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XAUUSD: Gold about to rallyWe have fulfilled my initial expected outcome (check related ideas) and broke below 'everyone's stop' like it has been customary in gold this year. I think we're in the prescence of a sideways/megaphone pattern style thing, where we have a false breakout before each turn. The arrows show the false breaks, and the green X's show the turns. I think we can expect to retest the election day range, or the Brexit day key level zone before going back down, so that's what I aim for. Risk here is a $26 to $80 dollar drop. The thing here is that we haven't managed to break above the long term downtrend mode, since we're back below it, and we have risk of a rate hike in December, so the rally that we get here, could be a pullback in a longer term downtrend. I'll be looking to add to my longs that I opened here (1186 entry) if we get progress and then sell, and sell short at the top, using longer term chart levels for my entry and stop. I've bought EURUSD at 1.0534, with stop at 1.0397 as well, since both are at potential spots for a bottom, after making a 'false break'. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
6
EURUSD: Small long active, adding if we get strengthI think we can get a significant retracement in the Euro until December at least, so I'm currently long from 1.0534, risking a drop to 1.0397, and will look to manage the position and add to it on strength. The key levels here illustrate where to monitor for a reaction on retests, and can give you an idea of what to expect. After today's close, if we get a smaller range day, we could look to add to longs on strength, or alternatively, wait for 3 daily bars to confirm the bearish momentum has faded. I'll be monitoring it and updating this chart once I add to longs. Once the rally is done, I think we will be able to resume the long positions in the dollar, against the SEK and JPY in particular, but possibly against the Euro as well. We'll have to wait and see, but for now, my preferred shorts are SEK and JPY, once viable. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Weekly uptrend updateI highlighted the weekly support buy zones we have had in the past, as well as the curretly active one. The 8h setup I pointed at might not work with a tight stop, but it's still good to hold longs from 4950-5100 overall. Just make sure your risk, if adding new positions is 1-2% max, if price were to go against you and hit 4805.26. It really shouldn't, to conserve the uptrend speed and achieve 5710.74 on time. If we don't hit this level before December 12th, then Bitcoin might endure a correction which could be a pullback, or simply lack of activity and a slow sideways drift again, before more upside is attainable. Fundamentals would have to get in line, but for now, technicals give us comfort in long positions. Watch the linear regression channel support, watch the moving average on chart, we shouldn't see a close below them, and we should hit the target we have here on time. Also, watch the speed line on chart, which indicates the minimum required pace the uptrend has to keep to remain valid, all of these tools tell us when to expect a correction. The only thing is that which we can't know in advance what the price behavior will be after it starts, so, we'll have to react and not predict too far in the future. Long term target remains above 7000, based on weekly signals, and there's a longer term timeframe signal pointing way higher as well, so, there's no need to fear long trades, as long as we time the entry correctly, they will reward us handsomely. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. Disclosure: I hold long positions with no leverage, nor stop losses, that equate to 55% of my account value currently, all in profit, except for the last entry at break even or minor loss. I have been buying and selling dips, to book profits and allow me to keep risk free holds.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
GBPUSD: Time at mode uptrend might give us a great short soonGBPUSD has an interesting chart here, with very clear resistance levels and a stop loss level for short trades. We will be looking to short the top of the current uptrend, to rejoin the long term decline in the Pound. I think the uptrend is doomed from the get go, being a pullback in a downtrend, so, I will look to fade the rally when safe. The chart shows a potential signal that could take price to the vicinity of 1.2830, but, there is a massive supply level at 1.2767 that could make the uptrend fail. Look for shorts above 1.2767 ideally, you can take a long term position and spread the selling over multiple days, using the stop on chart. If the analysis is correct, we'll get more confirmation for a precise technical short entry soon, for now, wait for updates here, and watch it. Going long isn't reccomended, although this will probably rally while EURUSD retraces. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
4
