Skill VS Luck - Becoming a Consistently Profitable TraderHi traders, here we are on another workshop. Today I'll be sharing some of the points on differentiating skill or luck trading. Majority of the traders have absolutely no clue on are they doing the right things or not? Here's a few key points:
Skill
1. Winners and Losers
- If you are a skilled trader, you're someone who understand the probable and possible in trading. There's no guarantee on any single trade whether it's a winner or loser. Remember, the short-term outcome in trading is completely random, what's more important is to come out being profitable in the long-term. Never judge your performance based on the short-term outcome, think long-term.
2. Good Risk Management
- Good traders always have effective risk management in place. Not any single trade is able cause damage on their capital, and they truly understand how to detach themselves from negative emotions.
3. Repeatable
- Good traders have a repeatable process, that allows them to tackle the market in the same way every single day.
4. Proper Planning
- Good traders rarely deviate from their initial plan, as they understand that a planned trade is a good trade regardless of the outcome. Any trade taken out of impulsive behaviour, is considered a bad trade regardless of the outcome.
5. Consistency
- Good traders have a set of routine and action plan. To achieve consistent results, you must have a consistent performance.
6. Execution
- Good traders have little to no hesitation when it comes to executing their trades. They execute their plan without second guessing or doubt.
Luck
1. No loser
- Most gurus' or lucky traders would promote themselves having 80% - 90% strike rates, which could never happen in reality. The only way you can achieve such a high win rate is to have a Profit Factor of less than 1. In fact, most of the best traders out there have a strike rate of 40-50%.
2. Excessive Risk Exposure
- Losing traders have no idea how to isolate themselves from a bad state of mind. They're constantly putting up a lot of risk on the table regardless of having no clue on what's going on in the markets. The sense of urgency is rushing them on taking unnecessary risk.
3. Unrepeatable
- Losing traders constantly take trades out of their trading plan, which is not duplicable. If you're taking trades that is unrepeatable, most likely it's a lucky trade and you shouldn't be happy about it even if it turns out to be a winning position.
4. Impulsive Behaviour
- Losing traders deviate from their initial plan due to uncontrolled emotion. They're taking trades they're not supposed to take, then regrets later on.
5. No routine
- Losing traders have no daily routine. They're always blind firing all over any 'seems' profitable position. Most of them possess of potential over-trading habits.
6. Hope & Praying
- Losing traders are constantly looking for the 'best trade' that'd give them an enormous return. Most of them have no trading plan and proper Risk Management in place, causing them to experience an emotional rollercoaster on any particular position when it gets out of hand.
"Chains of habit are too light to be felt until they are too heavy to be broken." - Warren Buffett
Let me know in the comment below what's your worst trading nightmare!
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Trading Psychology
8 Trading Habits of Successful TradersConsistently profitable traders have a lot of things in common. Watching how they act and following their ideas & thoughts we can spot a lot of commonalities among them. In this post, I have collected 8 trading habits that a trader should have to become successful.
1️⃣ - Realistic Expectation & Vision
Many traders, most often beginners, commonly fall for the trap of wishful thinking. When analysing the charts, they usually only view the market from one bias and only perceive price heading in one direction.
And this is typically the one that their own analysis is pointing towards. However, going into each trade with a realistic expectation that the market doesn't care what you think may happen, and being prepared for a trade to go wrong will help keep you level headed.
2️⃣ - Anticipation of Different Outcomes
Anything can happen in financial markets and for this reason, professional traders always justify their decisions in probabilities.
They understand that 100% chances do not exist so looking at all possible probabilities before entering any trades, the trader is always ready for completely different outcomes and accepts each and every move given by the market.
3️⃣ - Emotional Stability
The market is a wild beast who always wants to bite us and most of the time it manages to do that e.g. drawdowns & losing streaks...
Those who trade for at least 1 year know how unpredictable and unstable the market can be. A perfectly looking trading setup can easily turn into a big losing trade.
Of course, that is painful and of course with more & more losses, the anxiety will begin to chase us, the stress will overwhelm us and you may begin to start second guessing yourself.
Only by remaining stable and calm, you will manage to overcome the negative periods. Learn to control your emotions, learn to take losses!
4️⃣ - Continuous Learning
The markets are infinitely deep in their nature. Trading & constant monitoring of the market always unveil new, uncharted elements and things.
Throughout all my years of day trading, I can't help wondering how many new things I learn each and every day. With continuous learning you evolve, you become better and it improves your trading performance & results.
5️⃣ - Flexibility & Adaptivity
The markets are always changing. If you were trading before COVID crisis, I guess you feel how the reality among us shifted. With fundamental changes in our daily lives, the markets changed as well.
It is hard to say what exactly has altered though, however, we all can feel it. In order to survive in a constantly changing environment we must always be adapting and never stagnant.
6️⃣ - Trade Journaling
Pro traders always assess their past performance & results. They track each and every trading position that they opened.
Both losing trades and winning trades require analysis and observations. Only by studying the past results the trader can improve his trading performance and evolve. Only by identifying mistakes & peculiar commonalities, the trader learns to lose less than he makes.
7️⃣ - Risk Management
90% of traders lose 90% of their funds within 90 days and under 90 trades . This is a well known statistic in the trading industry and aside from psychological factors, it mainly boils down to incorrect risk management.
If you're looking to survive in this game and have a long, prosperous career in trading. You must have your risk management locked down.
One beneficial risk management habit to develop is to not enter any trades unless they have a risk:reward ratio of at least 1:3+ .
8️⃣ - Trading Plan
Sticking to your trading plan is one way of promoting long-term success throughout your trading journey. Undoubtedly, you will go through many psychological ups & downs, mental battles and periods of low confidence.
Abiding by your own trading plan will help assist in ensuring that you don't step out of line from your own trading rules and allow you to stop yourself from developing bad habits overtime.
9️⃣ - Constant Practice
Professional traders never stop, they always watch the charts, they always monitor the prices, and follow the market.
Trading requires constant TRADING. Just spending one single week on a vacation without charts, you can not imagine how hard it is to return back. The trading skills must be constantly maintained.
3 Types of Traders: Which Are You?3 Types of Traders: Which Are you?
There are many different approaches of trading the financial markets that has provoked countless methods and strategies to be created over the decades.
One popular way to simplify & view this is to break it down into 3 types of traders which is categorised by two main factors which include the trading frequency & timeframes used by each one of the trading types.
1️⃣ Scalper
The large majority of beginner traders end up starting out with this type of trading because of numerous reasons. But mainly, this is due to the fast pace that the market moves, presenting many trading opportunities and giving off the perception of an opportunity to get rich quick.
Ironically, this trading style is then considered as one of the most easiest and successful ways of trading by beginner traders, while being stated by professional traders to be one of the most difficult.
