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Trendfollowing

Gold Finding Support At $1764Gold has experienced turbulence after trying to trend above the $2000 round number in August 2020. All appeared fine at first but price soon started to decline and has since formed an area of consolidation between $1764 and $2075 which is the current all-time high. Price dipped below the daily 200 simple moving average in November 2020 but quickly moved back above this level. Then from early January 2021 price started to interact with the 200sma once again and then began to decline further below this indicator this month. As the 200sma has now failed as support, we have to look at the next level price may come down to. In this case, it is the low of the consolidation at $1764. Since interacting with this support level, price has reacted and started to move back to the upside. This does not mean that we won’t see a further decline, it just means that this level is holding for now. To confirm that this level is holding price up long-term, we want to see price move back above the daily 200sma and following that we want to see price form higher highs and higher lows. We will continue to apply patience to Gold and take advantage if and when we see a resumption of the overall bull trend. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLD
by Sublime_Trading
USD/JPY: Extending pullback13:20 GMT - The corrective pullback is extending, whilst daily stochastics and the Tension Indicator continue to track lower, with the break below 105.50 adding fresh weight to sentiment. Focus is turning to congestion around 105.00 and the 104.80 Fibonacci retracement, where already oversold intraday studies could prompt short-term consolidation. Meanwhile, immediate resistance is at 105.50. A close above here would help to stabilise price action, but a close above 106.00/10, not yet seen, will turn sentiment outright Positive and confirm continuation of January gains.
Short
by Continuum_Economics
USD/JPY: Extending pullback13:20 GMT - The corrective pullback is extending, whilst daily stochastics and the Tension Indicator continue to track lower, with the break below 105.50 adding fresh weight to sentiment. Focus is turning to congestion around 105.00 and the 104.80 Fibonacci retracement, where already oversold intraday studies could prompt short-term consolidation. Meanwhile, immediate resistance is at 105.50. A close above here would help to stabilise price action, but a close above 106.00/10, not yet seen, will turn sentiment outright Positive and confirm continuation of January gains.
Short
by Continuum_Economics
USD Index DXY: Consolidating - weekly charts positive16:10 GMT - The pullback from 91.00 has all but reached 90.50. Prices are currently balanced above here, but negative intraday studies suggest risk of further slippage towards the 90.10 Fibonacci retracement, where improving daily stochastics and the flattening Tension Indicator could prompt fresh consolidation. Following corrective trade, rising weekly charts point to fresh gains, but a close above 91.00 is needed to prompt a cautious upgrade and open up the 91.32 retracement. Critical resistance, however, remains at the 91.60 weekly high of 5 February. A close above here is needed to confirm continuation of January gains and open up 91.98/00.
TVC:DXY
by Continuum_Economics
2
USD Index DXY: Consolidating - weekly charts positive16:10 GMT - The pullback from 91.00 has all but reached 90.50. Prices are currently balanced above here, but negative intraday studies suggest risk of further slippage towards the 90.10 Fibonacci retracement, where improving daily stochastics and the flattening Tension Indicator could prompt fresh consolidation. Following corrective trade, rising weekly charts point to fresh gains, but a close above 91.00 is needed to prompt a cautious upgrade and open up the 91.32 retracement. Critical resistance, however, remains at the 91.60 weekly high of 5 February. A close above here is needed to confirm continuation of January gains and open up 91.98/00.
