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💡GOLDOZ: Anxiously waiting for NonfarmThe positive sentiment in the stock market is a significant obstacle for gold prices. Conversely, declining US Treasury yields, a weakening US dollar, and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates further could support an increase in gold prices. Furthermore, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and global economic conditions are factors that favor a bullish outlook for safe-haven gold. Gold appears poised to continue its recent recovery and gain momentum on Thursday. Additionally, the MACD histogram and double line on the H4 chart seem to be forming a double bottom. Although higher interest rates can negatively impact gold due to increased opportunity costs, some investors may still choose to hold gold as a hedge against uncertainty.
TVC:GOLD
by Stone_Haven
💡 XAUUSD: The downward trend is slight but not clearThe fluctuation range of gold prices remains considerable, and there hasn't been any substantial price movement since the conclusion of the last trading session. As of now, gold continues to be traded within the range of 1980 to 1990. Upon closer examination of the daily charts, a discernible spinning top pattern has formed, which follows the signals from previous market behavior. This pattern suggests that the sellers may not have a strong grip on the market, and as an investor, it may be prudent to maintain a cautious stance, observing the critical 1970 support area. Should this level be breached, it might present an opportunity for sellers to consider entering new orders.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Stone_Haven
💡 EURUSD: The buyers are dominatingOnce the sellers retested the 1.07 region, the bearish momentum lost its strength and failed to push the price beneath the support zone at 1.05. The prominent long lower shadow observed in the latest session indicates a robust upward pressure on prices, hinting at the resilience of the 1.05 level against a potential breach. Our current approach remains focused on purchasing based on prior reversal signals. For those already holding positions, it is advisable to maintain them. We will only consider abandoning this strategy if the price falls below the range of 1.0530 to 1.0510, which serves as the target for traders. The buy position is still centered around 1.0540.
Long
by Stone_Haven
Gold Price Stays Below 2000 Amid Dollar Rate Hike UncertaintyGold price experienced significant volatility on Wednesday as they initially moved closer to the $2,000 threshold ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcements. This surge was accompanied by the US Dollar's hesitant recovery, coupled with subdued US Treasury bond yields and a mixed market sentiment. However, there was a reversal in gold prices as they briefly dipped to around $1,970 immediately following the Fed's widely anticipated decision to keep the key policy rate within the existing range of 5.25%-5.50%. The pivotal moment came during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and his responses to questions. Powell's comments had a substantial impact, causing a sharp decline in the US Dollar and US Treasury bond yields and triggering a strong recovery in the price of gold. While Powell did not entirely rule out the possibility of another interest rate hike, the markets interpreted his words as less hawkish than expected. He acknowledged factors like tighter financial conditions, a robust job market, a resilient economy, and elevated inflation levels. The drop in US Treasury bond yields was also influenced by a quarterly Treasury announcement, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of its longer-dated auctions. The increase in 10-year Treasury bond auctions was $2 billion, falling short of the market's $3 billion expectations. This led to a decline of over 20 basis points (bps) in the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield, which reached its lowest point in over two weeks at 4.7089%. Furthermore, the US Dollar faced headwinds due to mixed economic data. The US ADP private sector payrolls for October showed an increase of 113,000, below the estimated 130,000. The US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October dropped to 46.7, falling short of the expected 49.0. Additionally, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) report revealed that the number of job openings on the last business day of September slightly rose to 9.55 million, up from a revised 9.50 million in August and surpassing the forecast of 9.25 million. As for Thursday's trading, the price of gold is building upon its previous recovery. Investors are carefully considering the future path of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, with expectations for rate hikes in December and January being scaled back. Some market participants are even beginning to price in the possibility of Fed rate cuts as early as June next year. The ongoing global stock market rally led by the Fed's policies is expected to continue weighing on the safe-haven US Dollar. This trend persists as traders shift their focus away from events such as the Hamas-Israel conflict in anticipation of Friday's release of US Nonfarm Payrolls data. In addition to these factors, gold traders are also keeping a close eye on the monetary policy decision of the Bank of England (BoE), scheduled for later in the day. The key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting. A dovish stance from the BoE is likely to boost stocks further while exerting downward pressure on the Pound Sterling, which, in turn, could alleviate some of the stress on the US Dollar. Nevertheless, the price of gold continues to hold upside potential, supported by its daily technical setup.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by sabellaFX
1
#DXY more bullish outlookHello, everyone. I hope you're all having a great week. Let's analyze the DXY chart and try to make some predictions for the upcoming week. Last week, the price was rejected from the important low indicated on the chart and also established a new 4-hour high, as evident in the chart. Consequently, the market structure in the 4-hour time frame is now in alignment with the higher time frame, daily market structure, and they both exhibit a bullish trend. Given this scenario, our primary interest lies in taking long positions in high-probability trading zones. These zones could be around the short-term low marked with an arrow or during a pullback to the broken short-term bearish trendline. In the meantime, as we await the price to reach these levels, we will closely monitor the market. Once the price approaches these areas, we will be looking for confirmation signals before considering our trades.
TVC:DXYLong
by mohemati
2
Mastercard Suffers A Fall Following Earnings - But Up 7%Mastercard's stock experienced a 5% drop following its latest earnings report, despite surpassing expected earnings. Analysts had predicted earnings of $3.21 per share for Q3, but the actual figure was $3.39. This outperformance, however, did not translate into positive market sentiment, as the stock price fell after the market opened on October 28th. This decline reflects the complex dynamics between company performance and investor expectations. The stock found support at $359 after a 14% drop from its September 2023 peak, where it failed to break the $420 mark. Over the last decade, Mastercard's stock has grown by 428%, but since April 2021, its growth has slowed, with the stock oscillating between $276 and $420. Despite these fluctuations, the overall trend remains bullish. Currently, Mastercard's stock is up 7% for the year, showcasing resilience amid market volatility. The focus now is on whether the stock will break out of its current range and resume its long-term upward trajectory.
NYSE:MA
by Sublime_Trading
💡GOLDOZ: Signs of decline are forming?Gold had its second consecutive day of price decline after the news Employment Cost Index q/q and CB Consumer Confidence were announced. The H1 gold price push down has broken through the accumulation price range above to go down, but has not created a new low price bottom and broken the latest bottom, so it has not created a downtrend. With the current downward pressure on prices, H1 gold can wait for a rebound to sell. If the price is pushed up to the old peak, it is a sign that H1 gold is stronger again, then you can wait to buy.
TVC:GOLDShort
by Stone_Haven
USDJPY: The Japanese Yen continues to fall sharply as Tokyo With the EUR/JPY exchange rate at 160.80, the 2008 peak, and the USD/JPY exchange rate at 150.75, the yen is continuing its downward spiral to a new low throughout the day. This occurred when Tokyo dispelled any rumors that it was still protecting the price by confirming that it did not interfere in the currency markets in October. The BOJ doesn't seem to be planning to become involved in the yen today, therefore it looks like the currency will perform as expected. Tokyo's attempts to defend its currency could backfire given all of the BOJ's recent dovish actions.
Short
by TrategySherpa
💡 EURUSD: Potential Resistance areaThe EURUSD is nearing the initial resistance level at 1.0630, with a subsequent resistance at 1.0660. If these levels are breached, there's a strong possibility of an upward price trend encountering further resistance zones. For today, keep a close eye on the resistance at 1.0630 and potentially 1.0660 if the price retraces. If a selling signal materializes at either of these levels, it may be a suitable opportunity to initiate a sell position. In the event of a significant price surge, we will adopt a wait-and-see approach to evaluate the market's structural conditions before making any further calculations.
Long
by Stone_Haven
💡 GOLD: Forecasts continue to increase❤️ Hello all traders. Hope you have a nice weekend. Here is some gold information next week ➡️ The ongoing surge in gold prices is likely to persist, given the persistent tensions in the Middle East. Commodity strategist Daniel Ghali from TD Securities Company has pointed out that the potential for increased gold acquisitions remains high if the Middle East conflict escalates further, as gold has traditionally served as a reliable "safe haven" for preserving capital, especially in the face of a strengthening USD and escalating geopolitical concerns. ➡️ Consequently, numerous forecasts anticipate a continued uptrend in gold prices for the upcoming week. In a survey conducted by Kitco News involving 11 Wall Street analysts, 6 of them expressed optimism about gold's price increase. Meanwhile, 3 analysts anticipate a decline in precious metal values, and 2 expect gold to remain relatively stable.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Stone_Haven
💡 BTCUSD: Sideway after a strong spikeThe 7-day streak of price increases came to a halt following a decrease yesterday. However, it's worth noting that yesterday's downward movement, represented by the D1 bar, exhibited a narrow range and a minimal lower shadow, indicating that the selling pressure lacked significant strength. Moreover, there are ongoing signs of excess, particularly in the form of overbuying. This marks the third consecutive day in which BTCUSD has remained in an overbought state. When an asset is overbought, it tends to be more prone to a downward correction rather than a continued upward trend. Although the BTCUSDT chart structure supports an overall uptrend on this timeframe, it would be prudent to await a corrective downward move before considering a buying opportunity.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Stone_Haven
💡 BTCUSDT: Accumulated for many daysBTCUSDT experienced two consecutive days of price gains over the weekend. However, on Saturday, the daily candlestick formed a bearish pin bar pattern with a long upper shadow and a close at the midpoint, indicating resistance from sellers in the upper range. Sunday's daily candlestick saw a modest increase but traded within a narrow range, failing to surpass Saturday's high. In summary, the two-day price increase doesn't suggest a significant upward pressure. On the BTCUSDT H4 chart, the price continues to consolidate within a relatively tight range. Given that the BTCUSDT D1 chart has been in an overbought condition for several recent price bars, and the H4 chart typically trends upwards before consolidating, the prudent approach at this moment is to await a price decline towards key support levels before considering long positions. Avoid chasing the price higher to minimize the risk of falling into bull traps, as analyzed on the daily chart.
Long
by Stone_Haven
💡 EURUSD: Next predictionEconomic Challenges of the EU Region: The primary concern for the EUR is the unfavorable combination of growth and inflation in the EU region. Disappointing activity data in the region is a persistent trend, which is even more striking given the persistent downgrade of eurozone growth expectations. Pessimistic target: Based on cited concerns, HSBC is bearish on EUR/USD, predicting a move towards 1.0220. HSBC takes a short position from 1.0576 with a target of 1.0220.​
Short
by Stone_Haven
💡EURUSD: under pressure from the US economyThe USD index stabilized at approximately 106.57, with investors analyzing the potential implications of recent positive economic data in the United States on the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Data released on Friday revealed an increase in U.S. consumer spending in September, driven by higher purchases of motor vehicles and increased travel, which is expected to continue supporting economic growth in the final quarter of the year. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, despite the prevailing anticipation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming policy decision later this week, the market is factoring in approximately a 19% probability of a rate hike occurring in December. "The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains a significant concern for the financial markets," commented Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. In currency markets, GBPUSD experienced a marginal decline of 0.02% to reach $1.21195, while EUR also saw a similar 0.02% decrease, bringing it to $1.0563.