NZDUSD: Sell the top of the rallyNZDUSD has an interesting setup here. RgMov has now changed direction showing the trend is potentially down, so it might be safer to sell it at the top of the ongoing correction, to rejoin the recently started downtrend. This makes me think gold and the Euro will behave similarly, which is what I had originally thought. The dollar long term uptrend might have resumed before our eyes, and we're seeing the first correction in daily scale, so don't miss it! I'll be looking to short against a key level, once price action favors it, so, for the time being I'm standing aside and watching. We have enough trades to go long during the dollar correction. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: 8h RgMov trade setupThe 8h chart shows a nice buy opportunity on a break of the last bar's high after the close. The RgMov indicator shows the trend is up, so buying pullbacks is always a good idea. I'm adding a 25% position here, and adding 25% more on a break of this bar's high, targetting a retest of the 5350+- zone. There's also a chance that we break the highs, triggering a short squeeze rally, after forced liquidation of the short sellers. I labeled previous buy setups like this one on chart, to give you an idea of the effectiveness of the method in this timeframe. If you're interested in learning more about how I trade, don't hesitate and send me a pm for more information. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
4
EURUSD: Wait for Draghi's speech and maybe for the daily closeWe should be seeing a turn in the Euro very soon. I'm already long with a wider stop and looking to add to longs. I advise caution today, the market is awaiting Draghi later today. We're overbought in 4h, and RgMov shows bearish sentiment in this timeframe (contrary to daily and weekly bullishness), so a new low could trigger selling in the short term. What I'd like to see would be new lows tripping 'All stops known to man' after the news and a quick reversal, closing the day near the highs. This would give the perfect excuse to enter longs on a new daily high after today's close, and tightening my initial position's stop, reaching a full position, long the Euro. If not, another positive outcome would be a rapid rally causing today's price range from the open to be bigger than Friday's true range, giving us an excuse to buy dips and/or new highs above the previous 3 days' range. Let's keep our eyes on this now. Right now, there's a bullish signal in the daily with new highs, but the news are a huge risk, if we were to trade with tighter stop losses. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
SPY: Update - Bottom was inHow are people still bearish on SPY? I'm glad I didn't close my equity longs, although I did have a stop out at break even on my SPX position overnight. The way SPX bottomed against the BIG$ support level obtained from VIX showed us there was going to be a rally once again. The reaction to Trump's increasing odds, and finally victory in the elections was absolutely extreme, 'despair' like my mentor, Tim West described it in his yearly forecast chart. This sentiment extreme sets the stage for a rally, and we already had such rally. Now, if this keeps going there's a chance that it confirms my 2-month timeframe uptrend signal, with a target at 249. The signal was confirmed by the end of October, and the retest of support simply gave a low risk buy opportunity which we seized. We'll be examining this closely in the near future. Hopefully Trump manages to help the economy pick up steam with his plans, and doesn't implement his ridiculous ideas like the 'Mexican wall' to name a few. Positives are many, unknowns too, but I believe the market is full of opportunity right now, with blood on the streets. Good luck, to all. Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:SPYLong
by IvanLabrie
4
UCO: We bought yesterday's closeThis is potentially a very good trade, for the time being, we can expect it to retest the top of the range. If you didn't buy with me and my clients yesterday at the close, you can buy here, risking a new low under the recent lowest low. Target is at least a retest of the previous rally's top, but it could evolve into resuming the longer term 'Time at mode' uptrend signal in the oil chart. In the case of $UCO, it could rally to 21.19. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:UCOLong
by IvanLabrie
2
XAUUSD: The bottom in gold is nearWe might get some more downside next week, but I think we'll see a sizeable bottom in gold very soon. Only a matter of days. If you want to go long, wait for prices under 1200, I think this would be enough to wipe out all bulls and hit a sentiment extreme, causing a bottom. I expect commercial hedgers to go flat, or net long again when this happens as well. That would be a great confirmation for the long. Risk can be a drop under 1117.87 in the monthly, but we can get tighter stops from daily charts once we have the right price action to enter. Good luck, be careful, I'd rather not buy gold yet. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: News key level updateWe have a new key level, courtesy of Bitmain's CEO, who decided to tweet about his support and potential funding of Bitcoin Unlimited, an alternative to Bitcoin Core development, which could cause a situation where there are multiple Bitcoin block chains, dividing the community. Naturally, this scared some bulls off, and we had a selloff, but I think it's just manipulation, like most news from China turn out to be. Probably colluded with some other groups, like OkCoin, or other exchanges (like BitFinex), they caused margin traders positions to be liquidated, due to the amplitude of the move during low liquidity periods. I'm long, as depicted in my BTC publications, and used this chance to add to my position, increasing it from 30% to 80% account. I'll trim once we have a sizeable rally, and hold only my core 30% position until we hit my long term targets. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
