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Technicalindicators

How to select effective indicators for your strategyNot all indicators are useful: most are not, and some are downright misleading. Previous posts and studies, such as LuxAlgo's(1), determined that effective indicators need to: 1) produce data to support the trader's decision-making process, not substitute it with automated strategies, 2) produce non-redundant infos. But how do you select indicators in practice? Here, I share my own step-by-step process to select effective indicators for your strategy. My approach is to use a two-stages process: 1) Expansion, 2) Contraction. This is the same process that happens in our brains when they develop, first there is neuronal and synaptic expansion, creating lots of new connections that are not necessarily efficient, then there is contraction, which weeds out useless, redundant or ineffective connections. Here, the idea is similar. ## Expansion: try all the indicators you want ## In the first stage, you just try any indicator that sounds like an interesting idea. The way you select the indicators is up to you, either it can be because it sounds like a good idea, or because it's in line with your main strategy (eg, a volatility indicator when your strategy is contrarian). Whatever criteria you choose, you should: 1) Remain open to new types of indicators potentially outside your main field, as they can broaden your horizons, 2) Remain skeptic of any claims of effectiveness until you test the indicators and see tha they work for yourself (in the second stage: contraction), 3) Study the indicator to understand how it works and why it works. Don't just blindly use an indicator without knowing what it actually represents precisely, otherwise you will get bit by its limitations and false positives at some point in the future, likely when you will have a lot of money on the table to lose! Once you have selected a set of indicators, or if you have reached the maximum number of indicators you can add in your TradingView plan (as it happens to me!), then you can go to the next step to weed indicators out. ## Contraction: drop everything that isn't directly useful to you## In the second stage, we will extensively test the indicators for ourselves, on the assets we are interested in, and in others as well, to "field test" them and see if they work in our strategy. Indeed, trading and investment rely on a balance between collecting enough infos and keeping it simple enough (KISS principle(2)) to support our systematic decision-making process, without information overload which can produce decision paralysis. The contraction/filtering process is more involved than the first stage, because you have to do the manual, dirty work of testing, it takes time, but this is the only way you can see whether the indicator work as intended and that they work for you. No two people will use the same indicator the same way as I explain in another post (3), so bear in mind that some indicators that may not work for someone else may work for you, and inversely an indicator that works for someone else's strategy may not for you, so the popularity of an indicator is no indication of effectiveness. Here is a step-by-step outline of my process, feel free to add more steps depending on your needs: 1) Signal-to-Noise test: test on weekly and daily. If the indicator can't be reliable, can't produce good signals with low false positives and high true positives on these long timeframes that are much less noisy than shorter timeframes, then they are useless. Some people claim that there are indicators that work exclusively on lower timeframes, I am not trading such smaller timeframes although I can trade down to 15min, so your mileage may vary, but I remain yet to be convinced that this is true. 2) Redundancy test. If you already found a good indicator that works reasonably well for you, then compare any new indicator to this "best" indicator as a benchmark reference point. This will allow to weed out indicators that cannot provide new, non-redundant data. For example, in the chart of this post, I study correlations, which I compare against the signals generated by my RSI+ (alt) indicator which I consider one of my most reliable. Of course, the signal is of a different kind, but it still provides me a reference point as to whether the correlations can provide me with an additional edge or whether I should just stick to using only the RSI+ indicator. In practice, if the new indicator(s) can provide new, non redundant data, as shown by slightly different predictions in different scenarios or maybe a bit earlier, then great, I keep them. If not, for example the indicator does provide reliable info but it would lead me to take the same decisions at the same time, or worse, later than my best indicator, then I remove it. 3) Generalizabiliy test. Test on multiple markets, on mutiple timeframes, to check generalizability: if it doesn't generalize, the model is overfit on one target market's history, and this likely won't even work for the future if this same market, ie, this is an issue often encountered for models made specifically for bitcoin or ethereum. 4) Misleading test. Use bar replay, to check how the indicator behaves in realtime: does it sprout a lot of false positive in realtime, or is it as useful and predictive, or better, in real-time than when used for historical bars? Or worst being repainting indicators rewriting the past, such as pivots or zigzag, they look super accurate aposteriori but it's only because they cheat (see tradingview pinescript fage about that), using bar replay will help you detect them 100% of the time. Bar replay is one of the best tools you have to test indicators, don't underestimate it. Yes, it's time consuming, but it's well worth it, and you'll become quicker and quicker to use it over time with experience. For more information about the different types of repainting indicators, there is an excellent article in the PineScript documentation, it's worth reading even for non-coders(4). 5) Grouping and intra-class comparison. Finally, group indicators on the same study, so you can quickly answer a question eg about volume and volatility, or about market cycles, etc by checking the adequate chart. Otherwise, if you mix indicators between different charts, it will take you longer to analyze and compare the various signals. Also this allows to compare similar indicators between them to see if they really are useful, non-redundant. For example, in the chart above, it's a Correlations grouped study, so I added almost exclusively correlations indicators; while the delta-agnostic and (pearson) correlation coefficient both provide non-redundant infos, Spearman correlation and Kendall correlation indicators are redundant, although they shouldn't (they should capture non-linear relationships, whereas Pearson can only capture linear ones), their results aren't any different in practice with the pearson correlation coefficient in terms of significant signals they generate that would change my decision process, so we could drop two out of these three correlation coefficients, which would unclutter our chart without losing any data. ## Wrapping-up: continually refine your indicators ## At the end of the day, it's important to continually try to adapt to the markets. Indicators can continue working, while others may fail, or in the end you find them too difficult to use in practice with your strategy. Your strategy may also evolve over time, and so your indicators should too. Don't ever feel attached to your indicators, you can revisit and question their utility at anytime, and you can go through the steps above again, and drop any indicator at anytime, even if they were useful before, what matters is whether they are still useful now. There is also a next step for those who are open to learn programming: creating your own indicators. Not so much to create unique opportunities, although they might, but to better understand the market. You should view indicators as a way to better understand some facet of the market, indicators answer the specific questions their authors wanted to find an answer for. So by using indicators of other authors, you are reading the solutions to others questions. But you can also form your own questions, and then the next logical step is to develop your own indicators to find your own answers. And hopefully share them under open-source, so that we can all learn together (and this likely won't impact your profitability, to the contrary, as I explain elsewhere!(3)). In summary, we can quote Bruce Lee, who described a very similar process for his mastery of martial arts as he taught his own named Jeet Kune Do: "Absorb what is useful, reject what is useless, add what is essentially your own." I hope this post was useful to you, and if you have an idea of a criterion or a step you use to select indicators that I didn't list above, please share it in the comments! Enjoy, Trade Safely! Tartigradia (1): Technical indicators: what is useful and what isn't , by LuxAlgo (2): en.wikipedia.org (3): Why my indicators are open-source, and why yours should be too , by Tartigradia (4): Repainting — Pine Script™ v5 User Manual v5 documentation
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by tartigradia
MINA : Upto 75% Profits in The Mid Term.Pair : MINA/USDT Mina just broke out from the recent downward trend on the 1D chart. A falling wedge pattern already formed and a breakout is on the process. The current candle stick formation looks very bullish but needs to close in such a good shape to confirm the bullish break out and a reverse move. Indicators are also looking good so far the MA and MA both moves below the price which is a bullish sign. Volume looking so good after a good amount of entry in the past 48 hours. If you have to take some risks and get some profits here are the major distribution selling price levels as follows. #Accumulation Entry Area : 0.56 usdt - 0.6 usdt 🎯Target 1 : 0.618 usdt 🎯Target 2 : 0.69 usdt Mid Term 🎯Target 3 : 0.74 usdt 🎯Target 4 : 0.80 usdt Stop Loss : Make a strict stop loss price level depending on the timeframe you are strategizing. Nathnael B. cryptotalk_et
Long
by cryptotalk_et
