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Crude firm as EIA showed that fuel demand improvedWTI Crude prices dipped over 1.7 percent to close at $40.2 per barrel as surge in U.S. Crude inventory levels clouded the demand outlook for Crude; however, lingering supply worries limited the fall. As per reports from the Energy Information Administration, U.S. Crude inventory levels rose marginally by 501,000 barrels in the week ending on 2 nd October’20. However, the losses were limited as Hurricane delta rapidly approached the U.S. Gulf coast forcing the energy companies to shut around 17% of total U.S. crude output in an attempt to avoid any damage. Failed wage talks between the union and the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association (NOG) triggered a strike leading to the closure of Six Norwegian offshore oil and gas fields. More number of workers going on strike over the wage issue risked an output of 330,000 barrels of oil per day alos supported Oil prices. Suggestion: BUY USOIL FROM 40 SL BELOW 39.40 TGT 40.50/40.90 ELSE SELL BELOW 39.40 TGT 38.80/60 SL ABV 40.20
TVC:USOILLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
Gold on mixed note as mixed statements reg stimulus bill ::Gold prices were steady as mixed statements regarding the new Coronavirus relief bill, kept the bullion afloat. Top White House officials downplayed the possibility of more coronavirus relief, while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi disparaged U.S. President Trump for backing away from talks on a comprehensive deal. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers split over how to apply a new strategy for monetary policy at their September meeting, and, amid growing doubts about the path of the economy, offered no clear sense of their next steps to offset the coronavirus recession, minutes from their September meeting showed. Apart from BOE and ECB meeting minutes scheduled later in the day wherein comments from their respective Governors will be important to watch for, market participants will also focus on the US weekly jobless claims data; if recorded better than expectations it could support the metal prices. Technical: we like to monitor H4 support at $1,871 today. A H4 close below $1,871 could trigger bearish scenarios to H4 support at $1,835, which sits just under daily support at $1,841 (the next downside target on the daily timeframe). A decisive rebound from $1,871, nevertheless, suggests the pendulum may swing in favor of weekly bulls off support at $1,882.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OfficialYaMarkets
BTCUSD WEEKLY & DAILY - SHORTEveryone has seen the daily triangle and is predicting a break out up or down. You don't have to be a scientist rocket for this. You also don't have to be a scientist rocket for the next part. I think BTCUSD is more likely to break down and find support around $9200 or fib retracement Level 0.382. Here's why. 1. Weekly MACD crossed over bearish 2. RSI & CCI both pointing down 3. Volume decreasing 4. Of the two Triangles Shown, the first triangle used the weekly EMA10 for Support. The Second Triangle is struggling to stay above it. Of course price can reverse and break up but I see a bearish sentiment. Also consider the weird times, Trump, the US elections, and COVID. Now is the time to potentially cash out of some assets and go to cash to look for cheaper buy opportunities.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by Hungryman34
1
DXY $Index Cup & Handle Pattern H2 Chart Target 94.40(23.6%Fib.)INDEX:DXY Update for DXY...After "No Stimulus 'til after Election" triggers market to buy $Index(DXY). Previously, as linked ideas, I had called for a DXY bounce at beginning of September. DXY proceeded to bounce from its 2011 Long Term upwards trendline, retracing to the 23.6% Fibonacci level($94.40) of the March to September drawdown. From there I forecasted that DXY would come back to test the 14% Fib. area and the local trendline(blue dotted upward sloping). The news of no stimulus conveniently triggered "Risk-Off", subsequently turning the market to the safety of US Dollars(DXY). On the 2-Hour Chart I see a cup & handle formation. The handle retracement looks complete at 50% Fibonacci retracement, subsequently reclaiming the(blue dotted) upward trendline. The target for the measured move is back to the 23.6% Fib. area of $94.40.... Again, I maintain my stance regarding the DXY as I will copy paste my previously published analysis statement: Oct 1 INDEX:DXY I had been calling for DXY to retrace after reaching the 23.6%($94. 40 ) back to local trendline and 14% Fib. The DXY pulled back to $93.53, just shy of the 14%, as well as the local trendline(blue dotted line). Now we find DXY regaining its corrective momentum to the upside. I still contend that the 138.2%($95.39) Fibonacci extension of correction is in play, and perhaps the 38.2% Retracement ($96.04)! Perhaps the final corrective wave(call it "C" or "Y") will end in a 5 wave diagonal, not impulse? To reiterate; I believe DXY is following a similar trend as in 2016 during the election period in the USA! In 2016 $Index was able to rally through the election into early January, 2017. It was at that point that the DXY began to breakdown for one year. During this time Bitcoin (& Crypto) inversely correlated, and of course was able to rally to its ATH as the $Index found a bottom in January, 2018. From there the Dollar has rallied up until March of this year(2020), at which point the Dollar again broke down, and has found support on its Long Term trendline. I believe a similar pattern will play out, give or take a month or three, and DXY will eventually break below the 2011 trendline. Let's see how it all goes....
