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JPN225: Nikkei potentially confirming a yearly uptrend soon...The Nikkei has been in an insane climb lately, and Japan as a whole, has been presenting more attractive valuations overall, than US or Europe stocks. Personally, I'm long EM equities, and some US ones, but, Japan does have a valid uptrend in the intermediate term, and soon in the long term as well. One concern you may have is mainly demographic, if you factor in the population aging, which could contribute to a slow down of growth over the long haul, as well as potential geopolitical risks, being so darn close to 'Rocket man'. Talking of Rocket man, did you know there was a Megaman prototype game called like that, before it was called Rockman X in Japan? I didn't either: www.youtube.com Funny stories aside, wether Trump is a Megaman fan or not, this is a significantly interesting chart to monitor for bullish setups in select japanese equities. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:JPN225Long
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCUSD: Titanic effort...long term guessLet's see how my understanding of price patterns and fundamental and postioning/sentiment related variables stack up against the facts: I think $Bitcoin will trend up strongly from here onwards, but the path is not yet fully clear. If prices move similarly to how I think they will between now and April, a new all time high will materialize, after confirming a long term trend signal, which would propel prices towards the vicinity of 290k by Sept-Oct 2021... The time duration of the rally would extend significantly, if this were to come to pass, since a new Time@Mode signal would be active, implying a strong continuation of the trend that started when price jumped up from 442 in 2016. For this to be an ideal price pattern, a move like this would need to occur (or, worse, a drop to 6449 or a bit lower, before rallying again, but I think this bearish scenario is negated now). Options and futures expirations are causing significant moves, and prices tend to be shaken up by the action of derivative traders more and more, so I included this variable into my long term analysis of $Bitcoin here. We're currently long from a very good average cost basis, and aiming to ride this move up for as long as it lasts. Let's see if we validate my scenario over time. Guesses like this are only good to test a hypothesis, the actual trading comes from day to day analysis of real time data and sentiment, as well as news, options and futures positioning and activity, and validation of expected post pattern behavior for each technical forecast as we move forward. The end result is that ideally we are positioned to exploit bouts of volatility, to the upside or downside as they come, and end up surpassing simply buying and holding the instrument at hand. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
12
XOM: Long oil stocks now...I think we have many interesting companies that show big accumulation bases that can rally nicely with oil during and after January 2020. $XOM is one of them, risk is a $3 drop from here, to make it to the target on chart at least, but could be twice as big of a rally in this timeframe too. Over time, there's a chance of a monthly basing pattern to confirm a trend, which would align with what I see in $USOIL. Big speculative trends are about to get in motion during 2020, I think many will be related to $USOIL rallying, like solar names, $TSLA and other EV related stocks (battery tech and materials, etc) and Emerging market stocks like $ARGT, $EEM, $EWZ, Singapore, Vietnam, and individual names in energy with solid charts and valuations. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:XOMLong
by IvanLabrie
XAGUSD: Weekly downtrend might fail...I think the daily based decently here, and judging by Friday's bar, a trend might be about to gain traction. Silver is likely a good buy from here onwards, should be a good addition to your portfolio, to hedge equities risk, and/or to profit in a speculative FX/Futures account. There will be many trend trading opportunities in precious metals going forward, most likely showing a bigger edge on the long side when viable. IF prices don't go any lower, the weekly trend will become a fail by Dec 23rd, in which case, we could expect a rally back over recent highs at the very least. The situation in Hong Kong might turn investors toward risk off assets here, which might end up benefitting Bitcoin as well. $USDCNH seems to have recovered, and might move higher, so, $XAUCNY will likely trend up as well. I worry that the recent trade deal related optimism might end badly, at least in the short to intermediate term...For this reason I have sold my risk on positions and bought Gold on Friday, and will be looking to buy Silver at the open as well. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
$INTC: Explosion pattern signal#INTC flashed a big trend signal in the daily timeframe here, explosive upside potential. Risk is $1 per share roughly (stop at 57.75) to make up to $6.06 per share in 11 days. With China changing their stance on IP theft over the weekend, a big trend in equities can fire here. Trump more likely to get to a trade deal resolution soon (or that is what market participants anticipate, judging by price action). On the flipside, valuation for $INTC is quite good here, and I would favor trading on the long side on the way up, for as long as $SPX keeps trending up. (there's a long term bullish forecast that recently was confirmed, implying the stock market will advance intensely in the coming months, until 2021 pretty much, see related ideas for the post I made anticipating this a while back). If you want to get real time alerts to join all my trades, be sure to check out my FB page, it's in the signature field below. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by IvanLabrie