#AAVE : A possible 80% Profits in the MidTermAave (AAVE) has been on a bearish run throughout the year, with the price decreasing by around 85% in the first two quarters. The price of AAVE went as low as $45 in June, which was the lowest in almost 9 months. Nonetheless, after finding support in that area, AAVE started to increase. During the summer months of this year, AAVE increased by around 160%, indicating a reversal in the long-term trend. Still, the price encountered resistance at around $115, and it has been on the decline ever since that. Recently, the price of AAVE has been on the rise. In the last few days alone, AAVE has increased by around 30% considering the lowest price at around $64 on October 13, making it one of the best performers of the week. This increase shows that AAVE has penetrated the upper trendline of the descending wedge, indicating that the trend could reverse in the coming weeks. But before making predictions on how AAVE may perform in the short run, we must look through technical and fundamental factors that may affect the price of AAVE. Aave (AAVE) Technical Analysis As can be seen in the AAVE/USDT 1-day chart, the price of AAVE had a breakout of at least 10% in most exchange platforms, which hinted at a potential bullish reversal in the chart. While the long-term chart still remains bearish for AAVE, the recent price movement has significantly improved the market sentiment. AAVE traders were quick enough to withdraw funds due to the recent increase since the selling pressure has slightly increased. This created a resistance structure at $84 which is the 38% Fibonacci price level. Currently, AAVE is on the verge of retracement after the bullish candle creation on the 1D chart, other things equal. Fibonacci retracement levels of the recent price movement suggest that the price of AAVE could have strong support at 23.6% and 38% levels, respectively. Indicators The fear and greed index of the 1-day chart suggests that AAVE traders suggest that the index has slightly improved. There is still extreme fear in the market, however, given the current state of BTC and other altcoins. The RSI of a 1-day chart suggests that it has significantly improved recently. It is above 50, meaning that the buying pressure is relatively high and that there is space for growth for AAVE in the coming days. The MACD line of a 1-day chart is above the signal line and the baseline due to the recent increase in the price. The current momentum is bullish for AAVE, but the lines may soon converge if a retracement occurs. The 20-Day MA is below the current price of AAVE, meaning that the trend is now bullish, other things equal. The same applies to the 9-Day EMA, which could also act as a natural support to the price of AAVE if the latter retraces. Aave (AAVE) Fundamental Analysis Recently, Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, reportedly withdrew around $50 million worth of USDT from the Aave ecosystem and transferred them to a Poloniex-funded address. Because of that, the total supply of USDT in the AAVE/USDT pool has declined to around $250 million, which could be alarming to AAVE whales. To give a little more context on this, Justin Sun was banned by the Aave ecosystem after someone reportedly sent 0.1 ETH to his address from a suspicious wallet from Tornado Mixer. Many expected that this could have a negative impact on the price of AAVE since someone such as Sun is highly influential. To support this, Huobi Token has grown massively recently after it was announced that Sun is officially involved with the project. However, the price has instead increased recently. Therefore, this suggests that AAVE is simply not that affected by “big game” influencers. In other news, Aave is launching its own stablecoin known as GHO. GHO aims to solve the stablecoin trilemma of capital efficiency, price stability (collateralization), and decentralization. AAVE Price Prediction Based on this price analysis on Aave (AAVE), the price of AAVE could increase in the coming couple of weeks if not days due to the recent price breakout. We could expect the price of AAVE to aim for $115 and $147 in the coming weeks depending on the overall market trend, other things equal. Takeaways • Aave (AAVE) has increased by 30% in the last few days. • Recent AAVE price breakout hints at a possible bullish momentum for the coming weeks. • Justin Sun reportedly withdrew $50 million from the AAVE blockchain. • Aave is launching its highly anticipated stablecoin, $GHO. • AAVE could aim for $115 if not $147 in the coming weeks.
Long
by cryptotalk_et
BTC/USD - 15m - Swing Trading Analysis published on 10/14/2022Moon to Earth … it’s Cosmo 😃 again and I developed a brand new technical indicator for Swing Trading - the "STI". USE INSTRUCTIONS: - Wait for New Up or Down Trend. You may set two alerts accordingly (Alerts: "STI", New Up Trend or New Down Trend, Once Per Bar Close, Open-ended if you have TV premium). - Do NOT enter any trade yet! - In Up Trend wait for Down Crossover of Price with Signal Line I for Long Trade (Alert: Underlying, Crossing Down, "STI", Signal Line I, Once Per Bar, Open-ended if you have TV premium), or - In Down Trend wait for Up Crossover of Price with Signal Line II for Short Trade (Alert: Underlying, Crossing Up, "STI", Signal Line II, Once Per Bar, Open-ended if you have TV premium). - Set Stop Loss for Trade at Stop Loss Line I for Long Position or at Stop Loss Line II for Short Position. IMPORTANT: This must be done at Trade Inception or at least use Line Values from the Time you entered the Trade (as the Lines are repainting)! - Set Take Profit at two Times the Risk. - Wait for Price to hit either Take Profit, Stop Loss, OR occurrence of a Trend Change (Alert: "STI", Trend Change, Once Per Bar Close, Open-ended if you have TV premium). Close Trade. - If your Trade hit Take Profit you may wait for the next crossing of Price with the applicable Signal Line and enter a new Trade. NOTE: The Risk of Trend Exhaustion increases over time and a Trend Reversal will be more likely the longer the current Trend persists. Please use appropriate Risk Management and Trade Size to avoid any bigger losses. Enjoy !!! Not Financial Advice ... Use at Own Risk. If you have any questions, contact MoonrakerCrypto. Thanks and happy trading everyone!
