#ATVI: Buy the dip!I think this can be a large scale reversal in $ATVI here, worth a punt.
Load up the truck, best of luck.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Timeatmode
SPY: Bottom of the correction here...I'm calling a bottom for this correction here, the market held support from Q2 earnings season, it is still trending up in the long term, even if in the short term we had a correction due to selling due to overreacting and misreading Fed minutes, into an illiquid market. I liked @timwest's analogy today: 'If you sell into an illiquid market, it's like diving into an empty pool, it's gonna hurt'.
I'm still holding my long positions and banked a couple shorts today, although I'm shorting overvalued names that are reversing, since certain sectors are likely to fare worse than others, rotation is the name of the game. The broad market chugs along, but individual names bring a lot more opportunity if you know where to look.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
$RBLX: Roblox has massive upside...$RBLX has come a long way down and found support at previous accumulation levels, we had a nice jump, as bulls expect earnings to go well. I'm bullish on the in game economy and the popularity of the game rising periodically. I do like the chart a lot here as well, and reward to risk is very good, so a buying opportunity on dips is in the cards. Keep an eye on it, if you are up for the year, you can risk buying before the earnings report, if not, wait to buy the next dip into support AFTER the earnings report is out of the way.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
#BTCUSD: Bear market still ongoing...The daily trend had a bullish signal which I sadly overlooked and missed the move here, I still sit in cash, luckily I did cover my shorts near the very bottom. There is an interesting scenario setting up, everyone is once again complacent and bullish to the extreme, people are trading JPGs for millions, no one gives a damn about regulatory risks and everyone is back to believing in the Super Cycle nonsense. The daily chart suggests we could short under a daily low, specially after August 10th, when the current uptrend signal expires. Risk a move into new highs after that happens, and ride the next leg down with some luck.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#DJI: DJIA leading the charge?We have an interesting situation, at least for the following 6 weeks...After the jobs report, the market is repricing the timing of tapering and eventual rate hikes it would seem. Financials had underperformed for some time, and $QQQ and $SPY moved higher thanks to growth names regaining strength, while bond yields were falling and a big unwind of losing yield curve steepener bets were unwinding. I had pointed out the strength in growth and bonds before, and rotated away from value and financials/energy when I figured out the reflation move had ran its course.
At least financials are prone to do very well for the next few weeks, as the weekly uptrend in $TLT expired, and predicts a 6 week sideways or down move in bonds, which is connected to mean reversion following a furious move caused partially by the unwinding of big yield curve bets. News of the hedge fund that took the hit were recently published, which made me think the move in the yield curve is overdone and bound to mean revert. This will favor US banks for some time again. We also observe this behavior in the $DJI chart here, and the $SPY and $QQQ weekly charts.
Both $SPY and $QQQ have weekly trends that expire in the next 2 weeks, which can lead to a sideways or downside move after the last short term upswing takes a breather.
I'm still bullish longer term overall, in names like $AAPL, $TSLA and $NVDA to name a few, but they might correct or consolidate in two weeks, while US Banks soar.
The trend will likely go back to lower bond yields and outperformance of growth later on, but for now it is the time of the $DJI to shine over $SPY and $QQQ, specially in 2 weeks from now.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
$BTC vs $AMZN: What if...This is just an interesting comparison, something like this would absolutely wipe out everyone, and reset things, as far as sentiment goes, whilst giving a great opportunity to long term buyers to accumulate $BTC at really low levels, if things came to pass like they did for $AMZN back in the 2000 top. In this theoretical scenario, price would go sideways during 1 year, to then crash in a slow bleed, falling to levels only seen at the start of the rally coming out of the 2015 lows...
As a result of this, and regulations, and the disappearance of all the wild leverage traders, and exchanges, maybe volatility settles down, and $BTC starts acting like a tech stock, eventually reaching prices over $1,000,000 in the next 10-15 years. Something like this would give us a great opportunity, both on the short side, and then on the long side, if things do come to pass in this manner, and would definitely frustrate a lot of people who bought into $BTC, and believes in the HODL religion. These beliefs will likely change or disappear, by the time it bottoms.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
PS: My forecast is still for a sideways 2018, and possible sideways 2019, but we could indeed get a bear market too, the rules of Time At Mode imply the long term bull market ended, and we will wither go sideways, or crash back to $442, or close to it. It seems wild now, but it is entirely possible still. Better be open to anything happening, and not biased and blinded by our greed. Shout out to Tim West, who mentioned this overlay, as something worth looking into.
Growth vs Value: Outperformance in growth namesI think we are entering a period similar to that of April 2020 to September 2020, and growth names will outperform value stocks dramatically until Q4 2021 or Q1 2022.
The market could be about to top in the very long term after these developments, as we had a massive rally in oil, and a rapid surge in global credit creation since the pandemic lows. Govts and Central Banks have been easing, keeping real interest rates below the natural rate of interest while providing stimulus aiding people until an economic recovery took place.