XAUUSD: Correction might be over...On Friday I bought back into #Gold positions after a long time without having any exposure to the precious metal. Me and my clients entered here: 'Let's buy an #XAUUSD long position here, stop loss @ 1417', this tweet was sent when price was 1454.58, 10:48am UTC-3 at the time. twitter.com If I'm not mistaken the bimonthly trend signal active in $XAUUSD might still be able to propel prices higher from here. I may add some exposure on retrace on Monday, there's a daily signal that might justify adding. I added some more when the 4H timeframe flashed a short term trend signal as well, which happened near 1460 during Friday. If you want to receive timely alerts, feel free to contact me to try my signals service for one month at no cost. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
Crypto market likely bottomed hereI'm thinking we reached the bottom of the correction in both $BTCUSD and $ETHUSD. It's interesting to note that $Ethereum is acting very strong, with the $ETHXBT ratio moving up on the day, as $ETHUSD moves up faster than $BTCUSD today, not the norm for a long time. My clients and me are long from the very bottom, and if this was not a bottom yet, downside risk is very small. I expect a rally towards 7400 at least, before going sideways until January, or, perhaps a larger rally towards 8462 or 9112, to then consolidate there for a couple months... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
5
BTCUSD: Bakkt volume increasing and a failed short signal...The correction in #BTCUSD is likely over, the last short signal I had was stopped out at 8026, so we had to rush to cover and flip long immediately. Despite this setback, the confirmation of that signal failing implies a 1 month move towards 10k, and the odds of the long term trend that kicked off when we broke 6600 being active increased. If we move as planned, and hit 10k, and then move sideways until prices launch up over 11-12k, we will most likely be on our way towards 18-35k in the mid term... If this happens, then the upside can exceed 40-50k easily, reaching a peak as high as 240 to 360k over time, by late 2020. Bakkt is seeing an increasingly strong volume trend, which was what I wanted to see for a bottom to materialize. The fall was caused by CME short sellers most likely, who shorted in the face of low volumes after Bakkt launch -which seemed to indicate that the expected institutional demand was a hoax, and never happened, making bullish aspirations a mistake...-. Clearly, CME traders profited from this move, but there is now evidence that their initial conjecture was erroneous, which we will know over time, as Bakkt volumes increase more and more as a sign of instutional demand, seeking secure real #BTC ownership. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2
USOIL: Longs are viable..We just need to find a good entry in the daily chart, this might be a good trend to ride going into 2021. Constructive action overall, and also a net positive for $TSLA shares, solar emerging markets and others...not good for airlines though. If this uptrend pans out, it'll end up hurting the economy badly once the effect is felt on earnings. Tim West recently explained this very well (once again) in his publication. See related ideas. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
13
Indian stock market acting strong...The indian stock market index is at the brink of breaking out massively here, in this currency adjusted chart. If it manages to move over this trendline resistance it can confirm a quarterly timeframe trend pointing to a large advance in the coming 12 quarters, as shown on chart. Emerging market stocks become interesting with potential weakness in the dollar going forward, and rising oil prices. The big slump in energy prices certainly helps equities going forward, with a delated effect, as explained by @timwest in his publications, since transportation and energy are one of the key inputs of the economy. I'd keep an eye on it and look for good valuation indian companies, if there's a breakout in this chart. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOE:INDALong
by IvanLabrie
USDCAD: NFP price action determines key levelsEveryone involved in FX trading has their eyes peeled on price charts and fundamental data that comes out every first Friday of each month, when Non-Farm Payrolls data is made public for the month before. This creates volatility during the day, and also a very significant price level where the market reacts, either being attracted to or rejected from the level. I've plotted these key levels on chart, with a vertical line showing the date of the NFP report. You can clearly see that when the market deviates far enough from the last key level, it will be drawn back to it over time...and that when retesting a level after moving away from it for a while, it will react when hitting it most of the time, helping us map how far and in which direction prices can move. Right now the last short term signal in $USDCAD failed, hitting my stop loss at break even after buying the breakout at 1.31634, and briefly seeing some profit following the NFP data. The dollar is acting weak accross the board which is an anomaly, and oil regaining strength. We should focus on currencies to determine if we need to hedge our dollar exposure in the equities portfolio, since although earnings in foreign currencies would increase if the dollar devaluates it could hurt stocks' performance even during a rally. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
