Three Drives
Light Crude Three DrivesOctober Light Crude looking like it wants to build out a three drives scenario. Next target for bears is moving through pivot at 68.100 and attacking the 20 day MA. RSI is staying within a pennant pattern. Crude could use pivot to launch up again. If it does it could then collapse at R1 at 70.600
CAD is headed to 1.2900The release of the Canadian monthly CPI* was sufficient motivation for the price to bounce off the resistance line on the 17th of August. Seeing that happen might determine traders to buy the CAD until the pair reaches the lower limit of the channel. The target is 1.2900 which is the whereabouts of MS1 (1.2890) and the extremity of a three-drives pattern (4h chart). Key fundamentals will play an important role in shaping this projection and eyes are on CA* and US* data release on the 22nd of August.
Short, TP 1.2901, SL 1.3151
Long, Entry 1.2870 - 1.2900, TP1: 1.3040, TP2: 1.3140, SL 1.2837
AUDUSD - Three Dives Takes Aussie Down with CopperAUDUSD is about to complete or probably has completed a three dives pattern right under 618.
Taking a look at copper, the price of copper has also made a significant retracement and reversal sign is forming at an important supply zone, thus copper is likely to fall soon.
The dollar though has been on the rise since last week, it is most likely a part of a major retracement and there has been no change to the major trend.
USD/JPY Potential Bullish Three Drives PatternUSD/JPY Potential Bullish Three Drives Pattern
After the long and medium term analysis for USD/JPY on the
weekly and daily time frame, the final analysis for the
short term on the 4 hour time frame is ready.
As previously mentioned in the other two analysis of USD/JPY,
the key level of support is the 110.30/00 level. On the 4
hour time frame however we could see a bullish trend
continuation IF the 111.20 level holds as support.
Running perpendicular, and a few pips above the 1/3
speed trend line, is a short term bullish support trend line
formed by the lows at 110.59 and 110.73. An adjusted
trend line from 110.73 to 111.10 makes it run
perpendicular to the 2/3 speed trend line. Both indicative
of bullish momentum. As long as price does not close
below 111.20 for the short term, the bullish trend
remains intact.
Only after price closes below the 1/3 speed trend line
is the short term bullish trend over exposing the 108.10
level below. A close above 112.15 this week, however,
would mean a resumption of the overall bullish trend -
please refer to my previous analysis on the weekly time
frame if you havent done so already to see where price
could potentially go from beyond the 112.15 and 113.18
level.
Trade long (RvR ratio 2:1)
Entry: Close above 111.24
S/L: 110.60
T/P: 112.52
As always, scale out your profits and adjust stop/loss to
suit your personal risk management.
Happy trading
GBP/JPY Projected Bearish Three Drives PatternGBP/JPY Bearish Three Drives
GBP/JPY is hanging, or better resting, on a very thin level of
intermediate support formed by a minor bullish trend line
currently. However, looking how close price came to closing
the gap between 142.20 to 142.60 at the end of May, 2018,
it seems very likely that it will now close this gap. The
reason why I believe it will, is because after price closed
below the second speed resistance trend line it got
rejected twice when it re-tested it, and above the 100 &
200 SMA have made a bearish cross over, thus, indicating
bearish momentum.
Whether we will see a 100% retracement back to 135.60
depends on what happens around the 142.00 level. If it
holds then obviously new highs could be formed after a
close above 156.00, if the 142.00 level does not
hold the last chance for the bullish trend to remain intact
is if the 138.80 level holds, which is approximately the
level of the bullish 100 & 200 SMA cross over.
Keep a close eye on USD/JPY, if it continues its short term
bearish correction expect GBP/JPY to continue dropping
as well.
Trade short 1 (RvR ratio 2:1)
Entry: Close below 144.35
S/L: 145.42
T/P: 142.20
Trade short 2 (RvR ratio 2:1)
Entry: Close below 142.20
S/L: 143.88
T/P: 138.84
As always, scale out your profits and adjust stop/loss to
suit your personal risk management profile.
Happy trading
September Canadian Dollar ChannelCAD is a trapped in a three drives downward channel. RSI is really close so either we will get a breach of the channel above pivot, or another lower run below pivot to S1 at .75111
OX in a three-drive pattern OX is one of the rare coins that continues to grind higher bearing in mind overall bearishness of the crypto market. The coin has pushed higher above the previous swing high and it is now correcting in order to get more support for the next wave higher. It looks like the OX is creating a bullish three-drive pattern that points out to more gains in the future. In essence, the price returns to the 61.8% retracement after the first drive. Similarly, the third wave should start after the second wave is finalized with another 61.8% retracement. Currently, it looks like the second the coin is in the second correction after which the third drive shall start.
If this is the case, watch for the reaction from the 61.8% level before continuing higher. The RSI on the H4 chart is also pointing towards a retrace to lower levels before continuing higher.