We are just now slowly going back to normal, but the economic recovery is yet to reach levels adequate for the easing to stop. All the stimulus and credit creation paired with supply chain issues due to lock downs has led to a period of higher inflation expectations, driven mainly by a tremendous rally in commodities, which seems to be over by now. There is an interesting pattern where the global credit impulse chart leads changes in bond yields with a 10 month time lag and/or industrial commodities returns by about 8 months (as noted by Alfonso Peccatiello, author of 'The Macro Compass' substack). The data shows it peaked in Q4 2020, which, forward 8 months, gives us a peak in April-June for commodities and by Q4 2021 for bond yields to move (and likely affect risk assets overall). This possibly will match the time required for data to give the Federal Reserve confidence to taper and accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, faster than the market potentially expects.
My mentor, @timwest had pointed out that big rallies or declines in oil precede bottoms or tops in equities with a 6 month lag, this metric also fits the idea of a top by EOY.
Refer to his publication in related ideas for more info on that pattern, it's extremely interesting, as it gives actionable key levels for long term analysis.
See related ideas for my long term forecast for Nasdaq, which fits this macro framework as well, potentially predicting a long term rally culminating by Q4 2021 or Q1 2022. This same pattern is present in mega cap names like $AAPL and $AMZN, and visible in $SPY charts as well.
After the current growth rally, we might get a period where there is a dollar shortage in the Eurodollar market, and everything goes risk off, except for $DXY.
We need to be prepared to mitigate its effect or even profit from it, but also don't miss the current huge rally that is starting now.
This will likely happen after real interest rates surpass natural observed interest rates, triggering a broad risk asset selloff and deleveraging.
What has happened historically is that after long term trends end in major stock indices, we enter a period where commodities outperform stocks, this is likely to occur after the initial shock recedes. Might be the time to revisit my long term $XAGUSD idea.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
References:
www.richmondfed.org
www.treasury.gov
themacrocompass.substack.com
www.macromarketsdaily.com
$BTCUSD: bear market thesisBy now, price has wiped out the 2 month timeframe range expansion stop loss area, basically retesting the yearly open price. People are now buying into YET another 'technical analysis' excuse for NOT selling and or buying into it on margin once again. This will keep going until the market bottoms. The reason bear markets are so annoying to trade is this, people keep buying on the way down, this is textbook as per Livermore: 'manipulators unload their stash after the top on the way down'.
Fundamentals have forced chinese miners to unload coins to relocate their mining operations outside of China, this won't end anytime soon I suppose, and people have been destroyed trying to buy all the different technical excuses to date (moving averages of different periods, Wyckoff spring, wedge breakout retest, double, triple bottoms, etc.) You name it, people remain bullish on the way down, which is completely negative for price in the long term, this is called confidence in loss, and it is a sign of continuation to the downside over time, complacency at its finest.
Without the GBTC premium, arbitrage players no longer were absorbing all new mined coins, and helping reduce available supply at exchanges, thus increasing the slippage on new big OTC purchases, which helped cause the bubble from 10k to 64k. The 'corporate treasury' trend is also over, since the last batch of institutional OTC buyers got destroyed after the Canada ETF came out and the GBTC premium disappeared. This was until then, a perfect self reinforced trend as described by George Soros in his book: 'Alchemy of finance'.
Watch for reaction to the area below, keep an eye on sentiment, wait for maybe some big cue like Michael Saylor being forced out of his $BTC bag, and then we can go long. Trading the decline will be tremendously hard and annoying, it just isn't worth it.
Stay safe out there,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie.
#ETSY: Big reversal, basing after the previous decline endedThe weekly Time@Mode trend signal here expired, signaling a potential reversal in the making. Price action was seen basing for weeks on end since the initial rapid decline stopped. Looks like price can stage a comeback and land on $214 or higher, or even new highs in the coming months. I'm long from around here, aiming for the blue arrow target, but potentially riding this one for longer if warranted.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#NFLX: Long term trend resuming? Daily and weekly are bullishThe way I see things we are about to have a face melting beta rally, with growth outperforming value again for the rest of the year and into Q1-Q2 2022 at least.
$NFLX might be a good position to have, quite unloved for a long time, lagging the mega cap rally, and coming out of a nice base, weekly uptrend formed after the 9 week down trend signal expired last week.
I like the Spielberg partnership news, and the way things are going with the new delta variant and rising cases I suspect people will do a whole lot more of sitting and streaming at home for much longer.
One thing $NFLX was lacking was new content, now they are once again able to film new stuff, and might actually generate some growth again.
Best of luck,
Cheers.
Ivan Labrie.
#PBF: Weekly uptrend, increasing demand amid driving seasonI like the setup in $PBF here, 35% upside at least from here vs a 14% downside risk. I'll keep an eye on the target zone, as this could move even higher over time, until the forecasted rally duration pans out. We had some great trades in this stock since the March 2020 bottom, last weekly signal panned out perfectly before, I think it will perform once again.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
#CF: Interesting setup hereDownside risk in $CF is pretty low here, can break out and rally toward the targets on chart within the next few days.
Can be a good position to have for roughly 9 days.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#EURCAD: Bottom's inI suspect the $EURCAD cross pair is reversing in the weekly timeframe here, we might see a substantial rally as oil could be peaking here, and the $Euro is oversold.
