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EURUSD: The fate of the USD depends on the Fed's 2024 movesThe US dollar has been relatively stable this year, having strengthened significantly following the Fed's rate hike in 2022, but could face downward pressure in 2024 if the Fed cuts rates as expected. . The dollar has fallen only 2% against other major currencies this year, its first annual decline since 2020, supported by strong U.S. economic growth and the Federal Reserve's efforts to keep borrowing costs high. Ta. The Fed's surprising shift in stance came at its December meeting, when Chairman Jerome Powell suggested a sharp rate hike cycle that would send interest rates soaring to multi-decade highs was likely. It ended due to falling inflation. This has led to expectations for a 75 basis point (bp) rate cut next year, with the dollar weakening as lower interest rates generally make U.S. assets less attractive to profit-seeking investors. There is a possibility that Strategists are expecting a weaker dollar next year, but the possibility of an earlier rate cut could accelerate the dollar's weakness. But the strong U.S. economy could pose a challenge for those betting on the dollar. Kit Jacks, chief currency strategist at Société Générale (OTC:SCGLY), said aggressive monetary policy and growth stimulus in the US led to strong dollar strength. La, just like in the 1980s. Impending policy changes could eliminate some of these gains. The development of the dollar is particularly important given its central role in global finance. A weaker dollar could benefit the United States by making exports more competitive and increasing multinational corporations' profits when converting foreign earnings into dollars. According to FactSet, about a quarter of S&P 500 companies (INDEXSP: INX companies) derive more than half of their revenue from international markets. A December survey of 71 foreign exchange strategists predicted the dollar would weaken against G10 currencies in 2024, with most of the decline occurring in the second half of this year. The outcome will likely depend on the relative performance of the US economy and the speed with which central banks around the world adjust their policies. The European Central Bank is resisting pressure to cut interest rates to fight inflation as the euro zone struggles with a deepening economic downturn. The euro has appreciated more than 3% against the dollar this year. In contrast, Neuberger Berman's Thanos Baldas remains bullish on the dollar over the next 12 months, citing continued weakness in economies outside the United States.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
EUR/USD Short and GBP/NZD ShortEUR/USD Short • If price impulses down below our most recent correction on the one hour chart and a subsequent tight flag forms, then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/NZD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a subsequent impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll filter the latter on the fifteen minute chart and be looking to get short with either a risk entry within it if the flag is structured, or a reduced risk entry on the break of it if it's unstructured or I don't manage to secure a risk entry. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Short
by StewySongs
1
USDJPY: USD/JPY hit a 5-month low due to Fed - BoJ policy divergJPY's rally benefited from hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda when he emphasized policy divergence between the Fed and BoJ. USDJPY is falling again after 2 consecutive sessions of increase. Technical indicators show that the downward momentum is still strong. The key resistance to watch is the 200-day MA at 142.75, with the next target at 143 and 144. On the contrary, if the price can be maintained below this mark, the downtrend will be consolidated. Sellers may aim for the 141.90/85 zone, followed by the multi-month bottom at 141 set last week, support at 140.45 and the 140 mark.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
XAUUSD: USD recovered during Thursday sessionOn the FX market, the USD recovered in the US session after weakening in the first half of the trading day, despite the report that last week's unemployment claims exceeded expectations (218K vs 211K forecast) and sales December pending home sales in the United States disappointed (unchanged compared to forecast +0.8%). At the end of the session, USD increased on a large scale after 4 consecutive sessions of decline, except for JPY. GBP led the decline, followed by EUR. Gold increased more than $7 to nearly $2088.50/oz at the beginning of the Asian session, but retreated in the European session and the decline slowed to around 42065/oz, down more than $12 during the day. In the debt market, 2-year and 10-year yields increased 3.7bp and 4.6bp to 4.28% and 3.85%, respectively.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Chart_MasterPro
EURUSD: The USD fell as expectations of interest rate cuts increThe U.S. dollar is on track to decline annually, weakening from two consecutive years of strong gains as expectations grow for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year. The dollar index against six major currencies hit a five-month low of 100.81, reflecting Wednesday's 0.5% decline and expectations for a 2.6% decline for the year. Market participants are keeping an eye on the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. The futures market indicates that there is an 89% probability that interest rates will be cut by March 2024, and it has been pointed out that there is a possibility that interest rates will be cut by March next year. Despite these forecasts, some analysts, including those at Monex USA, have expressed skepticism about the Fed's willingness to ease early, saying the dollar could appreciate if the expected rate cuts do not materialize. suggested. In contrast to the Fed's unexpectedly dovish stance at its December meeting, other major central banks, including the European Central Bank, remained committed to keeping interest rates high for a longer period of time. However, markets believe the ECB is considering cutting interest rates by up to 165 basis points next year. Analysts at Monex USA highlighted the unstable economic situation in Europe and the United Kingdom, predicting that their central banks could cut interest rates before the Fed. The euro rose 0.09% to $1.1113, close to a five-month high and posted a 3.7% annual gain, its best performance since 2020.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBP/AUD Short, GBP/CAD Long and GBP/USD ShortGBP/AUD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/CAD Long • If price impulses up above our area of value, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/USD Short • If price pushes up above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
