Bear trend with a Gap in the last sectionInteresting situation, the stock price is in a bear trend, the price reaches a lower level of the area of attention between the level price 411.15 and 453.29. Leaving a big gap between the close price of the day before. Statistically, the gap price is usually covered in the next sections. the trend looks very symmetrical and looks following the moving average of the 50 periods using it as a support. Let's see in the coming weeks.
Trendfollowing
The Bitcoin Breakdown of the downtrend. A NEW BULLRUN?The BTC price have been in a downtrend since its peak, early November 2021 at a price high shy of $70,000 US Dollars.
Since, price had decreased 50% plus to a local bottom around $33,000 US Dollars, Late January 2022. Followed by a relief
rally with a peak around $48,000 US Dollars, Late March. For then continue its downtrend to the support area around
the $18,000 US Dollars (that just around the price peak of late 2017). Recently, this month the price made a break of the
downtrend channel form by this price peaks/bottoms since November 2021. This break can be observe around the price of $19,300 US Dollars.
US100 - Nasdaq - Long IdeaAt the end of last week the Nasdaq, flushed through some stops and had a bearish close. For the bears, they are feeling trapped as there was no follow-through to the downside.
In fact the snap back signalled a bullish reversal.
Today we have broken higher out of the opening range and the initial balance. We're just waiting for that pop to confirm that today is the start of a push higher.
BTCUST UPDATE 22.10.2022#BTC UPDATE 22.10.2022📊
#BTC: $ 19,100
#ETH: $ 1,300
📊At 1H TF for Bitcoin, the situation with moving averages is approximately the same with 4H TF, since we have been standing in a range without volatility for a long time.
Now that range has begun to narrow (a triangle has been formed) and the buyer does not release the price from it, driving
large volumes on dumps, as yesterday, for example
Have a good weekend
USDJPY Up 18%The USDJPY is now up 18% since breaking out from the major resistance at
125.85 from the June 2015 high. In the recent post for the USDJPY, price was
up 11%, so it has seen good growth since then.
The move is no surprise as price broke out from long-term consolidation, lasting
almost 7 years. Following this strong current move, we can expect another period
of long-term consolidation. This is why we want to catch the big moves as they happen.
Price is now approaching the 150 round number which is a psychological level of
resistance. We may see price hesitate around this level. Whether price will break
beyond 150 or reverse will be down to who comes out on top, the buyers or the sellers.
We have multiple positions in this forex pair. We are now managing our positions and
will compound if and when the time is right.
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S&P 500 On Safe Grounds?The S&P 500 is at a major point because it is currently being held up by the
200 simple moving average, which, if it fails as support, could see price freefall
forming a bear market.
Back in March 2020, price breached the 200 simple moving average, but its
time below this indicator was short-lived as we saw a quick return back above
the 200 smiple moving average.
This is why we don’t want to enter short positions as soon as price moves
below the 200 simple moving average. Instead, we wait for confirmation of
lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe to avoid getting caught
up in a fake breakout.
Last week’s candle on the weekly timeframe shows a long wick below the
candle. The sellers attempted to force price further down, but the buyers
took control and were able to keep price at support.
We now want to see the buyers give price the momentum it needs to
bounce from support and resume the uptrend. As this is a major level of
support, if price breaks down and forms a bearish trend, we will start
looking for shorting opportunities.
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Dollar ShortAs noted last week I'm watching the dollar for the short position trade, I'm going to put on an entry here off the daily.
Quarterly:
- 10 year down trend turning into a flat market.
Monthly:
- Basically a year and a half of straight down with no healthy correction to speak of.
- 500 pips from 2 year average.
Weekly:
- 3 pushes overshooting the original trend. Most recent swing has stepped up back into the range.
Daily:
- Notice the parallel channel drawn off the most recent lower lows of this action.
- Notice the failed breakout of the top side resulting in the most recent lower low followed by a step up.
- Momentum swings on the most recent price action worth noting.
- Notice how the top Keltner channel is well outside of the the top price trend line but well within the bottom? I suspect we might be at the turning point here.
AUD/USD likely to move Up!Hey tradomaniacs,
well... market is crazy so be cautious with all trades as market doesnt really know what to price in.
So far the previous CPI data were first shocking but voerall showing the we could have seen the peek which is good for stocks & Co.
Nontheless there is still much to look at so I dont expect clear risk-on or risk-off the next weeks.
Technically we see a fakeout, breakout and now a nice retracement to go long.
What do you think?
AUDJPY Potential Selling Opportunity!Hello Traders,
In this week's trading session we will be monitoring AUDJPY for a Selling opportunity in and around 93.5 OB zone. Once we get a bearish confirmation the trade will be executed and shared with our premium subscribers!
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Dollar Short Setting Up?I think a failure test trade (Adam Grimes) will set up before ahead and shoulders or before we get a total breakdown and trend change.
Im picking tops with tight stops and lock in profits aggressively on the daily.
Stay Disciplined ya'll. Write your emotions down, don't trade them.
Ethereum Trade Idea 04/10Looking at a potential move to the upside for ETH - price has bounced away from the 1260 support area and now is looking to take on resistance areas such as the 1355 and 1375.
Any potential upside on ETH will be short as we look to the HTF which suggests the continuation of the order flow (Bearish)
If price was to break these areas, the next level to look to is 1400.
If price breaks 1355 and fails to break 1375 then this could be another rejection of a resistance area.
On the HTF, price is making consecutive LH and LL.
The last sequence of LL/LH rallied 24.65% - this is to be unlikely in the next sequence as we are in a bearish range = high probability to the downside
One thing to keep in mind is that we still haven't 100% retraced from rising wedge which took 32 days to form (13/07-15/08)
US500 Short SetupUS500 is structure is bearish, trend is pushing down and right now we can discern price gravitating back to 1H order block. Let's wait and watch how price will react from this point of interest. Goodluck!
Pound Sets Record Low!The Forex market has come alive after many years of very little activity. One pair in
particular that stands out is the GBPUSD.
Following the long-term consolidation, between 1.1409 and 1.4376, which held price
at bay from October 2016 until this month, price has taken a sudden dive through support.
Price reached historic lows this month, creating a low at 1.0356, and appeared as though
it was on a fast track towards the 1.0000 round number.
The pound has found some near-term strength and is heading up, so we need to look
at levels of resistance that could prevent price from staying up.
The major level of resistance above price is the consolidation low at 1.1409. This low was
formed in March 2020 and held for over two years before the breakout.
When price breaks out from consolidation, we tend to see a retest of the consolidation zone
before a continuation in the direction of the breakout.
If price fails to break above this level, then we could see further weakness in the pound
and a downtrend could unfold here, but patience as usual for now.
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See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
$XAG - What's next?$XAG - What's next?
Pattern: C&H - Pennant
A break above or below either direction, we got intervening happening with BOJ - excellent pattern was in play there as well, silver is brewing with Aussie pulling back due to dxy pulling back as well. Keep an eye across the board! HT: Weekly & Daily will be very key!
All the best,
Trade Journal
The Three Great Trend Trading CyclesHey Trading family! In this education post I'd like to share with you my observation of the 3 cycles that create the uptrend and downtrend.
First, trend refers to the natural movement of price action. You may know this has highs and lows. I say we dig deeper.
Highs and lows are referred to as the highest price a buyer could buy a currency while a low is the lowest price a buyer could buy a currency. This is on the consumer side.
On the trading side, a high is the highest price you'd sell a currency pair and a low is the lowest price you'd buy the currency pair.
I say we dig deeper here. There are 3 cycles that create the legs of highs and lows of a downtrend.
Cycle 1 - Trend Continuation
In an uptrend you're more than likely to become the buyer. The reason being is because you will likely see when price fluctuates up you will make more money and the move up more visible than the move down.
The flow if price naturally moves up continuing the push up to new highs thus in an uptrend we get higher highs.
In a down trend you'd more likely become the seller The move down is more visible.
The flow if price naturally moves down continuing the push down to new lows thus in a downtrend we get new lower lows.
Cycle 2- Retracement
A retracement is also called the pullback or correction. This is a sign the momentum or strength in the trend continuation movement will relieve itself and pullback.
In an uptrend after a new higher high is formed, price will pullback to form a higher low before continuing back up.You can then become the buyer again.
In a downtrend after a new lower low is formed, price will pullback to form a lower high before continuing back down. You can then become the seller again.
Cycle 3- Reversal
A reversal is the trend switcher. This is not to be confused with the retracement.
Reversals switch the full flow of price. An uptrend becomes the downtrend and a downtrend becomes an uptrend.
How to know when price has reversed?
Easy! It's not a trend line break. It's not a level break!
In an uptrend, when price moves down past the last higher low that was formed, that signals the sellers have come into the market or the base currency has lost value and price will begin decreasing.
In a downtrend, when price moves up past the last lower high that was formed, that signals the buyers have come into the market or the base currency has gained value and price will begin increasing.
Best part to remember is this...
An uptrend or downtrend is only made of the trend continuation and retracement cycle.
You won't see price reverse much on higher timeframes such as the daily, weekly, and monthly. So don't expect to see price reverse every week or month.
Simple right?
Go try this out for yourself. If you have any questions or would like to share helpful value please post it below. 😁
Thanks for reading❤️