$SPY - Definitely bullishNothing really too technical at all I can get into with this one (not a big fan of hourly charts for LT price action) but, @ this point I couldn't see any other pattern but a wedge up / busted bear 3 drives pattern. Currently @ the re-trace so unless anyone sees a break of $268? I'm not sure where everyone else thinks this is going lol. I've seen this setup a number of times ($TRIP, $UA, $M, etc., Intra-day, not hourly) where 180WMA is finally over 789WMA almost like a regime change. Price action after the crossover - great, but not too great for long before it loses almost all of its gains of price since it crossed above 789WMA. Eventually, balances itself back out in a continuation. Long story short, BTFD. Just me tho lol
short term relief rally on EtherETH 4h: I am starting to see a three drives pattern on the 4h chart on the Ether (you can find an example here learn.tradimo.com). If this is indeed a validated Three drives pattern, expect a bounce up to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the whole move lower which is at $543.5 . The trade idea is no longer valid and the stop loss has to be triggered if we trade below $389. No change in my view about a broader decline; if it happens, this is just a relief rally. #notaninvestmentadvice #pleaedoyourownresearch #mypersonalview
BTC - ideas for fun!BTC - some observations for your amusement...
Bearish channel - two 150% extensions followed by two 230% extensions. (purple)
Over-extended ABCD - symmetrical. Bullish
Optimistic anti-butterfly!
Pessimistically continue three drives down in a new channel
Triple bottom confirmed on breaking trend at E
Or a short-term bearish Anti-Gartley or Nen-Star
And as a last a Bearish 5-0
Bitcoin's Harmonic JourneyBearish 5 Drives megastructure leading into a Bullish 5 drives up to 8500 to which will fulfill the overall Bearish 5 Drives w a target at around 5.5k.
Upon completion of 5.5k retracement OR sideways trending on a strong demand zone, Bitcoin's harmonic may become a Bullish Deep Crab to which will have a target of $10k+.
I've been bullish about bitcoin and I'm open to us shattering 8500 and reaching for 10k+ but I'm just reading the chart as it's presented and it's pretty clear what is being presented.
The following is astrological and Gann fan related. I am in now way a master of this and while I've witnessed the significant correlations of astrological events w price action and fud and fomo doesn't mean I am an authority on recognizing it. These are data points that I am interested in observing so just understand that's where this part of the analysis comes from.
There are different star systems that astrologers use. In the beginning, I used tropical, which is used for Western astrology but I'm favoring and using Sidereal (of the stars) astrology based on observations I've thus far made between tropical and sidereal for bitcoin's price action.
Astrological and Gann fan aspects: It's interesting to note that this weekend, there are several planetary bodies (the moon is a planetary body) that are moving into constellations. In astrology, it's significant when a planet enters a constellation/sign and even greater significance when it multiple planets entering a sign/s.
6/8 - Friday - Moon enters Pisces
6/9 - Saturday - Venus enters Cancer - Gann fan cross
6/10 - Sunday - Moon enters Aries
6/10 - Sunday - Mercury enters Gemini
Last time we had this many planetary events in a 4 day time period was during Consensus 2018 last month.
Next there's June 18th... as in 6/18... (Golden ratio anyone?) and this day is at the apex of the pennant that we are forming from our run up to 20k. Fun fact: Kepler characterized Harmonics Law on May 25th, 1618. Nice timing with that year, Keppler! Also, May 25th is when the Buddha's birthday is celebrated.
6/18--- Neptune Retrograde - I've been trying to understand how different planets could affect price action and I'm afraid I don't have enough experience to talk about Neptune retrograde in that regard. What I can say is that Neptune retrograde is a wake-up call to the delusional fantasizers. The big question is who is delusional; the bears about the price dropping or the bull greedy for the moon?
Gann Fan - so in a previous chart I published, about how hype 4/20 is going to this year has a Gann fan apex/wedge/crossing at 4/20. If you press play, bitcoin literally drove right into the wedge, continuing upward. It's not at cleanly depicted in this chart bc scale has things slightly off, but subsequently parallel to the 4/20 apex is a Gann fan apex at 6/18. What does that mean? mmmm, I'm counting on the Bearish 5 Drives harmonic to play out.
6/26 - Mars goes retrograde - This isn't looked as favorable but we shall see how it goes.
7/7 - Mercury enters retrograde zone - This should be daytrading- short term bearish.
7/10 - Jupiter goes direct - bullish. Planet of wealth, abundance, expansiveness goes direct is a good sign. When mercury went direct (4/15) we took off. 5/3 - Mercury left the retrograde zone and that day is associated w one of our double top/highs from the April bull run. We also have a Gann fan cross on 7/10 reinforcing the significance of that day.
7/13 - partial solar eclipse - historically a bullish event. Significance reinforced by a Gann fan crossing.
7/26 - Mercury goes retrograde - Bearish
7/27 to 28 - Total Lunar Eclipse - Bearish
I use astrology to find confluence in the story that's being told w price action. I am very much a novice and appreciate you hanging around to read the end. :)