FTX:BTCPERPShort
by MoonrakerCrypto
GME: T+69 is Back! Huge Upside! Hello everyone, Welcome back to yet another technical analysis. T+69 has only failed once and that was Friday, Jan 7th, 2022 and all the other times it was successful. Although I considered it a failure, we still saw huge volatility that day with a high of $40.08 ($160.32 pre-split) and a low of $33.13 ($132.48 pre-split). This cycle, historically, has been the most accurate and it looks like we're heading into another 69 baby! Are we going to see similar events to Jan 7th or are we going to see a huge upside the week of Oct 10th - 14th? Let's take a trip down memory lane and look at the last T+69s: After the events that unfolded on June 8th, 2021, Friday, Aug 19th-Aug 24th 2021: +50.55% Friday, Oct 29th - Nov 3rd 2021: +43.65% Friday, Jan 7th, 2022: (Depending on how you look at it) -17.35% Thurs, Mar 17th, 2022: (The week of RC and friends buy-in) +157.04% Weds, May 25th - May 26th, 2022: +71.23% Tues, Aug 2nd - Aug 8th, 2022: +49.22% Mon, Oct 10th - Oct 11th, 2022: ??? Analysis On the daily, it looks like we're heading into a death cross. The question is will this be another successful one or are we going to test it? Tiny gap to fill at around $25.42 and if we happen to fall we should see us filling another gap at $22.44 (visible on the hourly) and another fall below results in us touching a potential double bottom at $19.50. If successful, should we break the above resistance, we should see filling the gap at $37.30 and $40.27 and the off chance finally closing the gap that was left at $73. As always, not financial or sexual advice. I eat crayons for breakfast and can't read.
NYSE:GMELong
by SierrasTrades
8
USDCAD WIN WIN / HEDGING SHORTS Price on USDCAD is struggling to break above the resistance of 1.38000, with price looking weak again on the forth rejection. This is creating a right shoulder for a head and shoulders on the 4hr and daily chart. Strength coming back into the USD but the Canadian dollar holding ground for now. Ill be entering shorts with stops tight above the last few rejections to hedge against my original long trade. Hope you all the best for the week to come! let me know your thoughts.
Short
by jamison_fx
EURUSD - Fundamentals to shape next move!Sometimes its best to just stay away when we have news events, data releases or any other big fundamentals that can cause havoc in the market. I like to find a position and be in profit before any other influential impacts hit the market, if you siting in a trade near entry and something dramatically changes you can be left in huge drawdown or in a big loss, even slippage! Trying to open trades off the back of a data release is almost impossible to get any sort of consistency.. I still haven't got my short entry on EURUSD and I'm not just going to open a position for the sack of it, I trade off a strict plan and also encourage you guys to do the same! the market is risky and can eat your account up with a few mistakes, stay safe guys and good luck! ill be back on Sunday and hopefully have my voice back lol.
