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AUDUSD POSSIBLE SETUPSWe do not like to take un-calculated risks. The analysis really speaks for itself. However, we can possibly see a retest of the broken trendline (red trendline) and a continuation to the upside where we have our Daily/Weekly resistance zone. We can take short position from that position to our downside target of 0.7600 then 0.7545 around 180-210 pips. We can also take a long position on the retest of the trendline if bullish PA is presented. We can take the risk and enter a short position from current price but we have the risk of price reaching the daily/weekly resistance zone. However, we have placed a short position below 0.76100 just in case price does not extend further. We trap the trade. We do not chase them. ***TRADE AT OWN RISK***
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
GBP/AUD - SHORTMy view of GBP/AUD - as we can see we have respected a key level of 1.64300 on multiple occasions and currently we are retesting this resistance. 4H candles show lots of indecision and a possible exhaustion of the previous bullish run from recent lows of 1.62000. Daily TF also adds confluence with a doji formed on yesterdays daily candle. On the 1H TF it is clear that we are stuck between a price range of 1.64000 - 164300. A break and close below the neckline of 1.64000 on the 4H TF will trigger a short entry for me. However a break above 1.64300 will invalidate this short setup. For more trading analysis follow me on Instagram: Link in my BIO.
Short
by MitchellShoesmith
Here's the level to watch with Facebook(FB).The Technicals As noted in the above chart, FB ended the week in the red despite a great earnings report. Is this just a blip before the next new high? Possibly. However, I believe these are not attractive levels for initiating a long position. I will be watching the $110 level on the downside if it ever gets there as a POTENTIAL buy. The Quarter Per Yahoo finance, these are FB results. Adjusted earnings per share: $1.41 Revenue: $8.81 billion Monthly active users: 1.86 billion Daily active users: 1.23 billion % of ad revenue from mobile: 84% Via Bloomberg, here’s a quick snapshot of what investors were looking for from the social media giant: Adjusted earnings per share: $1.31 Revenue: $8.5 billion Monthly active users: 1.84 billion Daily active users: 1.21 billion % of ad revenue from mobile: 85% In % terms, here is how they fared vs expectations. Adjusted earnings per share: +7% Revenue: +3.5% Monthly active users: +1% Daily active users: +1.6% % of ad revenue from mobile: -1% They beat all the metrics save for % of ad revenue from mobile. They don't break down their % of revenue from whatsapp, instagram, and occulus or at least I could not find it. Safe to say whatsapp and occulus % would be tiny if any and monetizing instagram is still in the early stages. I will say, I hear more of my friends complaining about the number of ads shown in their facebook news feed. I read somewhere that FB will address this, though I could not find the article. Facebook and TV Per Bloomberg- "That means the next big technology prizefight isn't Facebook versus Google versus Snapchat, but the digital world duking it out against television. All of them have their eyes on the roughly $190 billion spent each year on TV commercials. If Facebook grabs just 3 percent of ad dollars spent on TV in the U.S., it would add more than $2 billion, or about 7 percent, to its annual revenue." Can we expect to see original content from Facebook in the coming years? According to Recode- "Facebook is starting to talk to TV studios and other video producers about licensing shows, with the hope of boosting the social network’s video efforts. The talks, which include discussions for scripted shows, game shows and sports, are being led by Ricky Van Veen, the College Humor co-founder who joined the company earlier this year." I get it, people like watching videos. Youtube has pushed into original content. I see the shows often when I open the app, but for some reason, I have never clicked on it. It will be interesting to see how Youtube original content does. In my mind, I have Netflix, Amazon, and maybe HBO or showtime. That is all my mind handle. Facebook has the money and the audience, I just wonder if they aren't entering into too many categories? I get the move to VR, it's a platform, where no dominant player has captured mindshare. Original content is different, everybody is either into it or getting into it. If they are going the original content route, I would not be surprised if they pushed into live sports. So, what's the trade? Every investor has different time frames. For me, I am in wait and see mode. Like I noted earlier, I will watching the $110 level if it ever gets there. If you found this added value to you, please hit "like" Thanks and have a good weekend. Caleb
NASDAQ:META
by CalebDismuke
2
