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Trend Analysis

12/30 Watchlist + NotesAMEX:SPY - Short week from Xmas leaves us with an inside weekly setup to start the new year. The way 2-1-X and 3-1-X setups (Inside bar setups) work, is they either confirm what happened previously, or negate it. In this specific scenario on the weekly, we have a large red week of selling (2D, followed by a pretty neutral inside week (1). Next week either goes 2D, confirming the selling from the previous week and therefore showing evidence of continuation lower, or we negate that selling by making a higher high (2U) and looking to reclaim the highs from the big red week from when FOMC occurred. We can't predict which way the next week will go, but we can at the very least imagine what has to occur for both bull and bear scenarios to be successful. Simply put, above last weeks high means we are targeting the weekly high from the week prior to last week. Below last weeks low means we are targeting the weekly low from the week prior to last week. Break either side and come back into last weeks range means we are failing to confirm/negate what the signal is indicating, and then we target the other side. EX: Monday pokes above last weeks high but closes red. We then would look to engulf the week and create a 1-3 combo on the weekly. This week should be similar to last week, meaning it may be tougher to trade since we have a few negative considerations and less ideal conditions to trade. Considerations for the upcoming week: For starters, we have another short week with new years day on Wednesday being a full day closure for the markets. Short week means less time for weekly candles to form, and therefore, likely chance of less volume to occur compared to normal weeks. Secondly, its the new year! This means we see all new candles on every timeframe up to the yearly chart. So, new Year, Quarter, Month, Week, Day, Hour, etc. Because of this, we will see issues with decoupling. This means the Year, Quarter, and Month will all be the same exact candle until we get to the second month and quarter of the year. Because the week starts in 2024 and ends in 2025, the week will be decoupled, but the M, Q and Y will not. Again, not the biggest issues ever, but just considerations to have in mind. Weekly Watchlist: (Side Note: I have added all of my charts for individual tickers mentioned for further clarity on what I am seeing with these setups) Bullish: NASDAQ:MRVL - 3-1-2U W to confirm bright green M, Y NASDAQ:AVGO - 2-1-2U W to confirm FTFC Up. Relative strength. 4HR 2-1-2U and 1HR 3-2U for Intraday entries Monday Bearish: NASDAQ:SMCI - Shooter 2U W to confirm failed 2U month. Super nice Daily BF NYSE:AI - 2-1-2D W to trigger Shooter failed 2U M. Gorgeous monthly Broadening Formation. NASDAQ:MSTR - 3-1-2D W. BTC with a weak setup on the major TFs. Looking to capitalize through MSTR and other names in that space NYSE:BRK.B - Shooter 3 D. Weekly 2-2U too weak to hit magnitude last week. Month is 3-1 but big red currently. May be early on this but with similar setups in the Financial industry, this is one I want to watch. NASDAQ:AMD - Hammer revstrat D to trigger Weekly 2-1-2U at Monthly Exhaustion level. Yearly has a nasty bearish revstrat setup forming, but if we are just daytrading this, it looks good for an exhaustion play intraweek. Otherwise will be watching all next year for that Y revstrat to play out Neutral: NYSE:SHOP - 3-1 W. Month Failing 2U. NASDAQ:NVDA : Currently Shooter 2U W. Normally this is just bearish, but the 2W chart can go hammer 1-2-2U, and M is 2D but close to open meaning it is failing that downside signal. I could see this going either way, but its such an interesting setup that I wanted to include it.