The setup calls for a potential rally to 1.53, with risk down to 1.47 if the trade fails. Ideally you try to get in on dips after the market is open, keep an eye on price action for an entry. Alternatively you can average in during the day to not be left out in case there's no retrace.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: Critical decision timeWe either started a bear market here, since the break down from the lower high (and the 2nd and smaller rising wedge concluded) OR we are at a nice retracement to rejoin the bullish trend which is still active, which could culminate with a rally topping short of 100k, by May 2022. I can confirm which is more likely over the coming days and weeks, and will give my clients the cue to buy when it is low risk, if the bull case is more probable. We sit in cash for now, since we sidestepped the decline from 54200 roughly. Altcoins have topped against #BTC as I explained in my dominance and $ETHBTC post, so the best bet is to rotate away from them if you didn't already do it, and probably a good time to hunt for short ALTBTC ops, whatever the trend direction may be. In both scenarios, altcoins lose.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#XLF: Financial names look strongI like the setup here for some quick gains in this ETF. Downside risk is very low compared to potential upside within the next 10 days give or take.
Longer term this could go higher, value stocks are strong in general due to inflation concerns and the reopening momentum.
Best of luck if taking this trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#ULTA: Nice uptrend hereNice upside with relatively low risk in $ULTA for a swing trade here. I can see this rallying until August 20th easily, and reaching as high as $426 as best case scenario here.
If price were to move below the white horizontal line this signal becomes invalid.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
#AUDUSD: Short term setup at playSeems like #AUDUSD has a low risk long trade here, with favorable reward to risk and probability. Worth a shot risking a small amount to the stop.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
GME: Ready to move again...It looks like $GME is ready to break out from this range it was coiling in and massively rally towards $2360 per share by late August.
I'd give this a 65% probability of happening, vs risk of losing 30% if it fails to rally. That's a 33 to 1 reward to risk which makes the trade totally worth it.
Try not to risk over 5% in the position if you take it, in my case I'm buying 3.3% to risk 1% if wrong. That's enough for my risk appetite.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
QQQ: Uptrend in motionI am not a firm believer on inflation being transitory, and am pretty sure we are in the very last innings of a long term rally in equities that started from the 2009 lows. The yearly #SPX chart suggests this tops this year, which could be at any point of the year, and logically not later than EOY. The big question is when will the Fed hike interest rates, and what will happen with their bond purchase program. Stimulus is likely to increase, judging by the current turn of events and the administration at the helm.
It's probably wise to be a bull in bonds, precious metals and equities for the time being, but I would be careful once we reach the end of the year. Mid term signal here indicates a rapid and steady rally in equities until late August, before the next consolidation period starts in the weekly timeframe. I focus on where will the rotations of big money will take place, and also monitor fundamental and technical developments across sectors and different stocks to figure out what names to hold in my portfolio.
It's still highly interesting to analyze the action in $QQQ and $SPY overall.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Ethereum: Likely topped vs BTCI'm pretty sure we saw the top of the alt season rally here. If Bitcoin topped for good or not, $ETHBTC likely goes lower next. Everyone and their mother believe in up only and want alt season forever, people quit jobs for crypto, there's a lot of flippening talk, before this drop people were talking about the price levels they want to sell $ETHBTC at, higher of course, mining gear is selling at insane prices and people pay them without problems, but they pay with cash, not with crypto cause they are confident in upside still...Doge at SNL was peak altcoin lunacy here, and the performance of $ETHBTC during the drop in $BTCUSD is reminiscent of January 2018. Upside risk to short it vs $Bitcoin is lower than potential downside.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: Market likely topped with stocks hereI was considering the action before a long term top, with the action we saw lately in equities and the bubble in altcoins, it is very hard to stay long #Bitcoin here. I don't think it's safe to hold long exposure for the time being, and there is a distinct chance this was a long term top. Buying the dip near 50k was rewarding but it is probably time to bank those gains and move on for some time. This could easily crash towards 43k, where a potential support area lies. Some people have orders around there due to a confluence of technical methods showing it as a buy. If long term trend is up, I'd suppose this area isn't hit, if it is hit, I would find it VERY strange if it bounces after pleasing people.
For the time being I will monitor this closely, but don't want to rush back into crypto until it is clear this breaks up and not down.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
ETCBTC & ETCETH: Huge long term top...I'm pretty sure Ethereum Classic topped for good here vs $Ethereum and $Bitcoin.
Let's see how this plays out, shorting is probably safe with a small position.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Dominance: Uptrend can start from hereI think the alt season period we saw lately is over, it was a massive run since Dominance had peaked when Bitcoin was 1 week from peaking at 42k.
The wealth generated in altcoins could be diverted towards Bitcoin here and help it recover from these levels. Certainly if I was an altcoin whale holding massive amounts of Ethereum in profit, I would rotate it into Bitcoin for a low risk play here, downside risk is dramatically different in both assets. The EIP1559 front run rally could be over here.
Keep an eye on this trade!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
