Get started

Trendfollowing

TESLA SELLOFFS 📉My forecasts of seeing more of TESLA’s stock price plummet 📉 have been correct! Since the start of the week, we have seen sharp drops in TESLA’s price. Elon Musk promised not to sell more of his shares, but his word shouldn’t be trusted because he once said such and still sold some of his TESLA shares. All stock indices had a bearish Thursday. TESLA closed at -8.8%, the highest selloff for the week. Last week investors complained, telling Elon Musk to focus seriously on TESLA & not TWITTER. We will see what happens on Friday. TESLA’s selloff has been on demand concerns also. It’s been reported TESLA is implementing a hiring freeze and a new round of layoffs which would begin in Q1 2023. All of these fundamental factors could lead to more selloffs in TESLA’s stock price 📉
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by MoveFX
Entering long in Sugar futures We have entered long in Sugar futures. This position is not validated with all the patterns of our TTW system, so the percentage of liquidity assigned to the series of positions is very low. Using our algorithmic trend-following system, Sugar futures are at 3-year highs, with an RSI of 63.57 on the weekly chart, and 65.64 on the monthly chart. The asset has broken one horizontal resistance and is above the 210, 70 and 14 SMAs, with a crossover between the 14 and 70 SMAs. We have targets around 24 in the coming months, but there is a high probability of a pullback. In the event of a pullback, we could re-enter. Position : Entry: Market price Guaranteed trailing stop loss: 0.4% of the portfolio. Target: 24-25. Financial Engineering: Futures (without OTC derivatives)
ICEUS:SB1!Long
by blockmas
SPX: Back to BEAR MODE? Key Points to watch from here!• Today, SPX is rejecting yesterday’s bullish reaction; • Today, the index did a Breakaway Gap (blue square, 1h chart), as this gap is breaking the 21 ema, a technical support level. If the SPX doesn’t fill this gap quickly, the bearish sentiment will gain momentum; • In the 1h chart, it dropped to fill a gap at 3,831. Only if the index reacts amazingly well, and closes above the 3,831 again, it would have a chance to bounce to higher levels again – but this reaction must occur as soon as possible, filling the Breakaway Gap in sequence; • If this gap fails in supporting the price, along with the support at 3,818 (another gap support in the daily chart), the daily chart suggests a continuation of the bearish sentiment at least to the 3,744 (red line); • So far, there’s no meaningful technical reaction. I’ll keep you updated. Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
EURAUD - Long EOD set upThe technicals give me the signal but if anyone is interested in rate hikes and fundamentals, may be take a slice of advice from Bank of America. © Oliver Levingston Merrill Lynch (Australia) oliverllewellyn.levingston@bofa.com • The RBA will likely deliver a third consecutive 25bp hike next week. A cooler monthly inflation print has investors betting on a lower terminal rate in 2023 • The AU curve still looks too steep and we see inflation risks as increasingly skewed to the upside. Slowing down, not a slowdown We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hike the cash rate by another 25bp to 3.1% at its 6 December meeting. Markets are pricing in a 76% chance of a 25bps hike (24% chance of a pause) as at the time of writing. The message will echo its determination to keep the economy on ‘an even keel’, balancing the challenge of suppressing rising inflation with the risk that rate hikes could tip the economy into recession. The RBA has moved cautiously on rate hikes: not only was it slow to lift off, waiting until May 2022 to do so; it also surprised markets by downshifting to a 25bp hike in October, becoming the first major DM central bank to slowdown the pace of rate increases. It then stuck to its gradual hiking pace at its November meeting, despite a strong 3Q CPI print (see RBA review: Sticking to 25, 1 November 2022). The RBA has cited the high frequency of its meetings – the RBA meets 11 times, the FOMC and ECB each have 8 meetings scheduled per year – as a reason why it can afford to take a gradual approach. Market pricing reflects increasingly dovish sentiment – markets are now pricing rates to rise to just 3.5% in mid-2023, down about 30bps in a month. Optimism on rates grew after the RBA’s monthly CPI for October, released on 30 November, showed both the headline inflation slowing to 6.9%YoY (vs. 7.3% in Sep) and the trimmed mean measure easing to 5.3%YoY (5.4% in Sep). However, we caution that for October, the new monthly series contains only 62% of the price data used in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ (ABS) quarterly