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XAUUSD: Gold broke the weekly downtrend speed line!Gold is acting quite bullish in the daily and weekly now, and we have different signals in higher timeframes as well. Potential upside is significant, but we need to see a few things happen next. The most immediate one is breaking above the 1241.65 resistance, and holding there. After we do that, we'd need to go up to 1289.80 and test that level, break it and hold above it. That could initiate a massive uptrend, with upside over 1800 in the long term. That could in turn, evolve into a continuation of the long term advance in gold, which would have massive upside in the cards for us. I'm holding speculative longs with a tight stop, and looking to get confirmation of higher timeframe signals. I'm long miners, CFDs and CEF. If and when we confirm the long term rally, we could be well positioned. But we'll also be ready and aware of what to look out for, to rule out the rally, and turn bearish on gold if needed. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
6
CHFUSD: Swiss Franc going sideways from hereIn this chart I analyze the recent uptrend in the Franc. It appears to have ran into a wall, where the election day's low and the Brexit low sit, as well as a massive volume level, which will take time to break. I'd rather be flat here, and wait, we can look to buy dips in this or the Euro, or Gold or Silver probably meanwhile. This can serve as a hedge against our long positions in equities. I still see opportunity on the long side, not so much in the index, but in undervalued securities. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
XAGUSD: Silver offers a buy on dipsWe have a potential long entry if Silver drops back under 17 after the market opens. A tight stop could be 16.765, and you could also use 16.444 if more conservative. The setup calls for upside to 17.63, or even up to 18.051. Keep risk under 1%, and give it a couple days from entry. The daily chart triggered an uptrend but I don't know for sure if it won't chop instead of trending again, so, don't risk too big on this trade. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
GBPUSD: Potentially a very stupid long trade...I feel very bad about this trade, so it will probably work. Go long here, risk a drop to 1.2418, or if you want, a wider stop based on 3 times the average true range in the daily timeframe. Upside is significant, if the weekly downtrend failure target pans out. I'd look like a fool, if I follow my fundamental and technical asessment, and general 'gut feeling' about the dollar, and the dollar slumps, which is what is doing. Taking a self-contrarian stance seems like a good idea here. I'll reasess as we move forward, for now, I think the long side is safer, against all logic, but, since equities might end up correcting here, albeit briefly, this thesis becomes a bit less deranged to me. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
BTCCNY: Correction happened, as expectedI graphed the average correction here, average time duration and average price range. I expect BTC to bottom, after the smart money got rid of panic buyers and converted bears who might have given up and flipped long after making new all time highs and accelerating. This played out just as I expected it, so, if you reduced your exposure to 15-20% before it, feel free to thank me, or even sign up for my services. On the fundamental side, we have a new key level here after today's close, I'll post it in comments. There were news of the PBOC implementing capital controls, and a headline today, from Bitquant's founder, who said capital fleeing China isn't really using BTC, which actually is bullish in the long term, if the reason of BTC going up isn't chinese people shuffling money out of China, since it means there's something else driving the growth, something more productive perhaps, like mass adoption, and bullish sentiment from larger investors. We're looking to establish a large position here again, and we'll do it gradually, as we get more and more confirmation that the correction is done, and that it isn't the start of a longer term decline, which I think it isn't. Seeing oversold readings in the daily is a nice boost to our confidence, and having a nice discount from the top, an interesting opportunity to add back to our long. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
50
ETHBTC: Ethereum acting strongEthereum is holding above the recent uptrend's mode, or 'accumulation level'. Despite the downside acceleration of the past few days, and rising volume, sellers are trapped again, and price is back above resistance. If it holds here, and accelerates out of this level, we'll get a second rapid uptrend leg. It could happen now, which it'd have to happen by tomorrow, or it can take a couple weeks, in which case the red bars' scenario would probably pan out. ETHBTC has a lot more room to the upside, unlike ETHEUR or ETHUSD, which demand sideways action for 2-3 months, so, this makes me think probably ETH will continually outperform BTC's advances, while both grind sideways/up. I don't think BTC will drop anymore. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDCNH: Update - Time at mode uptrend signalIf this signal works, we'll have a great rally into resistance, which could lead to a top, and a sideways consolidation for some time in the 6.75-7 range. I think this would align with other markets showing similar mixed signals regarding equities and the dollar, or with bonds and gold chopping around but finding buyers in the daily oversold lows. Bitcoin also paints a similar picture, potentially consolidating for a good 1-3 months in this zone where it is now. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
USDNOK: We've been buying for 4 days on close so far......but now it looks like the bottom's potentially in. We'd like to see a bar breaking above a previous day high (PDH), whilst not going any lower from here onwards. Price traced very clear 'Time at Mode' trends, up and down, and gave us precise indications of the direction, speed and targets for each move. Since we got to a strong weekly support, and almost hit the daily downtrend target, we could see the pair move back up to the downtrend mode at 8.5356, within 2 weeks or less. The downtrend still has until next Tuesday to expire, when it will flash an additional bullish signal, so, be careful if going long. Risking a new daily low is ok for now but I'd rather not use a tight stop yet. (I have no stop, but sized it to risk 0.5% if we drop by one average range from here give or take. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
