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Tdsequential

BTCUSD 1 hourHello, The green 1 on the TD sequential setup phase looked promising when it went above the green 9, indicating that we could accelerate the 13 countdown phase to the upside. Unfortunately, this candle was also a perfect gravestone doji. Candle shape overrides TD sequential. We are still above the cloud, however, the baseline of the ichimoku crossed the conversion line, indicating the close of the long. The 50h MA provided perfect support and the 128h MA is providing very strong resistence. If we can consolidate at current level, we can start attacking the 128h MA, brake it to the upside, and flip it from resistence to support. Best regards, Alexandre Simões
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by alexandrejosesimoes
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 280)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634 Previous analysis: “I am still neutral / in a no trade zone however I am starting to lean slightly more bullish.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 | Short XRP:BTC from 8710 sats Patterns: Potential down trend | Hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,370 | R: $3,600 BTCUSDSHORTS: Pulling back but wouldn’t call that a short squeeze. Watching to see if it turns prior down trend into support Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0518% Short term trend (4 day MA): Close above and turning up = bullish Medium term trend (9 day MA): Close below, trending down and acting as resistance = bearish Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish Overall trend: Bearish, showing first signs up reversal Volume: Nothing impressive Candlestick analysis: Solid bullish candle that confirmed the reversal dojis Ichimoku Cloud: Today it was brought to my attention how much more effective the cloud can be with traditional settings by my boy David Puell a/k/a @kenoshaking. I must say that I agree so far. There is currently a C Clamp with the Kijun-Sen lining up with my long term MA and the Tenkan-Sen lining up with my medium term MA. May not mean much to you but is eye opening to me since they are both illustrating the same trend and resistance levels. Makes me think about applying principles of Consensio to the Cloud. Was also just commenting on how useless the cloud becomes when markets are moving, and that doesn’t seem to be the case with traditional settings. TD’ Sequential: G1 coming off a r8 Visible Range: 1 month lookback shows high volume nodes from $3,600 - $4,400 Price action: 24h: +3.3% | 2w: -12.1% | 1m: -44.6% Bollinger Bands: MA is trending down and waits at $3,875 Trendline: Starts at the top of 11/29 and connects to the top of the current candles wick Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Bullish Parabolic SAR: $4,243 RSI: Broke back above 30 still in nice bull div Stochastic: Double bottom buy. View this as a much better signal than normal. Incoming on 3d is an even stronger signal. Last Day Rule: Setup day for bulls is $3,214 | Setup day for bears is $4,440 Summary: It can be frustrating when things are so neutral. However this is a great time to practice patience and potentially focus on other markets. I called a top in the S&P 500 last Friday and I am extremely interested to see what happens next week. Furthermore some alts continue to be very tradeable. There was an entry triggered today on XRP at 8710 sats and that has immediately started moving in my favor! Bullish Case High volume reversal candles confirmed with today’s candle. The stochastic is very bullish. The daily Ichimoku Cloud (traditional settings) has a C Clamp. The TD’ Sequential just had a price flip after a red 8. The daily RSI is in a very significant bull div’. Bearish Case Potential new down trend forming that the current candle is wicking off. It is also in confluence with horizontal resistance and the 9 MA which is full bearish. I am not considering a long until there is a daily close above $3,700. Even then I don’t think I will be in love with the risk:reward.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
1
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 278)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019. Previous analysis: Was very surprised how even it was. Made a bullish and a bearish case Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short ADA:BTC from 954 sats | Short LTC:BTC from 0.00778 Patterns: Hyperwave | Parabolic curve (4h) Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,200 - $3,311 | R: $3,464 - $3,552 BTCUSDSHORTS: New all time high Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.1344% Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bearish cross and trending down Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Bearish as it gets Overall trend: Still bearish as it gets Volume: Big, next 24 hours are very important. It will either bounce off that volume indicating that it was oversold. Or it will turn the bottom of the body into strong resistance Candlestick analysis: High volume doji that has confirmed Ichimoku Cloud: Useless TD’ Sequential: Daily r7 and weekly r4 indicate more room to the downside Visible Range: Didn’t quite fill the gap Price action: 24h: +3.48% Bollinger Bands: Didn’t quite touch the bottom band Trendline: Turnt into a parabola Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): Parabolic SAR: $4,314 RSI: Looks like it is throwing back to the neckline of the h&s while in a bull div’ Stochastic: Posturing for a buy Last Day Rule: For bulls the setup day is $3,206 | For bears it is $4,397 Summary: Two days in a row where I am as neutral as can be. There are a number of indicators that can be interpreted a couple of different ways and none of them of giving me any confidence about where we are heading next, outside of the most important. Bearish Case Consensio is fully bearish. The more I learn about Consensio the more I am learning not to bet against it. If I would have listened to the rules then I would still be in my short from ~ $6,300. Instead I closed out around $4,000 and even tried opening a long. I am going to be completely revamping the daily update coming soon due to how much this experience has taught me about recognizing trends and then following them above all else. The daily and weekly TD' Sequential also show more room to the downside. I was also viewing this parabolic pattern as very bearish and a potential indication of upcoming capitulation until I posted it in Tyler Jenks hyperwave Telegram and was quickly corrected by a trader that I have a lot of respect for. Bullish Case “Parabolic moves are characterized by unsustainability. They are quite fragile and tend to break in the opposite direction.” -David Puell a/k/a @kenoshaking At first I saw the price turning prior support into resistance and posturing for a big move. Now I am inclined to agree with David. Furthermore we are looking at high volume reversal candles on a number of large cap coins. BTC’, ETH’, LTC’, EOS’. That really, really made me want to close the rest of my shorts and open another long. However, I am making improvements to my stop loss strategy and sticking to a new rule, which is never betting against the short term trend. EOS’ is a great example of my new approach to stop losses. I was deep into the profit on a perfected daily 9 and really wanted to close out. Instead I trailed my stop to 50% of the prior days marubozu (ex: if extended range candle / marbozu then draw fib on the individual candle and place stop at 50% point. This should be slightly above the 4 day MA. If it isn't then make sure to adjust the stop). In regards to betting against the trend: if I want to go long (like I do off the confirmed high volume reversal candle) then I must wait for a daily close above the 4 MA.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
4
4 Hour Chart Throwing Off TD Sequential Buy SignalsI'm slowly adding little bits here and there long because this could be the bottom of the congestion zone right before it goes much higher. TD Sequential completed a nice 9 count right as it completed a triangle leg so if we are going higher this is probably as good a place to get long as there will be. Stop on the chart at 3428 needs to be respected, if it does blow lower it could be headed for 2k, so there's not much point in having a stop above the psychological 3500 level.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by mljones
Symmetrical pattern on 4 hour chart - breakout coming soonThe 4 hour chart shows a symmetrical pattern of triangles which usually means the congestion pattern is nearing the end of its life and a breakout is coming soon. It could go either way, I am hoping it's up but if it turns out to be down I am going to be looking get out of my long and start looking at shorts. The 4 hour TD sequential count is almost to 9 and is on a red count which means it could definitely break upward very strongly from here.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by mljones
Volume Not Convincing - No Trade YetToday did end sort of doji like with most of the range being wick but it didn't really have much volume to it. I'm looking for a high volume churn doji day where the bulls and bears really pour a lot of money into the markets but can't move price anywhere. That will mark where there is real conviction and the bears are in danger of entering positions where their stops are in danger when the market moves higher. Today was not such a day and so I'm just going to wait it out, possibly until the TD Sequential count gets to 9 again. It's on 4 now so within a week there should have been a day which gives an entry.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by mljones
I am bearish BACThe market is dropping. All my previous ideas (SPY, IWM, DIA, .....) have been featuring this drop. However, BAC has a quite different chart compared to those so I guess I will post this one for reference, since we are having a big j confirmation red candle today. I think we are on wave 5 down. the target is the red box. I will look for a finished setup 9 and then a complete sequential 13 to call the bottom for this drop. Stop loss at yesterday's high. Stay safe, traders!
