Get started

Trump

Biden Market. $SPY Examining the weeks ahead. The Market is at a pivotal moment where we could see significant downside, or possible upside. Ill be waiting to see how the market reacts to the election when futures open up Sunday night. At the moment we are up against a large resistance on the daily and if rejected due to a news type catalyst, hold on to your ass cause we are gonna find suport and quick, but I am a hopeful bull right now but always ready to play the downside.
AMEX:SPYLong
by SimpleStacks
The Most Important Levels for BTC/USD After The ElectionsThe elections in the USA have a strong effect on the price. After seeing the huge surge in the price of gold we also see the major increase in price of BTC. In just three days, the price has increased by 20%. The dominance of BTC is increasing as well, and alts are bleeding. This behavior is common when BTC is growing a lot in a short period of time. But there is hope, on several earlier occasions such a surge in BTC and BTC Dominance has led to a temporary alt season. When BTC consolidates and the market cap flows back into alts we will see many interesting trading opportunities arise. I will make sure to report on them whenever I see such opportunities on this account. For BTC itself however, we will struggle to do any technical analysis on shorter timeframes as the price is moving into new territories. In the chart above I show how to look at horizontal zones in order to find help in charting the current price. Other alternatives for charting such large moves is by using Fibonacci retracements. In today's analysis however I will focus only on horizontal levels. It's interesting to see that we see the most important levels around the $13,000 mark, the $14,000 mark, the $15,000 mark and the $16,000 mark. I highlighted two zones explicitly in red, because they are EXACTLY at the psychological levels of $16,000 and $14,000. I consider those extra powerful. The other levels have been created using the S/R flip principle. The key idea being that horizontal levels can stay important even after they have been broken. All further info about these levels can be found on the chart. For trades I suggest to keep an eye on the $16,000 and the $15,000 levels. More specifically I suggest to get a short trade in as the price has been ridiculously high recently. A short from the ~16,000 to the ~15,000 would be my first recommendation. Follow me for consistent high quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Trading-Guru
12
Weekly Recap; Nothing has changedDoing this little recap because I've already seen plenty of outlandish remarks on Twitter about the election and how the markets are overvalued and what not So, as we all know the election results are being prolonged, Trump is whining, and the markets are up 9% over 5 days. Many believe this is overextended and that the markets will eventually simmer down once Biden actually does take office (lets be honest, he probably will). Let's analyze this week and market sentiment. Why have the markets rallied 9% and is this overextended? In short, this is not overextended and the markets will probably continue to climb. Behavioural finance will help explain this. The markets have not actually rallied or overextended on a technical basis, they have instead reconnected to primary/secondary trends after a major sell off. Smart money can help explain the sell off, that is, they knew prices would go down so they sold and jumped back in once the markets bottomed on Friday/Monday (I did too). Seen on the graph we have this trading range between the 2 orange lines, considering there hasn't been a breakout I'd say what happened in the markets this week is perfectly normal. Let's not forget all that cheap money too... Next, lets look at the rationale and what "Wall Street" was actually focusing on: Over the month nothing has changed, and I mean this is the most literal sense, nothing. Fundamentally some stocks surprised on earnings and jumped, and other not so well and fell; this is perfectly normal. Putting these exceptions aside why did the market jump 9% then? Why was the uncertain election perceived so well? An election went by, and yes, we will have a winner. However, the most important take aways are as follows: - Republican senate (say bye bye to Bidens tax hikes and other left-leaning policies) - Trump and Biden economic policies don't defer (there isn't any notable differences) - Economic data is pointing towards recovery Apart from the first 2 points (and maybe the 3rd as icing on the cake) everything else is noise. Covid will be cured, a president will be elected, taxes wont increase...etc. As you can see the clear pattern here: NOTHING HAS OR WILL CHANGE That's pretty much it, we saw a pre-election sell off, then a rally. What's clear here is that Biden won't be as bad on the economy and market as people actually think, in my opinion I think Biden will actually do more good than bad for the economy. With Trump out of office I'm expecting an increase in foreign investment, influx of foreign cash, and *maybe* a first mover advantage in the renewable energy and marijuana industries. Remember: What distinguishes a beginner from an expert is that an expert knows what to ignore. For those who care, i'm up 33% since Monday because I stuck to my guns
TVC:SPX
by RaftoO
