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Trendfollowing

GLN @ 20 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- GLN - Previous analysis was done on 15 Sep -> suggested waiting for the next rebound wave for a better setup for entry - Since then, the stock has retraced back to re-test the $1 psychological support - Any strong break of the 1.00 support levels will also coincide with a structure break - Stock will have to rebound to around 1.19 levels to have any chance of a mid-term uptrend - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a series of Higher Highs and Higher Lows
ASX:GLN
by Jerm88
IGO @ 20 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- IGO - Previous analysis was done on 15 Sep -> suggested waiting for successful breakout of $10 psychological resistance - Since then, there was a false breakout and the stock quickly fell below the mid-term support with above average volume - Four of my other indicators are also borderline bearish - A Higher High and Lower Low was formed in the past week -> usually a sign of sideways consolidation - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for successful breakout of $10 psychological resistance
ASX:IGO
by Jerm88
BKW @ 20 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- BKW - First time doing a written analysis on BKW - In last night’s livestream, I mentioned that 25.00-25.50 levels used to be a resistance zone and it will be interesting to see if the stock can rebound of this zone and treat it as support - Today’s price action suggests that’s not the case. - Stock gapped down and fell to the mid-term support - Short-term average doesn’t provide a good support and/or resistance - A successful rebound will be above 25.50 levels - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for successful rebound before plotting entry
ASX:BKW
by Jerm88
ASX 200 @ 20 SEP 202120 SEP 2021 – Market Watch As predicted in last night’s livestream, the twin US events (ie. Last Friday’s Quadruple Witching Hour and the upcoming FOMC meeting) are dragging markets down this morning. At market close, the ASX 200 is down 2.1% to test the 7250 support levels created in July 2021. As mentioned last week, 7150-7250 levels (purple lines) will be a support zone for the index. Any break of this zone will also coincide with a structure break. We will have a better gauge on the Fed’s decision whether to taper by Thursday morning. If the Fed does decide to taper, I foresee a drop to potentially 6900 levels (orange line). If the Fed postpones the key decision to November’s meeting, we should be able to see an immediate challenge of 7400 levels again with a potential of even possibly re-testing all time high levels. This would also depend on how China deals with the Evergrande problem and whether there will be a shock to its financial systems. Some analysts have likened the Evergrande issue to the Lehman Brothers issue back in 2008 that precipitated the Global Financial Crises (GFC). I’m not super familiar with Evergrande but I don’t think there will be as big an impact to the world markets. There are three main reasons for my thinking: - (i) China has been reigning in their financial markets since the 1st half of 2021. Thus, there worldwide exposure isn’t as large as before. (ii) Even before the reigning in, China’s markets were not as big and open as the US. (iii) Since the GFC, all the big financial institutes have been forced (through regulation) to beefed up their financial reserves. Even with the Covid pandemic crash in March 2020, most financial institutes held strong and were not severely impacted like they did during the GFC. In terms of my strategies in the market, I will wait to see what happens this Wednesday (US trading hours) and that will guide what I do in the market. It’s too soon to engage bearish strategies. There might be short-term opportunities to short but from my experience, it’s better and safer to trade based on what I see, rather than what I feel. What do you think? Are you out of the markets completely? Or is this a juicy time to pick up undervalued stocks? If you find this market analysis helpful, let me know in the comments. May the markets be with us! Disclaimer:- I’m a mid-term trader and I hold my stocks between 1-3 months. I’m using Trend Following strategies and my analysis will be from a perspective as a Trend Follower. I’m sharing these analyses for learning purposes and as always, DYOR.
ASX:XJO
by Jerm88
DMP @ 17 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- DMP - First time doing a written analysis on DMP - Stock has history of uptrends that usually end with strong price increases (blue arrows) that is followed by the stock falling below the mid-term support (red arrows) - Since early Aug 2021, the stock price has risen more than 40% with almost no good setup for entries - Today, it gapped down to test the short-term support and recovered with above average volume -> good sign - A successful rebound would be around 164 levels - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a successful rebound before plotting entry
ASX:DMP
by Jerm88
ASM @ 17 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- ASM - Previous written analysis was done on 13 Sep -> suggested waiting for a successful rebound before plotting entry - Since then, the stock has had a weak test of 10.00 levels and is already a Structure Break in my books - Today’s price action with above average volume is interesting but still hasn’t broken through the counter-trendline (blue line) - If the stock fails to break the counter-trendline, another Lower High (LH) would form -> not good - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a series of Higher Highs (HHs) and Higher Lows (HLs)
ASX:ASM
by Jerm88
1
ILU @ 17 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- ILU - Previous analysis was done on 14 Sep - Suggested half entry at 10.40 levels (to manage risk) or wait for a retracement and successful rebound - Since then, the stock has dropped more than 9% to rest at the mid-term support - As mentioned previously, the stock has a history of strong retracements back to the mid-term support -> Today’s price action should not be a surprise - Technically not a structure break yet -> A close around 9.00 levels would be a structure break for me - A successful rebound would be a price recovery above 10.20 levels accompanied with good volume - R is borderline 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a successful rebound
ASX:ILU
by Jerm88
CAR @ 17 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- CAR - Previous analysis was done on 13 Sep - Suggested waiting for successful rebound at 25.75 levels before plotting entry - Today’s price action with above average volume looks good - If you missed the previously suggested entry, current levels still provide good opportunities - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest entry at current levels if believe the stock is capable of forming new all-time highs
ASX:CAR
by Jerm88
I'm in a EURCAD buy 📈💪We are using our trend following EDGE strategy for this trade. Entry details are shown on the chart. Working the M30 time frame on this strategy. We're only looking for TP3. Previous short trade can be seen on chart. Also trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency. In the back test report chart every trade is logged and can be viewed by clicking the tabs in the box. You as the viewer of this idea can also do that so go ahead and have a play. I'll follow this trade now until TP is achieved, a new signal presents or stop loss is hit. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren.
Long
by pow_removetheguesswork
JHX @ 16 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- JHX - Previous analysis was done on 13 Sep - Suggested entry around 53.90 levels if believe the stock can create new all-time highs - On 9 Sep, I suggested entry at 53.50 levels -> Today the stock closed almost 3% higher from the suggested entry - The stock created new all-time high - If you missed out the previously suggested entry, current price levels still present some buying opportunities - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest entry at current levels if believe stock can create new all-time highs
ASX:JHX
by Jerm88
JAN @ 16 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- JAN - First time doing a written analysis on JAN - Trend only started looking good in Dec 2020 -> has some sideways movement that can test the patience of some mid-term traders - Has been testing the psychological resistance of $1 - Stock is overstretched and quite far from the short-term support - R is borderline 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest breakout entry if comfortable with a potential sharp retracement
ASX:JAN
by Jerm88
INR @ 16 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- INR - Previous analysis was done on 31 Aug -> suggested waiting for retracement and successful rebound before plotting entry - Since then, the stock flew like a rocket - Today, the rocket’s parachute didn’t deploy -> Stock dropped almost 19% with above average volume - Today’s price action is nothing new as stocks that have gone up a lot usually will have a sudden and sharp price reversal - There is no structure break as of today but there is definitely a tear - If the stock continues to break to the to the mid-term support or even falls below the 50-cent psychological support, there is not much hope left for the stock - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a successful rebound
ASX:INR
by Jerm88
2
CNI @ 16 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- CNI - First time doing a written analysis on CNI - When I reviewed this on my livestream (5 Sep), I recommended to wait for a retracement to the short-term support and successful rebound before plotting an entry - Since then, the stock has tested the short-term support - Today’s price action like a successful rebound - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest entry at current levels if believe the stock is capable of creating new all-time highs
ASX:CNI
by Jerm88
ACL @ 16 SEP 2021Text me if you have any questions/comments for me. ----- ACL - First time doing a written analysis on ACL - Recently IPO-ed stock in mid-May – Has had some uptrends - Had some obvious retracement around 4.60 levels - Recently tested the short-term support and today, rebounded from there - A successful rebound would see the stock rise above the resistance of 4.60 levels - R is less than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting successful rebound before plotting entry
ASX:ACL
by Jerm88
GBPUSD is now a short 📉⤵️Entry details are shown on the chart. Working the H1 time frame on this strategy. We're only looking for TP3. Trade history can be seen below this trade idea too for full transparency. Previous trade was shared in an idea which has now closed for a small profit on this short trade presenting. That idea can be seen below. I'll follow the new trade now until TP, a new signal presents or stop loss is hit. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren.
Short
by pow_removetheguesswork
4
LIC @ 15 Sep 2021LIC - First time doing a written analysis on LIC - Stock has a good history of uptrends - 1st resistance (purple dotted line) – consolidated sideways for 4 months while still somewhat respecting the mid-term support - 2nd resistance (blue line) – consolidated sideways for 1.5 months while still somewhat respecting the short-term line - After breaking out, stock has had weak tests of the short-term support - Today’s nice bullish pin bar after a strong test of the short-term support is accompanied by above average volume -> good - After seeing today’s price action, I was tempted to get into the stock - Unfortunately, there is no good setup for entry unless you use intraday strategies - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a better setup for entry ----- Text me if you have any questions/feedback for me.
ASX:LIC
by Jerm88
IGO @ 15 Sep 2021IGO - Previous analysis was done on 10 Sep -> suggested waiting for successful breakout of counter-trendline - Stock has gapped up above the counter-trendline (purple dotted line) 2 days in a row but both times disappointingly retraced back - Potentially strong psychological resistance at $10 levels - The stock could retrace back to test the trendline (blue dash line) before attempting to breakout again - Stock could just fly tomorrow too - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for successful breakout of $10 psychological resistance ----- Text me if you have any questions/feedback for me.
ASX:IGO
by Jerm88
AGL @ 15 SEP 2021AGL - First time doing a written analysis on AGL - Stock has been in a big downtrend since April 2017 -> a drop of almost 80% - God bless the long-term investors as their capital is haemorrhaging - In all 3 markets (Australia, Malaysia, and US), there was a big crash in stock prices in March 2020 - Most of the stocks have recovered to above pre-Covid crash levels - AGL bucks the trend by creating new lows in August 2020 - Stock price has dropped more than 60% since that broken support - Downtrend stocks have a lot of overhead resistances -> not conducive for a good mid-term uptrend to form - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – There are other better stocks out there ----- Text me if you have any questions/feedback for me.
ASX:AGL
by Jerm88
4
NWF Olympic diver @ 15 SEP 2021NWF - First time doing a written analysis on NWF - Overall price action before mid-June isn’t attractive -> can signal to a lack of interest in the stock - Low average volume -> Below 300k - Low volatility uptrend with almost no pullbacks -> calm waters doesn’t mean there aren’t any crocodiles in them Pros - Since 2021, stock respects the moving averages - Quiet uptrend -> usually signals a short-term uptrend Cons - I’m not comfortable with penny stocks (less than 50 cents in my book) - Low daily average volume -> Price can move up/down suddenly if there is a huge purchase/selloff Summary - Yesterday’s retracement got me excited to see whether a successful rebound will happen - Today’s gap down and crash below the two previously respected moving average supports is too drastic. Almost as if the supports didn’t exist - In hindsight, the quiet uptrend looks like investors getting excited about the corporate action - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for a series of Higher Highs (HHs) and Higher Lows (HLs) ----- Text me if you have any questions for me.
ASX:NWF
by Jerm88
CXL Rocket @ 15 SEP 2021CXL - First time doing a written analysis on CXL - Since IPO, $1 levels were a resistance until Nov 2020 (purple dotted line) when it turned into a support. - R1 resistance – Sideways for more than 2 months - R2 resistance – Sideways for 2 months - R3 resistance – Sideways for more than 2 months - R4 resistance – Sideways for 1.5 months - R5 resistance – Sideways for 1 week before testing short-term support - Today, it strapped rockets and never looked back Pros - Stock respects the short-term support a lot - After testing the mid-term support, it usually breaks out from the overhead resistance after a few days Cons - Holding this stock would require a lot of patience as it take a couple of months of twiddling your thumbs before it breaks out - Low daily average volume -> Below 500k shares Summary - Yesterday’s test of the short-term support got me excited as this is the kind of rebound entries that I trade -> The setup for a rebound trade would have a borderline 10% risk - I’m not a patient person to wait a few weeks for my stocks to move; thus, I didn’t get in -> Hindsight is 20/20 of course - No good setup for entry unless you use intraday strategies - R is more than 10% - Strategy-to-buy (DYOR) – Suggest waiting for retracement and successful rebound
ASX:CXL
by Jerm88
Palladium Back At $2,000!Following the peak of the Covid pandemic in March 2020 when price declined by 48%, price turned around and gradually moved back to the upside, eventually breaching the all-time high 11 months later. In May 2021, price created a new all-time high at $3,017 before heading back down towards the weekly 50 simple moving average. The 50 simple moving average was an important catalyst in the growth of price and appeared as though is was going to hold as support again in August 2021. Price breached this indicator and has since moved further down to the next obvious level of support: the psychological $2,000 round number. If this support zone holds strong, we should soon see a bounce back to the upside and a bull trend resumption. The bigger picture shows us that price is in a long-term period of consolidation, which began in February 2020. The all-time high in May 2021 was just a fake breakout. For now, this commodity will likely prove challenging to invest in, so the safest option is to wait for a break and close above the all-time high at $3,017 before considering any long opportunities. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
TVC:PALLADIUM
by Sublime_Trading
S&P 500 Back At SupportSeptember is usually the weakest month of the year in the stock market, so we were ready and waiting for a pullback to appear. From September 2nd, we started to see a slow down in momentum as an indecision candle formed and from there price started to decline. The 20 and 50 simple moving averages are our expected levels of support, and as we can see, price is now in the space between these two moving averages. Since November 2020, both moving averages have acted well as support during the trend. Although price has moved below the 50 simple moving average at times, it has consistently resumed the trend and gone on to create new all-time highs. If support holds again, we need to see a break and close above the all-time high at $4,545, followed by a move towards $5,000. See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
SP:SPXLong
by Sublime_Trading