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#BTCUSD: Top, or at least the biggest correction since 2020I think we have substantial risk that we are about to face the largest correction $Bitcoin has seen since the bottom in March 2020. Biden's proposal to hike taxes has roiled markets globally, and specially risk on assets naturally. Commodities are already rallying big and we know inflation is around the corner. I wouldn't be shocked if we saw the top for good, but I'm open to the possibility that this is a healthy correction to delever the market. Estimated leverage ratios from all exchanges are very high as per Crypto Quant data, which opens the possibility for a cascading liquidation run towards substantially lower prices if long term buyers don't support the market here. No one likes a market that is 'too long'. We are hedged from higher levels today. Sellers had taken a pause since the liquidation drop a few days ago, but buying pressure failed to manifest itself, and instead we observed an increase in leverage once again from retail buyers confident to buy the dip (was a red flag according to Santiment data). We haven't had corrections larger than 30% so far, not by much, unlike previous bullish trends in crypto, and we have a huge support level at 42381, the price where we heard about $TSLA buying $Bitcoin for the first time. The market reacted to it and I could determine this Key Level using Key Hidden Levels, a proprietary trading methodology and toolset developed by my mentor, @timwest . For the time being I'm in cash in my crypto account, waiting for the dust to settle, I certainly was a bit shaken by the recent action as we topped after hitting the 1st long term target zone in my big picture chart, at 57k, rather than trend for the duration of the forecasted rally until May 2022. This is unlike the previous bullish cycle. The only similarity is we have a crazy euphoria in altcoins, even in the face of falling $Bitcoin prices vs the dollar, and crazy high funding rates at exchanges and enormous leverage. It was one of my possible scenarios, since we had the 'laser eyes' trend catching on, I felt it was a sign of the times and a sentiment red flag but shrugged it off since weekly charts had remained strong, although I failed to realize the underlying market structure was not healthy with so much leverage in the system. The scenario I outlined was that we top at the first target, falling short of that 100k milestone...and bottom when people give up on the laser eyes meme. We should get signs of institutional buyers stopping the fall to get some reassurance, for now they are nowhere to be seen. Let's hope the bottom is confirmed very soon, and this isn't the end of the bullish trend but it is certainly possible. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by IvanLabrie
77
#BTCUSD: Trend is up in the long term and now mid term as well..Everyone continues to be bearish and fearful among the crypto folk, which is highly interesting. In this market, only the lowest of IQs and the highest will make money, as strange as it sounds, since it's a strong trend. Normal folks who suffer from post 2018 to 2020 bear market PTSD are reluctant to hold and take risks this time around, right when taking risks is rewarded. This leaves corporate entities fomoing into BTC and new entrants from the 'stacking sats' movement as the only people making money steadily. It will be interesting once we have more and more momentum in the new trend of CEOs acquiring #BTC reserves from their cash piles, as this might cause a big self reinforcing trend, together with the Grayscale and Halving effect reducing available supply. This trend can go for a long time, until something big pops it, most likely due to government intervention. Long term technicals suggest this will go on until mid 2022, and I believe this is accurate and logical with fundamentals here. Think of this: -CEO of company A picks up #BTC reserves -Company A's stock goes up due to it -#BTCUSD goes higher after the announcement -People fomo into #BTC -Funds and other entities bound by limitations to trade #BTC directly fomo into company A's stock to get #BTC exposure. -Other companies' CEOs fomo into #BTC as well, seeing Company A's stock price surge as a result. -Repeat loop with more companies and more people fomoing into #BTC and stocks. When does this cycle end? Only a big catalyst can stop a self reinforced trend in motion. When it pops it will be spectacularly catastrophic though. Cheers, see you by mid 2022, at much, much higher prices (between 60k-186k-360k-2.2m USD per #BTC over time) Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
30
