Trading
USD/JPY Surges Higher:US Economic Strength Fuels Dollar MomentumThe USD/JPY exchange rate continues its upward trajectory, aligning with our forecast as robust US economic data bolsters the dollar.
The price movement reflects the strong momentum of the USD, with the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report indicating that commercial traders maintain a strong position, while retail investors are riding the wave. Our initial price target is set at 155.050, and beyond that, we anticipate a potential move towards 158.000, where a notable supply zone exists.
Recent US macroeconomic indicators point to significant growth in the fourth quarter. Investor sentiment remains buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts in December. However, the Fed may emphasize the strengthening economic conditions and rising inflation, which could lead to a more hawkish stance in their forward guidance.
Conversely, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate levels during Thursday's meeting. This comes after indications of a possible 25 basis point reduction just a week prior. Dovish comments from BoJ officials suggest that the bank will likely postpone any decisions until January to evaluate how US policies under the Trump administration might affect the Japanese economy.
Today's economic calendar highlights US Retail Sales, which are projected to reflect strong consumer spending. This, combined with positive services activity reported earlier this week, is likely to curtail any downside pressures on the US dollar, at least until the Fed meeting's outcome.
We are optimistic about a continued upward movement in the USD/JPY pair.
Our Initial Forecast:
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XAU/USD Expected Last Long Swing trade of year 2024 in Spot Considering the completion of the corrective downside move in gold, we can expect two swing-long trades this month.
Make sure you follow your risk-reward ratio during placing these trades.
Trade no. 1 - Entry - 2636
SL - 2694
TP - 2790
Trade no. 2 - Entry - 2605
SL - 2694
TP - 2790
DXY Is Going Up! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 106.958.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 109.013 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GOLD Will Grow! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 45m
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 2,643.843.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 2,651.719.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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EURJPY Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURJPY.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 161.281.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 159.582 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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US30 Will Go Lower! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for US30.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 43,616.98.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 43,408.72 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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USOIL SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello, Friends!
We are now examining the USOIL pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 66.51 level.
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AUD/CHF BULLS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|LONG
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go long on AUD/CHF right now from the support line below with the target of 0.566 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general uptrend on the previous 1W candle and the oversold situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the lower BB band.
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NZD/CHF SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello, Friends!
Bullish trend on NZD/CHF, defined by the green colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is oversold based on the BB lower band proximity, makes me expect a bullish rebound from the support line below and a retest of the local target above at 0.514.
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GBP/CAD BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GBP/CAD is trending down which is clear from the red colour of the previous weekly candle. However, the price has locally surged into the overbought territory. Which can be told from its proximity to the BB upper band. Which presents a beautiful trend following opportunity for a short trade from the resistance line above towards the demand level of 1.804.
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CAD/CHF (Trade Recap) and EUR/AUD ShortEUR/AUD Short
Minimum entry requirements:
• 1H impulse down below area of interest.
• If tight 5 min continuation follows, reduced risk entry on the break of it.
• If tight 15 min continuation follows, 5 min risk entry within it, or reduced risk entry on the break of it.
The economy is looking to the FedThe Fed has started its two-day policy meeting and is expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points. However, the focus will be on the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot, which provide guidance for interest rates in 2025.
While US Treasury yields and real yields both edged lower, the US dollar remained steady. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.379%, while the DXY index rose 0.07% to 107.01.
On the technical front, gold prices maintain their long-term uptrend but are under pressure in the short term. The key support level now is $2,600/ounce, which corresponds to the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). A break of this level could send prices lower to $2,531 – the August 20 high. Conversely, if the price breaks above $2,650, the next target will be $2,670 (50-day SMA), and then $2,700.
In addition to the Fed’s decision, investors are awaiting the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to gauge the future direction of policy. Signs that the incoming Trump administration may push for expansionary fiscal policy have raised expectations of a change in the Fed’s stance in the near term.
World gold price todayGold prices continued to weaken today due to stronger-than-expected important US economic news. The US retail sales report for November showed an increase of 0.7%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the forecast increase of 0.5%.
This information made some gold investors worry that the FED may postpone the 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut after the end of the monetary policy meeting in the early morning of December 19. Since then, many people have temporarily stopped trading gold.
On the other hand, gold is also likely to have limited purchasing power due to some forecasts of rising inflation in the US, a slowing labor market..., prompting the FED to stop cutting interest rates early in 2025. At that time, the USD could increase in value very strongly, negatively affecting the world gold price trend.
The question now is whether the Fed will be more hawkish or dovish than the market has been expecting. Investors are now expecting the Fed to be more cautious in easing monetary policy, given the impact of Donald Trump’s agenda on inflation.
XAUUSD - Daily | BREAKOUT IncomingSimple Trading - Ascending Triangle
Gold is overall bullish so if the pattern breaks, it should break to the upside. Of course, if gold can not maintain bullish momentum, it may result in a further decline in the price.
This pattern may not break out until the end of Dec. maybe into Jan. with this in mind we are still about to take price action trades on the smaller time frames.