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
BTC/USDT - 4H Analysis: Long BiasHello traders! 📈 The current BTC/USDT chart is aligning well with a bullish setup, supporting my long bias. Here's the breakdown: 1️⃣ Market Structure: We've observed a Break of Structure (BOS) after a mitigation of sell-side liquidity. A bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) has formed, which could act as a magnet for price as momentum builds. 2️⃣ Liquidity: Buy-side liquidity zones above $98,500 and $106,000 are key targets for this move. 3️⃣ EMA Compression: EMAs are compressing, signaling a potential momentum shift to the upside. A clean break above $95,000 would confirm bullish continuation. 4️⃣ Trade Setup: Entry Zone: $93,000 - $94,000, near current support levels. Stop Loss: Below $92,300, protecting against invalidation of the long bias. Targets: First TP at $98,500, where intermediate liquidity resides. Second TP at $106,000, aligning with higher timeframe objectives. 🎯 Key Notes: Watch for price reaction around $98,500. If momentum sustains, holding for $106,000 is a possibility. Manage risk wisely and stick to your plan. This trade offers a strong risk-to-reward ratio. Let me know how you're trading this in the comments. Happy trading and stay green! 💚🚀
Long
by origami_capital33
Gold Price Consolidation with Bearish Outlook Below 2620Gold Technical Analysis The price today is expected to consolidate between 2,620 and 2,605 until a breakout occurs. Initially, the price is likely to drop below 2,620 toward the support level at 2,605. Breaking below this level could extend the bearish movement toward 2,585. However, a 4-hour candle must close above 2,620 to target 2,636. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2620 Resistance Levels: 2636, 2645, 2653 Support Levels: 2605, 2591, 2585 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 2620 Bullish above 2636
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
MICROSOFT ahead of an expansion similar to the Internet BubbleMicrosoft (MSFT) has been practically neutral for half the year (last 6 months) as since the July 2024 High, it has been trading sideways, unable to catch a rally for a new All Time High (ATH). This consolidation is technically no different that the July - December 1995 sideways sequence (green circle). As you can see, the two fractals since their September 2014 and September 1987 starting points respectively, have been virtually identical, especially in terms of 1M RSI. The reason for these striking similarities is simple. The market is currently unfolding the A.I. Bubble just like it did with the Internet (Dotcom Bubble) in the 1990s. The two technological revolutions are not the same but the A.I. has the capacity to change the socioeconomic market structure just like the Internet did. Based on that analogy, the current 6-month consolidation technically serves as a Re-accumulation Phase following the first part of the A.I. Bubble just like July - Dec 1995 was after the first past of the Internet Bubble up to the 0.382 Time Fibonacci level. If those similarities are extended until the end, then we should not see such a long consolidation again until the 0.618 Fib, when the final past of the Bubble will begin. This chart comparison doesn't serve at giving us a specific Target for this Cycle but rather encourage investors that despite the seeming lack of direction these past 6 months, Microsoft is a strong buy opportunity long-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by TradingShot
BTC 1D possibilities if we stay on track! If we take a look at bitcoins trajection at the beginning of the Bull run you can see that it is set to pick back up. The red lines indicate possible turnaround points. The bottom red line is at 82K, followed by 84, 86, 88 and then current price. In short we could go as low as 82k or if we traded sideways all the way until the end of January we could stay at current levels..... A close below 82K would push us down towards 67k. The RSI is at 42 approx. Indicating there is still more downtrend coming, considering we are in a bearish market right now.. I believe there is too much uncertainty in the market right now to put your money in. Sit back and wait for the dips.
by dependable412
SPX: optimistic in 2025?The last trading week for the S&P 500 passed in an optimistic sentiment, however, Friday's trading session decreased some of weekly gains. The index started the week at the level of 5.837, moved to the highest weekly level at 6.044, but ended the week at 5.970. The levels above the 6K could not hold. Analysts are noting that the US equity market could not sustain developments on the Treasury bonds market side. The 10Y US benchmark yields surged to the level of 4,6% on Friday. This came after concerns over US tariffs and future productivity. All sectors included in the S&P 500 posted daily losses on Friday, including the tech industry. TSLA shares were down by 4,5%. The major investment banks and companies provided some insights of their expectations for the US equity markets in the year 2025. The expectations are marked with policy uncertainties, especially taking into account the start of a new Presidency in the US and the market noise related to it. Considering uncertainties, some higher volatility might be in store for markets in 2025. Analysts from CITI bank are recommending to investors to turn their attention toward sectors