Short
by jamison_fx
3
BTC/USD - 15m - Swing Trading Analysis published on 10/05/2022Moon to Earth … BREAKING NEWS: I developed a brand new technical indicator for Swing Trading !!! It's called Swing Trading Indicator "STI". From NOW ON I will post lots of analysis and updates ... so pls follow and pls check back frequently ... It’s Cosmo 😃 again, so let's get started: Summary of the Analysis for BTC /USD (15 Minutes time frame) Trends: Short Term - Bearish & Long Term – Bearish Crypto Screener™ – 1 week frame – (by TradingView) Rating: SELL Technical Indicators – 1 week frame – (by TradingView & intotheblock): SELL - Summary: 11 Bearish ; 10 Neutral & 3 Bullish --> SELL - Oscillators: 0 Bearish ; 9 Neutral & 2 Bullish --> BUY - Moving Averages: 11 Bearish ; 1 Neutral & 1 Bullish --> STRONG SELL AI (Artificial Intelligence) by CENTRALCHARTS: SELL Multi Timeframe Analysis: - 1h (1 hour frame): positive - 4h (4 hours frame): neutral - D (1 day frame): negative - 7d (last 7 days): negative My Opinion: SELL - Bearisch under USD 22,812 Support @ USD 18,432 Signal Force (0-10): 8 = strong force Pls like and follow for updates and more analysis using this awesome Swing Trading Indicator ("STI") for 15m and higher Charts with Alerts for Long, Short, Stop Loss/ Take Profit Levels and Trend Changes. USE INSTRUCTIONS: - Wait for New Up or Down Trend. You may set two alerts accordingly (Alerts: "STI", New Up Trend or New Down Trend, Once Per Bar Close, Open-ended if you have TV premium). - Do NOT enter any trade yet! - In Up Trend wait for Down Crossover of Price with Signal Line I for Long Trade (Alert: Underlying, Crossing Down, "STI", Signal Line I, Once Per Bar, Open-ended if you have TV premium), or - In Down Trend wait for Up Crossover of Price with Signal Line II for Short Trade (Alert: Underlying, Crossing Up, "STI", Signal Line II, Once Per Bar, Open-ended if you have TV premium). - Set Stop Loss for Trade at Stop Loss Line I for Long Position or at Stop Loss Line II for Short Position. IMPORTANT: This must be done at Trade Inception or at least use Line Values from the Time you entered the Trade (as the Lines are repainting)! - Set Take Profit at two Times the Risk. - Wait for Price to hit either Take Profit, Stop Loss, OR occurrence of a Trend Change (Alert: "STI", Trend Change, Once Per Bar Close, Open-ended if you have TV premium). Close Trade. - If your Trade hit Take Profit you may wait for the next crossing of Price with the applicable Signal Line and enter a new Trade. NOTE: The Risk of Trend Exhaustion increases over time and a Trend Reversal will be more likely the longer the current Trend persists. Please use appropriate Risk Management and Trade Size to avoid any bigger losses. Enjoy !!! Not Financial Advice ... Use at Own Risk. If you have any questions, contact MoonrakerCrypto. Thanks and happy trading everyone!
FTX:BTCPERPShort
by MoonrakerCrypto
BTC/USD - 15m - Swing Trading Analysis published on 10/05/2022Moon to Earth … BREAKING NEWS: I developed a brand new technical indicator for Swing Trading !!! It's called Swing Trading Indicator "STI". From NOW ON I will post lots of analysis and updates ... so pls follow and pls check back frequently ... It’s Cosmo 😃 again, so let's get started: Summary of the Analysis for BTC /USD (15 Minutes time frame) Trends: Short Term - Bearish & Long Term – Bearish Crypto Screener™ – 1 week frame – (by TradingView) Rating: SELL Technical Indicators – 1 week frame – (by TradingView & intotheblock): SELL - Summary: 11 Bearish ; 10 Neutral & 3 Bullish --> SELL - Oscillators: 0 Bearish ; 9 Neutral & 2 Bullish --> BUY - Moving Averages: 11 Bearish ; 1 Neutral & 1 Bullish --> STRONG SELL AI (Artificial Intelligence) by CENTRALCHARTS: SELL Multi Timeframe Analysis: - 1h (1 hour frame): positive - 4h (4 hours frame): neutral - D (1 day frame): negative - 7d (last 7 days): negative My Opinion: SELL - Bearisch under USD 22,812 Support @ USD 18,432 Signal Force (0-10): 8 = strong force Pls like and follow for updates and more analysis using this awesome Swing Trading Indicator ("STI") for 15m and higher Charts with Alerts for Long, Short, Stop Loss/ Take Profit Levels and Trend Changes. USE INSTRUCTIONS: - Wait for New Up or Down Trend. You may set two alerts accordingly (Alerts: "STI", New Up Trend or New Down Trend, Once Per Bar Close, Open-ended if you have TV premium). - Do NOT enter any trade yet! - In Up Trend wait for Down Crossover of Price with Signal Line I for Long Trade (Alert: Underlying, Crossing Down, "STI", Signal Line I, Once Per Bar, Open-ended if you have TV premium), or - In Down Trend wait for Up Crossover of Price with Signal Line II for Short Trade (Alert: Underlying, Crossing Up, "STI", Signal Line II, Once Per Bar, Open-ended if you have TV premium). - Set Stop Loss for Trade at Stop Loss Line I for Long Position or at Stop Loss Line II for Short Position. IMPORTANT: This must be done at Trade Inception or at least use Line Values from the Time you entered the Trade (as the Lines are repainting)! - Set Take Profit at two Times the Risk. - Wait for Price to hit either Take Profit, Stop Loss, OR occurrence of a Trend Change (Alert: "STI", Trend Change, Once Per Bar Close, Open-ended if you have TV premium). Close Trade. - If your Trade hit Take Profit you may wait for the next crossing of Price with the applicable Signal Line and enter a new Trade. NOTE: The Risk of Trend Exhaustion increases over time and a Trend Reversal will be more likely the longer the current Trend persists. Please use appropriate Risk Management and Trade Size to avoid any bigger losses. Enjoy !!! Not Financial Advice ... Use at Own Risk. If you have any questions, contact MoonrakerCrypto. Thanks and happy trading everyone!
FTX:BTCPERPShort
by MoonrakerCrypto
IMPORTANT TO MOVE STOPS!! AUDUSD UPDATE (IN PROFIT)!This one playing out exactly as explained earlier as well as the other USD pairs I was looking at. I didn't take entry's on all pairs cause that would be exposing my account to to much risk from the same currency (USD). Price has now pushed down between consolidation range so I expect the support of 0.64500 to be tapped at the least (taking 30% profit on position), from there I expect a reaction but hoping to see this level break and create a new leg down..(long term). RISK MANAGMENT comes before anything!! Good luck traders hopefully everyone's having a good week so far!!
Short
by jamison_fx
1
AAPL Ascending Intermediate Trend Break Bear Market PlayDescription AAPL has had a nice run up following the upside break of its intermediate bear trendline (descending 2pt red line) on 24 JUN, forming its new intermediate upside trend (ascending 2pt green line) all the way up to its Descending Major Bear Trend (descending 3pt line) cemented on 30MAR. This week and the next will certainly end with a clearer picture for direction moving forward, but given current market conditions it is more likely that it should be down. SPY and DIA have seen similar intermediate moves, but have not made it to their descending major trend lines yet meaning a reversal is still far from being signaled, and this week will show how the IXIC behaves after having breached it on 10 AUG. It is still early in the Bear Market - geopolitical and economic risks have not cooled substantially to merit a major reversal in trend. Real inversion of the Yield Curve has only just occurred on 13 JUL and the trends are in for further inversion moving forward. Technical Indicators to signal the entry: Daily close below the intermediate trend accompanied by significant volume spike Major Trend Line rejection Downside break of the 168 - 171 Supply/Demand Zone Bear cross on MACD Technical Risk Factors: Golden Cross on 50/200 EMA Although a golden cross is usually considered a strong reversal signal, I am discounting this technical risk factor due to the 200 EMA remaining relatively flat in the early bear market. VIX downside break of Major Ascending Trendline on 4 AUG IXIC established over Major Bear Descending Trendline There is no real price target here as this is basically a trend trade - hence a longer dated Put - but there are take profit targets @ 156.5 , 137 & 130 . If all targets were met, advise a runner and potentially a roll down and out prior to expiration. Using a Long ITM Put here in order to: achieve a higher delta, maintain a conservative position, get long volatility while the VIX is low, and leave the downside open in case of a long, swift fall. Long Put Levels on Chart SL: 177.5 PT: Down the trend TP: 156.5, 137 & 130 *Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss The Trade BUY 10/21 180P R/R & Breakevens vary on fill. Manage Risk Only invest what you are willing to lose I warrant that the information created and published by me on TradingView is not prohibited, doesn't constitute investment advice, and isn't created solely for qualified investors.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by BarnardR