Scalpers often have dozens of trading positions open at a time during multiple trading sessions and need to be in front of the charts at all times. Therefore, paying huge commissions to their broker due to spreads also making this type of trading have a high cost to it. Not to mention the chaos in lower timeframe analysis that eventually results in the majority to stop trading.
This is not to say that you cannot be successful with scalping. However, the main obstacle alongside many other with scalping, is the level of constant focus & rapid-decision making required which can have massive negative effects on your overall trading psychology if not kept in check.
2️⃣ Intraday
Intraday or day trading is the most popular type of trading amongst retail traders and is what I prefer the most myself.
Staying relatively active, the market gives some time for the trader to reflect & think upon their analysis on the pairs they are analysing. Opening and managing on average ~1-2 positions per trading session, the intraday approach offers a degree of freedom.
But does come at a cost due to the declining amount of volume and volatility, intraday traders may experience low risk:reward setups because of the average daily range of many pairs on the market.
3️⃣ Swing
Swing trading is the best choice for individuals who want to pursue trading while having a full-time occupation outside of trading. This is possible due to this type of trading primarily focusing on the higher timeframes such as daily/weekly for a large proportion of their analysis.
Thus, swing trading is not demanding when being combined with an individuals typical daily routine and trading psychology since they aim to catch mid/long-term market movements.
With an average trade holding length of 2 weeks and only 1-2 positions being placed per week. Swing trading is regarded to be one of the least emotional approaches and involves low cost of trading with great risk:reward setups.
Though, the main problem with swing trading is the degree of patience required when holding out for long period of times. Often resulting in the trader closing their positions too early and not having the ability to allow the positions to reach their final targets.
Which type of trading do you prefer?
Don't wait too long for "CONFIRMATION"!Hi Guys
A popular concept in the world of trading, especially among technical traders and chartists is to wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
This means you have a Signal, for example, a price action pattern and now you wait for the markets to confirm that pattern before you enter. The idea, of course, is to filter out bad trades this way and to gain confidence before entering the trade.
But that confidence might come at a very high price in the long run. The problem with waiting for the market to confirm your trading idea is that this "Confirmation" often already is your profit! In other words, the Signal has worked and you would have been paid to take the risk and trade it.
And that's what you get paid for as a trader, you try to anticipate a price move you believe is going to happen before everyone else does. Please notice that this is true despite your trading style. You might hear statements like „I just follow the markets, I don't try to anticipate what's going to happen." (usually, these come from traders following some kind of trend following approach). But what they really mean is that instead of trying to get into a trade early anticipating the markets to reverse direction, they get in late anticipating that the markets will move even further in the direction it has already been moving. Of course nothing wrong with that, but in either case, traders anticipate a future price move they want to profit from and it's important to be aware of that fact.
Another example is trading a specific support/resistance level. Sure the risk to buy into a support level while the market is in free fall is risky. But that's precisely why these trades often offer you great profit potential. In case the trade works out, you'll get paid for the risk you took. But again…once you see that huge reversal price bar on your chart that bounced nicely off that support level - you probably already missed the opportunity.
You now know that you've been right. That really was a support level and market participants bought again at that price. Because of that price moved up and that's why you now see that huge reversal bar. But that move is over now…and those who took the risk and bought at the level are now taking their profits - hopefully, you're not the one buying from them now.
I could come up with many more examples like waiting for an indicator to confirm a trade etc, but the point to consider is that whenever you wait for confirmation you give up a significant amount of potential profits. And more often than not, these potential profits cost more than a couple of losing trades you might filter out waiting for confirmation. Your job here is to find a good compromise between getting in too early due to a Signal coming from market noise and getting in too late due to a Signal that misses most of the opportunity.
The Ambush trading method, for example, is an extreme case, it gets into trades again the ongoing short-term trend all the time. But that's precisely the idea behind it, trying to anticipate where that short-term trend is likely to end. Sounds risky? Well, looking at the long-term results it's actually a lot riskier to be on the other side of these trades ;)
DO YOU BELIEVE CONFIRMATION?
Three Steps to Become A PROFESSIONAL TRADER 👨💻👩💻
Hey traders,
The road to consistently profitable trading is hard and dangerous. This path can be split into three main milestones. Each of those requires discipline, time & patience.
📚The first step is your trading education.
Starting with a basic understanding of what are the financial markets & how they work and finishing with the sophisticated techniques of risk management, so many things must be learned.
In the beginning you will be most likely paralyzed by the complexity of the whole system. Even the choice of a trading education provider is not that simple taking into consideration the sheer amount number sources that could be found on the internet.
It is highly advisable for you to accompany your trading education with demo account trading so that you could apply what you’ve learned in practice.
💸It is imperative to invest in your education, while simultaneously saving up for your first(but not last) real trading account.
Spending your money on education & then saving in order to build your first trading account, a sufficient amount of money is required.
Be prepared for failures. Be prepared to blow your first and second trading account & fund it again. Be prepared that the majority of premium educational sources won't meet your expectations.
I don't know any trader who succeeded in trading without investing a huge amount of money in that.
👨💻With the money being invested & with the knowledge gained, you must practice on a real account.
You must choose the trading strategy that is appealing to you and start trading with that.
Quite soon you will realize that theoretical knowledge has nothing in common with real market conditions.
You will change trading strategies one after another until you finally find the one that truly makes sense to you.
Then you will spend a couple of years playing with that, learning the rules & constantly polishing your trading plan.
🏁At some moment you will stop losing. At some moment your trading account will start growing steadily and you will become a consistently profitable trader.
As the market conditions change constantly. You must be vigilant & learn to survive in a changing environment. Education, active investing & practice are required from you to keep being afloat.
I hope that this article will help you to build realistic expectations concerning trading.
If you are ready to learn a lot, invest money & practice many years not making a dime, then one day you will definitely make it.
Do you agree with my thoughts?
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5 Key Advices To Share With Trader Who Is Struggling In TradingHello everyone:
Lately many of you have messaged me about getting FOMO and entering trades without confirmations.
In addition you can't seem to “not” enter trades when the market hasn't shaped up to your strategy and entry criteria.
I am hoping in today’s educational video it can help some of you guys to get back on track.
I want to share 5 main pieces of advice that can help out traders who are currently struggling.
These are experiences and lessons that I accumulate throughout the 8 years of trading and in hope to help some of you who are struggling in your current journey of trading.
1. Do “NOT” think about get rich quick in trading
-Trading is a marathon, not a sprint
-90-95% traders fail due to a combination of: Greed, FOMO, mindset/emotion, risk management, trading psychology.
-Trading is not a get rich quick scheme, but it can produce consistent, sustainable passive income if you can put in the time and effort
-Most try to jump to the result right away, without going through the journey, that is not how life works.
2. No trading strategies, style, method can give you 100% strike rate
-Trading is probability, not right or wrong.
-Understand you can have the best strategy in the world, and still not be profitable.
- Technical, Fundamental, Algo, EA...etc can all not work. This is why risk management is important to not over risk, over trade, over leverage your trading account
3. Backtest and journal
-Backtest your strategy so your brain acknowledges and recognizes it over and over again.
-Slowly build up confidence in your strategy and method. IT will come to you like second nature
-Journal all your wins and losses so you can review them. Work on them, accept your mistakes to grow and improve.
4. Control your EGO
-Human beings have ego to prove others are wrong and they are right
-We refuse to admit we made the error/mistakes, and blame others/external as the cause.
-Acknowledge that in trading, stop blaming the market, the broker, the mentor, the strategy...etc.
-Don't take things personally and be offended by it.
5. Never Give Up
-I blew several accounts in the beginning of trading career, gave up and quit trading multiple times
-I always ended up coming back to trading. After taking time off. Whether that is weeks or months in the beginning journey.
-No one is born into a trader, just like no one is born into a doctor, lawyer.
-If trading was that easy, then everyone would be rich.
-Success is measure by how many times you get back up when you failed
I hope these pointers can help you guys to get more focus and get back on track in trading.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know, thank you
Jojo
Below I will share others educational videos that have direct relations to the topics above:
Trading Psychology: How to deal & manage losses/consecutive losses in trading ?
Trading Psychology: Revenge Trading
Trading Psychology: Fear Of Missing Out
Trading Psychology: Over Leveraged Trading
Trading Psychology: Is there Stop Loss Hunting in Trading ? How to deal with it ?
Prevent Blowing an account by backtesting:
Risk Management 101
BTC/USD Binance.US - This is why I do not use stop losses.. I must start by saying that I believe Bitcoin and cryptocurrency investing offers the greatest opportunity for the common man to build wealth to have ever existed in the history of the world. Yet, it is still an endeavor that must be entered into cautiously and with research if one is to be successful.
The Daily Chart for BTC/USD on (the pathetic excuse of an exchange) Binance.US, serves as a teachable moment that should not be ignored. This chart demonstrates that if you cannot go to sleep peacefully without having a stop loss in place then you may need to reconsider being in this game.
The traditional methods of trading securities that were used in the regulated stock markets of the world and which subsequently made a lot of the famous traders of old very rich, predated high frequency trading and algorithmic trading bots on these mostly unregulated cryptocurrency exchanges. Yet, these outdated methods are currently being peddled and taught by the get-rich-trading-crypto-gurus today as the "secrets to crypto trading profits", despite this being 20th century methods that will cause you to lose your shirt if adhered to when trading crypto. Any endeavor to read and learn about crypto trading will, almost without fail, lead to a regurgitated list of the same old trading clichés. One such example: the so-called number one rule of trading. Always use a stop loss. The number one rule of successful trading is undoubtedly to limit your losses. This may be true, but if you are doing that with a stop loss on an exchange then you are asking to be robbed. Yes, you have to know when to cut your losses and move on, but unfortunately, because of the nature of swimming these dangerous financial waters, the sharks in the crypto space will eat your lunch, steal your crypto at bargain prices and laugh as you weep over what could've been. The order books are open. Anybody with a desire to do so can launch a trading "bot" using an API on most any crypto exchange. If that person or entity happens to have enough capital to clear the buy or sell side of the order books of an exchange, then they are free to do so. Once this is done, your crypto is gone at a bargain price with the classic stop loss shake out. Which is why if I cannot hold it without a stop loss, then I don't need it. If a drop in price doesn't present an opportunity for me to buy more, then I don't need it. If I'm not confident that it will be around in 2-5 years from now, then I don't need it. To limit losses, set a price alert on Tradingview, CoinGecko, or your exchange watchlist. If you are afraid it will drop too much before you can act on it, or if it suffers from a lack of volume and thus has a lack of liquidity, then perhaps it's best to HODL or leave it be.
If you don't know what any of this means, then that could be a sign that you may need to do a little more due diligence.
Mentality - Identify Right or Wrong DecisionHi Traders. Here's a very impromptu topic regarding how do you know if you're doing the right thing or not. Often, most of us fail to differentiate whether are we making the right decisions or not, because of the outcome - profits. One main thing you must understand is that, trading the financial markets are all about the probable & possible. Short-term outcomes are completely random, what separates you from 90% of losing traders, is your trading edge, consistency and emotional detachment. If you are 'lucky' enough to make money not following your plan, are you able to duplicate this into the long-term projection? Ultimately, markets will reward discipline traders, so stick to your plan and keep grinding!
Comment down below what's the worst trading decision you've ever made.
Do not forget to like if you enjoy the sharing. Trade safe and take care.
DEVELOPING YOUR TRADING PLAN | Your Whys and Hows 📝
Hey traders,
To trade the market profitably you need to have a plan.
A set of rules & conditions to rely on each and every time when you are searching for a trading opportunity.
A trading plan of a professional trader is very sophisticated. It consists of various different elements. The precision there is pushed to the limits.
In this article, we will discuss a trading plan of a newbie trader. A trader who just completed a basic educational course and looks for a trading strategy to trade with. The proposed trading plan will be based on very very essential elements that must be included in any trading plan.
💱Know what you trade.
Know exactly what market are you focused on and which trading instruments are on your radar.
For example, being a stock trader, you can not follow all the world stocks, you should narrow down your list and specify that.
⌛Know what time frame you analyze.
There are multiple styles of trading. Trading style can be defined by a trading time frame.
Trading setups taken on a daily time frame are dramatically different from setups spotted on 1-hour time frame.
📈Know exactly the desired market conditions.
There are two main states of a market:
The market can be in a trend and the market can consolidate.
Depending on the state of the market the trader can look for trend-following opportunities; trade the ranging market or look for reversal counter-trading setups.
💸 Know your desired risks.
The max amount of active trading positions,
risk percentage per a single transaction,
max allowable drawdown.
All these numbers must be considered & calculated precisely.
💡Know your entry reasons.
There are thousands of different reasons to open a trading position. However, they can be easily sorted by various categories.
Three universally accepted categories of entry conditions are:
patterns, indicators, fundamental news.
The trader must strictly know in advance the conditions that he is looking for to open a trading position.
🛑Specify your stop placement rules.
Losses are inevitable and must be strictly controlled.
As with the entry reasons, there are a lot of different stop placement techniques.
You must know exactly what do you rely on to place your stop wisely.
3 most common stop placement techniques are:
pip-based, structure-based and indicator-based.
🟢Know your targets.
