US 30yr T-Bonds Ideal EntryEntry plan is based on the US 30yr T-Bonds Topping Pattern .
Watching the fib retrace area for a high that would establish the right shoulder within the monthly head and shoulder pattern.
Quarterly bull cycle counts point towards a high during Q1 '18 which aligns with the monthly target of February '18. My trading account would welcome an earlier high with open arms but it's entirely up to the market.
Ideally I'd be able to hop in around $160-$161 after a rejection of that fib area and then ride the move down to my first target at $128 (2013 low). I'll probably take profit there and then go long back to the neckline of this pattern before the next move down to $89 (2000 major low). We still have awhile before we see price prepare to turn so this is a watch and wait.
My target reward:risk ratio is at least 5-6:1, again that depends on what price action appears.
I'll publish a more detailed plan as well as my entry if/when that time comes.
For more in depth analysis on this trade and others checkout my site, PatsTrades. Link is in my profile status box.
Thanks!
TLT
US 30yr T-Bonds Topping PatternThis is my favorite and the cleanest opportunity I have been able to find across all sectors/markets. I've been watching this develop for quite some time now and the evidence for a large sell-off into the future is piling up. The head and shoulder pattern on the quarterly/monthly is one of the best things in that pile.
We saw a false break to the upside during 2016 but then sold off hard to close below, forming a very large yearly high-test candle. We stalled at support during Q1 and have since rallied into Q2, establishing the neckline.
I'm now waiting for a retest of the fib retrace levels where a right shoulder would ideally form. If that does occur I think we'll see a continuation of this new long-term bearish trend that should head down to the Q4 '13 key low. If the stars align price will then bounce from there to establish a neckline within a much larger head and shoulder pattern with price pulling back to our current neckline and the fib retrace levels which would be sitting right on top of that area. We would then head down to retest the Q1 2000 low.
This entire theory could take between 5-10 years to play out but man is it the perfect candidate for the "big cahuna" title...
Checkout my website @ patstrades.com for more in-depth analysis on this trade and many others. The link can be found on my profile page in the status bar right below my picture.
Thanks for reading!
OPENING: TLT JUNE 16TH 117/MAY 19TH 119.5 PUT DIAGONALGetting long bonds here via a net credit diagonal that I filled for a .01 credit.
For diagonals and calendars, there aren't much in metrics to look at, since how much you make will depend on a wide variety of factors (i.e., IV, underlying price movement, etc.):
Theta: 1.02
Delta: 7.24
Notes: The idea here is basically to reduce your cost basis in the long option with the short one. Here, the long cost .50 to contract to put on ... .
Strangle on TLTSold the 118/124 Strangle with 52 days to expiration on TLT for 1.95 credit.
Always like to have trades on TLT so even thou the IV rank is low I like to add trades keeping the qty small and will look to diversify with other trades in bonds later on next week.
I am basically betting that we are still in a correction and will stay between my 124 calls and 118 puts.
Our break even are:
116.05
125.95
With a Probability of profit of 62%. Target is to buy it back at 50% of credit received increasing our probabilities to 75%.
TLT weekly - short term bullishTLT had double bottom and now broke out. First hurdle is 40 weeks MA (around $126) and if that is cleared it can possibly reach $130 level.
TLT breaks out on risk aversionTLT has broken out of the range. There has been a risk off mood with recent events in Syria and North Korea.
LOOKING TO GO LONG T-BONDS Promising setup developing at TLT (treasury bond ETF) at the daily timeframe.
Looking to go long with momentum or at pullback to the trendline.
First tactical target 200SMA, main target 129-130 area (measured move + 50% level of Jul-Dec 2016 move). Setup invalidated with daily close below 120.
spy spx500just not good-looking overall
next week, if continue this trend,
gap down will be filled soon
TLT Big Lizard, Neutral to bullish.Selling the 116 Straddle and buying the 118 Call for a total of $2.33 Credit.
We have no risk to the upside and we are betting the Rate change is already priced in and if something strange happens and we get a move higher we don't have any risk to the upside.
Our break even is at $113.67
That's 2.5% protection move to the downside. Last two times we had a rate change we had a move of 1.6% and 1.7%.
With 39 days to expiration, we have a 74% probability to make money in this trade.
10yr note % yield goes down after rate hikes? I'm confused. Please someone explain why the 10yr note yield TNX goes down after FOMC raises interest rates? I would expect the relationship between the two to be pretty much linear.
TLT-Looking to buy if support holds.Technically speaking
The ~116 level contains a confluence of support. The trendline going back to 2011 and the low prints going back to 2015 should provide support. We shall see.
On the updside, 128 is the first level of resistance.
What to do?
I will be looking to dips around the 116 level, targeting a move back toward 128. My willingness to buy will depend on price action around the 116 level.
I will update this chart when things change.
TLT ISHARES 20 YEARS TREASURY BONDTLT ISHARES 20 YEARS TREASURY BOND
bearish move anticipated. I see two holes to be filled and one is at the bottom. TLT never leaves gaps unfilled. the motto is "leave no gaps (man) behind".
TNX: Nice PennantTextbook consolidation as we wait for more signals from the FOMC. Fed futures showing no hike in March but two hikes by December, expect another leg up once subsequent meetings start pricing in. Good time to scale in.
TLT - This should open your eyes a litte moreJust look, study and begin to see.
If you know the rules about Action/Reaction, about the Forks, you have a better sense what potentially could happen when price reaches the centerline, or breaks out of the U-MLH and comes back ("overshoot" - "back to centerline" in pink).
Follow each bar, from left to right...slowly...think about what's going on bevor going to the next bar.
Feel how markets swing, up and down and up and down...breathe in, breath out...contraction, release.
As above so below
Drop me a message if you like it, have comments or want to learn more about the Forks.
P!
30 Year Treasury REVERSE $ZB_F $TLT $ZB1! #bonds #futures #forexWe are getting the beginnings of our Harmonic Breakout to upside this AM. Targets Shown on Chart.
ZB1! 30 Year Bond Daily $ZB_F $TLTDaily Harmonic View on Long Bond in 2nd Day of Yellen Testimony tending long here with stop below 149'30
TLT fill the gap?..in the 128 area? Against the generally accepted narrative of the Bond Bubble has Burst. What if a last hurrah as the optimism subsides and shelter is sought? Price action suggesting Yield down/Price up.
short everythingthe idea: the main asset classes are negatively correlated (stocks, bonds, dollar, gold) so shorting its all should be a dynamically hedged position. Shorting :
Dollar DXY x 2
Dow: US30 x 2
Gold: GC
Bonds: ZN
target: bottom of wedge, then yellow circle
TLT - Flipped back to centerline and now up again.After the hard selloff, TLT decided to flip back up the centerline.
I patiently waited for this pullback to initiate a RiskReversal, which is in play since last week.
Play it small and often and enhance your chance to fulfil the stats numbers.
P!
