ALGO: Likely to trend up from here...Similar setup in the weekly as other alts, $ALGO is looking quite good from a reward to risk standpoint.
Best of luck.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Timeatmode
$EEM: Interesting indicator, flashing caution by mid DecemberEmerging markets are flashing an interesting signal here, the weekly trend is up, and strongly, but will expire its current advance by the week ending on Dec 18. If we get some kind of unexpected issue before COVID vaccines are widely available, we could get some kind of correction here perhaps. Alternatively, we get a sideways consolidation and the markets keep rallying until vaccines roll out, by March give or take. This is what many charts seem to indicate. Definitely vital to monitor the action here and be ready to react once we get confirmation of one or the other.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTC Dominance: Trending up, if it breaks out...I can see a big rally in Bitcoin Market Cap Dominance here. We had a good signal which I pointed out in my previous chart, both the decline until the target, as well as the move up rebounding from it as it flashed a bottom signal. Alts are weak here, most look like trending down further vs $Bitcoin so I would urge investors to hold $Bitcoin rather than alts here. With some exceptions, overall, the altbtc ratio will likely trend lower still as a whole.
Next step is seeing how it acts when the cyan box above is retested in a couple weeks.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Crude Oil futures: Big upside possibleIt seems Crude oil is about to stage a massive rally lasting 17 weeks. I can see it going between $51 and $77, best case scenario.
Ideally it should hold over 37.14 here, to not disrupt the currently active bullish signals on chart. The weekly timeframe and monthly timeframe are a good way to frame the price action patterns that have clearly indicated what price behavior would do since the COVID crash, so they are quite reliable here. Both suggest big upside is possible, so definitely time to be long and pay attention.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
UNI: Good daily trend here...Uniswap has a good trend going here, last signal worked quickly, and now we have a potential continuation scenario. Let's see how this goes, I would give this very high probability of moving to the target on time if we break resistance here.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
$LINKUSD: Weekly uptrend active...Target is on chart, should climb as per the cyan arrow.
Similar to the chart setup in $ETHUSD.
Alts likely to play catch up here.
Signal allows a relatively tight stop, if you buy here or on retrace.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Pair trade: Long $TSLA, short $NIO$NIO is extremely over valued here, their competition in China is fierce, and $TSLA is leaps and bounds ahead of what they can achieve. Quarterly deliveries were like 1/10 of what $TSLA delivered in the last quarter that was announced...Sentiment is extreme and after complacency and euphoria we had a sharp down day at the top. There is a fund shorting it, and Ray Dalio bragging about his position in the stock recently. It's ripe for a short vs $TSLA, which is about to rally in the weekly timeframe. Valuation is wild compared to $TSLA, and competitive advantage goes to $TSLA here, considering all variables and the sales it has in China as well as their pricing for made in China cars.
You should short the same dollar amount of $NIO shares as you long $TSLA shares to get the pair trade going. I'd aim for a retest of 21.33 in this ratio at least, or could go into new highs as well. A 5-15% position would be fine here. Risk is roughly 3.06 to make 12.16, so a 3.97:1 reward to risk ratio.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
TAN: Huge topI think we are seeing a massive top in many stocks, solar looks specially vulnerable and it's one of the sectors I'm short of.
If it doesn't break over today's high going forward chances are it is dropping all the way back down...We would need a Biden victory, or a tax law change for this to come to pass though (oil dropping would also help, or subsidies going away).
Oil itself flashed a long term short signal this week, so I like this idea a lot here.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
#BTCUSD: Long term signal potentially valid...Question is: do we get a crash together with stocks near EOY? Will $BTCUSD decouple significantly and start outperforming tech stocks?
I suspect we might start to see inflation expectations increase substantially as economic activity resumes across the globe, people certainly are saturated with the whole COVID situation, and even scientists from the World Health Organization doubt the lock downs are a good solution for the pandemic, as economic damage caused by it vastly outsizes the human lives the pandemic itself would cost if restrictions were lifted.
I can smell a significant paradigm shift, if this takes place, where big ongoing trends would reverse, like the performance of value stocks compared to growth stocks, commodities vs stocks, interest rates trending down, and inflation being muted. An interesting trade to ride this juncture is to buy cryptocurrencies when viable. That said, this was an obvious trade many followed, but recent bouts of weakness likely shook most people out before the $PYPL news came out. I'm keen on seeing what the US launch brings forth, since the recent surge in prices has a lot to do with it (together with companies acquiring $Bitcoin for their treasuries as a hedge for inflation should it manifest itself).
Tech stocks are a huge part of the S&P500 index price movement, and since the index suggests it is entering a decade long sideways bear market akin to 2000 to 2009, I would be hesitant to blindly buy and hold overvalued stocks in this environment. We do need $Bitcoin to decouple from this if we expect a major trend, else it might be gridlocked in a constant sideways range for ages to come.
I'm open to substantial declines taking place after this strength fades, and specially if $PYPL's new feature disappoints like Bakkt futures initially did (Back then people were expecting Libra and Bakkt to generate tremendous interest and buying pressure in $Bitcoin, which never happened and led to a long and brutal sideways bear market until March 2020).