with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations. Also they are pointing toward industries like health care, communication services and energy. Within the field of tech industry, CITI analysts are pointing toward the semiconductors industry sector. The biggest investment firm in the US BlackRock, provided their view on key topics for both US and emerging markets. One of the sentences noted in the document says “we see macro policy becoming a potential source of disruption”, which describes nicely the sentiment of economic analysts regarding the Fed's past policy moves. Industries to which BlackRock analysts are pointing to are those related to further AI buildout and the low-carbon transition. With respect to macro developments, they expect that the Fed will further cut rates in 2025, while the jobs market will remain under pressure as well as US GDP growth. Based on analyst forecasts, the year 2025 will be marked with uncertainties. Certainly some volatility might be expected, but general trends on equity markets from 2024 are most probable to continue also through 2025.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
EURUSD: calm weekDue to the Holiday season on the Western markets, there has not been too much important macro data posted during the previous week, while trading eurusd currency pair was relatively calm. Such low trading and low volatility is usual on the market till the first week of the New year. Durable Goods Orders in the US dropped by -1,1% in November on a monthly basis. This drop was higher from market forecast of -0,4%. The CB Consumer Confidence was also down to the level of 104,7, while the market was expecting to see the figure of 112,4. At the same time, there has not been important macro data posted for the Euro Zone. Markets used the last trading week in a year to continue to test the 1,04, the long term support line for eurusd. Considering the Holiday season, the volatility was relatively low. Trading range was within the spread of 1,0385 up to 1,044. The relatively low trading volumes did not manage to push the currency pair clearly below the 1,04 level, however, the pressure was holding from the previous weeks. The RSI was calm around the 40 level, without a strength to pass the 50 line and head toward the overbought market side. The MA50 continued to diverge from its MA200 counterpart, without any indication of a potential slowdown. The week ahead is also going to be a calm one. It could be expected that the eurusd will finish the year somewhere around the 1,04 level. Looking at the longer term scale, a potential break of the 1,04 level in 2025 would mean a clear road toward the parity. However, what will be the actual course of the currency pair would depend on a series of factors, including interest rate decision by both Fed and ECB, potential for economic growth, inflator pressures and unfortunately, geopolitical risks which are highly impacting markets for the last two years. Global trade and energy prices are also one significant factor which should be closely watched in 2025, hence its potential impact on both inflation and economic growth. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI final for December for Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment Rate in Germany in December, HCOB Composite PMI final for December for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Inflation rate preliminary for December in Germany, USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final for December, ISM manufacturing PMI for December, S&P Global Composite PMI final for December.
by XBTFX
$FX:NAS100 long update FX:NAS100 1. Market Context: • The NAS100 chart shows a recovery phase following a sharp “flash sale” (a sudden drop in price). • The Christmas rally pushed prices upward, indicating increased buying interest during the holiday season. 2. Liquidity and Demand: • Price revisited a demand zone, suggesting that institutions or retail traders had pending buy orders in that area. • The chart notes dark pool liquidity, where institutional buyers/sellers might have been active, hidden from retail traders. 3. Resistance Formation: • After bouncing back from the demand zone, the price faced resistance, possibly near a Fibonacci retracement or order block level. • This might suggest sellers gaining control temporarily. 4. Strategic Insights: • Buyers are defending the demand zone, showing a bullish bias for continuation. • Resistance at higher levels signals caution for long positions until confirmation of a breakout. 1. Key Levels to Monitor • Support Zone: • The demand zone near 21,250–21,300 (highlighted yellow) represents a critical support area. • Buyers have shown interest here, as evident from the price bounce. If the price revisits this zone, watch for bullish reactions or potential breakdowns. • Resistance Levels: • The inner sell-side liquidity (SSL) marked near 21,876 aligns with a significant swing high and could attract sellers. • Above this, a stronger resistance level appears around 22,100–22,200, aligning with the psychological round number and previous liquidity pool. 2. Fibonacci Insights • The 50% retracement level (21,561) acts as a mid-level pivot point. • A bounce off this level earlier suggests it remains a point of interest for bulls. • However, failure to reclaim this level could lead to a deeper retracement to test the demand zone again. 