1
TSLA: Earnings report was incredibly good...Cost cutting from Shanghai gigafactory in the order of 65%, 50% cost reduction for model Y, EPS beat, free cash flow positive and high free cash flow yield, and an increase in margins from leasing and FS and auto pilot software service income might help $TSLA going forward. Despite the amazingly positive earnings report, the media remained negative and bearish as sh#te, which was quite surprising. I smell the short squeeze of the century in the making here. The quarterly timeframe now flashed a new long term trend, targets are on chart, and are valid unless $TSLA were to erase this quarter's advance...Odds of that are slim, to none. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
USDCAD: Bottoming here it seems...I do like this chart a lot, weekly is oversold and sitting at a long term support level from the quarterly chart. A rebound in $USDCAD in the order of 500 pips higher is possible. The seek for yield in a world with low or even negative rates makes this a fundamentally sound idea as well. Recently some racism related scandals came to light surrounding politicians of most parties in Canada, but the real reason for $CAD weakening is possibly related to oil losing relevance as we gradually transition to renewable energy sources, in the very long term. Probably safe to buy oversold dips going forward. You could probably borrow $CAD to long $TSLA... Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
A primer on Key Earnings SupportIn this chart I'm illustrating a few trading setups that took place in $MCD following each earnings report for a year. The indicators you see in the chart are 'Average True Range' and 'Earnings Price Support' from @timwest's 'Key Hidden Levels' indicator pack. Every time a company reports earnings, analysts, investors, portfolio managers, traders, you name it...are paying close attention on the data that comes out, and the prices that the stock is trading for at all times, this normally starts one or several days before the report, and lasts for a day or a couple days after the report. The indicator my mentor devised plots a technical level that helps us map how far prices can move, and where to seek low risk trading opportunities on subsequent retests of past reports' levels. I use the ATR indicator to define the size of the stop losses that I use, which in turns helps me know how many shares to buy or sell when trading with this tool. To use this you need a method to determine the main trend direction, which can be fundamental or technical, or a combination of both. Time@Mode is the one @timwest created, and the one I use, which together with the proprietary indicators from the 'Key Hidden Levels' suite helps me find low risk trades that have a very good batting average. Hope you found this post helpful, and if you did, check out my site here: www.fb.me I offer trading signals since 2015, covering all markets I trade, or focusing only on specific markets according to each client's needs. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:MCDEducation
by IvanLabrie
2
BTCUSD: 2D timeframe implies the weekly downtrend is not overThis is a follow-up idea to my weekly forecast. We're curently short with expectations of price bottoming near 6404 over time. The longer term chart signal is invalidated if prices break the 6400 support zone strongly, so once we do hit it, an immediate rebound would be good for bulls. Stop loss is 5269 for the long term long entry, once we cover shorts. If that stop is hit eventually, then Bitcoin is dead for sure... Bakkt volume is gradually starting to pick up, my guess is it will explode once we hit the bottom. This coupled with udpates from the Mt Gox situation and other events that might happen by the end of October make me think we will see a big move. I would like to see Bakkt volume surpass CME, for a clear indication of bulls outpacing bears (since CME is cash settled futures market, it favors short selling...in fact, the ex CTFC chair Giancarlo was quoted today, saying how the Trump administration weaponized the BTC futures market to kill the bubble back in 2017, which in fact is quite feasible). I like it when markets offer such a low risk entry, after an over extended decline, with sentiment eventually becoming one sided. Bulls seem confident in loss here, from what I gather, so sentiment confirms further downside. I'm short and hedged, looking to add to short on a small reaction, and ride it down towards the target on chart. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
$OSUR: Strong base after a 49% decline...I think this is once again an interesting name to buy back here...I recall @timwest pointing it out in early 2016, near the very bottom before a huge rally. We were bullish on it at the right time, and I think it's the right time once again. Fundamentals for the stock are a bit convoluted, with self diagnostic kits segment being highly competitive, and sales slumping, but the chart shows renewed interest in the stock from big buyers, given the accumulation base after a strong climb a month ago. I would assume some interesting news is about to come out, that might be the catalyst to push it up from this base... I'll be a buyer on signs of strength, if it breaks up from here soon. Keeping an eye on it. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:OSURLong
by IvanLabrie