TVC:DXY
by TheFreeCryptoPress
Trump abandoned stimulus talks, Gold fell to one week lowGold prices on Wednesday hovered near a one-week low hit in the previous session, after U.S. President Donald Trump halted new stimulus talks, bolstering the dollar. Prospects for more aid for Americans struggling through the COVID-19 pandemic and U.S. airlines seeking to avert a wave of layoffs crumbled on Tuesday when Trump ended negotiations until after the November election. U.S. and European central bankers called for renewed government spending to support families and businesses as the battle against the coronavirus triggered recession enters a newly critical phase, giving some support to gold on lower levels. Economic calendar is fairly light today on data front, although market participants will keep an eye on the FOMC minutes scheduled later in the day, wherein comments from the fed governor will be in focus. Holdings in SPDR gold Trust, the world’s largest gold backed exchange traded fund, fell 0.32% to 1271.52 tonnes on Tuesday. Technical: H4 resistance at $1,916 held back buyers, with the candles settling the session just north of H4 support coming in at $1,871. Daily price also receded lower from resistance at $1,911, aided by trend line resistance, extended from the high $2,075. Shaped in the form of a bearish outside day reversal, the daily chart reveals scope to approach support at $1,841. While both the daily and H4 timeframes eye lower levels, traders might want to take into account that weekly price remains circling a support level at $1,882. In addition to this, the trend in this market has faced decisively north since 2016. Sellers are likely monitoring H4 support at $1,871 today, as a push through here shines the spotlight on H4 support at $1,835, which sits just under daily support at $1,841 (the next downside target on the daily timeframe). Consequently, a H4 close below $1,871 could trigger bearish scenarios, while a decisive rejection from $1,871 suggests the pendulum may swing in favour of weekly bulls off support at $1,882.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by OfficialYaMarkets
S&P Midweek Update 10/6/2020 - Trumps Tweet: Did it matter?I usually only post one trade idea a week for the S&P, but this week's trade idea produced an excellent trade that I closed it and may look for another trade setup for the second half of this week. Check it out. It was a long trade setup out of a triangle wedge. The market today (Tuesday - 10/6) had a violent reversal after it looked like it was melting up (hence why I closed my earlier trade and took profit; I hate melt-ups). The question of whether Trump's tweet about delaying stimulus really spooked the market, or if the market was planning for a technical correction doesn't really matter to me. The timing of the tweet and the market reversal was interesting though. I look at price action alone. Some might not believe it, but the market structure still could have some upside based on a bullish uptrend channel it has formed over the last several trading sessions and has stayed inside even after today's dump. As I've posted before, I DO NOT try to predict what the market will do. I look for a trade setup on the sell side and a trade setup on the buy side. This way I don't let my bias interfere with what the market hands me. Here there is a large 'No Man's area' (the channel) and I will wait patiently for price to either break out of the channel to the upside or downside. The breakout and breakdown of this channel happen to correspond to strong support and resistance (isn't it funny how these things work out - there are no coincidences in the market). Never play the breakout. Be patient. Wait for price to return to it's breakout area, retest it, and resume up (indicated by the arrows). Patience is rewarded by this market. Good luck.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
S&P Analysis Week of 10/04/2020: Will Market's Tank or go HigherAs usual, I like to keep my charts as simple as possible. My last two weeks have been spot on and I was able to make some nice profits. This week I'm keeping it even simpler. I do NOT try to predict the markets. I take the high probability trade setups the market gives me. I'm waiting for either a breakout above the diagonal trend line (with a retest) and then resumption off, OR a breakdown below the critical support line (with a retest). I'm not really sure how Trump's COVID hospitalization will affect the markets so I'm no even going to try to predict. However, I know a lot of people went short on Friday and kept their positions open over the weekend. The market loves to do the opposite of the masses. "When it feels really wrong, it's probably right. And when it feels really right, it's probably wrong." Good luck.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by XYZ-Trader-
