TWTR Short!As you all know, TWTR has been in a pretty steep down trend for about the last 6 month. Nothing right now is really telling me a reversal is coming, especially with the way the entire market has been preforming in 2022. However, I don't like trading based off trends alone. So, I have identified a continuation pattern with the bearish rising wedge above. One of my favorite patterns to trade but remember the importance of setting entry, targets, and stop losses!!
Good luck!
Not advice, just speculation (:
TECH
Alibaba Longterm Investment PlanHey Trader,
please see my idea on the Alibaba stock, that is currently giving us an amazing opportunity to invest.
This target is purely based on technical knowledge and this chart is more for myself in order to track my progress with this stock.
This is no financial advice,
RT
AI - C3AI - i am guessing a 100 million buyback likes low pricesSo do I. I think the crowd says it's too early the crowd says it's too late. Buy your time. I have time on this one and they are collecting the best group the best contracts. Their AI will be a competitor if not acquired by the overlords.
AAPL: Next few months in my uneducated opinionI have had the blue lines drawn out since around April or so, and I have now gained to confidence to showcase my work.
I believe very soon AAPL, and many other stocks, will be hit with some bearish sentiment (whether around anti-trust or inflation, I do not know).
This is my idea for what will happen:
-Short term AAPL will hover around the red circle and follow the green line I drew.
-AAPL will hit a new ATH (around the EOY rally).
-AAPL will then trickle off down a bearish slope to find a new support, below any of the levels we have seen this past year.
Hopefully stonks only go up, but this is my bearish outlook on the tech powerhouse known as Apple.
The U.S Bubble Pop Of 2022 - And Japan? TLDR: The market is about to likely crash, in a much needed and healthy correction of capital placement in various industries and businesses. Why? Look no further than the Japanese Stock Crash of 1989, and see its similarities.
In 1988, Japan was on the verge of becoming one of the worlds greatest economic super powers. Its monetary policy had allowed for historically low interest rates and investors had created a housing bubble caused by liquidity. Japan's economy was a prosperous tank, and nothing seemed to be slowing it down any time soon (despite cries from numerous, increasingly impatient market gurus that the opposite was true.) Companies grew, exponentially, without the innovation or competition to match such growth. Inflation was at an all time high, and the housing market was completely inaccessible to young people (sound familiar?) In fact, the economy was so well, that Japans index, Nikkei, saw gains of ~ 30% year after year -- 5 years in a row (A total of 900% in the previous 15 years!) At this point in history, Japan was the leading manufacturer for new innovations in the tech world (Walkman, VHS, CD's, DVD's, INSTANT NOODLES, all from Japan). This boom in emerging new tech was clearly reflected in the markets. In fact, at its peak in 1989, Sony casted one of the largest acquisitions ever! The company paid $3.4 Billion for Colombia Pictures, despite have little earnings. This was move was out fear and speculation, as Sony wanted an edge on its competitors in the film tech world (Comparable to the historic Microsoft/ Activision acquisition perhaps?)
History shows that inflation is great for equities, until the government is cornered and has to take it seriously!
That is exactly what happened. This story was short lived, as it all came crashing down in 1989 and 1990. In 1989, Japan had elections and switched its form of power. A new political and economic policy entered, and when this new administration began tightening its policy to a more conservative standard (to fight ever rising inflation), the markets felt it. In just two short years, Japans speculative Nikkei market came crashing down 60% (it still hasn't fully recovered at 40% from its all time high, 30 years later.) Investment firms and corporations who used their capital to speculate in investments (which the public assumed would not lose their value) were forced to exit their equity exposure and risk at much lower prices.
Simply put, shareholders and venture capitalists had too much faith in these emerging markets and newer systems. Who could blame them? The past several years, the market was outperforming any investment in recent times. However, they were so comfortable and prideful, they had forgotten the risk of high rising equities and investments (this risk was compounded by greed, causing excessive and easy margin borrowing. We'll get more into this later, in another post.)
So, what is the lesson and how can we learn from this to prepare?
Just ask the Japanese. In 1998, Japanese technology was booming so much, it caused a surge of euphoria that investors did not want to miss out on. This euphoria compounds until it can no longer be maintained, confidence dwindles, and the market is hit. They've learned the lesson that in times of high deviation from the mean, it's important to exercise a healthy level of caution. This can be done by investing in real cash-flowing investments that have stood the test of time (commodities, land, gold, to name a few) and by sitting on a nice stash of cash (although, be careful, INFLATION!) This way, you can deploy your cash when the market is at a discount and become a gazillionaire. (I'll touch base on other ways you can make outstanding profit in a potentially bearish economy, in another post.)
As always, this is just a historical example. History never repeats itself, but it often rhymes like a rapper. The conditions we are in today are different in many ways, but by finding the similarities and drawing parallels, maybe we can prevent ourselves from being turkeys. (More on turkeys in a future post)
$NXST: COVID / Tech Hangover?This one may be a bit risky but valuations are below the historical average and there's is some possibility that the divisions we've been seeing over COVID vaccines leads to a more local-focused population. People getting back to what's real and the issues that actually affect them in order to recalibrate to a sense of normalcy. If there is a tech hangover, I believe you'll find it priced in here first. XLC has been slippery though so we'll see how this plays out.
Kroger stock is investor's safehaven in a volatile period.Hi everyone,
Today I want to raise an interesting topic of stock market sector rotations. NYSE:KR is a great example to demonstrate that.
Since late November broad risk assests have been selling off. When investors see the rise in volatility and sell their tech stocks, where do they put their money?
They reinvest their money into low risk assets.
NYSE:KR stock recently fired off a signal for a great buy opportunity .
That's because Kroger represents Consumer Defensive stock sector and money has been flowing in from all the risk assets selling.
And indeed, we can see that since November 22 stock gained around 25% in price.
Now it is making all time highs, while all major indexes are nowhere near their tops.
As the cycle continues, money will outflow from the stock, which will cause it to retrace back.
But do not forget that Kroger is an established business with decent earnings and a long history of dividend payments.
It won't crash like tech stocks tend to do.
Instead, it will retrace to around 40-43 level.
And when the tech recovers and we reach peak of bullish euphoria once again, just buy some Kroger stock .
Trade wisely and good luck!
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Disclaimer!!!
This is not financial advise
QQQ Put Credit SpreadI believe tech will remain strong, and this trade also has a large margin of error.
Opened for a 0.40 Credit.
Looking at the chart, this trade lines up perfectly with a support zone, in addition QQQ is still trending upwards on a quarterly basis. This is a bit of a reversion trade in the sense that I am taking advantage of the pullback to collect adequate premium at a low delta short strike ( 0.14 or 1.4 STD).
This trade in combination with the XLE trade from yesterday has shifted my portfolio from Delta neutral to a small long market bias.