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Trendfollowing

Microsoft Up 1739 Points!Microsoft has progressed nicely since the last post a week ago, moving up 1739 points at the time of posting and still moving strong. Price has not made contact with the weekly 50 simple moving average since March 2020, but it has been using the daily 20 & 50 simple moving averages as support. We have been seeing deep pullbacks since 2020, but from June 2021 the behaviour of price has changed and we are seeing more of a linear clean move. Earnings came out on July 27th, which didn’t disrupt the flow of price. A mini consolidation has followed earnings and we now await a breakout above the current all-time high at $290. A break and close above the recent high will confirm a trend continuation and a move towards the $300 round number. How will price react to the $300 round number? This is anyone’s guess, but the momentum should take price higher over the long term. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Sublime_Trading
S&P - The Calm Before The Perfect Storm?The July 14th high continues to act as support following the breakout that occurred on July 23rd. This was a strong breakout but it was not followed by a strong continuation to the upside. On August 3rd, the low of the wick came close to tagging the 20 simple moving average by 2 points. Despite the 20 simple moving average also holding price up, it appears there is a lack of momentum in this market at the moment. The overall trend remains bullish so the bias is for a breakout above the all-time high at $4429. This is where patience comes in, often investors become complacent and do not remain ready for opportunities when the markets are going sideways. Every market will experience some sideways movements while in a trend, so this behaviour is quite normal. We are in earnings season, and some stocks are seeing huge jumps to the upside while others are dropping like flies. The positive moves should outweigh the negative ones overall as long as you keep your losses small and your winners big. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
1
Could Bitcoin Be On The Move?Bitcoin formed a high at $42,000 on January 8th 2021, which was then followed by a pullback. Price then broke above that high to create a new all-time high at $64,894 on April 14th 2021. The buyers soon gave control back to the sellers, and in May 2021, price came down to $42,000 and used this level as support for a couple of days. It did appear that this level was going to hold, but on May 19th 2021, price broke down through this level with a large bearish candle that came just points away from hitting $30,000. Panic ensued, and ever since then, price has been in consolidation, bouncing around between $28,600 and $42,000. Price now appears to be approaching $42,000 once again, and if the momentum pushes price hard enough to break out above this level, then we also want to see price move above the daily 200 simple moving average. At the moment, Bitcoin continues to move sideways, but a breakout to the upside or the downside of the consolidation zone will give us an early indication of where price may be heading to next. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sublime_Trading
S&P 500 Still Gearing Ahead!The S&P 500 continues to use the 20 and 50 simple moving averages as support along the trend that is currently in play. On July 19th 2021, price pulled back to the 50 simple moving average yet again which coincided with a previous resistance turned support level at $4257. A nice clean bounce from this level took price above the previous all-time high at $4393 where price is now hovering. When price broke above this level, we wanted to see a nice continuation of solid bullish bars, but instead, we are seeing this level acting as support after only a couple of days from breaking out. This does not mean much based on the bigger picture as the bull trend still looks strong. But we could see another pullback to either the 20 and 50 simple moving averages. As long as the trend remains bullish, we will continue to look for long opportunities in both the UK and US stock markets. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
AUDUSD bulls have a bumpy road aheadAUDUSD refreshes intraday low under 0.7400 threshold as covid woes escalate in Australia, taking down the overall risk sentiment amid pre-Fed cautious mood. The same reverse the Aussie pair’s breakout of a three-week-old resistance line, portrayed the previous day, by staying below a broad horizontal resistance area since July 09. Hence, the quote is likely to retest the previous resistance line, near 0.7355, before challenging a weekly support line around 0.7340. Should AUDUSD bears keep reins past 0.7340, the monthly low near 0.7288 will be on their radars. Meanwhile, the stated resistance area surrounding 0.7400–7410 guards the quote’s immediate upside ahead of a descending trend line resistance from June 11, surrounding 0.7440. In a case where AUDUSD bulls manage to cross the 0.7440 hurdle, a 200-SMA level close to 0.7510 will be a tough nut to crack for the pair buyers. Hence, the bearish trajectory has multiple filters to the north and the risk-off mood keeps sellers hopeful.
Short
by MTradingGlobal
USDCAD gyrates inside key SMA envelope as FOMC week beginsUSDCAD holds onto a three-week-old support line, also staying between 50 and 100-SMAs of late. Even so, the gradually rising RSI line and an impending cross-over of the MACD line to the signal line keep buyers hopeful. However, a clear upside break of 50-SMA level near 1.2610 becomes necessary for the bulls to battle the 1.2680 and the 1.2730 resistances. On the top, the monthly high near 1.2810 becomes the buyers’ favorite, given the upside momentum gains fundamentals support from the Fed and BOC CPI. Bears have a comparatively tough task as the stated support line guards the quote’s immediate declines near 1.2560. Following that, 100-SMA level of 1.2525 and the early July top near 1.2450 will be crucial to watch. In a case where USDCAD sellers keep reins past 1.2450, an extended south-run to late June’s low near 1.2250 becomes the key to follow.
