Germany's DAX Threatening Big Break Below Trend SupportGermany's DAX index has had a solid 2024 so far, but the shine may be coming off the bullish technicals as we head into the second half of the year.
After hitting a record high near 19K in May, the index has seen its gains stall out. Prices retreated to bullish trend line support in mid-June, and with bulls failing to drive a convincing bounce off that level, the DAX is now at risk of a bearish breakdown below that level of dynamic support. A breakdown could target the March/April closing lows in the 17.7K zone next.
Technical
JPY remains under selling pressureThe Japanese government is currently enjoying the weaker yen, as it helps boost the economy. However, this is only a short-term solution, as eventually, people's anger about rapidly rising prices might overshadow that government's positivity.
#audjpy EASYMARKETS:AUDJPY FX_IDC:AUDJPY
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How much more will the yen continue its devaluation?Still no support from the BoJ to stabilize their Japanese yen. But there is a reason for that...
#USDJPY EASYMARKETS:USDJPY FX_IDC:USDJPY
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All eyes on the PCE todayWe are waiting to see what's going to happen after the release of the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the PCE.
EASYMARKETS:EURUSD could one of those exciting pairs to watch today, but wait for the number to come out first.
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Will gold go for a bit of a larger correction?Looking at the technical picture of EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD , it seems that we might see some action to the downside. That said, before getting comfortable with that idea, some breakouts are still needed. For now we wait for the TVC:DXY reaction from the US GDP and PCE today and tomorrow respectively.
#gold TVC:GOLD
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If not GDP, then maybe the PCE will force it out of the squeezeWe are currently seeing EASYMARKETS:AUDUSD struggling to find a clear direction, as it continues to sit between two tentative short-term trendlines.
Waiting for the US GDP and PCE figures to do something.
#audusd
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SNB cuts again, CHF weakensThe Swiss National Bank came out again with another cut. This move weakened the CHF against its major counterparts.
#usdchf FX_IDC:USDCHF EASYMARKETS:USDCHF
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xauusd high volatilityFundamentals
Over the past six months, despite the Fed holding off on rate cuts, high US bond yields, and a strong dollar, both gold and silver have set multiple records. Even skeptics must acknowledge the impressive performance of these metals. Much of this resilience is attributed to sustained central bank buying, with further purchases expected to characterize the second half of the year.
Notably, central bank purchases are coming from various countries, enhancing gold's relevance as a reserve asset. Should the Fed and other major central banks initiate rate cuts, it would improve the overall sentiment for gold by year-end. Meanwhile, broader risks that could stimulate safe-haven demand remain, including the US presidential elections, escalations in Middle Eastern or Russo-Ukrainian conflicts, and potential volatility in globally bullish stock markets if their robust performance falters.
Can Gold Prices Continue to Rise Despite Repeated Pressure on Bulls?_1
Technical Analysis
Gold prices edged slightly higher on Wednesday, but remained below the critical resistance level of $2,345. While further upside is constrained, bulls continue to maintain positive momentum.
Technical studies on the daily chart indicate bulls have successfully held above the upper boundary of a triangle consolidation pattern, suggesting any price retracements in the short term will find support at this level. Meanwhile, the sideways consolidation is expected to sustain upward momentum from this level.
On the flip side, breaking below $2,324 could open the path to retesting support near the lower Bollinger Band around $2,306. A drop below $2,286 could trigger a stronger downward acceleration, as this would complete a failed swing pattern and an asymmetric head-and-shoulders pattern.
Overall, bulls face repeated pressure but the upward structure remains intact. We continue to anticipate opportunities for bulls to push higher before bears take control. Buying on dips remains the preferred trading strategy
Silver climbs back above the 30-dollar markLet's see if EASYMARKETS:XAGUSD can break the downside line and go further north. The first part of moving back above the 30-dollar mark is done, now we just have to overcome the downside line.
#silver TVC:SILVER
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Will Ethereum continue its correction lower?Currently, we are seeing some outflows of funds from the major crypto funds. Let's see if the slide continues.
#ethereum #ethusd CRYPTO:ETHUSD EASYMARKETS:ETHUSD
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Looking forward to the RBA decision on TuesdayWatch out for the RBA interest rate decision, which is coming out on Tuesday. Strong moves in AUD are possible.
#AUDUSD EASYMARKETS:AUDUSD
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S&P 500: All-Time Highs and Potential DeclineS&P 500 (SPX)
Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) has continued its bullish trend as anticipated the previous week, successfully reaching the projected target of 5450. However, it now appears poised for a potential decline.
This Week's Outlook:
The price is likely to experience a strong bearish correction as long as it trades below 5450, potentially reaching 5310 and 5260. However, the SPX is expected to consolidate between 5450 and 5260.
Bullish Scenario:
To initiate a new bullish trend, the price must close at least a 4-hour candle above 5450, targeting 5485. Sustained stability above 5450 would be required to confirm a bullish move towards 5550.
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price remains below 5450, it is expected to drop towards 5345 and 5310. A further decline could see the price reaching 5260.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 5450
- Resistance Levels: 5484, 5525, 5550
- Support Levels: 5372, 5320, 5261
Weekly Expected Trading Range:
The anticipated movement range for this week is between the resistance at 5460 and the support at 5260.
In summary, maintaining a position below 5450 suggests a bearish outlook with lower support targets in focus. Conversely, closing above 5450 could indicate a bullish reversal, aiming for higher resistance levels.
Our Previous Weekly Idea:
Fundamental Analysis::
Market Analysis: S&P 500 at All-Time Highs Amid Overbought Conditions
Overbought Conditions Aren't a Sell Signal:
A low VIX indicates an overbought condition, but it does not serve as a sell signal.
Bullish Momentum in the S&P 500:
The S&P 500 (SPX) is once again at all-time highs, with bullish momentum accelerating. Following a favorable interpretation of the consumer price index figures on Wednesday, the S&P 500 surged to new intraday and closing all-time highs.
Fed's Impact and Market Reaction:
Despite a somewhat lukewarm outcome from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting later that day, which triggered some sell programs, the overall buying momentum remained strong.
Positive Indicators Amid Overbought Conditions:
Our indicators have largely remained positive throughout this phase and continue to signal bullishness. However, overbought conditions are starting to appear, which is expected given the strength of the rally.
The yen continues to weaken as BoJ keeps rates unchangedThe BoJ came out this morning saying they will keep the rates unchanged. The market took that as a negative and we are seeing weakness in the yen across the board against all its major counterparts. Also, the weakness of the Japanese currency might continue, as long as indices are rising.
#usdjpy EASYMARKETS:USDJPY
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Is DAX showing something interesting for the bulls?#DAX EASYMARKETS:DAXEUR
DAX seems to be showing some positive signs for the bulls, however, we cannot get comfortable with that idea yet until we see a clear breakout.
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GBPAUD potentially Bullish continuationFX:GBPAUD broke out of the consolidation phase and doing a retest at the moment, are we going to see a bullish continuation?
I will wait to see if the retest is concluded and a bullish confirmation candle before going in for a long. #GBPAUD just might deliver on a 1:2 RRR.
European instability causing weakness in the euroAfter the EU Parliamentary elections, there is a rise of nationalism and protectionism among some individual EU states. The euro is feeling the heat, as EU stability is under threat.
EASYMARKETS:EURGBP #EURGBP
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An increased inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFBitcoin moved higher lately, breaking some key resistance barriers. This might have been initiated by the inflow of new funds into the Bitcoin ETF.
#BTCUSD EASYMARKETS:BTCUSD
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Is Litecoin showing signs of weakness? #LTCUSD EASYMARKETS:LTCUSD
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Is GOLD ready to slip lower?#Gold #XAUUSD EASYMARKETS:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
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Soybeans with an attractive technical set-up#Soybeans EASYMARKETS:SOYUSD
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GBPJPY near the current highest point of this year#GBPJPY EASYMARKETS:GBPJPY
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Let's see if it can climb back above the 78-dollar markEASYMARKETS:OILUSD
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