14
FX Update: USD close to the brink of support as US yields spikeSummary: USD weakness has extended to pivotal levels that are the bull-bear dividing line between a return to a weak USD regime and the more neutral tactical outlook if USD support holds here. Volatility remains muted, but will have a hard time remaining that way if we continue to see anything resembling the pronounced weakness in US treasuries yesterday Trading focus: Getting a grip on the US yield spike and what it means for the US dollar The most important development across markets yesterday was the steep sell-off in US treasuries all along the yield curve coming after a period in which US yields have been moribund. What are the drivers here? Is the market satisfied that US data is bouncing back strongly as evidenced in the latest strong September ISM Services yesterday (at 57.8) and that a stimulus deal looks more likely now that Trump is back in the White House and has argued in favour of striking a deal? Or perhaps the signs that Biden is pulling away in the polls is the chief driver and the argument here is that the Democrats are set to take back the presidency and the Senate, therefore paving the way for a massive multi-trillion stimulus passed in the first one hundred days of a Biden administration, taking US inflation much higher while leaving the Fed policy rate pegged near zero. The US dollar has clearly been driven by the market’s pricing of future inflation. The Biden argument seems the more plausible driver here, and US rates spiked all along the curve, but most aggressively at the long-end yesterday, with the 10-year trading above 0.75% resistance and the 30-year above 1.50%, a notable chart level. Also, the stronger the apparent edge that the Democrats are achieving in the polls, the less likely that Trump’s claims of a fraudulent election will be able to drive “contested election” uncertainty for any appreciable length of time after Election Day. In the meantime, however, if US rates continue spiking here the risk sentiment apple cart could be upset and keep the USD bears at bay – tough to tell where the balance of risks lies, but equities are stumbling in the European session today after the boost yesterday, supposedly from Trump’s quick return to the White House (at the margin, a healthy Trump through Election Day keeps the risk of election chaos at bay as well). Chart: AUDUSD The AUDUSD rally has found that 0.7200 is the sticking point here after an uninspiring RBA meeting overnight that provided no notable shift in forward expectations for policy. This has coincided with EURUSD testing the 1.1800 area. The narrative for the USD bears is that the US is set to unleash further torrents of liquidity, either right away in a last-ditch Trump administration-Democratic House deal to juice the economy and get checks in the mail ASAP, or at worst, after the election with a massive, multi-trillion new stimulus from an increasingly likely US Democrat “clean sweep” scenario. The downside trigger is rather far away at 0.7000 but is the more prominent chart point. The G-10 rundown USD – the US dollar taken to the last bits of support in a number of pairs – more USD liquidity from stimulus and rising expectations of a Biden win and the deeper negative real US rates that this might bring on a heavier dose of fiscal stimulus are theoretically USD negative, but if spiking US yields spike risk sentiment, the USD bears could be in for a rough ride tactically. EUR – EURUSD has tickled the 1.1800 level, arguably the local bull-bear line for the pair and a key for the broader USD outlook. The services PMI revisions for Europe were positive for Germany, but even worse for Spain at a terrible 42.4 as piecemeal shutdowns are threatened there. The only argument for euros is that they will hold their value because more cautious fiscal in Europe together with demographics will keep the negative real rate threat lower than elsewhere. JPY – hard to argue in favour of the yen if yields spike further, but as long as the spike is isolated to the US on fear of negative real rates, the stronger JPY story could re-emerge if risk sentiment wobbles here. So many JPY crosses resemble their USD counterparts (EURUSD and EURJPY, for example) and would expect that to continue. GBP – sterling poised for good news, which the market seems to be leaning for as we await the key headline announcing some breakthrough in post-Brexit transition period negotiations. Still have long term doubts on the height of the ceiling for sterling due to the UK’s structural deficits, but a sterling surge on finally getting the Brexit issue in the rear view mirror is likely in the cards.. CHF – nothing to report here, but watching with interest on whether yield move continues higher and drives weakness at the margin. EURCHF 1.0600-1.0900 is the