NYSE:BACShort
by kidze
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 273)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: Expecting 1-4 month bounce due to the TD Sequential on the 31d chart, along with short term trends turning bullish Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812 Patterns: Peter Brandt labeled this in i h&s and I can’t say I disagree. 4h symmetrical triangle. The 1h c&h from yesterday’s post failed to confirm. Now it looks like it could be forming a down trend Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4.046 & $3,875 | R: $4,181 BTCUSDSHORTS: Shooting star at resistance + close below 4 MA Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.0715% Short term trend (4 day MA): Closed below and trending down Medium term trend (9 day MA): Close above and trending up Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Trending down at $5,239 Overall trend: Clear no trade zone for me due to short and medium trends disagreeing Volume: Continues to decrease as we consolidate FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Bearish doji Ichimoku Cloud: Daily Tenken-Sen & Kijun-Sen are hovering right around the 33 MA | 4h continues to hold as support TD’ Sequential: Daily r2 = r1 Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 and finding resistance Price action: 24h = -3.94% Bollinger Bands: MA is coming down fast. Now it’s at $4,486 Trendline: Higher lows on the daily could be the start of new trendline Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bearish Parabolic SAR: $3,546 RSI: Failed to get oversold on the weekly Stochastic: Bullish recross Last Day Rule: Waiting to trade above $4,384 for trigger day Summary: It is starting to look more and more like we will pullback for a retest of $3,750. The higher volume that we saw in the area last time along with the daily parabolic SAR lead me to believe that we will double bottom before bouncing, something like what was outlined in day 270. I like the risk reward of a long in that area. Profit target would be the 33 MA, which is expected to be around $5,000. Stop loss would be slightly under the parabolic SAR at $3,524 for a 5.53:1 reward to risk ratio. It is entirely possible that we continue to fall from here without getting a bounce, however I do not like the risk:reward on a short at these levels and I am going to pass on the sell signals in hopes to re open ~33% > the current prices.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 272)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “I am still expecting a retest of $3,750 support before getting a bounce.” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 | Long LTCBTC from 0.00812 Patterns: 1h c&h Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,900 R: $4,250 BTCUSDSHORTS: Hanging man + shooting star at trend and horizontal resistance Funding Rates: Longs pay 0.01% Short term trend (4 day MA): Barely closed below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Flattening out nicely Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,319 and trending down Overall trend: Long term is very bearish. Short and medium and turning bullish. With the close above the 9 MA I expect the 34 to get retested Volume: Weak buying volume around half of the MA FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Bearish marubozu closed on the monthly Ichimoku Cloud: 4h acting as clean resistance TD’ Sequential: 31d chart is on a perfected 9. It has been brought up in Tone’s chat that this is preferable to the Monthly. It closes on Dec 7th. This mornings rally topped on a perfected 9 (1h). Visible Range: Nobody wants to talk about the enormous node at $1,000 Price action: 24h: +5.03% Bollinger Bands: If you don’t want to talk about the node at $1,000 then you definitely don’t want to see the bottom band on the 31 day chart. Trendline: Broke trendline didn’t quite get retested. Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) bullish | On the other side of the token the 31 day chart is threatening to close below the 33 MA for the second time ever. Last time was Jan 1, 2015 Parabolic SAR: Daily is at $3,511 RSI: Weekly is bouncing from 30. We we so close to getting oversold and capitulating. Stochastic: 31d is entering oversold territory Last Day Rule: Yesterday was the setup day, think I missed that yesterday. Trigger would be trading below Nov 30ths close. Summary: While analyzing the longer term charts I got a little sad. It looks like we were very close to finding a bottom and now I have started to change my outlook significantly. The main reason I say that is because we did not capitulate and now I am expecting a bounce that could take 1-4 months. I think this bounce could be a lot sharper than most people expect and that is because I’m expecting a major breakdown in alts. A flight to safety could pump BTC back above $6,000 before it eventually creates a new low below $3,500. I’m not saying this is what I expect, I am saying that this is what I am prepared for over the next 1 - 4 months. Trading against the trend is extremely dangerous, so if I don’t get my ideal long entry then I will have no problem passing on it and waiting to re enter my short positions. The risk:reward is not attractive on a long at all right now. The target I would use is the 33 day MA. It is at $5,300 but will probably be closer to $5,000 if we retest it ( moves down every day). The tightest stop loss I would use is the daily SAR at $3,513. The way I see it the risk:reward is 1:1.18 and I do not put my money at risk for those odds even when I’m trading with the trend. Now I should probably explain the LTC long. Not it's not a typo, it's actually a sweet set! I trade the daily chart and the 9 & 33 MA's are getting a golden cross while today closed above the 4 MA. It also appears to be breaking the bear trendline which is a pretty reliable signal in and of itself.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
13
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 271)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: "Now I am expecting / watching for a throwback to retest the bear trendline for support. There will be significant support from $3,600 - $3,750" Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 Patterns: Watching for double bottom / higher low Horizontal support and resistance: Finding support at $3,866...will it create a higher low on the 4h? | R: $4,020 BTCUSDSHORTS: Forming a hanging man at resistance Funding Rates: Longs received 0.1742% Short term trend (4 day MA): Looks like it will close below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Looks like it will close below Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,424 Overall trend: Bearish Volume: Today’s selling volume did not completely overwhelm the prior three days buying volume FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Confirmed doji by trading below the low of yesterdays candle Ichimoku Cloud: Has re entered 1h cloud and found support at the bottom. 4h cloud held as resistance TD’ Sequential: 4h r6 indicates 12 hours left to the downside. Daily g3 < g2. Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 and finding resistance Price action: 24h: -6.12% Bollinger Bands: MA is at $4,825. Top band is exactly in line with 200 day MA at $6,601 Trendline: Watching for throwback to test prior resistance for support Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Parabolic SAR: At $3,447 RSI: Daily is testing 30 for support Stochastic: Diverging in bullish manner, showing plenty of room to the upside Last Day Rule: Breaking down $3,439 would be setup day for longs Summary: The price has found support at the 33 MA (4h) over the past 12 hours. Now the question is: “will we create a higher low and then go on to make a higher high?” I don’t think that is going to happen quite yet, for a few reasons. First is the 9 MA turning down on the 4h chart. It should act as strong resistance and appears to be posturing for a death cross. The other reasons why I do not expect a higher low / higher high from here is due to the 1h chart. The 200 MA is in a strong bear trend. The 33 MA rolled down and is posturing for a death cross with the 200. The price is below both of those MA’s and appears to be pulling up and into a death cross. Therefore I am still expecting a retest of $3,750 support before getting a bounce. The TD’ Sequential is on a red 6 (4h chart) and that indicates another 12 hours to the downside. Hopefully tomorrow morning we will get a perfected red 9 at the confluence of support from: horizontals, broken trendline and TDST level. As the price of BTC’ dips it could be providing a good opportunity to short alts. Most are bouncing towards resistance looking like a cat on it’s tenth life.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Sawcruhteez
6
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 270)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: "I will be watching for a bullish crossover with the 4 and 9 MA along with a breakthrough of the daily Parabolic SAR as final confirmations to enter." Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 Patterns: Broke through bear channel. Trigger day on Peter Brandt’s last day rule Horizontal support and resistance: S: $4,068 | R: $4,257 BTCUSDSHORTS: Breaking through the trendline line. Within a whisker of triggering my alert at 36,000 Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.1271% Short term trend (4 day MA): Made bullish crossover with 9 Medium term trend (9 day MA): Still trending down with price above = neutral Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Trending down at $5,432 Overall trend: Long term is firmly bearish. Medium is neutral. Once it flattens / trends up then short term trends will be bullish. Volume: All green volume (buying) is less than the major selling volume. Biggest volume spike was on Nov 20th and the bottom of that candle is at $4,343. Therefore there should be significant resistance as the market makers look to exit positions from 11/20. FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $4,056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Long legged doji kept me away from long that I was planning on. Ichimoku Cloud: 1h cloud is fully bullish. 4h cloud is thick and currently being tested for resistance. TD’ Sequential: G2 briefly traded above G1. If you took that entry then TD rules would put the stop below the G1 or below the prior R9. Visible Range: Testing high volume node from $4,000 - $4,600 Price action: 24h: +2.03% Bollinger Bands: MA at $4,847 Trendline: Would really like to see a throwback to the bear channel at ~$3,700 before bouncing (mainly because that would provide a low risk long entry) Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Was fully bullish. Has starting to flatten out and is threatening to turn down. Current candle finding resistance from MA and recent death cross with the 9 indicates an exhausted bull trend to me. Parabolic SAR: At $3,447 | As soon as we brokethrough the SAR we quickly pulled back. Wasn’t expecting that action. RSI: 1h has bear div Stochastic: Diverging in bullish manner Last Day Rule: Trigger day occurred on today’s candle when it traded above yesterday’s high ($4,343) Summary: I was planning on entering a long today if / when the green 2 traded above the green 1 which is also when the daily SAR was violated. I wasn’t at my desk when that occurred and I didn’t have a stop order in place. Both were fortunate for me because the price quickly retraced below resistance and formed a doji. Even though there was a bullish cross with the 4 and 9 MA’s I decided to pass on a long entry due to the doji at resistance. Now I am expecting / watching for a throwback to retest the bear trendline for support. There will be significant support from $3,600 - $3,750 and that is where I am hoping to build a small long position. The 1h chart agrees with that outlook and makes a pullback in the next 24 hours look likely (see daily trend above). If we do pull back to $3,600 - $3,750 and find support then we would be primed to create a double bottom / Bulkowski Big W pattern. That is my most likely outcome for the next month and I intend to position myself accordingly. If we continue to rally from here then I am okay with missing out on this bounce and I will start making plans to sell the bounce. If we fall to $3,600 and do not find support then I will take a stop in the $3,450 area.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by Sawcruhteez
4
Scale In Plan For Knife Catching TradeMy initial small scale in was much too early on this trade. I have an average fill of 4354 and have had to sit through a couple days of heat because I didn't wait for range compression after the TD sequential 9 count. However my target was far enough away that I could have a stop that was far enough away to ride through the end of the dump and still have a reward/risk over 1.5. Because it was a knife catching trade I only scaled in with very small size in case it didn't work. Now that the trade has more confirmation I am looking to add to this in the wick zone between 3921 and 3662. That will give an improved RR of around 4.8. If it doesn't hit the wick zone again and heads back to the 5900 target then I'll just take profit there. I am not looking for BTC to moon, in fact I will be looking to short again from the low 6k region. If I do get filled in the wick zone I will use a supertrend style stop to tighten risk once the overall trade is somewhat profitable.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by mljones
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 269)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “This is a clear no trade zone for me and I will leave my small orders set at $2,700 - $3,000” Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 Patterns: Broke through bear channel and currently testing it for support Horizontal support and resistance: $4,000 is expected to become support | R: $4,346 BTCUSDSHORTS: Found resistance at the down trendline. Actually surprised that it didn’t pull back much harder from this last pump. Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.2686%! That is almost 1% ROI per day for holding a long on BTC at these prices... Short term trend (4 day MA): Price close above = bullish Medium term trend (9 day MA): Price close above = bullish | Watch for it to flatten and then roll up. Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Trending down and waiting at $5,500 = Bearish Overall trend: Closing above the 9 MA indicates that a return to the 34 MA is to be expected. Volume: If this pump continues then I will be watching for volume to decrease as price rises to provide confirmation of dead cat bounce. FIB’s: (Using top of Nov 12th and bottom of Nov 25th) 0.786 = $,4056 | 0.618 = $4,558 | 0.5 = $4,909 Candlestick analysis: Bullish extended range. 4h spinning tops. Ichimoku Cloud: Daily Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen waiting at $4,930 - $5,100 | Watching for 1h cloud to turn into support. TD’ Sequential: Currently on a 4h r9. If daily G2 can trade above the G1 it would also break the SAR. Visible Range: Surprised / disappointed that we didn’t fill the gap before pumping. Means that price bounced before my buy orders filled. Price action: 24h: +8.81% Bollinger Bands: Daily MA is right in line with daily Tenkan-Sen at $4,930 Trendline: Broke through 4h bear channel and currently testing it for support Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Bullish Parabolic SAR: Very, very intrigued by the fact that this pump did not breakthrough the SAR after getting about as close as you can get. RSI: Back above 30. Expecting a return to 50 before more down. Stochastic: Starting to diverge in a bullish manner after a couple false signals. Last Day Rule: Setup day today. Breakthrough of $4,354 would be trigger day and that would be potentially be in confluence with daily green 2 above a green 1 and a parabolic SAR break through. Summary: Love how precise the parabolic SAR has been over the last two candles, perfectly calling the top of each. With the close above the 4 & 9 MA I would be looking for long entries over the next 24 hours by setting orders on the 9 MA. However the SAR holding as resistance has given me a good reason to hold off and wait for further confirmation. If we can breakthrough the daily SAR then that would also be in confluence with the daily TD Sequential which is currently on a green 2 that hasn’t been able to trade above the green 1. It would also be the trigger day for Peter Brandt’s 3 day rule. BTCUSDSHORTS’ being at resistance and paying ~ 20X the normal funding rate is a strong indication that we will see a squeeze. I still think that a bounce to $5,000 - $6,000 is highly likely and will be looking to capitalize on that move. I will be watching for a bullish crossover with the 4 and 9 MA along with a breakthrough of the daily Parabolic SAR as final confirmations to enter.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Sawcruhteez
2
Doji + Trend Bar At End Of TD Sequential 13 Count - Maybe BottomI just added a little more to my long position that I started at around 4300. This recent doji + trend bar combo looks like it could be a turning point. TD Sequential ended a 12 bar count and volume does show a pretty decent amount of buyer coming back in. I am looking to add much more heavily in the wick area over the next week or so. This is 3900 to 3650. My stop is the same at 3428. I think a target where it tags the old 6300 is very realistic because if it picks up steam upward the shorts will panic and send it higher through the low volume area on the volume profile created by the dump out. Once up there I will be looking to short. I will use TD sequential for that again but this time also wait for range compression with a doji after a 9 count being my entry signal.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by mljones
Doji At End Of TD Sequential 12 Count - Bulls Showing PresenceStarting to see some range compression on the day chart and a doji just formed which might mean the bears are running out of steam. The TD Sequential count almost made it to 13, the day bar today had yet to finish but it may be the first 1 count in the bull direction in a long time. That is if it can close above the close from 4 days prior. This is the first trade I've ever done using TD Sequential and what I've learned is to wait for range compression AFTER a 9 or 13 count before jumping into a trade. A doji or morning star or something similar is probably a good combo.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by mljones
2
Using TD-D-Wave To extrapolate future Bitcoin prices TD-D-Wave(by Tom Demark) is similar to Elliot-Wave Theory but lessens the subjective "calls"/"changes" to wave counts done by most Elliot-Wave practicioners by implementing minimum requirements as far as candle counts (much like baseTD Indicator). Won't go too far into the rules in this series of posts but encourage people to poke holes in this analysis where valid and for Elliot-Wave traders to share their current "counts". TD-D-Wave can be used with Open, High, or Close. I used close for these charts and it's recommended in most material I've read. This post will be the bullish hopium on Weekly Timeframe and I will either make more posts going into the bearish scenarios or just update underneath this one. This chart shows that we topped in Dec. 2017 on a completed Wave 3 and ARE STILL working our way through a corrective Wave 4. I have Wave-1 Qualification @ 211.85$ occuring early November 2015. Wave-1 closing @ 310.55$ in July 2015. Wave -2 closing @ 228.89$ in August 2015. Wave-3 closing @ 18,953.00 in December 2017. Yeah, absurdly long-time for a Wave-3 BUT WE NEVER completed a valid Wave-4 and WE NEVER re-traced under Wave-2 low close. Until we re-trace on a closing weekly basis under the marked Neon lines on chart ($228ish), I think this entire Wave Sequence is still valid. Since we have a completed Wave-3, we don't have to use the Wave-1 rules for projecting potential Wave-5 Targets. using Wave-3 conservatively...Wave-5 should target $30,524.43 in next BITSTAMP:BTCUSD bull run. (we've also gone well past conservative re-trace targets for Wave-4 already). Next posts will paint the bleak short/medium term bearish cycles we currently find ourselves in (all inside this OVER ARCHING wave 4 macro correction).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Duffy08
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 267)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis: “Scaling into Bitcoin under $4,000 with ~15% - 33% of your net worth could be the best decision you have ever made. And if it isn’t then the risk is worth the reward." Position: Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 | Short LTCBTC from 0.00752 | Short EOS:BTC from 0.0008057 | Short XRPBTC from 0.00009434 Patterns: 4h bear channel | (Referring to Peter Brandt’s Last Day Rule) Watching for setup day to indicate that a bounce is coming - which would require a daily close > $4,112 Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,500 | R: $3,800 BTCUSDSHORTS: Almost triggered my alert at 36,000 but not quite. Confirms that there is still room for another leg down to the $2,700 - $3,100 area. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0961% Short term trend (4 day MA): Close below after testing above. Now entire candle is below Medium term trend (9 day MA): Bear and gaining momentum (coming down at a sharper angle) Long term trend ( 34 day MA): At $5,650 Overall trend: Bearish af’ Volume: Seeing some very significant volume at this price level. Not nearly enough for a bottom but plenty for a bounce. FIB’s: (Start at $1,000 and connect to ATH’) 0.886 = $3,164 | 0.786 = $5,805 Candlestick analysis: Last two daily’s were darth maul / long legged spinning tops. This is a good indication of a shakeout before a bounce. Ichimoku Cloud: Daily shows big resistance above $5,000 TD’ Sequential: Two days ago we got a red 9 and that failed to provide a bounce. Now we are on a red 2 that is threatening to fall below red 1. Visible Range: Broke down the bottom of the high volume node (HVN) at $3,877. Refilling the gap below is to be expected. Next HVN = $3,077 Price action: 24h: -6.25% Bollinger Bands: Bulge with price sticking to the bottom Trendline: 4h bear trend waiting at $3,990 - $4,100 | Bottom of the channel held as support at $3,500 Daily Trend: (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend) Parabolic SAR: At $4,353 (right in line with trendline) RSI: Finally starting to see a small bull div’ Stochastic: “I’ve fallen and I can’t get up!” Last Day Rule: Watching for close above $4,112 for setup day. Summary: There are a number of indicators showing a bounce on the horizon. Funding rates are high for shorts, volume is much > average at this price level, the prior two daily candles closed long legged spinning tops (aka darth maul candles). The Stochastic and RSI also indicate oversold conditions and the TD’ Sequential recently had a perfected red 9. However i still think that we are going to see one more leg down before getting a bounce and potentially seeing a bottom. We broke down the high volume node on the VRVP and there is a gap below that needs to be filled. The red 9 failed to provide a bounce (so far) and now we are on a red 2 that would fall below a red 1 at $3,522. The stochastic is stuck at the bottom. The price is still sticking to the bottom Bollinger Band. Furthermore it would give us a chance for proper capitulation. People are getting nervous now, but they are not throwing in the towel. If we selloff to $2,700 - $3,000 over the next day or two and then get a high volume hammer / dragonfly then I will be ready to call a bottom. Until then I am looking to short alts vs BTC and I am preparing to buy back spot BTC (time horizon is > 2 years). Orders remain set at $3,000.1 and $2,718.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Sawcruhteez
9