Election Results and the Future of the Stock MarketDisclaimer: this is a completely APOLITICAL analysis based solely on facts and my personal insight. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only. In this post, I'll be discussing the current situation of the US presidential elections, and the market outlook depending on some of the probable cases. Election Results - To begin with, the election got complicated as Trump suggested the possibility of it being rigged. - He is asking for transparency of mail votes, and wants to settle the result in the supreme court. - Probable cases can be classified into three big categories: 1) Biden Wins - Based on the current result, and the poll results of the past, Biden ultimately winning the election wouldn't be a surprise - If matters are not taken to the supreme court, everything should go as initially planned 2) Trump Wins - The same story applies to Trump; - Had he not attempted to settle matters through the supreme court, what we could expect for Trump's winning situation is the following: - All votes are counted, and trump eventually wins over 270 votes. - While this is very improbable, it's not impossible. 3) Results Delayed - This is the situation we are faced with today - Trump wants the supreme court to settle the election, and to do so, the election results need to be delayed to his favor - Trump may have a strategic advantage over Biden, should his Plan B work out. - However, whether matters will be taken to the supreme court is unclear yet, as Trump's claims have very little to no base. So What About the Market? I'm sure the big question you might have in mind is: So what's going to happen to the market? What would be best for the market to remain bullish as it is? Based on the information available so far, it seems that Biden as president, and a republican dominant senate would be the most probable scenario. As people get a better grasp of what the potential outcome of this event, uncertainty, doubt, and fear induced through market psychology has diminished significantly. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has risen, while the Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the fear index, has decreased significantly. This demonstrates that people weren't necessarily afraid of Biden becoming president. They were worried about the uncertainty of such event having an impact on the market. In regards to the most probable outcome at the moment, where we have Biden as president, and a republican dominant senate, this might be the best case for the market over the long run. The republican senate will be able to keep in check with , and neutralize Biden's rather radical stimulus packages and fiscal policies. The infrastructure package will also be implemented as planned, but possibly in a reduced manner. Overall, some of the policies we see will be democratic, and others will be republican. This gridlock that we might face, where both parties have each other in check at an equilibrium, might be the best case for the economy, and the stock market. Statistical Evidence - To begin with, we can see that the red graph demonstrates how the market return increases over time, during a presidential term. - Taking this into account, we can look at the Average Growth of Composite Index, which organizes the market returns depending on the political situation - It calculates the average return over 4 years - Statistics demonstrates cases of: a republican president, a democratic president, a republican sweep (red wave), a democratic sweep (blue wave), a republican and democratic divided congress. - We can see that the case for the democratic divided congress, which is the current scenario with the highest probability, demonstrates the highest market returns - There were 6 cases in which this political setting took place: - In recent cases, it was the example of the Obama administration in 2012, and the Clinton administration in 1996 - Both cases reported extremely high returns in the stock market. - However, at the same time, it's important to remember that there have only been 6 historic cases, and anomalies can always take place Conclusion There are a few things to take away from the statistical data, and probable scenarios regarding America's political setting. 1. The market doesn't dislike democrats. They dislike uncertainty and fear. 2. The gridlock created by a democrat president and a republican senate is a bullish sign for the economy. Combining all the information above, we can expect this current bullish rally to continue further, as the dust settles. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
TVC:SPXLong
by Michael_Wang_Official
The Most Important Levels for GOLD After The ElectionIn this technical analysis I will describe the most important levels for Gold at the moment. I will walk you through each of the levels on the chart and explain how you can use them. Based on empirical evidence, we can observe that the election moving in favor of Biden is good for the price of gold. We have seen that as Biden moves closer to a victory, the price of gold has moved linearly up as well. The future value of conclusions often get included straight away into the price, so don't expect a huge volatility spike after the final results are live. Instead, the real volatility is happening at this moment. This also leads to common mistakes by traders. For example, if a future decision would be expected to lead to an increase in price, people start already buying the asset when the probability of that decision happening gets higher. Now, when the actual decision makes the price can even decrease as the only thing that truly