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EURNZD: Good buy on strengthI'd reccomend against using stop losses here, you may go long on strength after the close. Risk is $3000 per standard lot if entering here. We can aim for a retest of the election highs at least.Risk 0.5-1% buying over a few days. Seeing a new low here isn't good but it might take a while to get going, so I'm open to that happening. The price action is a bit more erratic between December and February in FX, so I'll be trading smaller positions with wide stops or no stop, entering gradually as prices confirm the analysis, not all at once. I'd reccomend this to people to reduce risk. Add to the trades that start to work, else, you have small risk at first. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
Italian referendum - News breakdownIn this chart I show you the key events and times of occurrence ahead of the news today. The US futures market will probably open with a gap due to opening after the polls come out, but there will be plenty of time to await the official results, so, the market might remain volatile and directionless before the results are out. I'd reccomend you keep risk small if trading into this event, either keeping positions small, or using very wide stops, since any gap through your stop could prove to be disastrous if levered, like has happened in the past, too many times this year...(think GBP flash crash, 'The Trumpening', Brexit...). I think we'll see a risk off rally, but I'm not entirely sure US equities will be impacted negatively (despite what many people think). Good luck today, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSD
by IvanLabrie
18
ETHEUR: Go long at marketI think ETH has fallen enough here. The euro value of it will turn around, since it has hit the levels associated with the Bitfinex hack. If it doesn't go to 5.96710 within the next 2 months, we could see a monthly scale rally in it, probably due to a change in fundamentals. It's good to see buyers step in here, so, it only takes an increase in activity, and some fundamental news to stage a rally. It's oversold enough, potentially. If you want to buy, you can risk a drop to 5.9671 and enter a 0.5-1% risk long here. Weekly charts show an uptrend, so on any new weekly high, we could see a rally take off. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
XAUUSD: UpdateI think Gold has bottomed here, so, after today's close, we can buy a 0.5% risk position, with stop loss 1 tick under today's low. To be safe, don't place the stop, but watch it. Position size should be based on this, or if conservative, daily volatility. So, two options: Buy a new daily high, after today's daily close, Risk 0.5% if price moves under today's low. Buy a 0.5% risk position, risking a 58 dollar drop from here. Add another position with the same size tomorrow. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
4
SPX: Potential pullback starting, let's watch 2150I think we'll see a retracement next, but I'm not sure about calling for a downtrend in the longer term here. Although fundamentals favor a rally overall, uncertainty over many global events, and proximity to the end of the year, might trigger profit taking, which would drive SPX lower, at least to 2170. If this level doesn't hold, we might test the linear regression channel support, and possibly lower levels, but it's hard to say before hand. It's safer to simply focus on reacting to the key levels and price action in the present. If we don't drop under the election's open, or wost, under the election's daily low, I wouldn't worry too much, but for now, I remain vigilant. I'm shorting a few stocks, booking profits in some longs, and trading the risk off leg using FX and commodities mostly. Shorting SPX is valid, to a certain extent, but there are better vehicles to trade this move. Good luck, and watch the key levels on chart to pick the bottom here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Short
by IvanLabrie
10
USOIL: Intraday viewUSOIL has rallied after the dip that started last Friday bottomed against support. Like I explained in my futures chart, shorts could get trapped if price were to move above the level I labeled in it, and, moving above Friday's close, would warrant a long trade too. The long trade idea is working, and now we're faced with a few possibilities going into the OPEC meeting. Two things can happen: If price doesn't gain momentum and break above 48 within the next 3 hours, we could see it drop back to support at 46 give or take. This would warrant a buy as well, risking a new daily low perhaps. On the other hand, if price moves above 48 soon, and stays there on close, then we can probably get a breakout trade, a 'Time at mode' signal in the daily timeframe, taking off after the OPEC meeting is out of the way (this is probable, but I'd rather buy more on dips). If you're flat, wait for a dip to enter against 46 give or take, or, wait for the breakout trade signal...or short $USDCAD at market with a half position, and stops above at least 1.35125 (or higher) and be willing to add after today's close, if we get a retracement over 1.3450 with the same stop. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
20
AUDUSD: Monthly range expansions show sellers get trapped higherLooking at monthly ranges, we see that months with sharp selloffs, that surpass the previous true range, as measured from the open to the low, have been causing sellers to get trapped at increasingly higher prices. This is bullish and shows accumulation, and shakeouts taking place. The monthly chart shows a mode near the highs, and now we're testing support at the bottom of the monthly range, so we have a great opportunity on the long side, after the market got extremely one sided. Sellers might get trapped here again, this time higher than the previous range expansion months, which is bullish overall. Daily and weekly RgMov readings are bullish, and we have massive lag relative to copper and iron ore, which eventually will play out, so I remain bullish. The entry to add to longs is described in my 4h chart, see related ideas for more information. Keep these levels in mind, once above, they act as support on a retest. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
3
TSLA: Correction potentially overI'm long TSLA from here, risk is $19.83 per share. I expect a short squeeze rally to come after the merger news come out. If price drops lower, I'd look to buy near $150, but I doubt it'll happen. Long term, buying in this wide range, between 150 and 200 is possibly a great trade. Technically wise, price appears to have formed a falling wedge, maybe the last wave of a correction before more upside. If that's the case we'll see a very rapid rally back to the $270 mark in 1/4 of the time it took to fall down from it. Additionally, we're up for the day here after testing a low volume support level from the weekly, so we have a low risk long opportunity in play. Refer to Tim West's TSLA Elliott Wave count for more information. (keep in mind this is my interpretation of the chart. If you have any doubts about the wave count, contact Tim. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
35
BTCCNY: Daily viewBTCCNY has a longer term uptrend, but here I'm looking at the daily linear regression channels we can draw on each swing. If you extend the lines, after a high pivot happens, you can see where price can bounce, to maintain the uptrend progress. The pink arrows show this, and the channel changes with any high pivot that is broken on retest. I think we have a chance to get action like the green pathway implies, but I'm open to a larger consolidation or even a pullback lower, so I'll react to whatever happens next. For the time being I know where to place my stop if I get a buy agains the support zone between 4953 and 5102: 4805.26. This is a weekly level though, and we also need to wait for one more week to determine if the uptrend speed is sufficient to keep this pace, else we'll see a correction for some time. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
19
USOIL: Hold longs!USOIL is tracing a daily uptrend, and broke above the recent downtrend's linear regression channel. If we hold the current uptrend pace, we can expect the top key level resistances to be hit in a day or two. I'd assume we'll stall while holding support above the monthly downtrend mode in blue, so, I'll be monitoring the uptrend progress to add to it if viable, and to time our exit. I think it's possible we get an OPEC production cut agreement, which could squeeze most shorts, who don't believe it is possible, and the overall bearish retail traders. Trump could play out as a wild card here as well, so it's worth it to keep some long exposure to energy, oil and gas in particular. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19