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Trendtrading

Where is the Top for Bitcoin’s Current Rally? How Should We InteIn this chart, we can see Bitcoin has gone through three main phases: "Decline," "Transition," and "Rise." In the "Transition" zone, the price stopped falling and didn’t set a new low, pausing at 48,888.0. This can be seen as a sign of market stabilization, suggesting that selling pressure is starting to weaken and the market has reached a relatively balanced state. Following this, the price gradually lifted, showing a "higher highs and higher lows" trend, which generally signals that buyers are gaining control and the market may be entering an upward cycle. During this phase, the EMA200 has acted as a crucial support line, further confirming the formation of an uptrend. Conclusion: From the price pattern perspective, Bitcoin's upside potential doesn’t necessarily point to a specific target, like $100,000, which is more of a round number and psychological level rather than a standard based on objective analysis. However, by watching for a secondary high and observing multiple tests of that level, we can more accurately gauge whether the price is nearing a peak. When the price forms a noticeable secondary high (slightly below a previous high) and tests that level multiple times, it can be an early signal that the rally might be reaching its limit (similar to the pattern from March to May this year), potentially followed by consolidation or a pullback. In other words, only when the market repeatedly tests a certain level near the peak without breaking it should we start to consider that the upward momentum may be reaching its end.
by CycleStudies
Weekly S&P ProyectionSince the market did not correct as expected, this opens up the possibility for a new period of euphoria. As show in the graph this has happened before from the year 2020 to 2022. Price is typically considered to not follow a normal distribution, therefore using one to estimate if price is over extended has its flaws. This is because the true distribution of a security is a multinomial distribution, where price can either go up, down or stay equal. The reason price behaves in such an odd manner is because price, has 2 unknown probabilities. Such probabilities can be calculated for the past, but not for the future. These are the probability of a price increase, and the probability of price staying the same, consequently the probability of price decreasing will be 1 minus the sum of the two previous probabilities. The value of such probabilities also fluctuates, and is determined by the market. When a market becomes overexcited, the probability of price increasing is closer to 1 than it's other counter probabilities. When this happens, a normal model no longer becomes suitable for estimating the limits of the distribution. If one has a multinomial distribution, thought of as a graph with nodes in a shape of a 3D tree, where each node has a relationship with 3 subsequent nodes. Where each relationship carries one of the probabilities mentioned before (with no repetitions). Starting with 1 initial node, then 4 then 16 … previous+previous*3n. One is able to create a mental map of true, the price action distribution. From these, one could calculate new limits, by using bootstrapping. However, since the computational power of such algorithm is complex, we can use the mean returns indicator to evaluate the trend and see that currently the trend is positive. This would mean that the probability of increasing is most likely also closer to one. If the mean returns were at 0 then the probability of price staying the same would be closer to one, and if it's below zero the same is true for a downtrend. Currently, the trend is positive, and not close to the theoretical limits of price action. This means that the probability of seeing a skewed distribution in the future are relatively high. However, if you still use a normal distribution to estimate the limits, then price is due for a correction. Only time will tell, as over excitement can move markets past their technical limits, and that is something that will always be a flaw in any technical approach to model price action.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by DarkMessiah777
GOLD MCX - 1D TIMEFRAME - ANALYSIS Pure Price Action-Based Trading Plan Buy Position: Enter a buy position if the price breaks and closes above ₹78,700. Targets: Target 1: ₹79,500 Target 2: ₹80,500 Target 3: ₹82,000 Stop Loss: Place the stop loss just below ₹77,000 to limit downside risk. Sell Position: Enter a sell position if the price breaks and closes below ₹76,300. Targets: Target 1: ₹75,500 Target 2: ₹74,500 Target 3: ₹73,000 Stop Loss: Set the stop loss above ₹77,000 for this trade. Given the overall bullish trend, it would be safer to lean towards a buy on breakouts rather than anticipating a reversal. However, a break below support could open the door for short-term selling opportunities. This approach relies purely on observing price behavior at key levels rather than indicator-based signals.