CPI – it omits, for example, new information on many administered prices such as utilities, which are not priced until the final month of the quarter. For these reasons, the RBA has stated that “the quarterly CPI is likely to remain the principal measure of CPI inflation in Australia for the foreseeable future,”1 making it premature to call for a peaking in inflation based on the October monthly CPI print. Nor does it change the fact that inflation is likely to remain well above the RBA’s target band of 2-3%. Yet the RBA will likely remain less hawkish than its counterparts overseas. Australia’s Wage Price Index (WPI) has only recently started to pick up above 3%. The RBA does not yet see signs of a wage-price spiral, though it has stressed the need to remain vigilant. It noted in its November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) that “reports of higher labour costs contributing to price increases have so far been largely contained to price increases have so far been largely contained to a few specific sectors.” A softer retail trade print (-0/2% MoM) and Governor Lowe’s apology before the Senate for the RBA’s (abandoned) promise to hold interest rates steady out to 2024 have added to growing expectations of a lower terminal RBA rate. For these reasons, the risk of a recession in AU in 2023 remains a low probability and the risks to inflation remain skewed to the upside, in our view. The RBA’s restrained approach, sustained strength in the labour market and a continued boost from a record term of trade make an economic contraction less likely than peers. We do not have cuts in our profile. Waiting for the wave The main risk reflected in market pricing and the RBA’s published commentary is that households have not yet sustained the full impact of rate hikes. We have pencilled in hikes until May 2023 just before the mortgage rate reset wave accelerates in mid-2023. The maturity profile of fixed-rate mortgages taken out when lending rates were as low as 2% suggests the “cliff” may have traction. The line of questioning at Governor Lowe’s attendance before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee and public speeches from the RBA confirm that fixed-rate mortgage resets are at the front of their minds when they consider risks to the economy. Yet Australia continues to enjoy meaningful protection from downside risks, in our view. A positive terms-of-trade shock that has reduced Australian Government funding requirements also means the challenges of housing headwinds should be easy for policymakers to counteract should we see signs of household distress in 2023. At the same time, a long period of low unemployment is likely to generate higher wages and partly offset the dampening effect of rising loan payments on consumer demand, reducing the risk of a housing-led downturn. On the upside, the prospects of a substantial shift away from COVID Zero policies in China continue to gather pace as a steady stream of announcements suggest the country is like to gradually reopen in 2023. The Chinese reopening could boost Australian GDP and increase the scope for the RBA to tighten rates further. We see the RBA holding rates at 4.1% from May 2023. A rise in cash rates and signs of economic resilience should mean a flatter curve. We have also maintained a view that the AU 2s10s curve is too steep relative to other developed markets (a positive slope of 40bp for AU government bonds compared to -72 for the US). We continue to like a box flattener (AU steepener vs US flattener) and outright AU curve flatteners.
Long
by Macrobriefing
Shorting Palladium FuturesPalladium is in a strong downtrend right now. In fact, in the Trend Following Market Trends Barometer , it is the strongest trend with a value of over 70%. We are opening short positions at market price with a very strong risk management metric - as always - aiming to surf the downtrend and lose only 0.5% of our portfolio value if there is a pullback. Our target is around 1505, but the exit will be through volatility and trailing stops. As we can see, the trend has an RSI of 39.70 on the weekly chart. It is below the 210, 70 and 14 SMA's, and has broken a trend line support. There are opportunities to follow the trend. We can open more positions further if the trend remains bearish and close them on a percentage basis if sharp pullbacks occur. Again, it depends on volatility and trailing stops. The system is automated. Product. Palladium futures (NYMEX). No CFDs or other OTC derivatives for now. Position: Sell, market price. Stop loss: around 1 800 (trailing stop, we can re-enter if there is a pullback). Target: Around 1 500 (we won't manually close, the TL stop will). Resizing: We can open more positions if the trend is strong. Risk: High.
