TA
Bitcoin Bull Scenario to f up all the bearsEveryone is so sure that we are going lower, this would be the perfect storm to fake everyone out and head higher.
Here I drew one possible scenario that could play out. It doesnt mean it will happen, but it would nicely trap all the bears if it did.
Make sure you know when youre wrong and protect your capital!
GL
Revisiting my theory on GME FTDs creation through TTTHello everyone, Chem here..
Earlier this year along with the help of copious amounts of information on Reddit. I discovered that it is super blatant that TTT (ProShares Ultra Pro Short), seemingly spikes strongly into GameStop run ups. Overlaying the charts has allowed me to view and observe perfect symmetry between the two.
My theory and ideals on this entire topic stands. If you wish to read my extremely detailed ideas and rant topics then feel free to somewhat educate yourself.
Kenny G, ain’t no stoppin’ me.
Cant stop. Wont stop. GameStop.
Just sold my car for more shares, I bike to my chemical warehouse job where I work 80 hours a week at. I’ll inhale cancerous products 24/7 just to fuel GME fractional amounts if it means cell one day. You give me power Kenny G. Thanks you
Check out my other great topics about this same idea.
GME to the moon
Not financial advice.
Also I’m 100% on my calls so far, in terms of success, if that means anything to you analytical people.
ES could catch a bounceA few factors in this trade:
✅ Friday showed a nice bounce off the 3853 support level
✅ Bullish divergence on the MACD and RSI daily charts demonstrating seller exhaustion
✅ Wonky inverse head and shoulders and descending triangle could play out.
Two price targets on this one with a defined stop at 3842 (giving that 3853 level some room to breathe). Hoping we can get up to fill the Weekly gap on the futures charts, create another lower high, and continue with the macro downtrend.
BTC: STRONG TA: WHY THIS CAN BE THE BOTTOMBitcoin is one of the best coins we ever have seen in history, but also the best coins get breakdown trends and recovery as the markets go up and do wn.
It's hard to predict always the Bottom, but with some study, we have a high chance to be right.
BTC did breakdown today from the 22800 level and the reason for this breakdown is that stock markets that did show a breakdown trend
Bottom study
There is a high chance that between 20600-2800 is the BTC bottom, which means that BTC after this can increase to higher targets.
What after happened is to study at that market time.
BTC can have a new confirmation for uptrend at 21500, what after can bring THE BTC price with time to 24K
Further 22400 and 23300 are important targets for BTC in case of an increase.
These 2 points are volume points.
WHERE I THINK BTC GONE MARKED BOTTOM! Around 14k by march 2023! I have also taken in mind that the feds gonna increase rashes. On the chart we got increasing volume and thats really bad. Falling wedge pattern, but i want to see a new touch on the support and resistance line to increase my bias for this pattern. In the my on chain analysis i think 14k is a huge support for btc and where both my technical and on chain -analysis match each other. (Made this one to look back in march 2023 and see if I called the bear marked bottom or not lol(:)
ETH hot our taget buy zoneAs per previous call We have hit our consolidation target. My order didnt feel by a few dollars, so i bought a smaller position when we broke out of 2 minute falling wedge. I will take profit at ~1650 just to be safe.
Now the reason for the bounce here:
- RS zone 1550-1600 hit
- W 8 EMA being retested for the first time
- 0382 D Fibs from june lows
- Oversold on all timeframes up to 6HR first time since june-july lows
Can we bounce to 1725 RS zone?
I am expecting at least a relief rally, which is happening right now. But for a longer/swing term picture we need to see what next week brings for the BTC and for the wider stock market.
So far the market is acting completely normal and was due a consolidation due to a massive run in the last 30 days or so.
We have a few support zones for SP500 a bit lower down at ~4100 and ~3900 zones and we need to get a feel how the market behaves there. We need to be thinking bullish right now and look where to buy. Only if we start smashing the support levels like they are nothing, with increasing bear volume, and head back to the lows quick then we need to worry and start thinking about new lows. until then we have bull goggles on and look for nice dips.
If we head lower in the next few hours I will be adding more to my position/scaling in for a bounce
keep in mind this is the weekend so there will be way less volume and could be more fakeouts as per usual weekend action
GL and control you emotions
ETH broke down 26D uptrend, will there be a followthru????!!!I went against my no shorting rule and took a small position last night when we rejected from 1960 with a large wick on 4HR.
This is what usually happens - the price fakeouts with a bull break only to quickly go down and trap anyone who was playing a bull breakout.
