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Will currency wars replace commodity wars?In general, Monday began quite peacefully. China has been non-aggressive in its response to Trump who has signed into law a bill that supports pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. And it seemed that we were waiting for another boring day. However, Trump once again showed why we prefer the sale of the dollar for a quite long time. He began the day by accusing Argentina and Brazil of understating their national currencies value to gain a competitive advantage for their products in the US market. In response, the President of the United States raised tariffs on the import of steel and aluminium from these countries. Well, he continued with the Fed’s traditional accusations of overvaluation of the dollar and called on the Central Bank to weaken monetary policy and the dollar. Markets took it as signals for sales of the American currency. Moreover, the buyers on the dollar were not happy with the data on the ISM Index in the US manufacturing sector: 48.1 pips with a forecast of 49.2 pips. Recall that an index value below 50 signals a deterioration in business activity in the US manufacturing sector. Well, returning to Trump and his actions on Monday, in the light of such events, it’s premature to talk about the end of the trade wars. Rather, on the contrary, there is a reason to talk about the transition of trade wars to currency wars with the consequences that maybe even more devastating for the global economy. In general, the future looks rather bleak. In this regard, our recommendations to buy safe-haven assets remain relevant. Our basic positions for today are: finding points for sales of the dollar, purchases of gold and the Japanese yen, sales of oil and the Russian ruble. We also note that while the period of low volatility continues on the foreign exchange market, it is worthwhile to continue aggressive trading on the intraday basis without obvious preferences, for which you can use watch oscillators.
TVC:DXY
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | NZD 2020 Macro MapA good time to update the roadmap for NZDUSD as we enter into the final chapter of 2019. The market has been heavily short NZDUSD all year, pricing in further cuts from RBNZ, the anticipation of a dovish CB was short-circuited and we are starting to see a reduction in their short positions. This was evident in my previous post: From a strictly macro perspective, NZD is not expected to outperform however the housing market is showing signs of strength as collateral from AUD. I see room for markets to reduce further the over pricing of RBNZ cuts, which will support NZD in the short-medium term. On the USD side, as widely mentioned here and in the Telegram channel, USD weakness is reaching out theatres and will be even more evident in high-beta currencies like NZD. Those following will also know I am long NZD crosses, NZDCAD continues to make a lot of sense with CAD longs being unwound after the dovish BoC. Important to note 

key risks to this trade come from unexpected RBNZ intervention. Good luck all those planning FX trades into 2020. The environment is going to become increasingly difficult as investors position around US election risks, my 2020 FX outlook reports along with other strategy research in the coming weeks. 2020 is setting up for fireworks on the FX board with expectations and valuations starting to diverge and with late cycle concerns creeping back in through the back door to put the cherry on top. For those interested can send a PM on Tradingview.
Long
by ridethepig
USDJPY SELL LIMIT PENDING AROUND 110.000 (WEEKLY TIMEFRAME)Good morning traders from the UK. Time to look at the the higher timeframes on this one. We are stepping out and looking at the bigger picture that could impact this pair sooner rather than later. With 2020 looming it's good to see what the end the of this year COULD look like and how that may affect the pair moving into the first half of the year. -Weekly timeframe downtrend. We are looking for a third touch of the top descending trend line, This being my first level of resistance. In and around the 110.00 I have FIVE resistance levels across the weekly and monthly timeframe. Secondly a weekly key level (turquoise horizontal line), which we could see a false breakout upwards to suck in retail traders. The daily has to dojis just underneath this resistance level. Again this shows indecisiveness in the market NOT a change in direction. Which makes me feel we could still pop up 50 pips to the 110.000 physiological level and stop out a few early sellers. The weekly candle closure sits perfectly underneath my weekly resistance at 109.500. Coincidence? Thirdly, the pink trend line is from my monthly timeframe where the first point is from June 2016, the start of and uptrend. price did break the uptrend and is looking like it will retest this longterm trend line in and around the 110.00 mark. We also have a Simple moving average at 110.00 which acts as a level of resistance on the higher timeframe where the MA's are in a downtrend movement. The SMA is my fourth high timeframe resistance The fifth level of resistance is the 61.80% fibonacci retracement level. Again we have floated in and around this level for weeks. currently we have had to touched of the 61.80, price could be exhausted and tumble back towards the downside. This leads us nicely into mentioning that we are in counter uptrend