Mainly short gold, but there is still an opportunity to go long.Bros, since gold has chosen to break down and fall below the short-term support of 2620, it is obvious that the gold bears have a slight advantage in the struggle. So in trading, we mainly focus on shorting gold. The current short-term resistance area has shifted to the 2630-2635 area, so in short-term trading, we can short gold with the 2630-2635 resistance area;
But on the other hand, even if gold continues to fall, it is difficult to completely reverse into a short trend before today's NFP market, which limits the downside to a certain extent. The support area below is in the 2610-2600 area; so once gold falls back to this area, I will still try to go long on gold again; but we need to be careful that once gold falls below 2600, it is likely to continue to fall to around 2580.
Trading strategy:
1. Short gold with 2630-2635 area as resistance;
2. Try to long gold with 2610-2600 area as support (only try once)
3. It should be noted that once gold effectively falls below 2600, it is very likely that gold will continue to fall to 2580 area
Bros, how are you going to trade gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Trend Lines
Ark's next peak?Hello, fellow traders! Long time no see. I apologize for the late post.
This is my analysis on Ark (ARKUSD).
1️⃣ Analysis
Looking at the daily chart of Ark, we notice a big spike in 2018 with price reaching near 12 at its peak. We then see a much smaller spike in 2021 with the price reaching 3.5, followed by an even smaller spike in late 2023 with 1.9. We see the price under 1 USD if not for these spikes as we are now. These kinds of volatile movements suggest that Ark might have been subject to market manipulation over the years and there’s even a paper about Ark being a target of ‘pump and dump’ scheme. While I cannot say for sure, the chart data is convincing to such allegation.
Zooming into the recent bars, we see the price gradually reaching the price action zone. This zone, as the name suggests, has shown multiple price actions in the past. With BTC breaking through the major resistance level and peaking its new high every day, Ark could also benefit from such a rally – one certain thing is that it will be a bad idea to trade against the current market sentiment.
2️⃣ Expectations
With the historical bull rally on its side, Ark might attempt a breakout of the zone as we’ve seen in other cryptos recently.
However, there are several factors I want to address.
The previous crucial breakouts were all delivered with decisive and strong momentum – breaking through the price action zone with a single bullish candle (or multiple smaller ones). This would’ve allowed us an opportunity to enter long after confirming the rebound at the retest. However, the current movement of Ark is not showing such momentum. Instead, it is slowly and steadily approaching the zone, increasing the possibility of a rebound.
But here’s the twist: With Bitcoin recently breaking through the resistance line after some consolidation and Tron also breaking through the demand zone and recording new high (despite its slow uptrend over the year), this is a time of great uncertainties and adventure – we cannot assume that the zone will be respected for Ark, either.
Another factor is that we see a very similar pattern in February 2019.
We see a decisive, strong bearish momentum in November 2018 (just like we see in June 2024) and a ‘relatively’ steady uptrend in February (just like we see in September 2024).
This was the time when Bitcoin started a bull run with its price quadrupling in 5 months from 3k to 13k. Meanwhile, Ark failed to break through the zone even with such momentum in the market. This suggests that Ark may not always follow the market movement.
So here’s the summary.
1. The crypto might be a target of market manipulation based on its unusual chart movements and studies.
2. The only significant breakouts have happened with a strong, temporary momentum breaking through the zone which we don’t see right now. Instead, we see a slow and steady approach to the zone.
3. The crypto has past of not following the market movement as Bitcoin quadrupled its price in few months.
➡ These sets of mixed information really give me headache and I apologize if you came here for a prediction. But below are some suggestions for how we might make profit from such a confusing analysis.
3️⃣ Key approach
Our first strategy is to enter long after conformation. There are three possible entries.
The first and the most obvious one would be entering after 1. Breakout of the zone and 2. Rebound at the retest. Our initial exit would be slightly below 0.78672. Our next exit would be slightly below the resistance line of the uptrend channel, around 0.81. Our next and final exit is very interesting, though. If the price continues to rise after the first two exits, this could potentially signal the 4th spike.
I found something interesting as I was analyzing the chart – as you see in the chart above, the price of each spike’s peak has been very close to the square root of the previous spike’s peak so far. Of course, there’s no guarantee that this pattern will continue, but if it does, the next peak would be around square root of 1.86380, which is 1.36521 - applying the error, the estimation would be 1.28330. So, this would be our final exit.
I want to make clear that this is not a prediction, it’s a vague idea of where we might want to close our long position in the future. We don’t know the future. We don’t even know if the pattern will continue, and it only has been a year since the last spike, too. My point is you are fine with exiting earlier and frankly I would recommend that, too.
Our second entry would be after 1. Break of Structure at the price of 0.78672 and 2. Rebound near the resistance line of the channel. Honestly, I don’t recommend this entry as much because trading outside of the trend leaves us with a lot of uncertainties just like the current status of Bitcoin.
Our initial exit would be slightly below 0.87789. I recommend exiting slightly below the major line to play safer – price may not touch the line at all. Our next exit would be slightly below 0.98261. If the price ever surpasses these two exits, our final exit would be around 1.28330 (which also happens to be close to the peak on March 14th.)
Our third entry would be entering after confirming the rebound near the support line of the channel. This entry is most unlikely due to the current market sentiment, yet it is the safest of all three entries. Our exit would be below the price action zone.