This scenario is invalidated if we go below $9132.96-9049.54, else expect a relatively steady uptrend over the long haul.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#BTCUSD: Bullish until the end of November...I suspect we are seeing a failure in the bearish signal we had recently, and yet another bullish trend in the weekly timeframe here. The M2 adjusted chart is highly interesting as it predicts we may see prices break the 2019 top briefly, I fear this might lead to an extreme in bullish sentiment a subsequent market crash towards lows not seen since the COVID bottom.
I remain cautiously bullish, and patiently waiting to short the top when it materializes as per this analysis.
Here's the spot chart for reference:
Note this is a bullish idea for now, potentially leading to a major market top by the time it peaks as anticipated.
The commitment of traders report shows that CME short sellers keep increasing their short position, and asset managers buying (over record levels). At some point short sellers are likely to win, as has been the case so far.
Disclaimer: We're long for the time being.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
SPX: Rally until Nov 20...then brace yourselvesLooks like we have a confirmed uptrend signal here, which is what I expected to happen since the market created a big support level indicating the smart money absorbed the last crash.
It's interesting that for most people, it borders on lunacy to be long risk ahead of the POTUS elections, but it seems to be the right thing to do. I suspect we will get a Trump victory, with the market moving higher steadily until Nov 20th, roughly.
The crash that follows might be of significant proportions, as the post COVID world brought forth many problematic changes to fundamentals, making the current rally unsustainable, once we go back to normal and end lock downs globally. Without some miracle, I think we will see interest rates go up, inflation rear its ugly head and markets gyrate in a large volatile sideways range similar to the one that took place from 1997 to 2011. In such an environment, it won't be easy to generate returns from investments in equities, and we might see commodities outperform equities, value outperform growth, and many other relative performance trends reverse course (like the long US Tech, short the world trend) which a deflationary world allowed to exist. Stock picking and market timing will make a big difference in this new world.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
SPY: Market could have peakedThe last bullish signal we had, has expired in the weekly timeframe, and many stocks started to collapse today. There's a chance support holds here if the market slows down the fall for a few hours and liquidity returns to markets, but, risk is very elevated. I've been exiting my remaining bullish positions, and have been long $VIXY for a couple weeks already, now exposed to bearish positions in select names only. For the time being. I'm keen on buying value stocks if the opportunities present themselves again, but also keen on shorting overvalued stocks.
Bitcoin has taken a nosedive today as well, and triggered a weekly bearish signal in the money supply adjusted chart, as per my other publication. I urge you to be careful going forward, if the market hasn't peaked, which we will know for sure once we see liquidity return and $VIX start dropping, the risk of being exposed on the long side is very high.
Charts give good low risk opportunities if one knows what to look for. This is a trader's market, investors might not fare well a long time.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Bitcoin dominance: Alt season until December?This is what the charts seem to suggest, might coincide with a period of sideways action in $BTCUSD, perhaps awakening once again by the end of 2020. I'm not keen on trading $BTCUSD or large cap alts while they are sideways and choppy but many smaller coins have good setups. Please be careful with sizing and liquidity when trading altcoins. I'd suggest small position sizing and risk of 1% per trade max. Do your own due diligence there, I have a few setups that I reserve for my clients that I won't share here, but you can find them if you research enough. Most of the time it seems they rally before news catalysts are known, to then peak in a typical sell the news fashion, but at times they keep going into a larger trend, so it is a case per case thing.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$WST: Weekly trend signal activeWe have a nice signal here in $WST, a trend signal lasting until the 2nd week of October at least, as long as prices hold over the $270 mark. A clear beneficiary of the pandemic, $WST has been growing steadily for a long time, and although overvalued, I think we can squeeze some more upside from the stock before a major top forms.
It will be interesting to see how it acts going into the next quarterly report.
I'm using a proprietary strategy to benefit from these trend signals, you can trade this setup with long stock positions or using options. I'm favoring options for the most part lately, due to the elevated downside risks we have for the time being. I'm skeptical but open to the possibility of a rally peaking by October or EOY, before witneseeing the next large scale correction across most asset classes like we had in February.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: Potential for another crash from here...We will know within a couple weeks with more certainty but this level could inflict serious pain on crypto holders.
I'm out of my long positions and mostly lending since we broke down after failing to break out above resistance a few days ago.
I suspect the stock market is about to stage yet another COVID crash, accompanied by other asset classes also falling, so I trimmed all my positions and started positioning myself in bearish bets across the board, gradually. Given the actions of central banks throughout the world, I chose to adjust the price to the money supply of the dollar to get a better idea of what price is for $Bitcoin now. This puts it back at levels from where we crashed a few times already.
As an extra, CME positioning starts to turn bearish as well, similarly to past tops. Sentiment has gotten overboard with altcoins being pumped left and right by yield farmers buying them at centralized exchanges when viable, and also decreased the crypto balances at exchanges dramatically, causing dramatic moves due to reduced liquidity.