Opening a trading position and catching a rally the trader must have strict rules for profit-protection/profit-taking.
The two most common ways of profit protection are take profit levels based on fixed levels/pip numbers & trailing stop.
All these elements must be strictly included in your trading plan.
If at least one of them is missing, don't trade.
With time, as you mature, you will have more and more elements & conditions in your trading plan. That will make your trading more precise & consistent.
Do you have a trading plan?
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10 Rules for Every TraderI have on the wall next to my trading desk a list of 10 rules which I remind myself of every day. These are rules that I've come up with as a result of mistakes that I've made in the past. New traders often have misconceptions about what good trading looks like, or how a successful trader behaves. The barriers to getting into trading today are low, but the learning curve is still just as steep. You can save yourself considerable time and money by learning from others. I'm sharing this list mainly for new traders, but anyone can benefit. So, without further ado:
10 Rules For Every Trader
1. Price doesn't HAVE to do ANYTHING.
A common misconception among very new traders is that skilled traders are able to 'predict' the market. This is not true. This is not even possible. As a trader, your job is to deal in probabilities and risk-management.
2. Ranges are more common than breakouts.
In any given market, for every successful breakout and acceptance of new price, you will find 3-5 failed breakouts. New traders often prefer breakout trades because they happen fast, they're exciting, and there's a certain thrill to profiting off of a sudden move that you know caught a lot of other traders with their pants down. Remember that price action stays rangebound by default, until a demand imbalance pushes the auction process to a new range. Range bound trading is a boring grind, but it's also the easiest money you'll make.
3. You will be wrong at least 50% of the time. Keep your risk tight!
So, it's not necessarily true that you'll be wrong more than you are right, however as a new trader it's highly probable. This is however the mindset that I adopt when I am evaluating the risk of a potential trade. With any trade I take, I assume that I've got a greater chance of being wrong than being right. When you think about your trading this way, I guarantee that you'll tighten up your risk management game.
4. Check your ego at the door.
You're here to make money. That's all. The market is not here to offer you self-validation. The market doesn't care about your need to prove anything. Stay humble, and always keep the possibility of being wrong in the forefront of your mind.
5. Take what is offered.
This goes hand in hand with rule one and rule four. A common saying is 'follow the signals, not the cents'. I've let winners turn into losers in the past because I FELT (rule 4) like price action HAD (rule 1) to go farther before rolling over. Take what the market offers, and see the next rule.
6. There will ALWAYS be another opportunity.
FOMO (fear of missing out) is very real. It will also lead you to get cut to pieces in a leveraged market. If you missed your ideal entry, don't chase. You didn't just miss the last and only good trade in the world. Think of your risk capital like ammunition. Save it for tomorrow.
7. Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers.
What more can I say? If you're adding to a losing position with the intent to move your average entry price, you're already in trouble. Every time you think about adding to a position, I want you to hear this rule in your head. "Winners add to winners. Losers add to losers." Close that losing trade. Save your capital for the next opportunity.
8. Be greedy with your entries: fight for price.
If your trading thesis requires price to reach a certain level to validate your entry criteria, then wait for that level. Remember, don't FOMO into a trade. See rule six.
9. Be patient with your entries: Being early is the same as being wrong.
Similar to rule 8, no FOMO! Have you ever taken a trade and then been stopped out before the market makes the move you were expecting? You're trying to predict the market instead of reacting to what it is showing you. Slow down, and remember that acceptance of price is validated by both time and volume.
10. Hope is NOT a strategy!
This is the difference between trading and gambling. Good trading looks very boring. As a general rule of thumb, if it's exciting, you're probably gambling and not trading. If you don't have a solid 'if this, then that' thesis about the market you're looking to trade, then you don't have a trade to make.
These rules are meant to be guidelines for self-improvement as a trader. Write them down. Add your own personal rules. Print them out and put them where you will see them every day. Look at them before you trade and while you manage your positions. At the end of the day, evaluate how well you followed them and record your thoughts in a trading journal. I promise you that if you incorporate these rules into your trading plan, and make them a part of your thinking, you will find success as a trader.
Trade well everyone.
Want To Improve Your Trading Game? Play Poker!In virtually any field of athletics it is advised that you should cross-train in order to both avoid injury and increase performance . For example, Football players are encouraged to take up pilates, yoga, and swimming. Runners can reduce injury and increase performance by incorporating Rollerblading, Barre, and Zumba into their routines.
So what should traders do in order to "cross-train" that will make them better traders, to help them "avoid injury" (as in lose money ) and "increase performance" (as in make money )?
My answer: Play Poker!
Yes, Poker and Trading are both "sedentary" activities where you are sitting at a desk or table. It is the brain that needs to be toned, limbered up, and made flexible, not the body. (Though you need to make sure your body is healthy too!) So it is safe to say that the peak performance trader needs a mental cross-training routine, not necessarily a physical one.
So why is Poker the ideal cross-training exercise for traders?
1: Poker Teaches Risk Management
Unless you're a novice or not seriously playing in a virtual poker App, there's little chance you will go "All In" at the poker table. I can count on one hand the number of times I went "all in" and I won every time. Such opportunities rarely happen. When I did move my pile of chips to the center of the table it was because I knew what was in my hand. I "managed my risk". Likewise, the trader or investor should almost never go "all-in", putting their entire account into asset X, Y, or Z because "the market will market" on you and you will lose it all. In trading terms, you can very easily "blow up your account."
As Kenny Rogers says, "You've got to know when to hold'em... and know when to fold'em."
Good risk management requires that even if you lose say, 5 times in a row, you will live to trade another day. I frequently talk about never risking more than 1% of your account on any single trade . A 5% loss is easy to recover from with two 3-R wins, or one 7-R win. Likewise in poker, with a $100 buy-in, you usually have $1 antes, allowing you to play up to 100 hands (even if you were the worst poker player in the world) risking only 1% per hand.
In poker, only if the "odds are in your favor", that is, you have two-pair, or you have three or four-of-a-kind, or a straight, would you consider raising the stakes to 2, 5, or even 10% of your bankroll. If you can make 20R from a 4R "risk" with the odds in your favor, you are now thinking like a professional trader where Risk Management is "Job One".
2: Poker Teaches Emotional Management
I like to teach that our goal as a trader is to be totally mechanical - totally rules-based. Our goal is to "Trade like a Vulcan" or "Trade like Spock: Trade long and prosper!" What's the poker analogy? Having a " Poker Face ". Or as the old antiperspirant commercial said, "Never let'em see you sweat."
We may have an awesome hand, but we can't display a "woo-hoo" face because no one will bet against us. We may have a terrible hand, but we can't put up a "oh, good grief!" face and let others know that they have even the slightest chance of beating us. We have to play every hand waiting for the last card drawn (the river) because that last card can make or break what we are holding in our hand. And very often it is that last card dealt, "the river", that can make or break a poker hand.