#ETHBTC: Upside until end of May...It seems we have a trend here, I'm thinking we see a big rotation out of #BNB ecosystem and into #ETH based DeFi. Bitcoin Dominance chart suggests we have alt season until the end of May, and it fits this chart nicely. Let's see how this goes. Personally, I'm exposed via low risk margin positions against #Bitcoin collateral myself, but it is potentially valid to buy spot #ETH with #BTC here and specially on dips too. What comes after this signal ends might be a massacre of Altcoin prices in Bitcoin terms I think. I'd suggest caution to people holding alts. Sell in (late) May and go away (into Bitcoin spot). Thank me later... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
#SUSHI: Big trend kicked off...I suspect money is rotating back into #ETH and DeFi coins, moving out of the Binance ecosystem due to the drop in gas prices caused by flashbots preventing front running bots to cause a feedback loop of increasing transaction fees, which was a problem that had sent gas prices sky high. This had contributed to the rise of BSC and sent BNB sky high (paired with speculation on Coinbase's IPO valuation and BNB or FTT being proxies of exchanges valuation catching up to Coinbase's), but that trend is likely done or bound to retrace or consolidate as money rotates back into Ethereum and Ethereum based DeFi coins once again. I'm long a few coins here, including Ethereum itself, but I bring you SUSHI today. Reward to risk is at least 8 to 1, could be higher if target #2 here is reached. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FTX:SUSHIPERPLong
by IvanLabrie
5
$TSLA: Bullish trend resuming here$1100 is in the cards here, $TSLA is resuming its weekly uptrend here. Analysts have been updating their coverage of the stock and we have many interesting catalysts lining up together with the earnings report coming up. Upcoming catalysts: Earnings Full Self Driving Beta v9 updates by May Biden's EV credit passing this year Berlin Gigafactory opening Austin opening Full Self Driving roll out by year end perhaps I think by now we had a good wash out and correction in $TSLA and other growth names, and as is, $TSLA is probably the cheapest of the mega cap stocks. Highly interesting reward to risk here, over 24 to 1 if my target is hit considering the stop loss area sub $677. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
#BTCUSD: Update - Coinbase IPO, new institutional buyers...Weekly trend in Bitcoin is about to confirm here, either going a tad higher or by this week's close. Daily is already trending up for a while, so the odds of this confirming are extremely high. We are already long from previous publications, but the continuation signals and pullback entries give us low risk chances to add or estimate where to trim exposure before corrections. Coinbase is set to debut in the stock market today, and we had news of new institutional entrants recently, I think a big short squeeze is forming here. We had some huge volumes in the recent dip, only seen in CME charts when prices crashed on April 7th. There was also persistent selling at the 59-60k area for many weeks in a row since the top at 61k during March. This persistent selling at practically the same price created a cluster of orders that were filled in the same area near the top of the range. This tells me the sellers kept hitting this area until they ran out of ammo, then tried pushing further on April 7th and lost the plot since. Buyers are now trapping them, they tried to corner the market and failed, and will get squeezed next. Targets are where I think prices will land in the next few weeks, after which we might get another consolidation and correction, with downside volatility of 20-30% being highly likely after May 30th. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
12
TIME AT MODE IN CRUDE OIL DAILY MARCH 18 2021 818AM ESTHere's a quick TREND ANALYSIS using a simple method I like to call "TIME AT MODE" in the current crude oil market. I'm using the April 2021 futures contract to do the daily analysis. FIRST, notice that the crude oil market has not made a new high in over 5-days. That observation makes me look for downside trades in crude oil by first finding the "mode" since the high and then working from there. Here are the steps to analyze the setup. ///////////// Here's a CLOSER look at $CLJ2021 April Crude Oil ONCE there are 5-days without a new high, put a trend arrow at the peak, then work forward from there... From that first 5-days, there is a mode that I have labeled "4d" for 4-days at this price, which is the highest 4-day mode since the peak/start of the downtrend There is a RgExp decline that I have labeled with the yellow triangle, marking the start of the 4-day downtrend (which ends today) Since that first "trend day", the "RgExp down day" with the Yellow Triangle... there has been minimal follow-through and that has allowed the MODE to drop to the "7d" mode you see labeled there just under $65 at $64.96 (the high of the "lowest range" day last week on Wednesday). There is a chance that stocks are leading $USOIL down here, so it could just be taking its time or perhaps crude oil longs don't care about the drop in stocks now that the stimulus bill has passed. The 7-day mode hasn't confirmed yet by RangeExpanding down to kick off a new 7-day decline from the $64.96 level.... The RgExp level is where the market is down MORE TODAY than YESTERDAY'S RANGE... Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:18AM EST //////////// I will follow up this chart with another chart discussing the 7-day downside implications for Crude Oil. Simply stated, measure the "range around the mode" and project that price down from the highest point of the mode. That is your first target. The next possible target is 2x the range around the mode, projected down. Add that to your chart. Tim West, March 18, 2021 8:25AM EST
NYMEX:CLJ2021Short
by timwest
10
#SUSHI: Trending up...I think $SUSHIBTC and $SUSHIUSD or $SUSHIPERP are trending nicely here and stand to benefit from the recent ATH break in $BTCUSD. Price discovery at play, there is a nice trend in the 3-Day timeframe here, so we can expect significant upside by April 9th or sooner as per the chart here. I'm long from a tad lower, but figured I should publish this idea here so others can benefit by joining on dips. Ideally price shouldn't retrace beyond recent lows, if this signal is valid, it should stay mostly near the highs and advance from here in the coming days. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
FTX:SUSHIPERPLong
by IvanLabrie
5
Top in $TSLA Was Outlined Weeks in Advance at Key Hidden Levels The “TIME AT MODE” method of analyzing price consolidations and subsequent trends nailed the top in $TSLA in the latest peak. Very simply stated: We outlined the top based on the # of weeks at the last consolidation. Once a market “breaks away” from that consolidation by “range expanding” as shown with the yellow triangle, you can begin counting down time based on the # of bars (in this case, weekly bars) that touch the most frequent price (mode). Once time has expired, as shown, the price can correct back towards the start of the trend. Wishing you all good fortune in the markets. I also outlined fundamental reasons for the decline in $TSLA, which I will outline in a subsequent comment to this chart. Best regards, Tim West
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by timwest
13
SPX: What if the trend is still intact in the long term?I've been considering this possibility, given the still active quarterly and yearly trend signals in #SPX500 here. You can see that both trends predict rising prices until the end of 2021, or even until Q3 2022. So far, seems like most people have been constantly trying to call tops since the COVID lows, and failing miserably at it. I've had my doubts, but now that vaccines are being rolled out very soon, I believe we might see further upside in equities, specially in the right sectors (which I'm invested in). Some names might start faring worse if we see increasing inflation, but we have to keep an eye on the yield curve to tell if this is the case or not. For now, it isn't farfetched to assume a rotation to value might take place, but it is not crazy either to assume the index will trend higher for a long time still. Personally, given the yield of stocks compared to treasuries I think it is reasonable to be long stocks, long term, as long as rates don't rise too fast. A lot of the usual suspects started banging their hyperinflation/death of the dollar drum again, I find it hard to believe they get it right. I trust in our collective determination and wits, to take us out of this hole we are in since Feb, hopefully I'm not wrong for our sake. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500Long
by IvanLabrie
4
DXY: Quarterly trend signal?There's a 60% chance that the dollar index will start trending rapidly and steadily, to eventually be 15-20% higher within 16 quarters or less. This would put it near resistance from the 90s rally top zone. I would look at FX signals more closely from here onwards. Observe the previous signals, the quarterly timeframe has been quite reliable in the dollar so far. This signal is valid while price holds over this quarter's open or by the time 16 quarters elapse (this active bar being the 1st one). Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
1