within a yearly downtrend shown on my weekly timeframe by the highlighted grey box. Our weekly candle on 04 November is acting as a inside bar formation. I would not say that we have created a higher high this week due to the candle closure being in line with the top of the inside bar. This could show that over the past few weeks with have been moving sideways at the end of a uptrend. could this be the start of the downtrend? As we lead into December and the festive period the first 2 weeks of this month we may see a lot of movement before the holidays begin. One to look out for. Next week check put you economic calendar as it is jam packed with upcoming news that could push this pair in a direction. My personal opinion the DXY will begin to lose strength. This will also assist with my longterm bias of UJ short. Trade safe good risk management but all importantly go get those pips!!! Travis Duncan Instagram - Travis_duncz www.rebirthholdings.co.uk
Short
by Travis_duncz
US records, Trump irritates Sino & Johnson is ready to celebrateMost Americans, as well as financial markets, received the day off from work on Thursday, therefore, we can focus on other financial markets. In today's review, we will focus on the oil market. Recall that next week the OPEC meeting should be held, which could potentially change the existing balance of forces in the oil market. But we will talk about this meeting later. Now let's focus on the current state of affairs. Oil growth last week was highly dependent on optimistic news about the progress in negotiations between the US and China. Accordingly, traders worked out a possible increase in demand in the oil market. But, as we already noted in the previous reviews, the markets are already tired of promises and waiting for results. Accordingly, oil growth stopped. The participants in the oil market can be understood, especially considering that Trump has nevertheless signed a law to support protesters in Hong Kong. Potentially, this could cause a new round of escalation in relations between the USA and China and another breakdown of the negotiation process between the countries. At the same time, statistics from the US come out bearish. First of all, it is about the USA reaching a new record in oil production: 12.9 million barrels per day. The result was an increase in US oil reserves, which in aggregate puts pressure on oil quotes and not only does not allow the asset to grow but also pulls it down. Our position in oil is as follows: we look for points for selling the asset on the intraday basis and sell oil in the medium term (current prices are quite favourable for this). But lets back to other news and markets. According to a YouGov poll, conservatives will win and get the vast majority in the December 12 elections in the UK. This means that Johnson will have every opportunity to ratify his Brexit deal. Thus, the probability of exit without a deal has become even more insignificant. For the pound, this is undoubtedly good news. Recall that its growth potential is far from exhausted. We are talking about 500-1000 points of the possible growth of GBPUSD. So we continue to recommend buying a pair.
FX:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
Good news from US, dollar & new threatsA lot of macroeconomic statistics was published yesterday, however, it did not lead to significant movements. GDP was revised upwards 2.1% instead of preliminary 1.9%, and durable goods orders exceeded the most optimistic expectations (+ 0.6% m / m instead of -0.9% m / m). Well, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States so generally reached the lowest level since 1973. However, people were not in a hurry to buy a dollar in the foreign exchange market. Even against the backdrop of news that another progress has been made in the negotiation process between the US and China: Trump said that phase 1 of the trade transaction is close to its completion. The lack of reaction to such a clear fundamental positive, in our opinion, is very symptomatic. Accordingly, we are not going to revise our recommendation to “sell the dollar”. On the contrary, thanks to yesterday's data, sale for the dollar against the euro and the Japanese yen became simply excellent as well as Gold. So yesterday's dollar appreciation is an opportunity, not a threat. We continue to monitor analysts predicting an imminent crisis. We are not even interested in the time frame as much as the reasons. So far, our collection has the collapse of the CLO market, the growth of staff salaries and the fall in corporate profits because of this, huge debts both at the state and corporate levels, the collapse of price bubbles in the stock and bond markets, trade wars, and growing inequality in world, the end of the business cycle. So today in our piggy bank replenishment: a crisis in the banking system of China. According to the Bank of China, more than half of Chinese banks may collapse if the economic situation in the country worsens further. And this is tens of trillions of dollars. For reference: the size of China's banking system is about $ 40 trillion, which is two times bibber than the US banking system. That is the problem. So we find another confirmation of our basic investment strategy: to shorten the US stock market while buying safe-haven assets (gold and Japanese yen). Well, in conclusion, we note that the spring is now compressed to its limit (for example, the volatility of the euro has reached a historic low).