3. Potential Bullish Scenario • If the price breaks above 21,876 (inner SSL), the bullish momentum could target: • 22,000 (key psychological level) • 22,200 (outer SSL and strong resistance) 4. Bearish Scenario • A failure to sustain above the 21,561 pivot may trigger: • A retest of the demand zone (21,250). • A deeper push towards 21,160 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the larger downtrend). 5. Dark Pool Liquidity • Given the mention of dark pool liquidity, these levels may contain institutional activity. • Demand zones below could see renewed buying pressure if liquidity was not fully absorbed earlier. • Resistance zones above might see hidden selling pressure as institutions secure profits. Bullish Scenarios (Buying Opportunities): 1. Rejection and Bounce from Demand Zone (21,250–21,300) • Entry Criteria: • Price forms bullish rejection (e.g., pin bar, engulfing candle) at the demand zone. • Confirmation via lower timeframe bullish structure or volume increase. • Stop-Loss: Below the swing low, around 21,190–21,200 (to avoid being stopped out by wicks). • Take-Profit Targets: 1. 21,561: Closest resistance and Fibonacci 50% retracement. 2. 21,876: Inner sell-side liquidity (SSL). 3. 22,100–22,200: Outer SSL and psychological level. 2. Breakout Above Inner SSL (21,876) • Entry Criteria: • Price breaks and closes above 21,876 with momentum. • Look for a pullback to retest the broken level as support. • Stop-Loss: Below the breakout candle or pullback low. • Take-Profit Targets: 1. 22,100: Immediate target aligned with psychological resistance. 2. 22,200–22,250: Extended target where outer SSL lies. Bearish Scenarios (Selling Opportunities): 1. Rejection from Inner SSL (21,876) • Entry Criteria: • Price forms a bearish reversal pattern (e.g., double top, engulfing candle) at 21,876. • Confirmation via lower timeframe bearish structure. • Stop-Loss: Above the swing high at 21,900–21,950. • Take-Profit Targets: 1. 21,561: Fibonacci pivot level and mid-range support. 2. 21,300–21,250: Demand zone and key support area. 2. Break Below Demand Zone (21,250) • Entry Criteria: • Price breaks and closes below 21,250, signaling bearish continuation. • Retest of the broken demand zone as resistance offers a better entry. • Stop-Loss: Above the retest high or broken level, around 21,300–21,350. • Take-Profit Targets: 1. 21,160: Fibonacci 50% level of the larger structure. 2. 20,900–20,755: Previous liquidity zone and significant support. Neutral (Range-Bound Trading) Scenario If price remains between 21,561 (mid-level) and 21,876 (inner SSL): • Scalping Opportunities: Buy at 21,561 support, sell near 21,876 resistance. • Avoid taking aggressive trades until a breakout confirms directional bias.
FX:NAS100Long
by Saint876
SUI Is The Best Asset Of 2024, But It's Almost DoneHello, Skyrexians! Recently we looked at the assets with the high potential, which are still in the accumulation phase. Today we will take a look at the coin BINANCE:SUIUSDT which has already brought a lot of profit to its holders. While other alts are scamming every day, this coins performs great and now we can see a lot of optimism around this crypto. Is it time to sell SUI or rally will continue and this coins is the next Ethereum? Let's take a look at the weekly time frame. Elliott waves theory tells us that listing pump was just a wave 1. After that we have seen the consolidation in a wide range. Price was able to maintain at pretty high level and continue pumping. We can count this wave as a wave 2 in a shape of flat correction ABC. After that price started the impulsive wave 3. This wave has the maximum target at 2.61 Fibonacci extension at $6. Correction can start in any moment now, so this token is dangerous. After corrective wave 4 which can reach approximately $3, we expect the final wave 5 which has the targets above $8. There we have to wait for the red dot on the Bullish/Bearish Reversal Bar Indicator , after that reversal is expected in the new bear market. As always, alerts from this indicator are automatically replicated on my accounts. You can find the information in our article on TradingView . Best regards, Skyrexio Team ___________________________________________________________ Please, boost this article and subscribe our page if you like analysis!
by Skyrexio
Elliott Wave Analysis on MNQ: Anticipating Wave 3Hello, TradingView community! As I am exploring the Elliott Wave Theory with the Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index Futures (MNQ), I've observed the potential start of a new impulse wave sequence after completing an ABC correction on Friday morning and starting new impulse wave 1 with corrective wave 2 in the afternoon. Based on this, I expect we may be entering the longest wave 3, aiming for a target of 22,800, supported by the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. This target for wave 3 I chose for its typical strength and reach. The 12/18 liquidity level is critical here; a breakthrough could indicate strong buy-side support, confirming the bullish trend. I used Fibonacci levels to manage potential pullbacks and determine profitable exits 1 and 2. Additionally, monitoring market structure shifts helps validate the continuation of the upward trend. I am eager to hear your thoughts or corrections on this analysis, as I am still grinding my skills in applying Elliott Wave principles effectively.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by von_goetz
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