3: Poker Teaches You to Play the Probabilities
Growing up in Brooklyn, New York, I remember the famous slogan from the New York Lottery: "You gotta be in it to win it!" They threatened (coerced?) every New Yorker with "fear of loss" if they didn't play the lotto... "Well, yeah, we all know the odds of you winning are are actually close to zero, but of you don't play then they really are zero so you better play or you will feel more like the loser than you already are!"
Thankfully, the odds in winning at Poker are much higher than winning a set of numbers printed on ping-pong balls, which teaches you that when you have an "edge"... when you have a "system" that has the odds in your favor (a winning trading system) you can't try to outsmart the system – you need to play every hand that meets the criteria of your system.
As hockey great Wayne Gretzky said, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." So as Poker players and as traders, we have to play every hand, or every trade that appears that meets our trading plan's criteria, otherwise if we try to "outsmart the market" we will lose every time. And more often than not, even with a terrible hand, say a 2 and 4 of spades, you might find that if you don't fold, every once in a while three spades will appear on the table giving you one of the high-probability hands: the flush . So play every hand . And in trading, take every trade opportunity that appears that qualifies under your rules-based trading system.
4: Poker Teaches You To Stay Humble
My poker buddies and I play every month or so. Early in my tenure when I learned to play poker I realized "Hey, I'm pretty good at this.... I'm gauging the probabilities, I'm keeping my risk-per-hand low, I'm taking small profit after small profit and leaving with twice the money I bought in for or more. Drinks are on me!"
Then I got cocky... Walking into game four I thought to myself "I'm the Vulcan, emotionless, rules-based, odds-calculating poker player, right?"
And that night my proverbial hat was handed to me.
It was one of the worst games I'd played to that point. I over-bid, I bluffed (something I had never done before and my opponents knew it!), and I raised bets on hands I know I should have folded. I re-bought in after losing my original buy-in and lost all of that! And I went home with a valuable lesson: Don't think you can out-smart the probabilities.
The reason we win at poker is the same reason we win at trading. We must always play the odds, we must never play the low probability hands, we must always keep our emotions get the best of us, and when it's time to fold, it's time to fold!"
Last week our poker group met again. I bought in for $50 and left with $135. In trading parlance, that was a 170% return. I was grateful. I learned my lesson. I've got to stay humble and let the hand come to me, let the trade come to me, and never think I can out-smart the table or the market.
5: Poker Teaches You To Set a Financial Target
One of the reasons that casinos give their players free drinks, free upgrades to already expensive suites, and free food is they know that "the more you play, the more you'll pay." You can be up $5,000 for the night, then go get yourself some free lobster tails paired with filet mignon, a bottle of wine, and a decadent dessert. Then you return to the tables all fat, happy, and lubricated and proceed to hand all your winnings back to the House.
I know more than one poker player who has a rule: "When I double my money, I'm done . I may walk in with $500, and when I'm $500 to the positive, I quit and go on to enjoy the rest of my night, otherwise I'll just give it all back."
Similarly, I know many a trader (yours truly included) who may have been up a sizable amount wonderfully early in the trading session, then proceed to give all those winnings back to the market an hour or so later. Setting a daily "win" will prevent you from getting mentally "fat and sassy" where you will become overconfident and then hand your winnings back to the market.
As a Poker player, you may want to make a certain amount of money per game. As a trader, you might want a daily amount of "R" or dollar amount to the positive. In either case, when you hit your goal, even if it's in the first 20 minutes of the trading session you need to close all open trades and enjoy the fact that you did what 90% likely did not do that day: end the day in the green! On other words, "Quit while you're ahead!"
6: Poker Player Are Part of a Vibrant Community Full of Fun People!
Like traders, the number of people who are committed to improving their poker game are few. We need to belong to a strong community of passionate poker players to perfect our craft just as we need to belong to a strong community of passionate (and profitable) traders in order to continually perfect our skill at taking money from the markets each and every day. There are online poker communities you can join (think: Simulated Trading) and there are global in-person Poker communities that can link you up with other players once you're ready to "go live". These communities are generally free to join and will help you build up the skill to become a proficient and profitable Poker player which, more importantly, will help you become an even more proficient and profitable trader.
Is there anything else about Poker that you think needs to be added to the list? Leave a comment below.
As always, Trade well! (And maybe I'll see you at the table!)
Examining Rejections - Probability of SuccessHi Traders. Today, we are going to discuss about Type 1, Type 2 & Type 3 Rejections that I personally examine prior to taking any Reversal setups. Are you someone who has multiples reversals strategies, but often when the trade lines up, you find it difficult to determine whether you should pull the trigger or not? If that's the case, there are two possible issues you are facing
A. You did not back-test the strategy
- Backtesting gives you to necessary confidence to take any setup without hesitation
B. You do not know exactly what you are looking for
- Due to the lack of research, backtesting and experience, you find it confusing to identify whether an entry trigger is valid or not
Below, I will be breaking down the logic behind these 3 different types of rejections, and which one had proven to give me a better Probability of Success over the long-term
Type 1 : Price just tap a Resistance zone , then begin showing signs of exhaustions
• This type of rejection often attracts traders who are FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) or have the sense of urgency to quickly get involved
• My data shows that Type 1 rejection gives the least success rate, often price tends to move sideways after the rejection, then slowly grind back up digesting the entire candle
• It is the weakest rejection due to the liquidity purposes (not always). It is not easy for a market to completely reverse into the opposite direction without attracting traders onto the wrong side
Type 2 : Price pierces through a Resistance zone , then showing strong sign of rejection closing back below
• e.g. Pin-bar, Doji , Spinning Top , etc
• It usually wick through the previous high, and wipe off traders who place their SL just slightly above the structure
• This type of rejections is often what I personally enjoy trading the most too, as it shows extreme price disagreement.
• Price attempts to break above the Resistance zone , but faced immediate opposing pressure defending the price zone, showing solid rejection
Type 3 : Price closes above the Resistance, then pop back below
• Commonly referred as a "Fakeout"
• The logic behind this is great as well. Price closes above a Resistance zone attracting more fresh buyers in, Buyers who bought at low would scale-in, Breakout traders would try to chase the aggressive buys
• All of a sudden, buying pressure turns off, Big Boys step in immediately reverse the market into the opposite direction
• Think about the amount of selling volume requires to shut down that huge amount of Bullish momentum
• A very reliable reversal entry trigger too
In this example, I am using a Bearish reversal scenario. It works the same way in a Bullish reversal environment too.
Comment down below which one is your favourite rejection trigger?