$52.50-(A key support level for Starbucks).As I noted in the above chart, closing below the 100 WMA again is a troubling sign for the bulls. I am watching the 52.50 level. If that level goes, the 200 WMA is up next at ~47.50. The last time Starbucks fell below the 200 WMA was in 2007. It fell another 70% bottoming out around $4. Granted, that period was an extreme event and the company is more mature and in a better position today. I am in now implying it will fall 70% Just pointing out long it has been since the last move under the 200 WMA. Now, a look toward some data. Same store sales is slowing. See image below. assets.bwbx.io Jennifer Bartashus, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence notes- “Starbucks is really starting to hit the saturation point in the U.S.,” she said. “The question with that is how are they going to continue to grow same-store sales.” To achieve growth, it will mean growing same store sales at a better rate and pushing into new markets. Per Bloomberg again- "Starbucks has been trying to improve its food in the U.S. to lure more customers, especially beyond morning hours. This year, the company is adding fancier items to its menu, including Sous Vide Egg Bites and a gluten-free breakfast sandwich. To attract the on-the-go crowd, Starbucks also is expanding its snack-based meals called Bistro Boxes." In other words, they are expanding to other categories besides coffee(line extension). They are hoping to gain a bigger share of the customer's wallet while they are in the store. Will it work or could those resources better be used elsewhere? The jury is still out. I have no position in this stock but will be watching the levels noted on the chart closely. Let me know what you think. Agree/disagree? Would love to hear your thoughts. 2nd try, first chart was off:)
NASDAQ:SBUX
by CalebDismuke
$52.50-(A key level of support for Starbucks).As I noted in the above chart, closing below the 100 WMA again is a troubling sign for the bulls. I am watching the 52.50 level. If that level goes, the 200 WMA is up next at ~47.50. The last time Starbucks fell below the 200 WMA was in 2007. It fell another 70% bottoming out around $4. Granted, that period was an extreme event and the company is more mature and in a better position today. I am in now implying it will fall 70% Just pointing out long it has been since the last move under the 200 WMA. Now, a look toward some data. Same store sales is slowing. See image below. assets.bwbx.io Jennifer Bartashus, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence notes- “Starbucks is really starting to hit the saturation point in the U.S.,” she said. “The question with that is how are they going to continue to grow same-store sales.” To achieve growth, it will mean growing same store sales at a better rate and pushing into new markets. Per Bloomberg again- "Starbucks has been trying to improve its food in the U.S. to lure more customers, especially beyond morning hours. This year, the company is adding fancier items to its menu, including Sous Vide Egg Bites and a gluten-free breakfast sandwich. To attract the on-the-go crowd, Starbucks also is expanding its snack-based meals called Bistro Boxes." In other words, they are expanding to other categories besides coffee(line extension). They are hoping to gain a bigger share of the customer's wallet while they are in the store. Will it work or could those resources better be used elsewhere? The jury is still out. I have no position in this stock but will be watching the levels noted on the chart closely. Let me know what you think. Agree/disagree? Would love to hear your thoughts.
NASDAQ:SBUX
by CalebDismuke
Is Under Armour a buy at (21.50)?Under Armor missed their revenue target after 26 consecutive quarters of at least 20% revenue growth. Since trading above $52.50 in 2015, their shares have fallen 60%, now trading under $22.00. This article from spring of last year sums up the "athletic wear" market pretty well. For me, I think this stock needs some time to settle down. The article speaks about saturation in the athletic wear market. At first Nike, Under Armour, and few others dominated the space. Soon though, other brands entered and stores started to private label their own lines. Prices have came down. So, is this just a cycle that needs some time weed out the weak hands? Probably. Most of the fundamental news I read is negative on this stock and clothing in general. Contrarian play? Maybe This company is currently worth 8.7 billion. Is that a reasonable valuation based on what we know? Possibly. Here is my thinking: Warren Buffet in his 1991 annual letter spoke about the d/f between an "economic franchise" and a "business". He stated and economic franchise arises from a product or service that (1) is needed or desired; (2) is thought by it's customers to have no close substitutes; (3) is not subject to price regulation. In contrast a "business" earns exceptional profits only if it is the low cost operator or if supply of its product or service is tight. He noted the later usually does not last and being the low cost operator can work if superior management is at the helm. So when we apply the "economic franchise" test to Under Armour what do we get using reasonable assumptions. (1) I believe their product is needed and desired. (2) I think some customers are loyal, but at scale I am not sure if that is true? (3) They cannot price their product aggressively. See the linked article. Competition has forced prices lower. To wrap up: I believe they have a strong enough brand that their products will be needed and desired in the future. Unlike some companies that entered the "athleisure" category, I believe it is likely they will survive a washout, if one comes. Is 8.7 billion a fair price to pay? This where investing is so fun. There is a range of outcomes over the long term, from going to zero(0% probability IMO) to being worth 100 billion(very low probability IMO) and a range of everything in between. I just ask this, is it a reasonable probability that this company will be worth more than 8.7 billion in 3,5, or 10 years. Yes, I think that is reasonable. Do you?