Long
by MTradingGlobal
Amazon Taking Off Like Jeff Bezos!While Jeff Bezos is flying rockets to space his company appears to be setting itself up for its own take-off. If we look back at this stock, we can see that price was in consolidation from September 2020 following a 116% bullish run from March 2020. Such a strong move was likely to cause long-term sideways movement as the market would have become exhausted from strong buying. The consolidation period went from September 2nd 2020 until the breakout on July 6th 2021. Price then broke out with a large bullish candle. Despite such a large breakout candle, this could have still turned out to be a fake breakout, and price could have returned back into the consolidation zone. This is why we wait for confirmation. Price appears to be in the process of confirming a continuation of the bull trend. The move up following the breakout has now seen price pull back to the resistance turned support at $3552. This level of support has held up so far, and the 20 simple moving average reinforces it. So both indicators have worked together to hold price up from declining further. Price has since bounced from support and looks set to make its way towards the all-time high at $3773 from the high of July 13th 2021. If price successfully breaks and closes above this level then this will be our confirmation of the bull trend continuation and we may even see a move above the $4000 round number. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by Sublime_Trading
Why I am Still Bullish Biased on GOLD | Price Action Basics 🥇 Hey traders, I want to clarify one thing concerning gold for you. Reading your questions I noticed that many of you are completely paralyzed. With a recent structure breakout & consequent bearish movement, many traders feel themselves completely lost. Basic price action rules always help to get an objective directional bias: 1750 level is our initial low, the price reached that level 29th of June and we saw a strong bullish rally from that. Reaching 1818 level the price retraced setting a new higher high. The retracement leg was completed around 1790 level. We the second swing up, the price managed to set a new high again. 1833 is our current local market high. With basic trend trading rules, we know that technically speaking the market remains in a "bull's zone" while it is trading above THE LAST HIGHER LOW level. The entire area between the last higher high and the last higher low is considered to be a buy zone for us. Our bias will change IF ONLY the price violates the last higher low level to the downside. Setting a new low, the price will initiate a new local bearish trend violating current bullish sentiment. Of course these rules are not 100% accurate, but in a long run they help you to properly read a price chart. ❤️Please, support this idea with a like and comment!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VasilyTrader
15
S&P Bounces Yet Again!Price at the start of the week didn’t get off to the best start as Monday opened up with a gap-down candle. Not only did price gap down, but it also closed with a large bearish candle. On a lower timeframe such as the 5-minute chart, the drop would have looked a lot more frightening than it actually was. If you have been following our posts for a while, you will know by now that we look at the bigger picture. Because the S&P is in a long-term bull trend, we understand that the decline was likely to be just a pullback. Of course, we were prepared in case it was the start of a bear trend, but there were clear indications that this was just a pullback. The first clue was that price came down and found support at a previous resistance turned support level at $4257. Not only that, but the 50 simple moving average acted as support. When you have two indicators around the same zone, it gives us a strong indication that price may find difficulty breaking through. And this seems to be the case here. The 20 simple moving average is also helping to keep price up, but price mainly finds support at the 50 simple moving average. The following day after hitting support, price made a complete reversal and is now heading back to the upside. A break and close above $4393 will confirm a continuation of the bull trend. We want to see price continue to trend strong and move towards the $5000 round number which is the next level of resistance. Should the S&P accomplish this, then the rest of the UK and US stock market will likely continue trending to the upside. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
Technical Analysis: Gold buyers brace for $1,850Gold prices recently pulled back from 50% Fibonacci retracement amid overbought RSI conditions on the four-hour chart. However, the commodity remains inside a monthly rising channel and the MACD signals are bulls as well, which in turn keeps gold buyers hopeful, Hence, a clear upside break of $1,834 immediate hurdle will propel the quote to the stated channel’s resistance line near $1,850 but any further upside may have to take a breather. Should the yellow metal keeps rising past $1,850, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,853 and the mid-June tops surrounding $1,870 will challenge the north-run. On the contrary, the latest pullback aims 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,814 but a confluence of channel support and 100-EMA, around $1,807 could trigger a fresh bounce. In a case where the gold defies the bullish chart pattern with a downside break of $1,807, the $1,800 threshold and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,790 may entertain sellers ahead of directing them to the previous month’s low near $1,750.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MTradingGlobal
Technical Analysis: Brent oil bulls aren’t out of the woodsBrent oil struggles to keep bounce off 200-SMA above $76.00 as sellers attack 50-SMA amid early Monday. However, MACD is about to positive while RSI is strong as well, not to forget the black gold’s sustained trading above the key SMA. Hence, oil buyers are bracing for a leap towards the monthly resistance line around $79.00, which in turn will refresh the multi-month high. In doing so, the latest high surrounding $76.30 and $77.50 may entertain energy optimists. Should the Brent bulls keep reins past $79.00, the $80.00 psychological magnet will be a tough nut to crack for them. On the downside, a clear break of $75.80, comprising 50-SMA, will direct short-term sellers towards 200-SMA support of $73.38. However, any further weakness needs to conquer a horizontal area from June 03, around $72.10, to recall the oil sellers. Following that, May 18 swing high near $70.30 may offer an intermediate halt during the fall to the $70.00 threshold and $69.00 support levels. Overall, Brent oil remains on the bullish trend and any pullback above $72.10, can be considered a buying opportunity.