8
XAUUSD: 2-month downtrend analysisThe 2-month bars in gold show a very clear downtrend, and its dynamics. The 'Time at mode' technique shows us that bears drove the price down, after a distribution period of 16 months at the top, followed by a very sharp decline, which met the prognosticated target quickly, before stalling for another 18 months. The next decline wasn't as sharp, and we noticed that when the forecasted downtrend duration had ended, a massive rally started in gold. This happened to coincide with a spike in VIX, which as Tim West points out in his Silver charts, is a bullish signal for a bottom in metals. These two signals confirmed we had a bottom in place and higher prices could be expected from there onwards. The range highlighted in orange, created a secondary downtrend signal, while the second one in red was active, which had a smaller target range than the previous one. This points out to a potential terminal wedge ending here, an Elliott Wave formation indicating a bottom. Additionally, the 9 bar decline in red, which expired right at the bottom, failed to reach its target, so, it forecasted a rally back to the mode, the most frequent price range in the distribution period leading to the decline, which already happened. Now that these signals panned out, we are left with an unclear outcome, nothing can be gleaned from this timeframe, other than looking at the price ranges on the advance, which have become smaller, failing to confirm the momentum of the first big range bar at the bottom. To break the resistance zone between 1270 and 1322, price will have to absorb considerable supply from long term sellers, and to do that, it needs time, so my forecast here is for gold to remain sideways, possibly until hitting the uptrend or downtrend speed lines in red. We can look to play this range, following the smaller timeframe signals, like the one shared by Tim West recently, check it out in related ideas. Just don't get overexcited, expecting gold to go to 1500, cause it probably won't for at least a couple more months or more. 2 more months with prices not going under the lowest low here, would confirm the trend is now up too, but December's close would have to sit above 1263.37. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
USDARS: Next up leg startingI think it's fairly certain to see more upside in USDARS right away. If you own pesos and live in Argentina,it's wise to sell them for silver/gold/dollars periodically. Now is a good time. I reccomend splitting with a bigger weight on USD bills, due to gold and silver volatility. Right now, the trade favors dollar strength, so you'd increase your dollar holdings next. You can rebalance this portfolio periodically, or even go back to pesos, and use term deposits to earn interest while the Peso strengthtens (usually down legs last a 1-3 months). Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
BTCCNY: Update - Weekly trend intactBTCCNY is breaking above the recent key resistance generated by the news related to Chinese capital controls. It seems that the news were discarded as a rumor, and now investors have absorbed the selling, and are ready to bid prices higher. I'm holding a 30% long position now, since I doubled at 4918 and tightened my stop loss to 4870. My average entry is lower, so I'm holding a risk free trade, with a profit if stopped out. Target is 6555 at least, the retest of the Black Market Reloaded closing key level, or the weekly 'Time at mode' target at 7047.01. This could evolve into a longer term bimonthly uptrend as well, which is currently active, and implying way higher prices, so I will simply hold my position for as long as possible, only closing half of it at my weekly target zone, and trading around the core 15% long term long position from here onwards. You can see how the key levels and the 'Time at mode' analysis have been useful in trading this market, and predicting the turns, where to enter, where to add, where to place stops, etc. Review my previous publications for more information. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
11
EURUSD: Monitoring the declineEURUSD didn't hold the ECB key level support, and closed below it. If today's bar plots a daily HIGH above the 1.7490 mark on close, we might still have a chance to enter longs tomorrow, on a break of today's high, and stop under today's low. Right now, I'd reccomend waiting one session, and monitoring the activity as I describe. This chart depicts the ECB key levels, in light blue, solid lines, for the 2015 levels, and purple for 2016 levels. Thinner lines, are less significant reactions, which have lower probability of affecting price action. The dashed lines show the Brexit, Jackson Hole and US presidential election key levels, which coincide with the biggest VIX spikes this year. There is a weekly range expansion decline, so we have to remain vigilant. If price doesn't hit 1.05454 before December 5th, we have bigger odds of a reversal to the upside. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie