$FX:NAS100 long update FX:NAS100
1. Market Context:
• The NAS100 chart shows a recovery phase following a sharp “flash sale” (a sudden drop in price).
• The Christmas rally pushed prices upward, indicating increased buying interest during the holiday season.
2. Liquidity and Demand:
• Price revisited a demand zone, suggesting that institutions or retail traders had pending buy orders in that area.
• The chart notes dark pool liquidity, where institutional buyers/sellers might have been active, hidden from retail traders.
3. Resistance Formation:
• After bouncing back from the demand zone, the price faced resistance, possibly near a Fibonacci retracement or order block level.
• This might suggest sellers gaining control temporarily.
4. Strategic Insights:
• Buyers are defending the demand zone, showing a bullish bias for continuation.
• Resistance at higher levels signals caution for long positions until confirmation of a breakout.
1. Key Levels to Monitor
• Support Zone:
• The demand zone near 21,250–21,300 (highlighted yellow) represents a critical support area.
• Buyers have shown interest here, as evident from the price bounce. If the price revisits this zone, watch for bullish reactions or potential breakdowns.
• Resistance Levels:
• The inner sell-side liquidity (SSL) marked near 21,876 aligns with a significant swing high and could attract sellers.
• Above this, a stronger resistance level appears around 22,100–22,200, aligning with the psychological round number and previous liquidity pool.
2. Fibonacci Insights
• The 50% retracement level (21,561) acts as a mid-level pivot point.
• A bounce off this level earlier suggests it remains a point of interest for bulls.
• However, failure to reclaim this level could lead to a deeper retracement to test the demand zone again.
3. Potential Bullish Scenario
• If the price breaks above 21,876 (inner SSL), the bullish momentum could target:
• 22,000 (key psychological level)
• 22,200 (outer SSL and strong resistance)
4. Bearish Scenario
• A failure to sustain above the 21,561 pivot may trigger:
• A retest of the demand zone (21,250).
• A deeper push towards 21,160 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the larger downtrend).
5. Dark Pool Liquidity
• Given the mention of dark pool liquidity, these levels may contain institutional activity.
• Demand zones below could see renewed buying pressure if liquidity was not fully absorbed earlier.
• Resistance zones above might see hidden selling pressure as institutions secure profits.
Bullish Scenarios (Buying Opportunities):
1. Rejection and Bounce from Demand Zone (21,250–21,300)
• Entry Criteria:
• Price forms bullish rejection (e.g., pin bar, engulfing candle) at the demand zone.
• Confirmation via lower timeframe bullish structure or volume increase.
• Stop-Loss: Below the swing low, around 21,190–21,200 (to avoid being stopped out by wicks).
• Take-Profit Targets:
1. 21,561: Closest resistance and Fibonacci 50% retracement.
2. 21,876: Inner sell-side liquidity (SSL).
3. 22,100–22,200: Outer SSL and psychological level.
2. Breakout Above Inner SSL (21,876)
• Entry Criteria:
• Price breaks and closes above 21,876 with momentum.
• Look for a pullback to retest the broken level as support.
• Stop-Loss: Below the breakout candle or pullback low.
• Take-Profit Targets:
1. 22,100: Immediate target aligned with psychological resistance.
2. 22,200–22,250: Extended target where outer SSL lies.
Bearish Scenarios (Selling Opportunities):
1. Rejection from Inner SSL (21,876)
• Entry Criteria:
• Price forms a bearish reversal pattern (e.g., double top, engulfing candle) at 21,876.
• Confirmation via lower timeframe bearish structure.
• Stop-Loss: Above the swing high at 21,900–21,950.
• Take-Profit Targets:
1. 21,561: Fibonacci pivot level and mid-range support.
2. 21,300–21,250: Demand zone and key support area.
2. Break Below Demand Zone (21,250)
• Entry Criteria:
• Price breaks and closes below 21,250, signaling bearish continuation.
• Retest of the broken demand zone as resistance offers a better entry.
• Stop-Loss: Above the retest high or broken level, around 21,300–21,350.
• Take-Profit Targets:
1. 21,160: Fibonacci 50% level of the larger structure.
2. 20,900–20,755: Previous liquidity zone and significant support.
Neutral (Range-Bound Trading) Scenario
If price remains between 21,561 (mid-level) and 21,876 (inner SSL):
• Scalping Opportunities: Buy at 21,561 support, sell near 21,876 resistance.
• Avoid taking aggressive trades until a breakout confirms directional bias.
