CADJPY at strong resistance in the Daily chartHistorical context: +60% up since 2020
The CAD/JPY pair has demonstrated a remarkable upward trajectory since March 2020, recording an impressive increase of over 60%. This surge can be partly attributed to Japan's prolonged monetary policy, which maintained negative interest rates while many other countries raised their rates to combat inflation following the pandemic.
Recently, the Bank of Japan signalled a significant shift in its monetary policy, indicating its intention to begin raising interest rates. This development has provided a boost to the Japanese Yen. The current pullback represents the sharpest decline observed since the onset of the uptrend in 2020, potentially signalling a change in market direction. This analysis will delve into the recent price action, loss of key support levels, and critical areas to monitor.
Technical Perspective: Key Indicators
Break Below the 200-Period Moving Average
The recent breach below the 200-period moving average signifies a weakening uptrend. This movement suggests a potential reversal in the prevailing direction, accompanied by increasing selling pressure. The 200-period moving average is often regarded as a critical threshold separating bull markets from bear markets, making a drop below this level particularly significant.
Accelerating Downward Movement
The decline observed between 10 July and 5 August marks the steepest drop in CAD/JPY since 2020. Most notably, this downturn has effectively engulfed all gains made by CAD/JPY over the previous 12 months. The acceleration of this downward movement underscores significant selling interest in the pair.
Fibonacci Analysis and Price Structure
Following the breakout of the SMA200 on the daily chart, the price has retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level of the recent downtrend. The 50% level is often viewed as a critical area of interest that can present opportunities aligned with the primary trend. The confluence of the 50% level with the 200-period moving average marks a pivotal point for sellers at this juncture.
Possible Sell Scenario
Given the breach of the 200-period moving average and the prevailing price structure indicating a potential reversal, a selling opportunity may arise if the pair continues to exhibit weakness.
A sell signal could be triggered if the price breaks below the uptrend line on the daily chart (highlighted in black). Initial targets for this sell-off could include the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 105.7, with an extended target around the 103.00 region.
A stop loss should be established if the price demonstrates a clear breakout above the range defined by the 50% Fibonacci level and the SMA200 on the daily chart, situated around 111.20.
The CAD/JPY pair is beginning to exhibit signs of exhaustion following a prolonged uptrend. The breach below the 200-period moving average and the testing of Fibonacci levels suggest a potential period of correction or reversal ahead. Close monitoring of price action around the 108.229 and 110.258 levels will be crucial in validating any potential short entries.
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