Do not forget to like if you enjoy the sharing. Trade safe and take care.
How to analyze the market from scratch (Impulse & Correction)Hello everyone:
Many have asked me about demonstrating how to analyze the chart from complete scratch.
When looking at my chart and educational video, it all seems very simple, but many are telling me they are struggling to identify the market.
Today I will go over how I analyze the chart, from the Higher time frame down to lower time frame by using multi-time frame analysis, top down approach.
Specifically by identifying price action, impulse and correction phases of the market.
1. Start from the Higher Time Frame (HTF): HTF can be any time frame higher than the daily chart, such as monthly, weekly, daily.
Personally I like to use daily as a go to time frame as it is widely used by traders.
2. Identify the impulse phase of the market. Understand the impulse phase is a period of fast momentum,
price is either pushing up or down very aggressively, and not much consolidation visible on the HTF.
3. Identify a period of consolidations. Using trendlines, connect the swing highs and lows of the price.
This is to identify the correction/consolidation phase of the market.
Which is the most important aspect in price action analysis.
You will need to be very knowledgeable on the type of continuation, reversal correction patterns/structures the market usually will form.
(I will share many price action patterns/structures that I identify and use in the market below)
4. Once you identify the HTF phase of the market, you will then go down to the Lower time frames (LTF).
LTF can be anything under 2/1 HR, 30/15 Min charts. It's not a specific time frame, rather “Multi time frame analysis”.
You will also identify the impulse phases & Correction phases on the LTF and use trendlines to connect the swing highs and lows of the correction/consolidation phase, just like what we did on the HTF.
5. Now that you have both the HTF and LTF charts drawn out, the key here is to have both the HTF and LTF tell you the same direction/bias.
They should align up and have the same bullish/bearish bias. This will strengthen your probability of success.
I always make sure when I am about to enter any trades, I want the multi-time frames all telling me the same story. Same bias, same direction.
6. Now all that comes down to is forecasting the possible entries, which I have made many videos on this topic and I will share some below.
Understand you would always want to make sure you are either entering during the impulse phase on the LTF,
or the price is about to start the impulse phase to gain the upper hands in the market.
You do not want to enter when the price is in a consolidation which is why many traders end up losing money, stuck in the correction and price isn't moving too much, rather just sideways.
7. Continue to work on analyzing the chart from scratch, get comfortable at identifying the impulse phase in the market,
and do backtesting continuously so you identify the corrections in the market.
This will make you see the chart and the market completely different than before, and you will have a much better probability of entering trades that work out in your favour.
Any questions, comments or feedback welcome to let me know.
Jojo
Below I will share many educational videos that will help you to understand more on price action analysis, impulse/correction phase, entry, forecasting, backtesting and more.
Continuation and Reversal Correction
Identify a correction for the next impulse move in price action analysis
Multi-time frame analysis
Continuation Bull/Bear Flag
Parallel Channel (Horizontal, Ascending, Descending)
Reversal Ascending/Descending Channel
Reversal Rising/Falling Wedge
Reversal Double Top/Bottom
Reversal Head & Shoulder Pattern
Reversal “M” and “W” style pattern
Reversal Impulse Price Action
Continuation/Reversal Expanding Structure/Pattern
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market
Risk Management: When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?
How forecasting can benefit your trading journey
Backtesting & Chartwork on Forex Market
Backtesting & Chartwork on Indices Market
Backtesting & Chartwork on Crypto Market
How & Why I backtest:
When Not To Trade A Currency PairDo you know what it looks like when you don't have a trade? Let's face it, there are a lot of videos that tells you when to place a trade or how to trade, but not when not to trade and that is what I'm showing you in detail today.
I hope you enjoy my mini Ted Talk, I mean mini lesson.
Are you revenge trading 😖🤔Revenge trading!
It all catches us all out at some point in our trading journey's.
The markets don't care about your loss and neither should you!
Losses are a part of trading and have to be accepted.
No one can be right 100% of the time regardless of method used.
Revenge trading will add to those losses and compound that account draw down even more.
Irrational emotions have no place in trading and they are what lead to revenge trading.
The way to eradicate this issue is by going about your trading a logical manner.
First off is build or use a strategy with a known proven edge.
Second is follow that strategy to the letter and only enter trades when all your parameters/confluences are met.
The markets take from the impatient and give to the patient ones.
The example I am using on chart is using a trend following strategy of our own.
This strategy is a good win percentage and I know that as the built in strategy tester shows me all the stats.
As always the report box is at the bottom of the idea showing those very stats.
A 61% win rate means losers still happen and as you will see on the chart the buy trade hit stop loss before price went on an upward trend.
The old trader in me would of been pouring over this chart trying to guess which way will it go?
What should I do enter a long again? That would of paid of in this instance but not the logical thing to have done it would of been luck and luck only.
Who knows with emotions at play would I of had a thought the price was going to head down? Then place a sell order?
Luckily I didn't have to make any of those choices with emotions at play.
I accepted the loss on the fact I know I'm trading a proven strategy and I simply waited for the next trade alert and let probability play out.
The next trade was a short that found it's intended take profit target.
This process is more simpler for those who are using a mechanical trading system like the one on chart.
But regardless of system or approach in use if you are following the trading plan to the letter revenge trading shouldn't occur.
Find an edge, apply that edge, stick to the proven plan and revenge trading won't be your issue.
Instead you'll be one of the patient ones that the market is giving to 👌👍
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I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily.
Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way.
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Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏
Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌
No one likes missing out, do they?
Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this.
The stats for this pair are shown below too.
Thank you.
Darren
Managing Negative Emotions - Psychology of Winning TradersHi Traders. When it comes to trading, psychology is often the biggest pieces among strategy and risk management. In this workshop, I will be breaking down 3 of the most common emotional issues happening on most retail traders. To becoming a consistently profitable trader, it's never about eliminating emotions. Emotions are biological not psychological, it exists within our body system, which cannot be removed completely. But what you can do is to condition your mind to organize its performance, and reduce emotions to the least possible.
If you enjoy the content, make sure you follow my profile and give me a thumbs up for daily fx forecast & educational content.
Trade safe and take care.
Leave Your Ego At The DoorAl Pacino played John Milton in the 1997 film the Devil’s Advocate. Milton ran a hugely successful law firm as a front. The fictional character was really the devil. The final line of the movie is, “Vanity is definitely my favorite sin.”
Vanity is excessive pride in or admiration of one’s own abilities, appearance, or achievements. There is a fine line between vanity and ego. Ego is a person’s sense of self-esteem or self-importance. Vanity may be the devil’s favorite sin, but ego can be a trader or investor’s worst nightmare. Ego gets in the way of rational, logical, and reasonable conclusions because fear and greed can tug on our egos and cause us to make mistakes that are sins when growing our nest eggs.