4️⃣ Other approach
Our second strategy is to wait until the price reaches near 1.28330, which is my estimation for the next spike’s peak. After confirming the rebound, we will then enter short. Our ideal exit would be the price action zone, but feel free to exit whenever – it could be very stressful watching the market moves.
Personally, I would close the position before the price ever reaches the zone. I learned to be thankful and satisfied with the profit even if it is not as big as it could’ve been. Nobody really knows the future: it’s probably better to lock in profit while you can. I say this because I know how stressful it gets – EVEN IF the price eventually reaches the target price. This also works for me because I can rotate my assets into new opportunities more often as a full-time trader.
I want you to view my exit points as ‘an ideal time and price to exit’ rather than a fixed one, is what I wanted to say.
5️⃣ Considerations
Like I mentioned couple of times, Ark could be subject to ‘pump and dump’ scheme so keep that in mind and be extra cautious. Also, the crypto only has market cap of 109 million USD which is very small.
I’ve also mentioned that Ark has a history of not following the market movement. And it doesn’t seem to follow it right now, either. However, two recent spikes were indeed fueled by Bitcoin’s aggressive uptrend in December 2020 and October 2023. This mix of information gives us a lot of confusion which leads to my conclusion below 😅
React, don't predict! Stay disciplined and patient. Don't get greedy and be thankful.
God bless :)
Deuteronomy 6:5
Thank you for reading the long analysis and I apologize for the late post. I’ll try to post more frequently.
Bitcoin has tested a previous resistance as support Bitcoin has tested a previous resistance line as support here at 97,000 USD.
This has occured at the same time as a short term diagonal support. so things are looking favourable for now. Short term SMAX is sitting nicely at >50, so a good time to add to your SMAX position.
Marco: Mcro remains positive with the post trump confidence, interest rates over their peak with weak data suggesting they will need to continue downward.
Cycle: We are late into the bull cycle with the second half pump on its way, best to maintain position long to ensure we capture it.
Levels: as above, we have confirmed a small previous resistance line as support and with short term smax looing favourable >50%.
Momentum: we are still in a short term bearish momentum, within a overall marco long momentum, I don't expect the short term bearishness to continue much longer.
Currently 5 profitable trades, 0 losses, Follow me on YouTube and X for the history of my trades.
Join me to learn about the SMAX trading approach!
GBPCAD: Important Breakout 🇬🇧🇨🇦
GBPCAD broke and closed above both a significant daily horizontal resistance
and a falling trend line.
The broken structure compose an expanding demand zone now.
The market has a great potential to continue rising.
Next resistance - 1.8
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
POV : BLUESTARCO : Fractal BreakoutPOV : BLUESTARCO : Fractal Breakout
Chart Reading:
1. Price was stuck in 17 sessions of the 7th November day's Range.
2. Daily and Weekly Trends and Momentum are bullish.
3. Previous 2 Fractals (Double Top) breakout
For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please consult a professional before making financial decisions.
#NiVYAMi
THE END OF THE GOLDEN ROADGold had failed to break above 2700s resistance area and is showing bearish pressure making LHs and LLs. Currently it is a bit choppy but is overall still bearish and is failing to break above 2650s price area. Next target is 2500s price area for the continuation of current trend.
GOLD HAS BROKEN MANY SUPPORT 🥇 Gold has broken many support levels such as 2640-2630 to extend the decline this morning. In today's Asian session, watch for the recovery to continue to sell gold, aiming for the support zone of 2607-2600.
Gold has broken the triangle pattern around 2638 - And if the H4 candle closes below 2620, it will break the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern
🛫Therefore, watch for the recovery to continue to sell gold.
Long Gold AgainWe just bought gold near 2632, and then gold rebounded above 2643. I just closed our long position near 2642 and easily earned 100 pips.
At present, gold has fallen back to around 2626. Although we just missed the opportunity to short gold, when gold falls back, as long as gold does not fall below the 2625 line, I think the gold fall is still an opportunity to go long on gold, so I just went long on gold again near 2628. I think we should be able to make at least another 100 pips profit. Anyway, wish us good luck!
Bros, have you gone long on gold? If you want to learn more detailed trading ideas and get more trading signals, you can choose to join the channel at the bottom of the article to make trading no longer difficult and make making money a pleasure!
Finally the end of the bear, start of the bull?Hello hodlers,
hello traders,
i used the same title back in 2020:
And " searching the bottom " is finally over.
My last update was like:
" Third time this year, we try to get above 30k.
Until proven otherwise, we are in a bear... "
Dont get me wrong!
It is possible & will be in the future...
Even if we are in the bull now,
we could see big retracements!
I show in this chart a potential time and price for our next sell zone.
Last time after the breakout it took 44 weeks.
This is where the red box is starting.
Last time we hit the FIB 2.618 level and more.
But we now, every time it will be less explosive.
I slowly will start at FIB 1.618 with my sells.
How you already filled your bags, but if not.
Dont buy now, after several green weeks in a row.
Wait for the next 20-40% correction.
Good luck everybody!
BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bullish Trend ContinuesBitcoin has shown a strong bullish pattern on the 7-hour chart, specifically an ascending triangle which indicates bullish accumulation and has broken through its resistance.
The current setup includes a trend line and a broken horizontal structure forming a contracting demand zone.
It is likely that the bulls will continue to drive prices higher.