GBPUSD: US dollar depreciates as expectations for interest rate The U.S. dollar is on track to decline annually, weakening from two consecutive years of strong gains as expectations grow for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year. The dollar index against six major currencies hit a five-month low of 100.81, reflecting Wednesday's 0.5% decline and expectations for a 2.6% decline for the year. In contrast to the Fed's unexpectedly dovish stance at its December meeting, other major central banks, including the European Central Bank, remained committed to keeping interest rates high for a longer period of time. However, markets believe the ECB is considering cutting interest rates by up to 165 basis points next year. Sterling hit $1.2813, its highest since Aug. 10, and is on course for its first annual rise of 6% since 2017. The Bank of England faces a difficult environment. Challenges posed by rising inflation in the UK. The ability of the Fed to cut interest rates as aggressively as the Fed and the ECB may be limited. This has widened the yield differential with U.S. and European bonds, making British assets more attractive and supporting the pound.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBPJPY: The Japanese Yen will likely be the most interesting The new governor of the BoJ, Kazuo Ueda, has not made drastic changes in monetary policy as expected, causing the Japanese yen to weaken against the USD in 2023. Positive signs appeared in November when the USD/JPY pair fell and bond yields also fell, raising hopes that the BoJ was about to change policy. The BoJ is expected to make an important policy decision next spring, based on the results of salary negotiations. If the BoJ does not change policy as expected, the yen could continue to struggle in the first half of 2024. Although the BoJ may change policy later, this uncertainty will cause the yen to fluctuate widely in the first half of next year. In short, the prospects of the Japanese yen next year depend largely on the BoJ's decision after the salary negotiations. The lack of certainty could create major volatility in the Japanese currency market.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
USDJPY: Asian session update: Stocks and USD fall as they begin USD weakened, JPY and antipodeans led the rise Asian stocks fell, with futures on the S&P 500 index up slightly by 0.07% US 10-year bond yield falls 1.7bp to 3.88% Gold increased 0.5% to around $2063/oz WTI oil increased 0.2% to above $73.70/barrel Bitcoin accumulates around 43.5K Investors continued to digest November PCE and December Consumer Sentiment data released on Friday, which showed that monthly inflation in the US fell for the first time in more than 3½ years, while sentiment Consumer sentiment remains strong, reflecting the economy's durability. A deceleration in core inflation and growing recession fears will prompt the Fed to shift from "committing to fighting inflation with higher interest rates for longer" to reassuring markets that it will "not hold rates." stayed high for too long". In the FX market, major currencies increased slightly after the Christmas holiday as the USD weakened. USD/JPY is steady at 142.30. The prospect of the BoJ removing its ultra-loose policy has supported JPY's rise in recent weeks. Yesterday, BoJ Governor Ueda announced that the possibility of reaching the inflation target is "gradually increasing" and that they will consider adjusting policy if there is "enough" prospect of reaching the 2% target in a sustainable way.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
GBP/CAD Long and EUR/USD ShortGBP/CAD Long • If price impulses up above our most recent high, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. EUR/USD Short • If price pushes up to and ideally just above our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get short with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
by StewySongs
1
EURJPY: MUFG CEO: BoJ may eliminate negative interest rate policMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) President Hiroki Kamezawa stated in an interview with Japanese media outlet Asahi Shimbun: The BoJ is gradually achieving its price target and wage hike "This is only a matter of time." The negative interest rate policy could be eliminated as early as 2024 due to positive developments in wages and prices. This policy has put pressure on the businesses of financial institutions because it reduces the profit margins they can earn on lending. MUFG is Japan's largest financial group and the world's second largest bank holding company.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
GBP/CAD Long and GBP/USD LongGBP/CAD Long • If price impulses up above our most recent high, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. GBP/USD Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up above our most recent low followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
1
USDJPY: Dollar fluctuates as views of interest rate cuts grow; TThe US dollar is experiencing volatility against most major currencies today, with market sentiment affected by predictions that the US Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates. The Japanese yen remains an exception, maintaining its position against the dollar following the Bank of Japan's decision to continue its expansionary monetary policy. Federal Reserve officials tried to manage market expectations after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting last week, which hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024. This outlook has led to a surge in financial markets, with current forecasts suggesting a 67.5% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March meeting, based on the CME FedWatch tool. Senior financial markets analyst at Capital.com, Kyle Rodda, commented on the situation, saying that the Federal Reserve must now decide whether to match market expectations or counter them, potentially causing market instability. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Tuesday reiterated his forecast for two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, but emphasized that immediate action was not necessary. At the same time, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that the central bank's ability to lower interest rates will depend on the trajectory of the economy. The dollar index, which compares the US dollar to a basket of other currencies, remained relatively unchanged at 102.20 after falling more than 0.3% earlier. Last week, the index hit a four-month low at 101.76. Rodda also mentioned that upcoming economic data will be important in determining the direction of the dollar, as it will indicate whether the expected interest rate cuts for next year are justified. Investors are now awaiting the release of the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, which could shed light on whether inflation is slowing enough to justify easing. policy next year or not. In Japan, the yen traded lower at 143.78 yen against the dollar, having weakened after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, which did not suggest a change was imminent from negative interest rates. According to National Australia Bank senior foreign exchange strategist Rodrigo Catril, expectations are now set for a policy change no sooner than April.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
2
GBPUSD: The dollar finds its footing as Fed officials downplay hThe dollar index and dollar index futures both traded flat during the Asian session on Tuesday, but marked strong recoveries from four-month lows over the past two sessions. A series of Fed officials said that although the bank will cut interest rates in 2024, expectations of an imminent shift are unfounded. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the bank has not committed to cutting interest rates anytime soon and joined some other officials in pushing back expectations of a sudden drop in interest rates. However, market valuations are suggesting a nearly 63% chance of a rate cut by March 2024. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts also said Tuesday that the central bank will cut interest rates five times by 2024, with the majority of the cuts coming in the first half of the year. ​
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
1
GBP/CAD Long, CAD/CHF Long, NZD/USD Long and AUD/USD LongGBP/CAD Long • If price impulses up above our most recent high, it does so in a convincing manner and a tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. CAD/CHF Long • If price corrects and a three touch tight flag forms, then I'll be looking to get long with a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. NZD/USD Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up above our most recent low followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair. AUD/USD Long • If price pushes down to and ideally just below our area of value, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for a convincing impulse back up above our most recent low followed by a tight flag and then I'll be looking to get long with either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it. • If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.
Long
by StewySongs
9
USDJPY: Goldman Sachs: Reduced 12-month USD/JPY forecast to 140 Goldman Sachs Data reported on December 18 that Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for next year's exchange rate and expects the US dollar to weaken further. “The biggest revisions to our forecasts are on exchange-sensitive currencies like the Japanese yen,” strategists including Danny Suwanapruti and Michael Cahill wrote in a Dec. 15 report. , the Swedish krona and the Indonesian rupiah, these currencies will struggle under a 'keep interest rates higher for longer' regime. " Goldman Sachs forecasts USD/JPY three-month target at 145, six-month target at 142 and 12-month target at 140; previous forecasts for the same period were 155, 155 and 150 respectively.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro
🔥EURUSD BEARISH ANALYSIS 💥💥Hello traders what do you think about euousd)? traders euousd breakout trade line support levels Rsl retet To lower high Rsl now waiting for retest same Rsl? Now see I will down 👇 support levels ✅ Key levels 1.07948 Key levels 1.06500 Key levels 1.05500 💵 steady, euro soft as traders wager rate cuts to begin in Q1 Dec 6, 202314:19 GMT+5 The dollar held near a two-week high on Wednesday, while the euro was weak across the board as markets ramped up bets that the European Central Bank will cut interest rates as early as March. The euro EURUSD was down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.0783, after touching a three-week low of $1.0775, as markets adjust rate expectations lower following soft data and dovish central commentary. The single currency was also at a three-month low against the pound EURGBP , a five-week low versus the yen EURJPY and a 6-1/2 week low against the Swiss franc EURCHF . "The story in currency markets is mostly about a softer euro," said Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. "Yesterday's comments from ECB's Schnabel supported the market view of early rate cuts." Influential policy-maker Isabel Schnabel on Tuesday told Reuters that further interest rate hikes could be taken off the table given a "remarkable" fall in inflation. Markets are now placing around an 85% chance that the ECB cuts interest rates at the March meeting, with almost 150 basis points worth of cuts priced by the end of next year.
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
EURUSD: EUR/USD holds steady at peak, awaiting PMI data.The main movement of EUR/USD this week was driven by statements expressing the views of the Fed and ECB with a strong increase from 1.0800 to the important resistance level of 1.1000 yesterday. This makes this currency pair face a rather interesting situation when Eurozone PMI data will be published this afternoon. Does the above data support the ECB's stance of "keeping interest rates higher for a long time"? Or will it pressure central banks to act faster next year? Additionally, another factor to consider is the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. The odds of a rate cut in March are currently around 80%, so there won't be much room left to exploit this story on the USD side. However, for the ECB, the rate of a cut in March is currently only 55%. Therefore, any change in this possibility will depend on upcoming data with PMI being reliable data in forecasting the economic outlook. Another factor to note: Today is the options expiration date for EUR/USD at 1.0950. This price level will help the pair be more stable in case any downward pressure occurs.
Short
by Chart_MasterPro