The quest to buy at the low- Ego leads us to state the market is wrong
Looking to sell at the “high”- A recipe for disaster
Following trends requires no ego at all
Suppressing emotions is harder than you think
Never listen to that voice on your shoulder- It leads you to make mistakes
The quest to buy at the low- Ego leads us to state the market is wrong
Human nature is a powerful force, but it deludes us to believe our gut instincts. When the price of an asset falls to a level where an investor or trader believes is a logical, reasonable, and rational low, they perceive the price as a bargain.
After an initial purchase, if the price continues to fall, our emotions cause a dangerous impulse. The little voice in our heads declares that the market is wrong. The market price is never the wrong price. It is the level where buyers and sellers meet in a transparent environment, the marketplace. All of the fundamental analysis in the world can go out of the window when sellers overwhelm buyers. A perfect example occurred on April 20, 2020, in the crude oil futures arena. Who wouldn’t want to buy crude oil at zero? After all, what is the risk? Well, there turned out to be plenty of risk for those who purchased the nearby NYMEX crude oil futures on April 20, 2020, at zero, negative $10, negative $20, and even negative $30. Those with long positions on the expiring contract who could not store the energy commodity learned an expensive lesson.
As the chart shows, a purchase of the expiring futures contract at zero looked more than ugly at negative $40.32 per barrel, the April 20, 2020 low.
The oil example is dramatic. However, it is a reminder that the quest to buy the low in any market has everything to do with ego and little to do with making a profit.
Looking to sell at the “high”- A recipe for disaster
It is easier for most investors and traders to rationalize a long position as they assess the total risk from the current price level to zero. Oil was an exception to that assumption.
Meanwhile, shorting an asset has the same ego dynamics. Bull and bear markets can take prices to levels on the up and downside that defy logic, reason, and rational analysis. There are many instances where prices rise to levels that make no sense. The lumber market in May 2021 is the perfect example.
The annual chart of the illiquid lumber futures market shows the wood price never traded over the 1993 $493.50 per 1,000 board feet level before 2017. After falling to a low of $251.50 in early 2020 as the global pandemic gripped markets across all asset classes, the price took off on the upside. At $660 in August 2020, it reached a new record high. At $1,000 in September 2020, the price was irrational, and it more than halved in value, reaching a low of just over $490 in October 2020. In May 2021, the price exploded to $1711.20 per 1,000 board feet before collapsing.
Lumber is a dramatic example, but it reflects the potential for the ego to trigger impulses that lead traders and investors to financial ruin. Selling short at $1000 the second time up and ignoring the power of the trend was disastrous. Just because a market price rises to a high, does not mean it cannot go higher a lot higher.
Following trends requires no ego at all
Following trends requires a special skill, which is no skill at all. Following trends allows us to go with the flow, ignore expert advice, the news, and any other exogenous forces. The only tool necessary is a simple chart that displays the path of least resistance of the price. And, it does not matter what the asset is; it can be a stock, a commodity, a currency, a bond, or any other product with liquidity that allows for effective execution of buy and sell orders.
Following trends allow the markets to work for us instead of us slaving for the market. The process is entirely objective, while fundamental analysis is completely subjective. So many variables determine the path of least resistance of market prices, making it impossible to legislate for all potential outcomes. Experts may make a compelling case for buying or selling an asset, but they do not have a monopoly on the truth or offer any guaranty.
James Surowiecki wrote The Wisdom of Crowds in 2004, arguing that the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies, and nations. A price chart is the roadmap of the crowd’s wisdom.
Suppressing emotions is harder than you think
Tucking away your ego takes practice. Understanding that ego triggers the emotions that lead to pushing the buy or sell button is the first step.
Many investors wind up selling the lows and buying the highs in wild markets because they allow fear and greed to guide their behavior. Wild markets are the exception, not the norm. Training yourself to manage your ego objectively will reduce the odds of allowing it to destroy you when the you know what hits the fan in markets.
Eliminating ego from all investment and trading decisions starts with ignoring the news, experts, and any inputs other than the herd behavior in markets.
Since prices rise or fall to levels that many believe are not sustainable, following trends allows you to take advantage of their mistakes. Make a conscious decision that you will end the quest to pick a high or low in any market is a great place to start. Successful trend following will cause you to be long at the high and short at the low, but that is OK. It will also allow you to take the most significant percentage from a market move when trends emerge.
Moreover, following trends is an automatic exercise that reduces stress.
Never listen to that voice on your shoulder- It leads you to make mistakes
Eliminate any thoughts about picking lows or highs. When I first began trading in the early 1980s, a colleague in London offered sage advice, saying, “Andy, when you look to pick a bottom, all you will wind up with is a dirty finger.”
Ignore those voices in your head that appeal to your ego, trigger fear and greed, and lead you down a losing path. Never forget that your view has no relevance whatsoever. Vanity is definitely the devil’s favorite sin. Ego and vanity are dangerous. Follow those trends. Approach markets with a clear risk-reward plan where the rewards are equal to or greater than the capital at risk. Understand that you will be wrong all the time, but the market will never be wrong.
The most successful traders do not make money on all of their trades or investment positions. Many will tell you that losers far outnumber winners. However, success depends on catching that wave or substantial trend that yields the most significant profits.
Leave your ego at the door; it is your worst enemy, while the trend or the market’s wisdom is your only friend in the pursuit of profits.
Use the link below to register for the Monday Night Strategy Call. You can also sign up for free using the other link to gain access to full articles.
Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Mastering One Strategy Dear traders,
My name is KeySlot and I have been trading in the forex markets for over five years now and have gone threw a lot to get to the point I am at now. I have gone threw pretty much all of the common beginner mistakes from risking too much on a single trade, wanting to become a millionaire in one trade, or becoming too cocky and thinking that I am unstoppable have all been some of my downfalls in my journey and probably something that many of you are way too familiar with. Today I am going to be going over one of these major problems and will be going over more in the near future. I hope you get something out of me sharing my experience and problems I have gone through.
Jumping from strategy to strategy:
When starting off in the trading game everyone will go to Youtube and look up "best forex strategy" click on that video and try to copy their strategy. While sometimes you might get lucky and find a really good system there are a lot of systems that will work for one person but may not work for another. This does not mean that it is a bad strategy but it just might not be your style of trading, this is why I say everyone is different. Some people will be willing to risk a lot more money than some other people will want to do, some people will want to spend more time in a trade than others, and some people will want to trade other pairs than one another.
