may be becoming oversold, and there might be potential for a price reversal if other conditions align. Recent Performance: The most recent candlestick shows a significant decrease in price with a relatively large body, which suggests strong selling pressure.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by shkspr
3
$TSLA Tesla Parallel Down Trend Continues In a technical analysis focused on Tesla's parallel downtrend below the 50-day moving average (MA), we're examining the stock's price movement concerning its short-term moving average. The 50-day MA is often used to gauge the intermediate-term trend. If Tesla is in a parallel downtrend below the 50-day MA, it suggests that the stock's recent price movements are consistently lower than this moving average. Traders and investors may interpret this as a bearish signal, indicating potential weakness in the short-term trend. Key points to consider: 1. **Price Movement Below 50-Day MA:** Tesla's stock prices are consistently trading below the 50-day MA. 2. **Lower Highs and Lower Lows:** Within this downtrend, you'd likely observe a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downward trajectory. 3. **Support and Resistance Levels:** The 50-day MA could act as a dynamic resistance level, with the stock struggling to move above it. Meanwhile, parallel trendlines may define the channel within which the downtrend is occurring. 4. **Volume Analysis:** It's crucial to assess trading volume accompanying the downtrend. An increase in volume during declines could signal stronger selling pressure. As always, remember that technical analysis is just one tool, and it's essential to consider other factors and perform a comprehensive analysis before making any trading decisions. If you have specific data points or a particular time frame you'd like me to focus on, feel free to provide more details.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by AlgoTradeAlert
2
Lucid Motors Liquidity GapIt would appear that LUCID GROUP is facing a sell off based on bad new, dilution of shares, lack of consumer demand. However, based on technical, it would appear to be a very aggressive sell-off it was a sell-off. Not beneficial to not allow for market to recover in regards to liquidity. Based on the aggressive downside moves, the probability of a cat bounce appears very high and I am honestly amazed at the open interest on puts that could look to be burnt. 3$ options expiring this week are trading at $.08 a contract at the moment and if there is any level of volatility to the bull side, the out of the money 3$ strike will flip into the money and dominoing into an extreme level of gamma exposure on the short side. People shorting need to close their position at some point, like also contributing to the large put open interest which could be contracts shorted with shorted equity.
NASDAQ:LCIDLong
by kibakilla33
2
Tesla: It's time to turn around🔄Tesla has fallen sharply in recent days and has now reached more or less the levels at which we expect the low of the blue wave (ii). Accordingly, our primary expectation is that the price will soon reverse and continue to rise - we expect it to rise above the $258.74 mark. Only the 35% probable alternative would shift this reversal into the future. This scenario comes into effect on a drop below $193.81 and still sees the price in the magenta wave alt. (ii).
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by MarketIntel
$TSLA's $207.50 Price Target for a BounceIt's not looking too good for NASDAQ:TSLA holders right now. TSLA has 6 rejections off the yellow resistance line and has been dropping rapidly after the most recent rejection. The green trendline ($207.50) is a key support level on the way down, and there is likely to be a dead cat bounce there before further decline. For now, $207.50 is my short term price target for a bounce. I think NASDAQ:TSLA would be a bit oversold, so there is some potential for a long trade setup. However, TSLA is likely to underperform with its upcoming Jan. 24 earnings report. The forecast is higher than the previous forecast, which TSLA missed. I think there will be more pain ahead after a bounce off the green support line with some more downside in 2024.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by realchartchamp
TESLA Set To Grow! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for TESLA below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 218.79 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 240.72 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by AnabelSignals
4
TSLA Caught in Vortex of Conflicting TechnicalsPrimary Chart : TSLA's 2D Price Chart with .618 Fibonacci Retracement of Decline from All-Time High to Jan. 2023 Low and Various Degrees of Trend Represented by Conflicting Channels SUMMARY: 1. TSLA's technicals are unclear and conflicting. The trend from the 2021 all-time high remains downward until broken. The trend from the January 2023 low remains upward but somewhat choppy and unstable. The trend from the July 2023 high remains choppy and downward until broken. 2. Institutional buying into year end may be supportive of prices, allowing short-term traders to buy dips to well-defined support / risk levels into early January 2024. Until more structural change occurs providing more clarity, it's difficult to have confidence in any trend other than the shortest ones. 3. Once the next multi-month trend move occurs, some may look back and say that its was obvious and inevitable, offering post hoc arguments based on data that can be manipulated to support opposite outcomes. But today, unambiguous data pointing to a clear directional outcome is lacking (especially on intermediate and longer-term time frames). 4. Severely inverted yield curves suggest pressure on the economy and equity markets in the coming year or two. But as the lessons of the dot-com crash have taught us, markets can rally violently into their own recessionary demise. The downward channel from the July 18, 2023, swing high has been the only pattern working lately. The last decline in late October 2023 was bought, and this dip fell to support at the downward sloping parallel channel. Bulls may see this as a bull flag, and it might be, but a breakout above the downward-sloping trendline from TSLA's all-time high stands in the way of a potential flag-breakout. Further, bears may reasonably see the channel from January 2023 as a bear flag within the larger downtrend from 2021. These conflicting technicals are worth watching over the coming weeks and months for resolution. Supplementary Chart A If one zooms out on TSLA's chart and looks at the past two years of price action, price action has largely been sideways in a trading range. This is despite the vicious decline starting November 2021 and lasting for over a year as well as the violent rallies and choppy uptrend in 2023. This sideways range seems to contain both the bear and bull markets of 2021-2023. Trading ranges are also known as chop, which is why trends on all time frames have likely been less predictable, disappointing many traders and investors during this time unless they have major equity cushions from many years ago or trade only the shorter time frames. Supplementary Chart B Because the larger degree trends over a two-year to three-year period has been primarily sideways, the trends within it have been less reliable and more likely to chop up TSLA investors. Anchored VWAPs shown below also confirm this analysis of choppy, sideways action that is less predictable overall. Over the past year, notice all the failed breakouts above and below the key VWAPs anchored to major turning points. There are many. Supplementary Chart C Supplementary Chart D Supplementary Chart D shows how the moving averages also are tangled, messy and sideways, presenting conflicting signals. In conclusion, TSLA's technical charts remain conflicted and unclear. Many disciplined traders or investors with a short-term to intermediate-term time frame may wish to define risk clearly and keep losses small or else stay away. The Primary Chart reveals just how challenging TSLA's price action is for trend traders and investors. A downtrend from TSLA's all-time high remains unbroken as the downward sloping parallel channel shows. An uptrend from TSLA's January 2023 low also remains relatively stable despite the volatility seen this year. And a 4-month downtrend channel has been in play since July 2023. Any one of these technical trendlines could break one way or the other, but as of Thanksgiving, none have been broken and these data points remain unavailable for market participants wanting long or short exposure to TSLA. What should traders and investors do? Some may vent the useless nature of a post that says a stock can go up, down or sideways on intermediate to long-term time frames. Others may see that TSLA doesn't have a clear directional play except on the shortest time frames, which is based on the currently available data. So perhaps wait patiently for more data and simply do nothing—the hardest thing for fidgety trader and DIY investor types, right? Those sitting on a large equity cushion may wish to tighten stops a bit to $200 (assuming their entries are much lower). Those with no position may want to just wait for more clarity. Short-term traders who believe institutional flows into year end will buoy markets broadly and lead to higher prices into year end (and first week of January 2024) may wish to keep an eye on critical support at $200-$220 evidenced by the green VWAP anchored to October 2023 lows as shown on the Primary Chart. If this author were to have a bias, it would lean in this direction into year end and early January 2024, but it's a weak bias that can't be strongly held. Such a thesis, like any other trading viewpoint, isn't guaranteed at all even though it may have a reasonable probability of being correct. This is why a stop (risk level) is needed. Upside targets in such a scenario would require a decisive move above the .618 Fibonacci retracement level and for that level to hold first. It's possible that the move off October 2023 lows could be consolidated first, where bullish TSLA traders may watch $200-$220 support levels. If a dip were to create a better entry for traders into year end, then upside targets might be considered as follows: Conservative: $250-$255 Aggressive: $275-$280 Extremely Aggressive: $300-$310 As always, risk should be well managed so that the reward / risk ratio remains higher and the losses kept small. And keep in mind that TSLA-related news catalysts, including the ones from this past week, may have a tendency to yank price around and create formidable volatility. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
45