TVC:DXY
by Continuum_Economics
5
Gold Undecided at Support/ResistanceIn the previous post on Gold, we could clearly see a reversal at the weekly 50 simple moving average proving this to be a strong level of support. So far this week and price has now moved below the 50sma displaying a bearish candle at the moment but the important thing to note is the closing candle at the end of the week. If price closes above the 50sma again at the end of this week then it further reinforces this level as strong support. If price closes below the 50sma then we may see further moves to the downside but as the overall trend is up, the bias is indicating towards a bullish continuation. It is just a waiting game now to see what price will do next as we hold onto our position which was opened in the summer of 2020. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:GOLD
by Sublime_Trading
S&P 500 Strengthening Through FebruaryThe US market was closed on Monday due to Presidents Day but closed the previous week on a high making a new all-time high. As this is the first trading day of the week, there is little activity so far but we may see the momentum continue to push price higher this week. Alternatively, the market could pull back towards the 20sma or the 50sma. Just above these indicators, we have the previous all-time high at $3870 which may also act as support. The trend at the moment is strong and linear in nature and edging ever closer to the $4000 round number. This psychological level of resistance could force price around or we may see some turbulence here before price continues on its ascent. As far as we know, the market is bullish overall and stocks are still performing well so we can expect this trend to last for a number of months and potentially over a year. Our goal during the trend is to compound on winning positions and maximise our returns along the way up. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
EUR/USD: Scope remains for a break to 1.2200Little change, whilst prices extend consolidation aroubd 1.2150. The daily Tension Indicator continues to track higher, highlighting a break, but overbought daily stochastics and negative weekly charts are expected to limit any tests/break of 1.2200 in fresh selling interest. Meanwhile, support remains at 1.2100 and extends to the 1.2082 low of 12 February. A later close beneath here will add weight to sentiment and open up 1.2050. Any deeper reactions, however, should stabilise above 1.1975-1.2000.
by Continuum_Economics
4
EUR/USD: Scope remains for a break to 1.2200Little change, whilst prices extend consolidation around 1.2150. The daily Tension Indicator continues to track higher, highlighting a break, but overbought daily stochastics and negative weekly charts are expected to limit any tests/break of 1.2200 in fresh selling interest. Meanwhile, support remains at 1.2100 and extends to the 1.2082 low of 12 February. A later close beneath here will add weight to sentiment and open up 1.2050. Any deeper reactions, however, should stabilise above 1.1975-1.2000.
by Continuum_Economics
GBP/USD: Breaking higherConsolidation is giving way to a fresh break higher to 1.3900, as intraday studies track steadily higher. Both daily and weekly Tension Indicators remain positive, highlighting scope for further gains in the coming sessions, with a close above 1.3900 extending March 2020 gains towards historic congestion around 1.4000 and the 1.4030 weekly high of late April 2018. However, overbought daily stochastics are expected to prompt profit-taking around here. Meanwhile, support is at the 1.3866 weekly high of 10 February. A close beneath here, if seen, will turn sentiment Neutral and open up deeper losses towards 1.3800.
Long
by Continuum_Economics
GBP/USD: Breaking higherConsolidation is giving way to a fresh break higher to 1.3900, as intraday studies track steadily higher. Both daily and weekly Tension Indicators remain positive, highlighting scope for further gains in the coming sessions, with a close above 1.3900 extending March 2020 gains towards historic congestion around 1.4000 and the 1.4030 weekly high of late April 2018. However, overbought daily stochastics are expected to prompt profit-taking around here. Meanwhile, support is at the 1.3866 weekly high of 10 February. A close beneath here, if seen, will turn sentiment Neutral and open up deeper losses towards 1.3800.
Long
by Continuum_Economics
USD Index DXY: Turning away from 90.00/1014:50 GMT - The pullback towards 90.00/10 has found fresh support at 90.25, whilst intraday studies track higher and oversold daily stochastics flatten. The break above 90.50 has opened up the 91.00 break level, but the falling Tension Indicator is expected to limit any immediate tests in fresh consolidation. Weekly charts continue to improve, however, suggesting a later break and a run towards critical resistance at the 91.60 weekly high of 5 February. Meanwhile, support remains at 90.00/10 and should continue to underpin any immediate setbacks.
TVC:DXY
by Continuum_Economics
USD Index DXY: Turning away from 90.00/1014:50 GMT - The pullback towards 90.00/10 has found fresh support at 90.25, whilst intraday studies track higher and oversold daily stochastics flatten. The break above 90.50 has opened up the 91.00 break level, but the falling Tension Indicator is expected to limit any immediate tests in fresh consolidation. Weekly charts continue to improve, however, suggesting a later break and a run towards critical resistance at the 91.60 weekly high of 5 February. Meanwhile, support remains at 90.00/10 and should continue to underpin any immediate setbacks.