BTCUSD: Sideways until February...I think we have a clear signal here, the market is sideways dealing with break even sellers from the 2017 top, as well as CME short sellers trying to keep it DEAD below their original attempt to destroy $Bitcoin for good. Unfortunately for them, the world doesn't quite agree with their initial thesis and they might end up squeezed here. Most traders have been selling or calling for a drop to 13 to 14k to buy back having sold lower. I think price won't please these investors who were antsy. Sentiment still is that of a wall of worry, or impending doom in most chatrooms... I'm long term bullish on $Bitcoin here, specially considering all Macro variables, provided we stay on course with the yield curve steepening over time, as the world goes back to 'normal', following the extreme damage caused by post COVID stimulus measures. Hodl, buy the dip, add once we consolidate for long enough and keep an eye out for the next batch of $PYPL news regarding the rest of the world getting access to buying crypto from their platform. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
14
Soybeans: Trending up, buy on dips...I think we have a nice setup to buy the dip in Soybean futures or using $SOYB. It's a rather big contract, so keep that in mind if trading futures. There's a long term trend signal active, for many more months still, so any dip is a buy if you're patient enough. I highlight a trend that reached its peak in the daily timeframe here, so, a retracement entry is likely to materialize in the coming days and weeks. Keep an eye on it, don't miss out on the big gains to be had in this market. As @timwest pointed out, fundamentals for Soybeans and the long term chart are ridiculously bullish now, so, it is going to be very hard to hold on to positions for long enough to reap the benefits, and specially hard to join the trend for most people. The droughts in Brazil are affecting crops, and there's a huge demand from China, since the soybean producing regions were affected by floods recently, there's also a big need for soybeans to produce pork in South America, like the huge farms they are setting up in the South of Argentina. As a bonus, if the US wants to hurt China, their best bet is to make the food prices go up, specially Soybeans. They had been buying commodities for cheap for a long time until now. That might be changing already, and considering the expectations I have of rising inflation and interest rates, in a post Pandemic world, this is further fuel for the fire in this rally here. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by IvanLabrie
3
XRP: Good reward to risk here...I'm publishing this one, since it's a huge reward to risk trade here. I like the setup and it's worth holding a small position in this, or building one slowly during the next 2 months. Upside is significant, see the white box for reference. Invalidation would be if we get a 50% drop or so from here, so you can't really risk too big on this idea. It's a long shot trade, but definitely worth your time with a reward to risk over 84 to 1...There's an airdrop coming, which will likely add some extra profits to your $XRP position if you choose to enter. dailyhodl.com Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
5
LTCUSD: Long term uptrend activeWe start to see bullish signals in altcoins now, lagging $BTCUSD's advance, which confirmed a long term trend during July/August. Upside here is very good, and reward to risk is like 22 to 1. That said, I much prefer $Bitcoin exposure personally, given the fundamentals of $LTC being inferior in my opinion. That said, altcoins can have sharp moves, where they briefly outperform $BTCUSD, so it is of paramount importance to watch the $LTCBTC ratio for a signal to buy (or sell) to ride these moves when viable. If you're an $LTC investor, hodl, cause it will go a lot higher. Probably peaking before $BTCUSD, if I had to guess...But at least likely to not go down until $BTCUSD tops by 1st half of 2022. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
BITFINEX:LTCUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
4
ADAUSD: Weekly uptrend signal$ADA is in an active uptrend here, as many alts are. Upside is significant, but do your due diligence on whether to buy this particular coin over another. Perhaps a market cap weighted basket approach is better for alts, as long as the resulting index has a bullish trend...Just an idea here, whatever you do, make sure you understand what your max loss is if the trade is invalidated with a drop a tad under this week's range. You will need to learn how to read price action as it develops, to trade these patterns effectively, initially you can follow my forecasts and aim to sell once targets and time forecasts are exhausted. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
KRAKEN:ADAUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
2