DXY: Update - Potential bottom of the retracementDXY seems to have bottomed after correcting the post-election uptrend for some time. The 'Time at mode' signals indicate we have a bottom here, and since the top down analysis suggests we will see a massive rally in the dollar, I'm willing to maintain a long bias for the longer term. I'm long $USDNOK, $USDSEK, $USDMXN and short $GBPUSD for now, whilst flat the Euro. I might take short term longs in that pair from time to time, so I leave it for speculative shorter term setups only. I'm also long gold and miners, as a hedge for my equities and forex portfolio. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
USDMXN: Trump talked the pair down, but for how long?I'm bullish on this pair, and the dollar overall, in the longer term, but right now, we're seeing a correction in this trend. Within the next 2-3 days we can get a signal to reenter longs in this pair, so keep an eye on it. Support below is significantly strong, so it wouldn't surprise me that we bottom very soon, and see a sharp continuation of the initial 'Trump induced' uptrend in this pair. The situation in Mexico is deteriorating, and with oil potentially declining, among other factors, it would be logical to see more weakness soon. Keep an eye on it, we'll pick it up after the bottom's confirmed, it won't take long with some luck, else we'll have to rethink our FX strategy and fundamental and technical bias. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
GM: Daily viewGM is an excellent company to own for the long term. That being said, outside of a core long term position in it (something like 10% is perfectly fine), we can also trade and profit from volatility, both on the long side (adding trades with trailing stops, and adding to winners) and on the short side (selling calls against our long term longs to profit from corrections). In this case, after today's news, we see that the daily has flashed a 'Time at mode' uptrend signal with a target at 39.57 that has to be hit before January 31st. Since this uptrend's time duration expires just before earnings, it might be wise to reduce your exposure to GM approaching the target, and date, or to at least hedge your downside to protect profits by selling calls. In the case of earnings sending prices way higher, this would ruin the upside, so, the alternative is to start trailing stops periodically (at least on your non-core-long term positions) to reduce risk. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:GMLong
by IvanLabrie
1
EURUSD: Tight stop loss longEURUSD has an interesting signal in the short term. The chart points to more upside here, but the most interesting thing is that the stop loss for this long trade is very tight. Also, we have a record position in speculator shorts in treasuries plus a massive selloff courtesy of China, which would correlate with today's dip in the Euro (on the back of Yellen's remarks as well). With these things in mind, there're big expectations going into Trump's inauguration on Friday, and the downtrend mode resistance has been breached in the daily and weekly charts here, so, upside is possible. I don't discard a selloff in the Pound, so I'd keep that short as my backup plan, but I'm taking this long here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
9
ETHEUR: Long term viewETHEUR is acting very strong but has faced a logical level to top at for now. What I'm interested in seeing is how the consolidation develops, and wether we go back down to 7.80 or lower after the daily 'Time at mode' uptrend signal forecasted time duration ends. If we don't, and we hold up in this zone, we could be coiling, forming an accumulation base, before moving higher, above the long term uptrend 'mode', which can take give or take 3 months. Keep an eye on the daily downtrend 'speed-line'. Currently, we have already broken above the linear regression channel top, and hit the daily 'Time at mode' uptrend signal's targets #1 and #2, so, we need to be patient. I consider it viable for ETH to break higher and resume the long term uptrend, and I have a very good entry on average at the 7.850 mark, so I'll be extremely patient and monitor how the signals develop in the short and intermediate trend, to determine if our long term idea has wings. Currently holding a 20% account position. Good luck, don't use leverage, and be patient. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
BTCCNY: Anatomy of a correctionI think we have completed the correction in Bitcoin here, with the recent fundamental events potentially serving as catalysts for continuation of the long term advance here. With lower volatility, manipulation, and perceived risks for investors seeking to get involved with Bitcoin, to a more favorable prospect for adoption, there will probably be higher prices and long term growth in this market. It's interesting to note each time we get a major correction, specially during an uptrend, we can observe this shakeout pattern, where sellers get trapped after selling near the lows, after the market rapidly pulls back above the mid point of the range expansion bar's range. I have labeled these levels on both monthly and some recent daily range expansion bars. I'm long as you know, and recently added positions during this correction. At the moment, my crypto account is 80% BTC and 20% ETH, and I'm looking to capture the upside in both throughout the year. I might reduce some exposure to BTC though, depending on how prices evolve from here onward. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
11
DXY: Retracement possibly over, or in a sideways patternDownside is minimal, so I'll start buying back into my dollar positions gradually here. After today's close, we can start buying into new daily highs, with a stop under yesterday's low. It might fail, but eventually this approach will lead to an excellent trade. Alternatively to risking 0.5% each time and getting stopped until it goes, you could buy a wider stop position, gradually over a week. Risk in that case would be a $2.40 drop. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
6
USDCNH: PBOC gave us a nice discount in BTC and USDCNHFollowing the PBOC's manipulation and the massive drop for two days, price is starting to slow down. I think we will see a bottom here shortly. If we don't hit 6.7696 before Monday's close, we can anticipate a turn here. After the week closes, we'll get more confirmation of the risks in BTC and USDCNH. It could take as long as 3 weeks to confirm upside is viable again, so let's keep close watch of this and don't miss the discount to enter the long side again. I'll update this one as needed. As a sidenote, it's interesting to see volatility increase in this pair, it tends to move very little compared to other FX dollar crosses. An increase in volatility and liquidity might make traders become interested in it, which would create more opportunities and potentially higher win rate signals with increased liquidity. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie