Nasdaq Bullish Entry - S&P500 has broken higher, which is great for the broader markets
- DJIA is up 2.57% already in 2023, if January closes higher, that bodes well for the rest of the year
- FTSE100 is racing ahead of everyone and everything that I follow, apart from the DAX(Ger40), mostly due to the weighting of the index towards Oil majors
- DAX is up >7%
- VIX is trading near April 2022 lows, now volatility or fear in the markets according to this asset
- US dollar is getting crushed
- Bitcoin is pushing back towards 20k
All risk indicators are pointing to a push higher in equities as the headline US CPI print today came in as expected and lower than the previous month. Core CPI notched up 0.1% so it isn't crystal clear that inflation is coming down due to the Fed's monetary policy. We also have a weakening US dollar as traders move into the safety of the US Treasuries, which in turn drops the yield of the 10-year note. US10Y is about to test the December 2022 low, and a close below would signal further downside potential. The eurodollar curve is massively inverted as are the US yield curves, signaling that the larger money markets are expecting something is up and that the Fed will have to change policy sooner rather than later.
The US has a new speaker and part of the concessions made was along the lines of not lifting the debt ceiling. This could have negative consequences before the new fiscal year starts in October, but is more likely to be a problem in Biden's final year, should we not get a bigger Federal Budget spending program.
For now, inflation is waning, which is obviously good news for any asset that was suffering under the rate hike cycle. eg. risk assets like Bitcoin and Nasdaq.
Levels on the Nasdaq I am watching include:
TP2 = 12570
TP1 = 12221
Resistance at 11605
With a hard stop at 11080
Technicalindicators
How to find strong Support and Resistance levels using MA.Hey Traders!
Above is a brief video in which i explain a simple way to find strong support and resistance zones using the moving average indicator starting from bigger timeframes to smaller ones.
i hope this video is useful for you!
let us know your questions in the comment section!
Joe.
#Crudeoil pullback at the support level.The price perfectly fulfills my last idea. The market fell from resistance zone and taken support at the given level. The price respected the support level and persisted itself at the support level. The market is pulling back after testing the resistance and impulse move. I expect growth from the support level .
NVDA Daily Price Predictions 2/9/23Following yesterday's yearly resistance, and pivots, we are looking to start taking a weaker bullish continuation. We opened above yearly res and continue to move forward with strong momentum. No Divergence to be seen either. I would not count on this bullish continuation 100% as we have had some pretty minor pullbacks following the recent head and shoulders and could still potentially retest the neckline. May be an optimal long position for macro/day traders.
BITCOIN: Did it can fly to 48 000$#BTCUSDT
as you can see at the chart in daily chart time-frame we have very important and strong support zone in 12/2020 price flew from this powerful support zone to 65000$ i think the scenario will be repeated dont's miss up this opportunity buy and hold it to the next targets at the chart
First target: 32000$
Second target: 40000$
Third target: 48000$
i expect there will be a correction move and i expect the price will fly to the target at the chart
About technical indicators overview show a bullish move MACD is showing bullish RSI showing bullish EMAs showing a bullish move Ichimoku cloud is neutral Fib retracement is showing bullish ZELMA is showing uptrend-move Parabolic SAR is bullish Accumulation distribution is neutral Awesome oscillator is showing bullish
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Bitcoin Price Target Options | Monday, February 6, 2023DAILY CHART TA
Coming up against a strong resistance zone at $23,000, bitcoin needs to hold the 38.2 fib level and stay above the 21 day MA to reach the supply zone at $25,000.
If the 38.2 fib level is breached and the daily candle closes, there could be a possible drop back down to the $21,300 range.
*Not financial advice. Just my take on things*
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EUR/USD: Markets Under Pressure After Strong U.S. Labor An earthquake in Turkey and rising U.S.-China tensions contributed to the unfavorable mood in the world markets on Monday morning.
The top platforms in Asia are dropping by 1.4%. The Japanese market stands out as an exception, rising 0.6%. Major U.S. index futures are continuing their downward trend from Friday, shedding as much as 0.4%. This morning, the nearest Brent crude oil futures are rising 0.2% and are currently trading slightly around $80 per barrel.
The non-farm payrolls from last Friday are the key point. In the first month of 2023, the U.S. economy added 517,000 new jobs, according to figures made public by the Labor Department. This is almost three times greater than the consensus prediction of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and double the amount from December (260 thousand).