Full confirmation of this scenario would come with a rapid decline from this area by the end of August, by then, odds of this scenario taking place will increase dramatically.
Best of luck, stay safe.
Ivan Labrie.
ETHUSD: Time at Mode signal active...Reward to risk wise, this signal that just got triggered in $ETHUSD is a great opportunity. As for the $ETHBTC chart, the odds of $ETHBTC moving up substantially are still not that great. From what I see in the chart, there's a weekly signal and a failed monthly signal in $ETHBTC. Upside implied by it is around 0.027-0.03. Not that impressive vs the long term upside in $BTCUSD. Overall I think it's better to trade $ETHUSD on margin, if anything, to add some extra profits in case crypto markets keep rallying.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
DXY: Likely a bottom here...I think we saw peak sentiment in Gold already and the dollar is likely reaching a bottom here. Upside is a retest of the distribution level from where this move down started.
Keep an eye out for signs of Dollar strength in different pairs. Perhaps we might see relative strength in US equities vs Europe as well, and bonds vs European ones.
Any sign of strength can be a good long entry here soon.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
TLT: Looks like the downtrend failed and we get a rally...It looks like bonds will rally until the elections possibly here. I'm long bonds and gold for the time being.
Let's play it safe until we regain clarity. Not sure about equities but the new ATH in #SPX might indeed happen at some point, just that news make it extremely risky to trade equities until the elections risks are out of the way. This is a safe trend to hold on to meanwhile and squeeze a 25% return out of.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
SPX: Likely to break into new all time highs next...Strong action in the S&P500 futures here, looks like equities will maintain their strength for the time being as $SPX is set to break into new highs over the current all time high if the daily chart signal we have here pans out. I'm long and fully invested for the time being, holding a portfolio of individual stock picks, but watching the index to hedge the portfolio with shorts when needed.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#XAUUSD: Long then flip short in 6 weeks...I think this is what's going on in gold, a massive blow off top is cooking. I am long via gold mining shares right now, looking to ride the rest of the upswing until we hit the top in about 6 weeks from now, then will likely flip short once buyers run out of money to throw at the yellow metal. Looks like some flows out of equities are heading into gold right now, judging by the price action. Once these buyers run out of ammo it will tank hard, that's my guess here.
Yellow box is the target, perhaps a bit higher than 2011 highs.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: Weekly trend continuation signalWe might get a nice move out of this juncture. #BTCUSD formed an accumulation level here, potentially, and already flashed a daily and then weekly trend signal. Targets are the cyan boxes, and in a very extreme case the red box target. I personally think it might not break higher than 2019 highs, hitting resistance near 12150, but, I will go with the flow here. Already long from a tad lower, and also in a few altcoin positions with 30% of the portfolio as well for a few days.
I can see the total market cap rising 35% roughly, within the next few weeks.
This signal aligns with the #XAUUSD chart I posted as well, and with the idea of #SPX breaching the previous all time high before seeing a drop again. If the market is sideways for 9 years like yearly Time@Mode charts suggest, a perfect sideways enviroment would be one where we reverse after trapping everyone on fake breakouts...
In the case of #XAUUSD, this might be a very extreme sentiment peak once it breaches 2011 highs. I'm looking forward to it.
Keep an eye on the inverted head and shoulders crowd, many people like some particularly notorious veterans who use classical TA patterns will spot one once we break out over 10500, if we do. And this pattern will give them a pretty lame target of 17k , which I think won't be hit given the current macro situation. Would be good to sell our coins to the guys counting on that happening before it drops...Keep an eye out for that, sentiment should turn mad bullish again near the top.
Best of luck to all my followers and clients.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
XAUUSD: hit the highest weekly low since 2011 and down...It's possibly over for a while, for gold, a weekly trend expired last week and it hit a massive resistance and was rejected. If you hold the yellow metal, you are better off selling it for USD here. Doesn't look promising in the slightest, and inflation is highly unlikely to materialize, despite the huge money printing we saw after the Coronavirus induced crash. I think this is it for gold, get out before it's too late.
I would happily buy it after a big enough fall...
Cheers,
Ivan.
NKLA: Huge upside with low riskWe have a nice setup in #NKLA here. I'm already long from lower, but looking to add some exposure to ride this move.
I'm overall impressed with the huge short interest in the stock, it pays off to hold shares in a margin account and lend them to short sellers, while benefiting from this trend.
You can do this with certain brokerage firms that share part of the borrowing costs with share holders, as long as they sit in a margin account, like IBKR for instance.
That said, fundamentals for the company are at the very least interesting, although largely unproven. The CEO does have a big mouth and makes bold claims, but he has a few interesting things to say. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt with a small position in the stock. Try to keep risk in check...Hydrogen generation is quite low cost, and the long distance efficiency of an EV truck with a relatively light weight FOOL cell I mean fuel cell, is an interesting and potentially profitable proposition. $TSLA is still king when it comes to EV cars though, but good to see some competition in the field.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