Short
by Stone_Haven
2
#DXY Possible scenarioHello, traders. Let's take a look at the DXY chart and discuss the possible movements of this chart for the next couple of days. As we know, the price recently broke below an important bullish channel for the first time since July 4th when this major bullish run began. However, as you can see, it failed to break below the previous low, which has been identified as an important support level. Based on Dow theory, the bullish trend is still intact since we have not violated the most recent lower low. So, we currently have two conflicting signals. One is bearish due to the breakdown of the long-term bullish channel, while the other is bullish because the price hasn't breached the last low. Furthermore, following the rejection of the low, the price moved higher impulsively, suggesting that buyers are still active. This is another bullish indication. However, the formation of a descending triangle chart pattern, which is bearish in nature, provides a mixed signal. For trading and as a personal opinion, the current price area may not be the best entry point into the market. Additionally, any upside breakout of the triangle chart pattern could potentially be a false breakout and may not be an optimal trading opportunity. However, if the price retraces lower to test the previous low and fails to break below it, we might consider taking a long position on the US dollar. If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
TVC:DXYLong
by mohemati
3
💡GBPUSD: Challenges in British Retail ➡️British retailers had a tough time in October with their sales hitting a low point, and they anticipated a more challenging November due to the burden of rising living costs. In general, the survey corroborates a string of gloomy business outcomes, indicating the potential for the UK economy to stall or even experience a mild recession. ➡️The GBP/USD pair initially dropped following the release of US GDP data, but it later rebounded and is currently trading below the 48-hour moving average. Given that the MACD double line and the histogram bar have displayed a divergence near the zero axis, there is a possibility of a short-term recovery for the British pound.
Short
by Stone_Haven
💡 GBPUSD: Wait to sell at the right opportunityThe most recent economic data indicates that the British economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, and members of the Bank of England may soon vote in favor of reducing interest rates. While the Bank of England is expected to maintain stable interest rates for an extended period, awaiting sufficient evidence to support multiple rate cuts, when these reductions do commence, they might be more significant than what the market anticipates. Current market expectations fall short of estimating the extent of rate cuts over the next two years, currently standing at just 85 basis points. As observed on the H4 chart, the GBP/USD currency pair is declining after a brief recovery. Geopolitical uncertainties are prompting investors to seek refuge in the US dollar due to its attractive swap rates, which are bolstering the USD's position. Meanwhile, market attention is focused on the 1.2000 threshold, and a breach of this level could potentially pave the way for the exchange rate to regress to 1.1850.
Short
by Stone_Haven
Mth-long Consolidation for Profits GBPUSD currently exhibits a Weaker Buy signal, accompanied by a 5-week long consolidation phase. Trading Decision Dilemma: The month-long consolidation prompts a crucial decision: Will it be a buying or selling opportunity? Buying Opportunity: For those inclined towards a buying stance, watch for the completion of the Bullish Butterfly Pattern at 1.1951 for a potential entry. Aggressive Selling Approach: Traders seeking a more aggressive move may consider the Bearish Butterfly Pattern on the 1-hourly chart, providing an opportunity to short at 1.2180. Now, the pivotal question arises: Bull or Bear? Which side aligns with your trading strategy? Share your thoughts below!
Short
by RaynLim
💡 GOLDOZ: Show Resilience with Second Consecutive Gain🟢Gold saw its second consecutive day of gains today, following yesterday's positive performance. On the daily chart (D1), the price exhibited significant upward momentum, with a wide trading range, but it closed approximately halfway between the high and low, forming a spinning top candlestick pattern. This pattern, known as a Spinning Top, typically indicates a market in balance, with supply and demand levels closely matched throughout the trading day. 🟢Notably, the previous day's D1 candle closed above the upper boundary, suggesting the possibility of overbought conditions and potential for a downward correction. The price faces a strong resistance near the 2,000 zone, which may prove challenging to surpass. Nevertheless, the overall daily chart structure for Gold remains bullish. 🟢Turning to the hourly chart (H1), Gold is currently trading within a relatively narrow price range, indicating a period of sideways movement. The formation of higher highs and higher lows on the H1 chart suggests upward pressure. Given the overbought condition observed on the D1 chart and the presence of significant resistance, traders monitoring the H1 chart may consider waiting for a pullback before considering long positions. 🟢However, should the H1 price break below recent lows and start trending lower, a downtrend on the hourly chart could emerge, providing an opportunity to explore short positions.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Stone_Haven