MCX:GOLD1!
by rddtqpek
1
AUD/CAD Sell Strategy: Testing Resistance with Downside Targe Trade Setup: AUD/CAD is currently selling at 0.9266, targeting 0.8939. Key Resistance Level: The 0.9270 level acts as resistance, aligning with a significant Fibonacci retracement. Recent High & Low: High: Recent high around 0.9380. Low: Current low near 0.9102. Technical Signals: Resistance at 0.9270 marks a potential reversal zone, reflecting selling pressure. Bearish momentum is expected toward 0.8939, which is contingent on sustained downward movement. Market Context: Recent highs and lows frame a broad trading range, with Fibonacci levels adding technical validity to sell-side positions near resistance​
Short
by MahabubAabir
Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!Chart Analysis Summary In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend​​. Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move​. Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction​. Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios Based on Entry Types from your strategy: High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top​. Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout​​. Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately. Strategy Application: Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel. Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs. Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations​​.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
Gold’s Next Big Move: Election Night’s Hidden Chart Signals!This is an image of the original Video tutorial i made walking through XAU/USD Chart Analysis Summary In both charts, we see a prominent ascending channel on a higher time frame (HTF), suggesting an overall bullish structure initially. However, there are signs of potential reversals, especially around critical levels where price fails to break higher and instead forms correctional structures. The ascending channel shown aligns with The Rule of Three, as it often precedes reversals after the third touch due to exhaustion in the trend​​. Reversal Signal: Double Top with Bearish Flag The first chart illustrates a double top pattern within the broader ascending channel, a common reversal signal. This pattern suggests a weakening bullish momentum, aligning with a probable corrective phase. Following the double top, we observe a bearish flag or descending channel, indicating that the price may continue downward after a break. This aligns with Patterns within Patterns, where a smaller bearish flag within a larger corrective structure increases the probability of a downside move​. Bull Flag Structure and Liquidity Zone Testing The second chart labels a large bull flag on the higher time frame (4H) near a liquidity zone. The corrective phase within this flag aligns with the market psychology of retracement after an impulsive move. Multi-Touch Confirmation indicates that these structures gain credibility with multiple touches on key support/resistance lines, making the upcoming third touch a critical point for deciding the direction​. Potential Entry and Exit Scenarios Based on Entry Types from your strategy: High-Probability Entry: Enter on a break of the corrective structure (such as the bear flag or descending channel) following multiple touches. Place a stop loss above the recent high if you’re anticipating a downside continuation, using a reduced-risk entry if you see low-momentum candles and ascending channels close to the top​. Wait for Confirmation: Given the corrective nature, it might be safer to wait for a confirmed breakout rather than entering at the top without solid confirmation. Back-tested data often shows better results when entries are taken after the third touch or initial pullback post-breakout​​. Confluence of Multi-Touch and Patterns The multi-touch confirmation method supports the idea of a third touch before a potential breakout or breakdown. Additionally, patterns within patterns enhance reliability, as seen with ascending or descending channels within larger structures, suggesting the market’s next probable moves more accurately. Strategy Application: Assess the Momentum: Enter on the first pullback (flag formation) after a significant breakout if momentum is strong. For a conservative approach, watch for a third touch on the boundary of the corrective channel. Risk Management: As part of your trading plan, place stops conservatively to avoid getting caught in corrective waves, as tight stops near liquidity zones may result in unnecessary stop-outs. Psychological Preparation: Avoid the perfectionist trap; if the confluence signals are strong but not perfect, following the 80/20 rule may be more beneficial than waiting for ideal entries, as markets rarely align perfectly with expectations​​.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Adlercon333
Reversal into downtrend setup taken with DJ30 today explainedIn this video, I walk you through my entire thought process during today's trading session. You'll learn how I selected the pairs and executed three key trades: * NAS Uptrend Continuation long (BE) * Silver Parabolic Reversal Short * DJ30 Reversal into Downtrend I'll also provide a detailed explanation of the Reversal into Downtrend setup, helping you understand how to apply this strategy in your own trading. Reversal into downtrend is one of my personal A+ playbook setups. Don't miss out on these valuable insights and tips!
OANDA:XAGUSD
by TC888