NYMEX:PA1!Short
by blockmas
Beginner's Guide To Moving AveragesMoving averages are without a doubt the most popular trading tools. Moving averages are great if you know how to use them but most traders, however, make some fatal mistakes when it comes to trading with moving averages. In this article, I show you what you need to know when it comes to choosing the type and the length of the perfect moving average and how to use moving averages when making trading decisions. What is the best moving average? EMA or SMA? In the beginning, all traders ask the same questions, whether they should use the EMA (exponential moving average) or the SMA (simple/smoothed moving average). The differences between the two are usually subtle, but the choice of the moving average can make a big impact on your trading. Here is what you need to know: The differences between EMA and SMA There is really only one difference when it comes to EMA vs. SMA and its speed. The EMA moves much faster and it changes its direction earlier than the SMA. The EMA gives more weight to the most recent price action which means that when the price changes direction, the EMA recognizes this sooner, while the SMA takes longer to turn when the price turns. Pros and cons – EMA vs SMA There is no better or worse when it comes to EMA vs. SMA. The pros of the EMA are also its cons – let me explain what this means: The EMA reacts faster when the price is changing direction, but this also means that the EMA is also more vulnerable when it comes to giving wrong signals too early. For example, when the price retraces lower during a rally, the EMA will start turning down immediately and it can signal a change in the direction way too early. The SMA moves much slower and it can keep you in trades longer when there are short-lived price movements and erratic behavior. But, of course, this also means that the SMA gets you in trades later than the EMA. What is the best period setting? When you are a short-term day trader, you need a fast-moving average that reacts to price changes immediately. That’s why it’s usually best for day traders to stick with EMAs. On the other hand, Swing traders have a very different approach and they typically trade on higher time frames (4H, Daily +) and also hold trades for longer periods of time. Thus, swing traders should first choose an SMA and also use higher period moving averages to avoid noise and premature signals. The best moving average periods for day-trading 9 or 10 periods: Very popular and extremely fast-moving. Often used as a directional filter (more later) 21 period: Medium-term and the most accurate moving average. Good when it comes to riding trends 50 period: Long-term moving average and best suited for identifying the longer-term direction The best periods for swing trading 20 / 21 periods: The 21 moving average is my preferred choice when it comes to short-term swing trading. During trends, price respects it so well and it also signals trend shifts. 50 period: The 50 moving average is the standard swing-trading moving average and is very popular. Most traders use it to ride trends because it’s the ideal compromise between too short and too long term. 100 period: There is something about round numbers that attract traders and that definitely holds true when it comes to the 100 moving average. It works very well for support and resistance – especially on the daily and/or weekly time frame. 200 / 250 period: The same holds true for the 200 moving average. The 250 period moving average is popular on the daily chart since it describes one year of the price action (one year has roughly 250 trading days) How to use moving averages Trend direction and filter you can use a fast EMA to stay on the right side of the market and filter out trades in the wrong direction. Just this one tip can already make a huge difference in your trading when you only start trading with the trend in the right direction. The Golden Cross and the Death Cross But even as swing traders, you can use moving averages as directional filters. The Golden and Death Cross is a signal that happens when the 200 and 50-period moving average cross and they are mainly used on the daily charts. In the chart below, I marked the Golden and Death cross entries. Basically, you would enter short when the 50 crosses the 200 and enter long when the 50 crosses above the 200 period moving average. the screenshot shows that during the last bitcoin cycle if you stuck to the moving averages you would have been profitable most of the time both in the long and short directions. Also please notice how when the market is moving sideways it's not favorable to use the moving averages. I will end this article here, I hope you now have a better understanding in moving averages and how to utilize them to follow the trend.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by m3rr0r
EURUSD shortI am personally short the EURUSD at the start of the London session. If you are looking for a Bullish scenario then maybe follow Credit Suisse who say Support is seen at 1.0510 initially, with the low from Friday and 13-day exponential average at 1.0428/1.0397 ideally holding on a closing basis to keep the immediate risk higher. A close lower can see a deeper setback to 1.0305/1.0290. The Credit Suisse House View is neutral on EURUSD on a 3-6 month horizon. We stay bullish for key retracement resistance at 1.0612/15. Support is seen at 1.0510, then 1.0428.