limbo zone for the franc and has been since June. AUD – the RBA looking for ways to bring further easing if needed, but happy where it is at present and already hopeful that the unemployment rate peaks at a lower level than previously feared. AUDUSD has found resistance again at the pivotal 0.7200 area as noted above. CAD – CAD failed to react much to the very strong surge in WTI crude yesterday as USDCAD sits at a local tactical pivot area of 1.3250 – the pair looks passive and low-beta to the USD direction. NZD – in NZDUSD terms, we have been coiling and coiling since July – the clearest level at the moment there is the 0.6500 area, which could set up a run towards 0.6400 if the USD puts on a rally again. The AUDNZD cross is lost in the desert, but downside pressure risk towards 1.0600 perhaps weighs more as long at 1.0850 isn’t retaken. S EK – EURSEK needs a positive news in Europe and another surge in risk sentiment to punch back down through the 10.40 pivot area and suggest an end to upside risk. Right now - in limbo between recent top and that 10.40 area. NOK – a nice rebound in crude oil gives the NOK a shot in the arm and if positive risk sentiment continues here, we could see a full return to the 10.50 area in EURNOK. The CPI rise and implications for negative rates looks scary until we consider that it is mostly FX-driven as the trade-weighted NOK is some 8% below where it was a year ago even after the comeback from the spring-time lows. 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by Saxo
Pound strengthens on weak dollar but upside limited?GDP data from UK came in at -19.8 percent against market expectations of -20.4 percent. Brexit is far from being resolved. France has adopted a tough line on fisheries, a sensitive topic in London. Moreover, both sides are at loggerheads on state aid and other topics. Neither Brussels nor Britain published any details on progress, undermining sterling's rally. Technically Pound rose yesterday and testing h4 200ma level at 1.3015 level with downside support at 136ma at 1.2925. Seems a range bound in between these levels and one can scalp in between this range. A break upside h4 200ma immediate hurdle awaits at day 200ma at 1.3060 seems the rally could stop again there. a break of 136ma downside can test 1.2860 h4 50ma. So overall sell on rise is advised for the day. Suggestion: SELL GBPUSD FROM 1.2985 SL ABV 1.3040 TGT 1.2920 ELSE BUY ABOVE 1.3060 FOR 1.3120/30 SL BELOW 1.3010
Short
by OfficialYaMarkets
1
Gold jumped 1% optimism around a stimulus bill and weak dollarGold jumped 1% hitting almost a two week high, on optimism around a U.S. stimulus bill and a weakened dollar, despite gains in the stock markets after reports that U.S. President Donald Trump could soon e discharged from the hospital. Optimism over fiscal stimulus came into play after upbeat weekend comments from U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who said progress was being made on relief legislation. On the data front, even though service PMI data from US was in line with the forecast but was recorded better in other major economies hence giving some jerk to the metal prices. Market participants will keep an eye on the speech by ECB and Fed Governor later in the day. Updates regarding the health of POTUS and US Presidential election will also be important to watch for. Also investors are awaiting the release of minutes from U.S. Federal Reserve's September meeting tomorrow which could keep the volatility high. Technically, Gold in tight range at 1885-1925, upside seems limited with immediate hurdle at 1918 and day h4 ma200 stands at 1930.Downside h4 ma50 stands at 1885 giving solid support. Any break either side could give fresh move for downside 1848 which is the trend deciding level, and upside a break 1930 can test 1955/1980 levels. Overall range bound to weak bias can be seen for the day in morning session and can pick up from the low for evening session. Buy on dips is advised overall. Suggestion: BUY GOLD FROM 1900-1895 SL BELOW 1885 TGT 1917/20 ELSE SELL BELOW 1885 TGT 1875/1868 SL ABV 1905
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OfficialYaMarkets
A Trump tweet marked the ATH in SeptemberTrump perfectly called the all time high in September for NDX. His tweet about the Dow reaching 29,000 came an hour after market close. Today after close, he tweeted about the Dow rising 466 points in the session. He also tweeted "STOCK MARKET HIGHS" today before open. Two data points do not make a solid conclusion, and Trump has tweeted about the market many times before with little result. It will be interesting to see how the market trades tomorrow. Some people may point a finger at this tweet as a catalyst if a large directional move occurs. TWEET LINKS: twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com
TVC:NDQ
by ValkyrieBlue
3