This is why I fell in love with trading, every single person can see a pair a different way and approach that market a certain way, every one can be different for once. When I first started trading I also did the same thing, I went to Youtube and searched for a strategy and probably went through two or three different ways of approaching the market a week. After a few weeks of switching back and forth between strategies I realized that all of these indicators are not really doing anything for me, I thought that when they told me to buy price HAD to go up no matter what. But I quickly realized that this is not the case, indicators are lagging and cannot tell the price of the future or we would all be filthy rich. When I understood this concept that indicators could be actually hurting me more than helping me I ditched them completely, this is when I started to study the concept of Price Action.
When I switched to price action the market just seemed so much clearer to me and a light bulb seemed to click suddenly in my head. But then I doubted my self again, I took a few trades using solely price action and they were all losing trades, guess what I did? I went right back to using the indicators that eventually lead to another losing streak. No matter what I had done I was always taking losing trades, it seemed like the market was out to get me and only me.
After around a year and a half of trading I had finally gone back to price action and told myself this is something that I need to master. I wanted to learn how to read the market like a book and was ready to do anything to do so. It was only until I devoted all my time into learning this one continuation strategy using price action where I started to become a break even and eventually a profitable trader. I started to see the same setup over and over again but I learned what made my setup one I would take versus one I would not.
This is where it became very useful taking a deep dive into one singular strategy, overtime I saw my setup time and time again but I began to notice that sometimes when my setup had formed there would be small details that would stick out to me after seeing it so many times. After doing a good amount of trades I was really able to pick out the really big winners and started to cut out the losers. I noticed that some pair just seemed to not work on certain pairs and this is when I started to narrow down my list.
Becoming an expert in one list of pairs and one strategy allowed for me to become a more profitable trader by mastering a single strategy and being able to pick out a good trade with a higher probability and allowed for me to avoid getting into any losing trades as well. While it might sound stupid or too good to be true, focus on one strategy and a set list of pairs and only those things for one month and tell me if your results have improved. Another very important thing when starting out is keeping a trade journal, I will go more in detail on a journal in the upcoming week.
I hope all of you have an amazing trading week.
Thanks again,
Keyslot
What Are 10 Things You See On Daily September Chart? Add YoursExamples: Do this on daily charts- understanding candlestick language will assist you in trading and risk management.
1) Supply Zone/Resistance area
2) Demand Zone/Support area
3) Trends- bearish or bullish
4) Price Action? Top to bottom how many pips?
5) Any Engulfing Candlestick patterns?
6) Any Harami Candlestick patterns?
7) Any Pinbar Candlestick patterns?
8) And Doji's (undecided) candlesticks?
9) From 1st day to last day of September- was it bearish? was it bullish? or doji (monthly candlestick?)
10) Where are critical price line levels (round numbers or psychological numbers)
11) ADD YOURS...
PLEASE ADD IN COMMENTS: What do you see on attached naked or price action only chart of AUDJPY- thanks!!!
Where and How could you have entered into a trade on this chart, with enter, stops and targets set up and make a profit?
Statistical Coincidence Analyzer for TradingView membersWe regularly analyze the ideas of a particular TradingView participant to find out the degree of overall coincidence of the real price movement with the forecast.
Very often, those who share ideas have a very high rating and a lot of likes, but in general, the real price movement did not coincide at all with the forecast.
It's time to show in the participant's profile the overall percentage of coincidences of the forecast with the real price movement, which is more important than the rating level and the number of likes.
Please support the idea of launching such an analyzer if you agree.
Why Do Traders Fail?Most of the novice traders believe that trading FOREX is a gamble!
Why do traders fail?
1) They trade with the aim of getting luck to make money.
2) Their greed exceeds their need.
3) They think trading is a game of chance and luck and do not get the proper education to succeed.
4) They do not favor to invest enough time and amount for education and mentor-ship to get basic knowledge.
5) They have poor focus.
6) They are more emotional than intellectual.
7) After failing, they want to make up their loss; therefore they may further incur loss.
The biggest “MYTH vs REALITY” in tradingDear traders, happy Friday and welcome on our Educational Post for this week.
Today we will be talking about the most popular myths in the trading world and compare it to the reality. “99.99% win rate”, “50 trades winning streak”, “100% monthly return”. Do these phrases sound familiar? All of us have come across people and companies promising that they accomplish the above stated proclamations GUARANTEED. These individuals tend to deceive the beginners and sell them a fake dream. However, trading does not work like that.
If we take a look at the chart, we can see the 4H timeframe graphic of GOLD. We decided to use this graph to illustrate the idea. On the left hand side of the chart, we can see an example of the strategy that the above stated type of individuals use to deceive a huge mass of people. Fake and unrealistic risk-to-reward ratios, impractical percentage returns and other tricks appeal the newcomers and lead them to the mousetrap set by the so-called “gurus”.
On the other hand, on the right side of the screen, we can see the reality of trading.
Not every trade will be a winning one. The most important thing is to follow the principles of risk management, have patience and discipline!
We hope you enjoyed this educational post! If you have any proposals on what should our next educational post be about, please feel free to write down the topics of your interest in the comment section below.
Investroy team is wishing you all a great upcoming weekend!
What Is Capital Partitioning ? How will it help you as a trader?Hi everyone:
Let's talk about capital partitioning, which is a risk management approach for consistent traders to utilize to allow them to leverage their capital.
You may ask what exactly is capital partitioning ? well to simply put it in words, it is basically divide up your trading $ in the current trading account into 2 or more sub accounts.
So what's the point of doing that you may ask ?
Well, with leverage, a consistent trader does not require to have their entire money deposit into one trading account.
They can allocate the asset into different trading accounts to reduce risk as well as trading different markets available
Let's take a look here:
Say I have a $100,000 trading capital. I understand risk management, trading psychology, and will not over trade, over risk and revenge trade.
Hence, it's in my best interest to divide the $ in this account into a different accounts, or simply in a liquid-able account such as a savings account, stocks, bond..etc
Here are a few scenarios that you can implement into your trading accounts.
Understand that the % to allocate, what other trading accounts to deposit $ into, and how to move around the $ is totally up to you as a trader.
The most important is to make sure you are a consistent trader before you approach this type of method.
As more accounts you divide your capital into, the more % you will need to risk per account as you need to open bigger position sizes now.
Any questions, comments, or feedback welcome to let me know.
Thank you
I will share other risk management educational videos that can be helpful for you.
Risk Management: When/How to move SL to BE and to profit in a running trade ?
Risk Management: How to filter trading opportunities if multiple setups are presenting entries:
Risk Management: 3 different entries on how to enter the impulsive phrase of price action
Risk Management 101
Risk Management: How to set a Take Profit (TP) for your trades
Risk Management: How to Enter and set SL and TP for an impulse move in the market
Risk Management: How to scale in the impulsive phrase of the market condition?
Risk Management: Combine everything you learn to prevent blowing a trading account