TVC:UKOILLong
by MTradingGlobal
Is this a breakdown or a meltup?The choice is yours - you can see it any way you like. The technical features here are: 1. Reducing peaks of squeeze momentum. 2. Recent RSI is below 50. 3. Rejection of 4H ATR line. 4. Large area of consolidation. Caution: none of the above means that price has to crash. Just to be clear - price could well go to the moon. The technical situation in my assessment (at this time) means greater probability for the south. Probability estimates do not predict how far a movement may go. This is a set up for a trend-following scenario i.e. high risk to high gain. High risk means high probability of big losses, if you don't know what you're doing if you short this. Following a trend south means finding a suitable trend that is below the 4H time frame. There is no magic formula to work that out. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
A
by Captain_Walker
DJI (4H) - trend switch in sightTrend switches of the ATR on the 1D and 4H usually mean something on most charts. What they mean is a greater probability for price movement under the switch for short positions and above the switch for long positions. On this chart it does not mean that price cannot rise from under the switch. This is not how ATRs work. ATR's create probabilities. The situation is not predictive. No indicator can predict anything. If that was the case then everybody would just follow indicators and make millions. That's not going to happen. The snapshot picture is for a trend following setup which can be engaged on a lower time frame e.g. 5 min to 15 min. Note the hefty disclaimer below because trend-following set ups are high risk and very high gain. They are not easy and require significantly large stop-losses. Price can certainly move significantly north and head for the moon. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
FOREXCOM:US30
by Captain_Walker
S&P Keeps Soaring To Record Highs!Since our last post on June 22nd, price has progressed really well. Back then, the all-time high at $4275 was yet to be broken. It did go on to break this level and right now price is up 2.57%. Price was also rangebound back then, hovering between a high of $4257 and a low of $4056. Since breaking out, price has formed a nice neat linear move up, creating new all-time highs. As with most clean moves, we can expect to see a pullback and period of consolidation at some point. If this occurs, we have the 20 simple moving average below price followed by the 50 simple moving average. The 50 simple moving average does, however, fall inside the consolidation zone. The S&P continues to look strong and as long as it remains this way, we will continue to look for long opportunities in both UK and US stocks. Our role as investors is not to predict the markets, which is near impossible but to ride the waves, which is why we are able to ride the bull wave with such ease and success. We now want to see price continue to trend and move up towards the $500 round number. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading
Palladium Hits Strong Resistance! What Next?Since our last post, palladium has made good progress, moving up $90 to meet the resistance from February 2020. Price is at an interesting point, because a clean break above and we should see price move towards the all-time high at $3017. The weekly 50 simple moving average has aided this gradual upwards move. The first break of $2875 was short-lived as price came tumbling down and reentered consolidation in April/May. Price is still in consolidation, and the longer it does so, the bigger the move we can expect in the direction of the breakout. So should we see a breakout to the upside, which is the bias as the prior trend was bullish, we can expect a solid long-term uptrend to unfold. This is why we want to position ourselves to take advantage of any breakouts that may occur. It will require some patience while price sets itself up, but the reward will more than make up for the time sitting on the sidelines. We will continue to follow the journey of this commodity. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUMLong
by Sublime_Trading
Microsoft Trending Towards $300!Microsoft’s movement has been relatively predictable over the last few years, as you can see on the monthly timeframe. We have seen trends followed by consolidation/pullback, then trends again and so on. Currently, price is in the trend phase and there are also smaller areas of consolidation on the daily timeframe (not shown). The most recent consolidation period was from April this year and lasted up to last month, where price broke above the previous all-time high at $263. If price encounters another pullback, then the 50 simple moving average is below to catch price and act as support. The last time price made contact with this indicator was in March 2020. As price has remained a reasonable distance away from the 50 simple moving average, it highlights how good the trend currently is performing. Going forward, we want to see a more linear-looking trend develop, one with shallow pullbacks and smaller areas of consolidation. We now want to see price continue to trend towards the $300 round number as the bullish momentum builds up. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by Sublime_Trading
Brent oil buyers remain hopeful inside five-week-old channelAlthough the weekly falling trend line probes Brent oil buyers of late, the commodity prices remain inside an ascending trend channel from May 27, not to forget staying beyond 100-SMA. The same joins an upbeat RSI line to keep buyers directed towards an immediate resistance line of $76.00. However, any further upside will be questioned by the stated channel’s upper line, close to $77.50. In a case where the oil bulls remain dominant past $77.50, the late October peak surrounding $78.00 may test the rally targeting the $80.00 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, pullback moves become less concerned until staying beyond the 100-SMA level of $74.10, needless to mention the channel support of $74.50. Also acting as a downside filter is the $74.00 mark, a break of which will make the quote vulnerable to decline towards the mid-June lows near $72.00. It’s worth noting that Thursday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s US NFP, not to forget Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, become the key events for energy traders.
TVC:UKOILLong
by MTradingGlobal