Short
by Macrobriefing
USDJPY trailing stops, EURJPY short comingThe yen’s up by nearly 8% against a correcting dollar, and by more than 10% against all the Latam currencies which have been the best FX performers this year. Back in 1998, USD/JPY was halfway through a correction that took it almost back to 100, after rallying from just above 100 to just below 1 150 in1996/1997, and then falling back in 1998/1999. A cynic might point out that US/JPY has averaged 108 over the last 30 years, gyrating in the 75-150 range. All sound and fury, but not actually signifying much! Purchasing Power Parity was never of any use for forecasting but on that basis, USD/JPY was, until a few weeks ago, a chapter relative to the dollar than it has been at any point since the end of Bretton Woods. Over 50 years, USD/JPY has averaged 150, PPP has averaged 170. A 20% JPY overvaluation. From there 40% undervalued is an extreme move and while we can understand why it happened, the potential for a whipsaw correction similar in magnitude to what we saw in 1998/1999, 2002/2004, 2007/2011, or 2016, is clear. Japanese investors have been significant sellers of foreign bonds this quarter, hardly surprising but a positive for the yen on days when geopolitics, energy prices, and the BOJs current policy stance aren’t dominating the market. The story this morning (and catalyst for the yen’s bid, focuses on anti-Covid-Zero protests in China, which have punctured some of the re-opening optimism and hurt risk-sensitive currencies everywhere but AIUD, NZD, and KRW in particular. AUD wasn’t helped by weak retail sales., either. The euro started slowly but has found a bid amid ongoing slightly hawkish ECB rhetoric. Ahead, we have CPI data this week (Germany tomorrow, EZ on Wednesday) and we expect lower core inflation for the Eurozone, and I’m not confident of a break in EUR/USD 1.05 (which would drag money into the euro) but will be watching. EUR/GBP is currently failing to break lower, which may mean GBP short covering is all but complete, though sentiment is bad enough to prove sterling with more support than it deserves. The rest of the week will see attention on Friday’s labor market data in the US and Canada, month-end, and football. © Sociéte Genérale The USDJPY has been falling along with yield curves and oil. The yen is clearly strengthening as the drag effect of monetary policy and the energy crisis wains. But it could also be the canary in the coal mine that reflects the market's mood around China and the disruptions happening there. The yen is a safe haven currency and usually, the yen is the indicator that not all is well in the world. Though the US dollar has been the ultimate safe haven due to the rate differentials. The market is trying to tell us something. The EURJPY is about to follow the USDJPY and this means we could potentially have a trend trade about to start.
Short
by Macrobriefing
2
#EURCHF bearish move possibility from 2 areaAs you can see in the chart bearish impulsive move followed by a corrective bullish move which shows price intention of moving lower after completing its corrective move. now in this case we need to be looking for an area where corrective move may end. for a bearish move to resume price need to take out enough liquidity in order to move down, as it can be seen in the chart 2 areas are close to price with enough liquidity resting above it. the closer is above the previous candle in the form of bearish engulfing and the further out area is a local top which formed in the bullish corrective move which price already test it twice and there are huge amount of liquidity there. For taking a position from any of these 2 areas you need to remember: that price need to tap into a area clearly. but unable to close above the area. also it is possible that price fail to reach the zone but to engage in a position it should fit your strategy.
Short
by mohemati
Will The EURUSD Re-Enter Consolidation?The EURUSD went on a 25% decline in 2014 through to 2015. WIth such a steap drop in only a matter of months, it was only natural that price would fall into a long period of consolidation. The consolidation period lasted much longer than anticipated. It lasted for 7 years and we eventually saw price break through the consolidation support in July this year. Price even declined below the 1.0000 round number only to come back up and retest the support turned resistance level at 1.0462. If this is just the beginning of a long-term bear trend then we should eventually see a reversal at the current resistance level. The EURUSD does trend really well, and in a short period of time so if a trend does unfold, it will require you to be alert and ready as a trend in the forex market can be easily missed. The current resisatance level also has the daily 200 simple moving average acting as resistance. The first contact was made on November 15th and again on November 23rd. All signs are indicating impending weakness. Keep following our posts for continuous updates. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
by Sublime_Trading