NYSE:UAA
by CalebDismuke
GBPNZD - LongPossible long set-up on GBPNZD. Recent Daily double bottom at weekly support zone of 1.6850 - which is historical lows for price. Daily break and retest of the zone with a hammer close on 31/01/2017 signalling bullish intent of price Daily 61% fib retracement and support The monthly close was also today and while bearish it shows a strong lower wick rejecting this weekly support of 1.6850 Target is placed around the Daily level of resistance at 1.7700 (initial fib extension will be monitored closely on the daily and my stop will be trailed
Long
by Erudite_Investments
GBPUSD SKACAPITAL Looking short on this pair as the previous day candlestick closed as a strong bearish marbozou. However, on the open of the market we can expect a pull pack up to the 4 hourly 50-61.8% level (1.23500). If price breaks above the bearish trend line we could expect price to move up to the 61.8% daily level (highlighted by red box). As traders we must understand nothing is guaranteed. Therefore its about understanding the key levels whilst adopting key money management strategies. As you could see we have 3 trade setups. THESE ARE NOT CONFIRMED! These trade setups are just ideas, we would await PA confirmation around these levels. If they do look bearish then these tradesetups would be set up accordingly.
Short
by SERGENAYTUG94
Frontier communications(FTR) nearing important supportTechnically Speaking Price is coming up on the support zone b/w 3-4. The R/R seems to favor a long position at these levels. A good target would be the 2015 high print around 8.50. Risk For me, I always think about risk, not as volatility, but the probability of a permanent loss of capital. You can never know for sure what the probability is but I think most people can come to a conclusion about what is most likely. Two links to get an idea of the companies troubles: 1. seekingalpha.com 2. www.fool.com What to do? How much of your portfolio are you willing to risk to see if this trade will play out in your favor? 1%, 2%, 5%? Only you can answer that questions.
FLong
by CalebDismuke
Can Halliburton clear resistance at 47.50?Technically Speaking HAL found resistance right where you would expect, the pivot at 47.50 and the 200 WMA. A clear move above that level and there is plenty of air until the 2015 high above 72.50. A rejection could see a move back toward the 2016 low prints. Of course, the outcome will depend on the companies earnings vs the current expectations. Earnings come out on 10/19 as noted on the chart, so proceed with caution. Fundamentals HAL currently sports a div yield of 1.55%-https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AHAL&ei=I5MFWKG2IoGmmAGr-r_wAQ Here is their div history: www.nasdaq.com As always, trade your plan. Nobody knows what the future holds or how a companies stock price will react to any given set of earnings or events. All we can do as traders is pick our spots, limit risk, and take the trades we feel like we understand and have an edge. That's it. My favorite quote "Superior investment results can only stem from a better-than-average ability to figure out when risk-taking will lead to gain and when it will end in loss. There is no alternative". Howard Marks. Check his memos out, they are a great read. www.oaktreecapital.com
NYSE:HAL
by CalebDismuke
DollarYen PennantPennants are often considered continuation patterns, a break-out of which often yields a major advance. Coiling is a common feature in market patterns as changes in buying and selling intensity yield to the outcomes of excess demands or supply. Given patterns such as pennants are considered to have some predictive function, there is a reflexive propensity for them to work, at least insofar as they are widely observed... In shorter macro time horizons, with fewer people to observe patterns and a greater instance of false-breaks due to a preponderance of algorithms and so forth, I take these entries with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, it is a logical basis upon which to add, at least on the basis of my priors.
Long
by PrometheusCHT