TVC:DXY
by Continuum_Economics
5
EUR/USD: Consolidation before higherThe corrective bounce from the 1.1952 weekly low of 5 February is settling into consolidation below 1.2150, whilst overbought intraday studies unwind. Daily stochastics and the Tension Indicator continue to track higher, however, highlighting a later break above 1.2150, but overbought momentum readings and negative weekly charts are expected to prompt fresh selling interest towards 1.2200. Meanwhile, support remains at 1.2100. A close beneath here, if seen, will turn sentiment cautiously Negative and put focus back on congestion around 1.2000.
by Continuum_Economics
2
EUR/USD: Consolidation before higherThe corrective bounce from the 1.1952 weekly low of 5 February is settling into consolidation below 1.2150, whilst overbought intraday studies unwind. Daily stochastics and the Tension Indicator continue to track higher, however, highlighting a later break above 1.2150, but overbought momentum readings and negative weekly charts are expected to prompt fresh selling interest towards 1.2200. Meanwhile, support remains at 1.2100. A close beneath here, if seen, will turn sentiment cautiously Negative and put focus back on congestion around 1.2000.
by Continuum_Economics
GBP/USD: March 2020 rally gaining traction11:45 GMT - Short-term consolidation around the 1.3775 Fibonacci retracement has given way to fresh gains, whilst intraday and daily studies continue to improve, with prices now trading above 1.3800. Focus is turning to 1.3900, but rising weekly and monthly charts highlight still further gains, and extension of the broad March 2020 rally towards historic congestion around 1.4000 and the 1.4030 weekly high of late April 2018. Both daily and weekly stochastics are already overbought, suggesting initial tests of here could give way to profit-taking pressure. Meanwhile, support is raised to the 1.3759 monthly high of 27 January. A close beneath here, if seen, would turn sentiment cautiously Neutral and delay gains, as focus then turns to congestion around 1.3700.
Long
by Continuum_Economics
GBP/USD: March 2020 rally gaining traction11:45 GMT - Short-term consolidation around the 1.3775 Fibonacci retracement has given way to fresh gains, whilst intraday and daily studies continue to improve, with prices now trading above 1.3800. Focus is turning to 1.3900, but rising weekly and monthly charts highlight still further gains, and extension of the broad March 2020 rally towards historic congestion around 1.4000 and the 1.4030 weekly high of late April 2018. Both daily and weekly stochastics are already overbought, suggesting initial tests of here could give way to profit-taking pressure. Meanwhile, support is raised to the 1.3759 monthly high of 27 January. A close beneath here, if seen, would turn sentiment cautiously Neutral and delay gains, as focus then turns to congestion around 1.3700.
Long
by Continuum_Economics
USD/JPY: Corrective pullback13:25 GMT - The anticipated exhaustive run towards the 106.00 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a pullback, as unwinding intraday studies prompt fresh selling interest and push prices below 105.00. Overbought daily stochastics are also unwinding, and the positive Tension Indicator is turning down, highlighting a deterioration in sentiment. Focus is on 104.50/58, with a further break opening up the 104.20 retracement. Meanwhile, a close above 105.00, if seen, would turn sentiment Neutral and put prices into consolidation below 105.50.
Short
by Continuum_Economics
USD/JPY: Corrective pullback08:40 GMT - The anticipated exhaustive run towards the 106.00 Fibonacci retracement has given way to a pullback, as unwinding intraday studies prompt fresh selling intraday and push prices below 105.00. Overbought daily stochastics are also unwinding, and the positive Tension Indicator is turning down, highlighting a deterioration in sentiment. Focus is on 104.50/58, with a further break opening up the 104.20 retracement. Meanwhile, a close above 105.00, if seen, would turn sentiment Neutral and put prices into consolidation below 105.50.
Short
by Continuum_Economics