Unexpectedly, the jobless rate dropped from 3.5 percent in December to 3.4 percent in January. 3.6% growth was expected, according to economists.
In accordance with forecasts, the average hourly salary increased 0.3% in January over December. The annual growth rate of hourly wages was 4.4%. (+4.3% y/y) The data were better than expected. It is important to note that the December estimate was increased; salaries increased at a rate of 4.8% y/y in December 2022 rather than the previously reported 4.6% y/y.
The report was undoubtedly credible. But given that January's results were biased by methodology, it seems we shouldn't pay too much heed to the exceptionally high employment growth numbers.
This month, the statistical office is changing a lot of things. However, the truth remains that following this jobs data, whatever concerns that some Fed policymakers may have had about the possibility of excessive monetary policy tightening should be significantly diminished.
The data from the report would have appeared considerably more persuasive if they had been available an hour before Jerome Powell's press conference on February 1 (the Fed increased the rate by 25 basis points to 4,5-4,75%). Powell expressed his opinion that the job market was still hot and imbalanced during the news conference on Wednesday.
And so we see: rather than the Fed attempting to calm pricing pressures by hiking rates, the larger picture suggests that the current situation of the labor market is in fact accelerating inflation rather than calming it down.
Regarding estimates from the money market, a 25bp rate increase in March is currently implied by the federal funds rate futures market 93% of the time (82% a day ago). A rate increase in the same range in May is 60% more likely than it was yesterday (22%). The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate drop by year's end is still being calculated by the swap market.
According to the current set of macrodata, the Fed has good justification for raising the rate in March by 0.25 percent to 5%. Let's just say that the market's steadfast denial of the Fed's warning that the rate could increase above 5% this year no longer appears to be a bluff on the regulator's side. The dollar is oversold, as indicated by the existence of strong technical signs earlier. Fundamental elements have now been added to them. Given the just released jobs statistics, the market's attitude toward hazardous assets appears to be excessively upbea
Technical Analysis:
Today it's presented a divergence on the H6 timeframe and the price seems to start a reversal.
Our indicator shows a Sell position in this lower timeframe.
US30 1HHey traders, in today's trading session i'm are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 33808 zone, once I will receive any bullish confirmation the trade will be executed.
USDJPY: Important Breakout 🇺🇸🇯🇵
USDJPY broke and closed above a major falling trend line on a daily
after unemployment, us data release.
Fundamentals are strongly supporting the dollar again and probabilities are high
that the pair will keep growing.
I expect a bullish continuation now.
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🛠️ Trading Tools Cheat SheetFibonacci Levels, Pitchfork, Fibonacci Arcs, Gann Square, Gann Fan, and Elliot Wave are technical analysis tools used in trading to identify potential levels of support and resistance, anticipate future price movements, and make informed investment decisions. These tools are based on mathematical calculations and relationships between price, volume, and time. They are widely used by traders to gain insights into market trends and make investment decisions based on past market data. However, it's important to note that these tools are not a guarantee of future performance and can produce false signals, so they should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and with a solid understanding of market dynamics.
🔹 Fibonacci Levels
A technical analysis tool that uses horizontal lines to indicate areas of potential support or resistance based on the Fibonacci sequence.
🔹 Pitchfork
A technical analysis tool that uses three parallel lines to identify potential levels of support and resistance and to anticipate future price movements.
🔹 Fibonacci Arcs
A technical analysis tool that consists of several curved lines that originate from two extreme points (high and low) and converge at the fibonacci levels.
🔹 Gann Square
A technical analysis tool that uses a grid to identify potential support and resistance levels and to predict future price movements based on the relationship between time and price.
🔹 Gann Fan
A technical analysis tool that uses diagonal lines to identify potential levels of support and resistance and to anticipate future price movements.
🔹 Elliot Wave
A technical analysis tool that tries to identify patterns in financial market data, particularly in stock market prices, which in turn can be used to make investment decisions. It's based on the idea that market prices move in predictable waves.
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📅 Daily Ideas about market update, psychology & indicators
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GJ - WEEKLY PROJECTIONSimilar to my previous post on the Monthly.
These are my HTF projections So obviously, there's not much detail on them but I am a swing trader and I like to project from the monthly downwards as there is a lot that is missed if you don't analyze from the monthly down in my opinion.