happens is calibrating the height of the earlier expectations with the actual moment of the decision. The price only moves based on the difference between the recalculated probabilities and the actual price, and not based on the final decision itself. Let's now look at the most important horizontal zones for Gold and why I added them to the chart. Horizontal Support Level II This is a place where we can find really solid support. The level around 1850 is a relatively low price area where the price movements have bottomed earlier on. It is not likely that the price will move anywhere below it soon, and as such this horizontal level can be used for a stop loss on any long trade. Horizontal Support Level I This zone is important mostly for determining if the price trend continues. The price is very bullish, but after a sudden spike up there is often a retracement. This horizontal zone can be used to see whether there is some support to continue a second bull trend. Horizontal Resistance Level I + II The first and second horizontal resistance levels could be a great level to be used for placing a take profit. Both of these have proven to show resistance earlier on and the price might face resistance here again. Especially zone II is very interesting here as it is near the psychological level of the $2,000 mark for gold. I suggest placing any take profit for a long position at least slightly under $2,000 to maximize your chances on taking profit. Horizontal Resistance Level III Level three can also be used for a bullish target setting. I expect that after breaking through each of the subsequent horizontal levels, the price will consolidate for a while between the levels. Especially for scalp traders, the moves between zones I, II and III can be great to get a few trades in on smaller time frames such as the 5m, 15m and the 1h. Horizontal Resistance Level IV All-time highs are a massive area of resistance. It is often very difficult for prices to break through areas like that. I would suggest exiting any long positions at this point as it is very difficult to estimate sane levels of take profit and stop loss above areas where the price has ever been before. If you decide to hold above it, think of using a strategy such as trailing stop loss to give some help of leaving the trade. Follow me for consistent high-quality updates, with clear explanations and charts. Please like this post to support me. - Trading Guru -------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer! This post does not provide financial advice. It is for educational purposes only!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trading-Guru
32
Long SPX (S&P500)Interesting times - SPX has all the price points baked in. Forget the Elections, the Richest CEO's and companies added $1 Trillion to their net-worth during the first round of Covid. Whilst retail traders are stressing over Biden or Trump. There are some bigger factors at play. We could see the price fall to around 3096 before a half-decent rise. Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by Mayfair_Ventures
Watching the Biden and Trump coins (Updated)The betting markets suggest its over. This chart showing Biden vs. Trump crypto tokens explain it all. Biden keeps hitting new highs while Trump keeps hitting new lows. The only way this will turn is as follows: Trump wins Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. That's not looking totally possible. However, what is interesting, is that all of these states are undecided and it may take time to figure it out. Nonetheless, these coins are fun to watch during big events like this. The question is... does anyone think Biden might lose the states above? It's rare and improbable. But if there's any sign of that happening, expect these coins to shift FAST.
T
by scheplick
16
Watching the Biden and Trump coinsWell this is only getting more interesting. First Trump was winning. Then it dumped! Biden was winning. He's been winning ever since. Votes are coming in. There's a lot of confusion with mail in votes and in-person votes. So there's no rhyme or reason to how this is all working. That's the important part. Nothing is certain right now, not in the betting markets or in the news. I am sharing this chart now and having some fun with technical analysis because there were a few sudden movements. Somehow the Trump coin saw a slight rally off its lows. Then, there was a blip in the Biden coin. I am watching the two trend lines that I drew. Will one break and the other hold? We will find out soon enough.
T
by scheplick
26
DJI (8H) - still a bear marketI show why the DJI (Wall Street) is still a bear market - at this time (only). Expand the chart for a better view. There is what looks like a parallel channel heading south and two sharp ATR switches. Price moves around in the channel, breaks out and back in. Note also that what looks like a channel now, could change into some other formation. The market does as it likes. This formation is not predictive. It can give an idea of what to expect, from wherever you find price on your chosen time frame. Very unusual things can happen with channels. Some may have seen a recent fallout on the 2H time frame (which doesn't mean the same thing will happen on this time frame. ) Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities. Chart positions shown are not suggestions. No predictions and no guarantees supplied or implied. Heavy losses can be expected. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker