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NAS100 H4 | Tech under pressure?The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse from here to drop lower towards our take profit target. Entry: 14877.90 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level Stop Loss: 15132.35 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance that aligns above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level Take Profit: 14496.90 Why we like it: There is a swing-low support level Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:NAS100Short
by VantageMarkets
BTC - Looking For Trend-Following Buy Setups↗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. Bitcoin has been overall bullish trading inside the rising channel in orange, and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the channel. Moreover, the zone 27,000 is a demand zone. 🏹 So the highlighted orange circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue demand zone and lower orange trendline acting as a non-horizontal support. As per my trading style: As BTC approaches the lower orange circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
18
Longest Consolidation Period Since 00's | 1D, 1W ChartsAAPL Tech Giant vs The World AAPL has had a rough couple of weeks so to speak. With Treasury yields, to their new iPhone 15 overheating issue, there is much to be said about how this will playout in the long run for AAPL stock. Tech giants 12 month price-to-earnings ratio fell to 27 from 34, but APPL is forecasted to reach higher earnings in Q4 and beyond. September could be said to be a messy month for The Magnificent 7, but hopefully this is the calm before the storm. 1W Chart - Moving Average: Let me explain why this is such an important indicator. As you can see I have labeled the number of times AAPL ducked bellow the 50 D SMA, and after every duck came a rally to the upside, as soon as it broke through the average. This has been a 15 year trend. Now if it were to duck under the 50 D SMA again, after it already had, then this would be a very bad sign . Expect to be consolidation for God knows how long. - RSI: In every bull rally, I have shown the average support levels in the RSI, this is to make sure we are staying on trend. Now there is a red line that can be seen at 37, this indicates the lowest level the RSI has gone during a Bull Rally, if it were to break this level, we are now in the longest consolidation period since the 00's. 1D Chart - Moving average: Nothing fancy, it's there just in case, However, there are important levels that need to be discussed. There are 2 potential levels of support that AAPL needs to hit in order for it not to be considered consolidation. 164 and 157, with 157 being the lowest. Obviously not these exact same numbers but around this area is what we need to be looking at for a couple of days. - Stoch RSI: Is at a level where we can start breaking higher. Extra - Make sure to look at other Tech Giants and Treasury Yields for any correlation, as I did not have the time to include them in this Idea. Please let me know your thoughts in the comments, if you liked this Idea, give it a boost as it helps he out in making more charts for you guys!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by DenzelitoTrades
AAPL Targets Lower, Be SmartWe are at an interesting zone when it comes to AAPL. It's holding strong above the most relevant pivot low as you'll see in the chart. There is a chance that it can go up fro here so if you would like to long, I would place a stoploss elow the recent wick low. I would also manage my position size so the its a 1% risk on the trade it your stop was to hit. In the end, when zooming out, I think AAPL will retrace back to the bottom of the channel before pumping higher. There are a few key levels on the way dwn where we can expect a reaction and other trade set ups to play out. I'm currently long, anticipating a small bounce at these levels, with a 1% stop under the current wick low. Lets see how it all plays out. Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Navitility
MSFT Targets Bottom Of ChannelMSFT has been rejected from the top of the ascending channel and is looking to continue it's sell off to the golden pocket shown in the chart or the bottom of the channel. not shown on this chart but if you zoom into the 1hr TF or 4hr TF, you'll notice that it did perform a Swing failure pattern and it could move up from these levels but in the upcoming weeks i expect price to continue falling and have a nice reaction at the golden pocket or bottom of the channel. Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by Navitility
IBM Bearish Pattern!!!When taking a look at IBM, we an see that it has had an impressive climb over the past few weeks. This bullish climb is also printing a bearish reversal pattern. The rising wedge breaks out to the downside more than it breaks upward. With this being said and the price action approaching the end of the wedge, i would expect a drop from these levels to the next support around 5% down. If you end up taking a trade, use risk management so you don't lose more than 1%-2% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Calculate Your Risk/Reward! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NYSE:IBMShort
by Navitility
Analyzing Nasdaq-100 $NAS100 for Potential Double Top ReversalThe NAsdaq-100 (NAs100) index is currently displaying a classic double top formation on the weekly timeframe, signaling a potential bearish reversal following a robust 7-month rally. This surge was primarily propelled by a select group of companies utilizing AI technology. A Double Top pattern, characterized by two almost equal peaks, serves as a bearish reversal indicator. It suggests a potential shift from an uptrend to a downtrend, signifying a slowdown in buying pressure and an emerging influence of sellers in the market. To confirm a downtrend, keen observation of the critical support level at 14,500 is vital. A breach below this level would not only cross the intersecting trendline but could potentially prompt a 5% decline in the index in the short term. Such a move could mark the beginning of a bearish market sentiment. An intriguing correlation exists with NVIDIA's chart, which shares similarities with this pattern. Thus, it's imperative to closely monitor this tech giant's performance, given its significant influence on the broader tech sector and, consequently, the entire market. This information should be viewed as guidance and not definitive instructions. Thorough research and consultation with a financial advisor are essential before making any investment decisions.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by Blast910
SP500 - Consolidation before ATHI think that SP500 wont go much lower than where it is right now (Yellow mark), A consolidation for a month or two is more likely before testing ATH. In worst case scenario we could go down to the purple marked area, that is also where the 50% level sits from ATH to the bottom of 2022. A Break below that level would be devastating for the markets which would mean lower for longer. I see many are calling for a new low of this "bearmarket" which is not my opinion at all, I think we are in a bullmarket since the bottom 2022 and that the recession everyone talks about already happened. I see no reason for us to not break ATH within 6-12 months from here.
SP:SPXLong
by WealthNode
Micron Tech forming a flag?MU is very interesting to me at the moment, it's currently formed a flag and as you can see in the chart we have had a steady up trend across the board in both price, RSI and MACD. You could argue MACD has already broken out of a triangle type formation to the upside even. The risk-to-reward ratio is quite good, you can place a trade with a stop loss just under the flag and it gives you almost a 9:1 RR. With a more liberal stop loss, you are still looking at an R:R of almost 3:1. The main concern here is if the tech sector start lagging in general, this could easily lag with it. Which is why I am inclined to buy the breakout and not the flag formation. Cheers
NASDAQ:MU
by ChartDudes
ETH - The Bulls Are Pushing, However...❗️Greetings, TradingView Family! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. Just like BTC, ETH has been bullish the last couple of days and is currently back above the local support (1600.0). 📈 For the bulls to remain in control, it's crucial for ETH to surpass the last high in orange at 1663.0 . If this occurs, we can expect further upward momentum toward 1700.0 blue supply zone. 📉 Meanwhile, ETH would be stuck inside the new range between 1600.0 and 1650.0 📚 Always remember to follow your trading plan when it comes to entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! Remember, all strategies are good if managed properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
24
BTC - Break or Make Zone ❗️Greetings, TradingView Family! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on Weekly: Left Chart 🏹 From a macro standpoint, Bitcoin has been predominantly bullish, characterized by higher highs and higher lows. Moreover, BTC is currently positioned around a robust support level at the psychologically significant round number of 25,000. 📌 As long as the support at 25,000 remains intact, there is an expectation that the bulls may regain control at any moment. As per my trading style: I will be looking for bullish setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break, and so on...) to confirm the bulls takeover. 📌 However, it's worth noting that BTC still has the possibility of descending, potentially dipping into the range between 24,300 and 25,000, or even breaching this support level to the downside. on H4: Right Chart For the bulls to take over medium-term, we need a break above the last high in red at 26,450. Meanwhile, BTC can still trade lower, dive inside the green support or even break it downward. 📚 Always remember to follow your trading plan when it comes to entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! Remember, all strategies are good if managed properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
21
ETH - Medium-Term & Long-Term View 🔎Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on DAILY: Left Chart ETH is still overall bearish trading inside the falling channel in red. This week, ETH broke below the 1650.0 support zone, hence we are expecting further bearish movement till the 1500.0 support. As ETH approaches the 1500.0 support which is intersecting with the lower red trendline, we will be expecting the bulls to kick in. on H4: Right Chart In parallel, for the bulls to take over again, we need a break back above the 1620.0 resistance zone. For now, we wait ⏱ Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and why? 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
8
BTC - Bulls Are In Control - Short-Term ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. on H4: Left Chart As per my last video analysis, BTC broke above the 26,200 previous major high so the bulls took over short-term. Now we are expecting a continuation till the 27,400 supply zone marked in red. on H1: Right Chart The bulls will remain in control, unless the last minor low at 25,815 is broken downward again. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
27
Tech performance after peak valuation?Tech stocks have been soaring, but can this outperformance be sustained or will this artificial intelligence (AI) driven boom mimic the internet explosion and subsequent bust of the 2000-2002 period? Today, gains in the sector are concentrated in large companies like Nvidia and Meta, with year-to-date (YTD) returns standing at 225% and 148% respectively, subsequently causing the Nasdaq 100 to outperform the S&P 500 by around 25% YTD1, mostly due to its extra weighting in the Tech sector (~60% vs ~27%)2. This rally has been accompanied by a significant expansion in valuation multiples, specifically the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio. Particularly relevant for the Tech sector, the P/S ratio offers a way to evaluate companies that may not yet be profitable but are generating sales—a common scenario among new and innovative firms. For many in the Tech sector today, this ratio has soared to unprecedented levels. At the end of March 2023, Nvidia became the company with the highest P/S ratio in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices. It has only increased since then, reaching a P/S ratio of over 40, which is based on the trailing 12 months of sales. Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report, however, did forecast a large (60%) jump in future sales, so analysts are now pricing in future sales which brings down the multiple to 25 times expected sales over next 12 months3. This leads us to our key question: based on a historical sample of companies that have reached these valuations in the past, what are the chances that Nvidia can continue to outperform? The research in this piece will explore the implications of high P/S valuations, which will be defined as 25 or over (coincident with Nvidia’s price over expected sales), on future company performance. P/S ratios: from rarity to normality From the late 1960s to the early 1990s, it was uncommon to find a company with a P/S ratio over 25. When it did happen, it was one or two firms each year, and the percentage of the total market cap they represented was negligible. Today, high P/S ratios have become routine, especially in the Tech sector: is this the new normal? The tech bubble of 1999-2002 saw a drastic surge in companies with high P/S ratios. In 1999, there were 56 companies with a P/S ratio over 25, representing over 6% of the total market cap. The trend peaked in 2000, with 113 companies and over 10% of the total market cap. For most of the 2000s, several companies each year reported a P/S ratio over 25, making up a small but not insignificant portion of the total market cap. The COVID-19 era of 2019-2023 saw another surge in high P/S ratios. In 2020, there were 32 companies with P/S ratios over 25, making up 1.10% of the total market cap. The trend extended into 2021 when 44 companies contributed to 2.46% of the total market cap. This shift was partly propelled by an influx of high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs), as newly public companies often command high valuations. The momentum shows no signs of waning in 2023, with over a dozen companies already boasting a 25 P/S in Q1 alone—the majority of which are tech stocks. Dynamics of top P/S stocks Within the universe of the top 500 largest US companies by market capitalisation, 99 companies have reached the distinction of having the highest P/S ratio of all companies since the 1960s. Nvidia now holds this title today. The Tech sector takes the lion's share of the highest multiple stocks, representing 27.3% of the companies, followed by the Health and Energy sectors, accounting for 22.2% and 17.2% respectively. To understand the dynamics of the companies with the top P/S ratio, we examined their performance over various periods following the point at which they claimed the top spot. We scrutinised their returns over the subsequent 1, 3, 5-year periods, and until the end of sample or March 2023. An interesting pattern emerged. In the year following the point when a stock takes the top spot for the P/S ratio for the first time, these companies continued outperforming—on average beating the S&P 500 by almost 1.5%. But their momentum falters in the years that follow; within the next three years, their average annual return declines to -4.4%, and the five-year average annual return fell further to -1.5%. Notably, the markets were annualising over 9% over those next 3-5 years, so their under-performance versus the market was more than double digits. When we take the entire history of these stocks, their average return still falls short of the market by over 12% a year. Even when we break it down by sector, it seems as though once a company reaches the position of ‘top P/S’, it struggles to maintain its momentum and keep up with the market. Tech and Health sectors, those with the most companies appearing in this top spot, don’t even outperform in the short term, but have negative returns on average. Declining odds of out-performance Looking at all 2691 companies that have been in the largest 500 at some point, the tables below show how frequently companies reach a specific P/S threshold, and the odds that it will outperform the market in the next 1,3,5,10, and 20 years. For the 231 companies that have reached a P/S over 25, they only outperformed the market in the next year 21% of the time, with a median relative return of -36%. Over longer horizons, this percentage worsens, reaching 9% over the next 3 years, and 4% over the next 20 years. For higher P/S ratios (>40) it’s even less likely to outperform the market on all time frames. The odds become stacked against you having a winning long-term stock at these valuations. The market has seen a shift in recent years, with high price-to-sales (P/S) ratios becoming increasingly common, particularly in the Tech sector. Our analysis suggests that an overemphasis on high P/S stocks may falter in the long run, as it may prove difficult for these companies to sustain the rapid growth required to justify these valuations and continue their performance trajectory. Sources 1 Source: Performance data is referenced from Yahoo Finance, with YTD referring to 2023 through 21 July 2023. 2 Source: Respective S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq 100 Index factsheets, with current data as of 30 June 2023. 3 Source: Investor.nvidia.com/news/press-release-details/2023/NVIDIA-Announces-Financial-Results-for-First-Quarter-Fiscal-2024/default.aspx This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
NASDAQ:NDX
by aneekaguptaWTE
PayPal added to the watchlistShares of PayPal lost nearly 82% of their value since the top in July 2021, and judging solely by this metric, one could consider the stock cheap. Nonetheless, there is more to it. In 2022, PayPal saw its revenue increase by 8% on a yearly basis and transaction volume grow by 16%. In addition to that, the company processed 22.3 billion payments and $1.36 trillion in total payment volume, with active accounts rising by 2% YoY to 435 million. However, its operating margin dropped by 10% and net income by 42% (using GAAP accounting). In the first quarter of 2023, the company delivered better results compared to the first quarter of 2022, with net revenue growing 9% YoY, operating income by 41% YoY, earnings per share by 62% YoY, and net income by 56% YoY. As for the second quarter of 2023, the company reported a further increase in net revenues by 7% YoY, operating income by 48% YoY, and earnings per share by 414% YoY. In this quarter, PayPal generated $1.029 billion in net income compared to the loss of $341 million a year earlier. Based on some of the fundamental improvements and cheap valuation, we think PayPal is growing increasingly attractive and worth watching out for. However, we would like to emphasize that the stock keeps making lower lows and lower highs. Thus, entering the trade is still quite risky. One alternative to approach this situation is to wait for a price to break above the upper bound of the channel and place a long entry there with stop-loss below the bound. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of PayPal and its losses since the top in July 2021. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:PYPL
by Tradersweekly
5