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Trump Signs HK Bills, Denting Trade Optimism AGAIN!In today’s market insights I talk about Trump’s latest move to support HK protesters by signing two bills, denting optimism around the recent trade war optimism! The shift in sentiment was expected but how risk vs havens performed may seem confusing to some when looking at CADJPY and AUDCHF. Here I explain how the yen and franc are likely to perform against high beta commodity currencies Canadian dollar and Swiss Franc! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
by Orbex
3
EU: Weekly long setupEUR/USD Trade setup update: After a 20 pip move up yesterday, anda 20 pip move down today, it's tuff to remain patient with no price action. However, what I've seen is that thursday/Fridays are usually the busiest during the weeks for FX markets right now so don't give up this week just yet! Patience is key this week. I want to make sure it's obvious that when we don't publish trades there's a reason. We don't publish trades to force you to begin to trade when the markets opportunities are ready for execution, and not just trades that are placed simply because it's "tuesday". Not taking trades is just as an important as to knowing how to trade in the first place. Staying out of the market when it's not moving. The Euro has tapped our zone where we're looking to buy, however we;re looking to buy at support and test the bottom of 1.099 where we will look at specific longs at this price.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn3442968
18
China makes concessions, Johnson's manifesto & Societe forecastsOn Monday markets were waiting for the successful completion of the first phase of trade negotiations between the US and China. This time, a positive signal was China's willingness to increase the punishment for violating intellectual property rights. China's regular violations of these rights that particularly irritated the United States and largely hindered negotiation progress. Information about the victory of the Democrats in Hong Kong also helped to relieve tension in the financial markets, as there is hope that this conflict can be resolved peacefully. Against the backdrop of such news, the decline in safe-haven assets seemed quite understandable on Monday. However, while we do not see any reason for global repositioning, we will use this decline in gold and the Japanese yen as an opportunity to buy safe-haven assets cheaper. Moreover, there is a “Trump factor”, which literally can turn the situation upside down. For example, sign the bill on human rights and democracy in Hong Kong or blame China for intransigence, etc. In addition, the global crisis is still potential. For example, analysts at Societe Generale expect a recession in the spring of next year. According to experts of the bank, the next recession in the United States will be triggered by a sharp reduction in company profits, which, in turn, will be caused by the rapid acceleration of labour costs. Yesterday was pretty successful for the British pound. The fact is that on Sunday, Boris Johnson has launched his party’s manifesto, in which he promised before December 25 to submit to the parliament an agreement on Brexit, agreed in October with the EU. According to surveys, the Conservative Party is now supported by 42% of voters, and the Labor Party - 29%. That is, with such a scenario, there is no risk of Britain leaving the EU without a deal, but the growth potential of the pound is far huge. So we continue to give preference to purchases of the pound, but until the announcement of the election results, we do not expect strong directional movements in the pound and recommend adhering to oscillatory trading, that is, buy the pound from hourly oversold zones and sell from hourly overbought zones. As for our other recommendations, today we will sell a pair of USDJPY, buy EURUSD, and also sell oil.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
What to expect this week: main events and our recommendationsThe volatility in the foreign exchange market reached its minimum in recent years. The VIX Fear Index was also confidently at the bottom. The absence of significant events entailed the absence of strong movements in the foreign exchange market. Friday perhaps was the exception. Another weak statistics from the Eurozone and the UK contributed to the activation of sellers of the euro and the pound. The main concern for the markets was the adoption by the US Congress of an act in support of protesters in Hong Kong. China reacted extremely painfully to this, considering it was interference in its internal affairs. And since the first phase of the trade deal between the US and China is already at the finish line, this could potentially lead to the disruption of the deal. But on Friday, Trump said he would veto the bill. In the USA, in the meantime, the impeachment process continues, which in itself is a kind of guarantee against a sharp rise in the dollar value in the foreign exchange market. So, despite the activation of buyers of the dollar on Friday and sellers of safe-haven assets against the background of such news, we still see no reason to revise our trading preferences. And on Monday we will buy the pound and the euro against the US dollar, and we will also buy gold and the Japanese yen. Rising oil prices stopped on Friday, as we expected, our recommendation to sell oil has become even more relevant. Do not forget to sell the Russian ruble as well. As for the upcoming week, it has a chance to become low-volatility. Data on US GDP is formally extremely important, but it will be a revised value, that is, the probability of surprise appear is low.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ORBEX: Weekend Trade News Likely to Affect SPX, DXY!In today’s marketinsights video recording, I talk about SPX and DXY . SPX takes a breather from all-time highs offering some pocket-relief to short-term bulls, however, with weekend trade headline news the rally could continue higher. The US index looks bid too despite the medium-term bearishness as the economy performs incredibly well, supporting the dollar. From a technical perspective, there's more room to the upside for both. The index, however, will most likely have a harder trip moving higher as its upside is limited. Unless if of course a sharp bullish move occurs, taking out breakeven stops and then reversing rapidly to everyone's surprise. Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Orbex