So I decided to take a small short position for shits n giggles.
Thats where i put my stop - a Hard stop so I have a known acceptable loss if i am wrong.
Reasons for going more downside here:
-Weekly 21 EMA resistance
-Broke down from 36Days long uptrend line!
-D RSI trendline broke down!
-Nasty 4HR wick rejection!
-Need for Weekly to consolidate after 131% run from the 880 low
-Weekly RSI trendline resistance
-RS zone in 2000 area where we broke down from last time in June and some paper hands will be selling breakeven
Consolidation targets:
-D fibs of 0382 lining up with D RS at around 1600-1550 levels
- there is another support zone at about 1700, but im thinking we have a small bounce there and head a bit lower. Either way will be monitoring daily and watching for any adjustments that need to be made
right now we are testing 4HR 8EMA resistance. Lets see if bears hold it - it has been acting resistance for last 2 days
So far there isnt a bear followthru. But lets see how it pans out over next few days.
Gl Everyone and make sure to protect your bankroll, cheers
Observations on Technical Verses Fundamental Analysis:Trend Following and Growth Investing
In Technical Analysis (TA), trend following is the equivalent of growth investing in Fundamental Analysis (FA). Further, in TA, mean reversion analysis ("overbought" and "oversold") is the equivalent of valuation ("overvalued" & "undervalued") in FA.
In both trend following and growth investing, the focus is on finding the best trends (price in TA, revenues in FA), without regard to "value". Therefore, a trend follower will hold onto a trending stock, regardless of how "overbought" it gets, much like a growth investor will hold onto a growth stock, regardless of how "overvalued" it gets. Conversely, a mean reversion investor will buy stocks that are very "oversold" relative to some anchor, such as the 200-day average or 52-week high, regardless of the direction of the trend, while a value manager will buy stocks that are "undervalued" relative to some anchor, such as earnings or book value, regardless of current fundamental performance. In other words, both mean reversion and value investors are making the case that the trends (price or earnings) have simply gone too far and are unjustified. Understandably, we can see why trend following and mean reversion don't "work" at the same time, just as growth and value don't "work" at the same time.
In the end, the line in the sand between TA and FA is ego. A pure TA investor accepts the verdict of the market in terms of what it deems fundamentally "attractive" visa vie the existence of either a positive price trend in a timeframe that is driven by fundamental trends (as opposed to short term trends and noise) or a magnitude of "oversold" momentum that overlaps with historical valuation measures. A FA investor, on the other hand, invests perhaps hundreds of hours developing a personal opinion of what is "attractive", and often finds him/herself at odds with the market's verdict. Since we can never make money until the market agrees with us, we can see then how a more holistic investor who has the wisdom to unite the strengths of trend following with growth investing (or mean reversion with value investing) is better off than those who use only one of those inputs.
By leaning on trend, a growth investor will know when the market agrees with his/her painstakingly curated fundamental view, particularly when things are changing, most importantly from good to bad. Behavioral bias may prevent a growth investor from seeing the change in fundamentals that is being depicted by the change in price trend. Indeed, it is in this very moment (former highflying, expensive growth stock that breaks price trend in a meaningful timeframe) when "overbought and overvalued" conditions finally start to matter.
David Lundgren, CMT CFA
Chief Market Strategist
Co-Host "Fill the Gap" podcast
Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
ETHEREUM Hit the TOP of Wedge!Alright so I was right and I was wrong
Right -
Nosterdamus type call here :)
Wrong -
However I did say we need to breakdown - bears needed followthru which they didnt get. Bulls held on, made it a support.
Then CPI numbers came in and pumped the whole market, SP500, NASDAQ, and BTC.
Anyway, now I am just a making note to myself that this is definitely the time for waiting. No Swing bull entries as we have hit
- the rising wedge resistance on 4HR
- hit double top at ~1920
- Weekly Resistance of this area goes back to Feb, March, May, June, July 2021 as well as recently May-June of 2022 - Lots of action - RS area
- Weekly RSI trendline resistance!
- Weekly 21 EMA resistance!
- Weekly 0382 Fibs retracement! - dead cat bounce territory
- 2k psychological resistance level
Jeez as i stack up all these resistances, the shorting opportunity seems to be amazing. Too bad I do not short as a rule. But this is where heaps and heaps of shorters will be opening up their positions. Including big money that move the markets. So going long here is suicide for the bankroll. Unless of course a HUUUUUGE amount of bull volume comes in and smashes everything. We should be setting a Weekly Lower high.
For me I may do some short term, 5 minute chart flips, like maybe buying a first 5min, 15min, 1HR OS bounces. but that's it. This is time for waiting and at least looking for Daily Higher Low to form - anywhere above 1650.
I will also put a small buy at ~1590 level as it has some nice support there for a swing trade for now.
GL everyone,
Protect your bankrolls
ETH breaking down!!!???Bulls have to hold here or we going lower as we
- break the uptrendline on 4HR - This Up trendline has been holding for 28 DAYS so its a notable breakdown.
- Also Triangle on D RSI is being tested and bulls need to hold. Otherwise it is bearish divergence that is playing out starting from 22 days ago
Some may say this is a great entry point as we are at the support, but not for me. We are too far at the end of the rising wedge and a break can happen at any moment.
As a Rule I do not buy support when the structure is close to it's end because the breakdown can be very violent.
Right now we are oversold on the 1HR so we may go sideways for a bit to cool off the RSI
I dont short, so I will just wait this one out.
WE did hit 1800 which is in a congested area / resistance from before.
ETH has some drama with the merge/fork coming up next month approx. 16th September. The question is will we pump or dump in the expectation.
Pump because:
a) The POS merge will make inflation of ETH like 4-8 times less - huge cut (BTC halvening always result in bull markets)
Dump because:
a) The staked ethereum can finally be unlocked and sold on the market
4HR PIC may be better for view s3.tradingview.com
GL. Stay safe and protect your bankroll
QNT USdt great risk reward shortthis is a great risk reward situation.
i will enter a short here at 129$
and i'm lookg for a take profit at 14.2$
that is a 11.5% and will use 3x leverage.
on the other hand,if a 4hour candle closes above 131.2$ i will cut losses and that is a 1.6% risk.
techincal supports it and qnt needs a small pullback.
for a safer bet you can take some profit at 120.3
BTC Saturday Analysis Over this week BTCUSDTPERP showed us it is ready to test higher levels.
Uptrend A reveals a clear definition of price increase on the daily chart followed by uptrend B that was created two days ago by supporting a daily level, this latter movement is a strong indicator BTCUSDTPERP is getting Bids even if we have yet to test lower levels like $18600.
The market created uptrend C confirming that the support created before in uptrend B was strong indicator of BTCUSDTPERP pushing to break its current range. This uptrend C was created as a support and if it stabilizes this could mean a push and towards the polarity zone and breakout.
The polarity zone kept getting tested over these last few days and with its confirmed uptrend A .
Downtrend D is a very strong and resilient level that if the market is able to push and break this level in conjunction of breaking the polarity zone we will see targets up top get tested fueled by a breakout.
ETH - we got what we wanted, nowOk so we got our entry. I have a small position that I took because i was in bed, going to sleep so I took the position on my phone.
Now lets see if we can get to the top trendline resistance of about 1800.
We got 2 resistance zones to punch thru as shown on the chart with the rectangular boxes.
So far the double bottom on 1 HR and the bull volume off it looks good.
Lets see how it plays out.
Needs a cool off at least on the smaller time frames as it entered the first resistance box.
Target 1800. Lets go
ETH possible trade coming upWe want to retry the trade few hours ago that didnt happen due to Pelosi mini pump
Rising wedge support trendline on 4HR with top resistance at about 1900. Could give us 15-20% trade.
Test of trendline
+
0.5 Fibs
+
Consolidation sideways- expected
+
4HR RSI support trendline test
Bulls looking to maintain D higher lows uptrend.
We are wrong if we breakdown the trendline with volume and continue lower. Likely to retest 1400 levels
So if we get in (scale in), put a stoploss and take the profits on the way up for protection.
Plan for the unexpected. Plan for being wrong.
LONG SOL if you can find entrySorry I tried to post this when I started this trade. It is too late unless you want to wait for a pullback an attempt entry. This is looking good but have already taken some profits because I don't trust these markets. Again, sorry for being to late I got pulled away before I could post this. Still maybe you can find a safe entry but be very careful please. In this market you never know could come back to entry to try to stop out trades or pickup liquidity.
-NFA
quickly done, rough but idea is there.
Shorting DG I opened a short position in DG this morning and am sharing my basic plan. To me this seems obvious. DG is a value store though and if this is truly a recession, which I am not convinced of, would be the only reason this trade fails. Like anything manage risk but this seems obvious to me. Am adding more if it goes higher. Use SL you feel comfortable with. Just give it some room though. This is in serious need of correction.
Sorry this is a bit rushed but wanted to get it out as fast as possible.