Levels to look out for:
BULLISH:
2673 - 4hr FVG low
2683 - 4hr FVG High
2700 - supply and demand
BEARISH:
2624 - 1hr Head and Shoulder Target
2610 - Daily FVG High
2590 - Daily FVG Midpoint
2575 - Daily FVG Low
2560 - Daily Double Bottom
FET LONG: Daily Bullish Orderflow. On all accounts, FET Bullish Orderflow:
1D BiSi (bullish fvg)
1D Mitigation Block [Orderblock alternative)
Optimal Trade Entry model (OTE) - 0.79 fib level.
Stop placement at $1.315, leveraging a wide stop. This is a compound position from previous long setup posted a couple of weeks ago
Mobileye - LET ME BLOW YOUR MIND!MOBILEYE - NASDAQ:MBLY 🚘 BUCKLE UP!
If you have been following me long enough you know that the majority of my charts and analysis are longer term and on a weekly chart but don't get it twisted, I'm not a one trick pony friend! I have High Five Trading strategies for Day, Swing, and Long Trading. 😘
Daily Chart Analysis (H5_S):
I'm sure you already see it on the screen below! I just realized it today and my mind is blown so yours should be to! The most successful chart pattern has just popped up on my highest conviction trade/ investment! A beautiful Cup&Handle Pattern setting up for a major breakout and Short Seller Face RIPPER!
-CupnHandle Pattern - Breakout point $19.30
-H5 Indicator is about to flip to GREEN on the Swing Indicator
-You can see it's about to flip GREEN through the individual indicators that tie into the strategy. Bullish price action, Bullish Engulfing Candlestick, RSI Upward cross, Trend (Stoch) Bullish Uptrend into the sweet spot, Lagging MACD Indicator is still above zero line and about to cross to the upside and the final BULLISH piece of the puzzle.
-Williams R% Strong Divergence and Higher Lows
-Anchored Volume Profile Shelf with massive GAP
-Weekly chart analysis and measure moves haven't been realized yet either and the weekly chart is still very BULLISH.
All this to say when you have a bullish weekly chart (longer term) and a flip into a bullish Daily Chart the Upward moves are FAST and catch everyone off guard...but not us friends!
So I'll make it easy for you:
✅Fundamentally Undervalued (Fair Value $30+)
✅Top 3 in a multi-trillion dollar TAM in AV Sector
✅Headwinds turning into Tailwinds
✅H5 Weekly Chart Bullish
✅H5 Daily Chart Bullish
✅22%+ Short Float (80% of shares locked up)
✅Measured moves not realized
✅Every respectable Chartist is BULLISH
PREDICTIONS:
🔜🎯$20+ BEFORE EOY
🎯$28+ BEFORE MAY
BOOK 👏 MARK 👏 IT 👏
ASML is finally about to MOVE! 65% UPSIDE🚨 H5 TRADE SETUP 🚨
Giving this one away for free and asking nothing in return! Lets get into the setup!
NASDAQ:ASML 🏭
As you can see on chart below we have a multitude of things to talk about! Lets talk about what we have currently and what we need for this to be a trade worth entering.
-Beginning of this year we had a multi-year cup&handle breakout that never got to it's realized measured move of $1,124 before we had a pullback the measured time for this breakout is Jan2026 so basically 2025 we should realize that measured move. With the pullback we had we over compensated and broke through the support turning it back to resistance in which we now need to breakout over again and flip it back into support before heading higher.
-We have now created a new charting pattern, a falling wedge pattern in which we have just broken out of this week if we hold into EOW. This has a measured move up to $1,182 with a mid-year timeframe of Aug2025.
-We have a massive AVP Volume Shelf with a subsequent GAP to fill up to $883. Price held at this massive shelf and it should be used as a launch mechanism to send us back to ATHs.
-We held right at the Anchored VWAP Lower band as well from our bottom in 2022.
Now that we know what we have out of the H5 setup let's talk about what we need in order to enter this trade and make some gains!
-We need the H5 indicator to flip GREEN (Which it is very close to doing and could by EOW! Also, we want the H5 to cross through the yellow smoothing line as well.
-We need our Wr% to break up above at least -40, preferably -20.
-Finally, we want to see a break above $747
This is a long write up but I wanted to be thorough and fully explain the gameplan friends. This is still not a trade yet but it is a H5 setup that is getting close to a GREEN LIGHT!
🔜🎯$883
🎯$1,124 ⏲️Aug2025
🎯$1,182 ⏲️Feb2026
Not Financial Advice
META: Rising Wedge breaking aims at $900Meta Platforms is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.713, MACD = 12.470, ADX = 49.506), extending the uptrend inside the Rising Wedge that started in July. Technically that pattern is part of the larger Channel Up that dates more than a year back. That also started on a Rising Wedge, which when it broke, it made a +68.89% rise to a HH. So with the 1W RSI on a similar Bullish Cross, we expect the Rising Wedge to break soon and rise by more than +68% (TP = $900.00).
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