I have deleted the monthly fib because it clutters my chart but keeping this in mind you can see its reacted at the monthly fib and now, we are currently sitting at the weekly/daily fib to go bullish. Also - If anyone has ever told you that a 'head and shoulders pattern' is great for determining reversals, make sure you go get a lobotomy and forget it ASAP because they are one of the biggest Liquidity Raids/Price Manipulation setups you will ever find and rarely ever play out like your courses tell you.
Just like AJ - It looks too pretty and too perfect to continue as a 'Head and shoulders' into a downtrend. I would be very surprised if it did, and the only way I could ever see it doing that is if it has a massive liquidity raid and manipulates everyone out of the market before reversing and becoming bearish.
But - I never say never because anything is possible, and you have to always keep an open mind otherwise you will never make money in these markets.
At the moment - its looking like GJ is accumulating sellers because most sellers are taught to sell when they see a 'Head and shoulders'. I'm thinking it will temporarily trend bearish into the lower fib to remove liquidity first before it reverses to continue bullish after removing all buyers.
Don't forget that the weekly/monthly Fib has not been touched yet so I'm waiting for price to trend bullish to fulfill it. From there we have a few options but i will assess and adjust as the week goes on. It may trend bullish, hit the Fib and retrace to remove more liquidity and then either tank or continue bullish removing all sellers and also fill that imbalance to the left. Thats what i would like to see but it's way too early to tell.
:)
GJ - MONTHLY TIMEFRAME PROJECTION + ANALYSISPrice is now hovering in a Fib from the previous high on the Monthly TF. It has reacted to it and dipped but I'm not too sure how it is going to continue reacting for the time being. I only trade 1 or 2 pairs max at a time and GJ is one of them but i won't be entering until it breaks out indefinitely or shows me some kind of direction/bias.
It can either respect market structure and continue to make a LH and continue bearish or it can remove all liquidity and continue bullish (Which makes more sense).
It looks too pretty to be bearish - So I am favoring it to go bullish at some stage. Again - I'm not sure when but I have a couple areas that I'm waiting for it reach and give me confirmation at on the lower time frames (Haven't uploaded yet). And just like AJ It depends on the depth of the pullback and how much liquidity is sitting beneath price currently because its looking like the most cost-effective path for the banks to take price higher and remove all sellers.
Disclaimer: This is how I personally draw my charts and it's the first time I have started posting them. So, if there's not many drawings or explanations it's because i don't write them all out or draw them all out for my own analysis. I like my charts to be quite clean so i put as little on them as possible. :)
How to trade markets in both directions using true SMC conceptsHello Traders, in this post we aim to explain how we can trade the markets in both directions. Since this comes under the concept of liquidity, it is very logical to trade in both the directions of the market. Please pay attention to the annotations made on the chart.
Happy Trading
Team Lamda
BTCUSDTThe long-term downtrend line of the RSI has broken upwards on the weekly time frame. Do you think this trend can be considered a pullback to the broken level with a positive divergence?
Do you think we should react to the midline of the long-term descending channel from here?
Of course, there is still a high probability of seeing the $13,000 range, but what if we have an advance and again a downward trend!?!?
We would be happy to hear your comments
APEUSDTHello dear friends
On the daily time frame, the positive divergence of the RSI with the downtrend line has created a bearish wedge pattern for us. Until the $5.584 range is fully consumed, the bullish outlook is weak.
But if the range of $2.618 is maintained, we can hope for the completion of the wedge pattern.
On lower timeframes, the drawn bearish scenario is very likely. However, if the range of $2.618 is maintained, the possibility of a bullish scenario will also be strengthened.
We would be happy to hear your comments
SPX: Key SUPPORT + RESISTANCE levels to pay ATTENTION!• The index is correcting this morning, trying to frustrate yesterday’s bullish reaction;
• If it drops to the point of filling the previous gap at 3,790, the index will lose momentum, and it might be hard for it to recover again;
• In theory, the SPX has more upside left, at least to retest its 21 ema, or maybe the 3,911 again, but if it frustrates yesterday’s reaction, it might just seek the next support at 3,744 without any decent bounce;
• Only if the index breaks the 21 ema + 3,911 again it will convince me of a stronger bullish reaction. As long as it stays below these key points, there’s absolutely nothing interesting going on with it, especially with many other stocks doing better/clearer movements;
• Either way, I’ll keep you updated on this, as usual.
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