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NZDJPY breaks 200-day SMA; downward movement imminent?The New Zealand dollar to Japanese yen currency pair (NZD/JPY) saw an uptrend on the daily chart from March 2020 to July 2024, gaining 66.58% over the four-year period. Recently, however, the pair broke below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, signaling a potential trend reversal. The 200-day SMA, which had served as support for four years, now appears to be acting as resistance. Additionally, the NZD/JPY formed a double top, indicating that buyers were once more unable to push the price above the 92.00 mark. This double top region coincides with the 50% level of the bearish Fibonacci. Upward trend in NZDJPY driven by RBNZ-BOJ interest rate differential The strong upward trend had been driven by the interest rate differential between the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen. New Zealand, like many countries around the world, slashed interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic to stimulate its economy. However, as the economy began to recover, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) moved to raise rates to control inflation and avoid rampant price increases. With inflation now under control, the RBNZ has started cutting rates, with yesterday marking the third consecutive cut, as the central bank reduced New Zealand’s key interest rate from 5.25% to 4.75%. Japan, on the other hand, followed the opposite path, keeping its interest rate below 0 while other countries raised borrowing costs to control inflation — which is why the JPY has depreciated so much in recent years. However, in its most recent meetings, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) — Japan’s central bank — changed its stance and raised interest rates for the first time since 2016. With New Zealand’s interest rate declining and Japan’s interest rate increasing, there is potential for a medium-term devaluation of the NZD against the JPY. Downward movement in NZDJPY possible in coming months From a technical perspective, the following factors are at play: 1. Break of the uptrend on D1. 2. The 200-day SMA, which previously acted as support, is now serving as resistance. 3. A double top has formed on the daily chart. 4. The 50% Fibonacci region is bearish. Considering these technical factors and the diverging monetary policies of the central banks in Japan and New Zealand, a downward movement in NZD/JPY is possible in the coming months. If the price manages to break below 89.75, it is possible that it will fall to the 86.70 region in a few days. Disclaimer: 74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Short
by Marketscom
Crude oil saved by the 200-day MA (for now)A combination of factors saw crude oil snap its 5-day winning streak on Tuesday. China's equity markets plunged at double-digit levels when traders realised no new stimulus from China was to be unveiled after golden weak. US production forecasts were lowered by the EIA and concerns over the Middle East receded somewhat. An elongated bearish engulfing / outside day formed after its daily high met resistance at the September 2023 trendline. Yet the 200-day MA came to the rescue. For now at least. Given the 4-hour bullish hammer at the 200-day MA and weekly R1 pivot, alongside a heavily oversold RSI (2) on that timeframe, I suspect a cheeky bounce could be in order. Bulls could cautiously seek dips for a move to $75 or $76. Yet the magnitude of Tuesday's selloff suggests bears may be lurking at higher prices to re-enter upon any such bounce. Bears could wait to fade into such levels in anticipation of a return to the $70, near a high-volume node (HVN) and 61.8% Fibonacci level. MS
NYMEX:CL1!
by CityIndex
Why I’m Betting Bearish on GBPNZD: Key Market Drivers ExplainedAs I prepare to share my trade idea for GBPNZD, my overall bias is bearish. Here are some key fundamentals currently influencing this outlook: 1. UK Economic Slowdown: The UK is facing economic challenges, with high inflation and downgraded growth forecasts. This situation tends to weaken the British Pound against other currencies, including the New Zealand Dollar. 2. RBNZ's Hawkish Stance: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to maintain a strong monetary policy, focusing on controlling inflation. This contrasts sharply with the UK's more cautious approach, which supports a stronger NZD. 3. Seasonal Trends: Historically, GBPNZD has shown a bearish trend from mid-August through December. This seasonal behavior suggests that now is an opportune time to consider short positions. In my trading strategy for GBPNZD, I rely on probabilities to guide my decisions for entering short positions. In summary, by leveraging probabilities based on historical data and current market fundamentals, I aim to position myself advantageously for short trades on GBPNZD. This disciplined approach aligns with my bearish outlook and enhances my trading effectiveness. I look forward to sharing my journey in this trade and welcome any thoughts or feedback! 2W: Hourly TF:
Short
by Jasminex1x2
Why I'm Going Short on USDCAD: Analyzing Market ConditionsKey Reasons for a Bearish Outlook 1. Economic Differences: The U.S. economy is doing well, showing strong growth, while Canada’s economy is struggling. This usually strengthens the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar. 2. Oil Prices: Canada’s currency is closely tied to oil prices. If oil prices stabilize or drop, it could weaken the Canadian dollar further, especially since Canada’s economy isn’t performing well. 3. Central Bank Policies: The U.S. Federal Reserve might lower interest rates, which could attract more investment into the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada is likely to stay cautious due to weak economic data. Given these factors, I believe there’s a good chance for USDCAD to move lower. I’ll be using probabilities to guide my short positions and manage risk effectively. Feel free to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments below! 12M: On the 12M timeframe, there is insufficient data available. Therefore, we will move to lower monthly timeframes to identify a valid range and look for FB mitigation. 1M: 1D: 1H:
Short
by Jasminex1x2