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Supply and Demand

XAU/USD Tradin Plan For TodayI will be looking at four potential scenarios for today's price movement. The price is currently consolidating near the middle of the range, with a previous day's high (PDH) around 2659 and a previous day's low (PDL) near 2633. Key levels to watch include the local highs and lows marked by the yellow zones. Key Levels: PDH (2659): Potential liquidity grab or breakout target for bullish scenarios. PDL (2633): Major downside liquidity target if bearish pressure dominates. Local Support Zone (around 2642): A key area for potential bounces or breakdowns. Local Resistance Zone (around 2649): A significant level to watch for rejection or continuation. Neutral Bias for now: The price is in a range with no clear directional dominance. Watch for liquidity sweeps, market structure shifts (MSS), and confirmation signals before entering trades. Scenarios to Watch: 1.Bullish Breakout (Green Scenario - Top Right): Plan: If price sweeps local liquidity near 2649 and breaks structure to the upside, look for confirmation on a retest of the yellow zone. Target: PDH at 2659 or higher. Confirmation: Break of structure + bullish retest. 2.Bullish Reversal from Support (Green Scenario - Bottom Left): Plan: If price drops to the 2642 support zone, wait for signs of accumulation (Wyckoff phases) and a structure shift upward. Target: Local highs around 2649 or PDH at 2659. Confirmation: Bullish structure shift + FVG retest. 3.Bearish Rejection (Red Scenario - Top Right): Plan: If price taps into resistance at 2649 but fails to break higher, watch for a bearish structure shift (MSS). Target: Local support at 2642 or PDL at 2633. Confirmation: Bearish structure break + retest. 4.Bearish Breakdown (Red Scenario - Bottom Left): Plan: If price breaks below 2642 support and confirms a bearish retest, expect continuation towards the PDL at 2633. Target: PDL or lower. Confirmation: Bearish retest of broken support. Use M1 for precise entries after liquidity sweeps. "Patience, precision, and discipline are key. Watch for structure shifts and enter with confidence. Trade safe!"
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Med_In_Trade
Bitcoin's status on hourly timeframes (4H)Bitcoin is in an ascending channel on the hourly timeframes. It had reached the top of the channel, reacted, and has now dropped. There is a support zone that could push the price back up to the previous high. Closing a 4-hour candle below the invalidation level will invalidate this move and lead to further drops. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
XAU/USD 18 December 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bullish. Analysis/Intraday expectation remains the same as analysis dated 16 December 2024. Price is clearly unable to target weak internal. This is due to the fact that Daily and Weekly Timeframe remain in bearish pullback phase. Price Action Analysis: Technically price is to target weak internal priced at 2,721.420. Price has sweeped liquidity, for two possible reasons. 1. To assist price to complete bearish pullback phase, react at either discount of internal 50% or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high. 2. To assist Daily and H4 TF's to complete bearish pullback phase with price to print a bearish iBOS and target strong internal low priced at 2,536.855. Intraday Expectation: Intraday expectation and alternative scenario as per points 1 and 2. Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bearish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price Action Analysis: I have been mapping systematically. Since last analysis, price has been printing erratically, printing a bearish iBOS, followed by a double bullish iBOS and most recently a bearish iBOS. Price is trading within an established internal structure. Intraday Expectation: Price is currently trading at premium of internal 50% EQ and has minimally tapped in to M15 supply zone. Price is expected to target weak internal low priced at 2,642.830 Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
XAGUSD- silver, waiting for the correction process to continue?!Silver is below EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its descending channel. If the decline continues, we can see the demand zone and buy within that range with the appropriate risk reward. Stabilization of silver above the resistance range will provide us with the way for silver to rise to the supply range. With the Federal Reserve beginning its interest rate cuts in September and expectations for this trend to continue, markets are now shifting their focus toward determining the neutral rate. The neutral rate refers to the benchmark interest rate in a normal economic cycle that neither accelerates economic growth nor slows it down. Federal Reserve officials have emphasized that predicting this rate is currently not feasible. They insist that it is necessary to observe how economic data reacts to each stage of rate cuts before making any conclusions about the neutral rate. Nevertheless, bond market fluctuations suggest that this rate may be higher in the current cycle compared to previous ones. On average, FOMC members estimate a long-term neutral rate close to 3%, although this figure remains uncertain. According to a recent Reuters survey of economists, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to decline to 4.3% within three months and 4.25% within a year. These figures were 4.25% and 4.1% in the November survey, and 3.8% and 3.75% in October.In a note from Citi, it was stated that demand for gold and silver is likely to remain strong until U.S. and global economic growth stabilizes. Additionally, buying these precious metals as a hedge against declining equity values will persist until U.S. interest rates reach the neutral level. This week, besides the FOMC’s decision on interest rates, other key economic data will be released. These include the GDP report, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and the latest findings on consumer sentiment. Bloomberg has reported that Wall Street’s perspective on the U.S. dollar is shifting. Policies introduced by Donald Trump and further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025 could weaken the dollar’s strength. Analysts from Morgan Stanley to J.P. Morgan predict that the U.S. dollar will peak by mid-next year before entering a downward trajectory. Similarly, Société Générale has forecasted a 6% decline in the dollar index by the end of 2025. Bloomberg also noted that Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chair, is expected to announce another quarter-point rate cut. However, the bigger question is what signals the Fed will provide regarding the future policy path and whether this will heighten tensions between Jerome Powell and President-elect Donald Trump. Following a full percentage point reduction in borrowing costs since mid-September, Powell and his colleagues are expected to pause rate cuts for now. The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain a holding pattern during its January meeting and reassess inflation and labor market conditions in March. This approach could lead to friction between the FOMC and Trump’s White House. Known for his preference for low rates and frequent complaints when he feels rates are not low enough, Trump’s arrival in office just over a week before the January meeting may amplify these tensions.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Ali_PSND
AUDUSD - What message will the Federal Reserve's dotplot have?!The AUDUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its downward channel. In case of a valid failure of the channel ceiling, we can see the supply zones and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. If the downward momentum decreases, we will look for buy positions on the midline and bottom of the channel. Investors are cautiously anticipating the key decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting. It is widely expected that the central bank will announce its third rate cut of the year and provide projections for 2025. Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, noted that market participants are eagerly awaiting updates from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and any hints regarding the trajectory of future rate cuts. He stated, “We expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut this week, followed by four additional cuts next year.” The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting is anticipated to confirm a quarter-point rate reduction while also providing updated projections for potential rate cuts in 2025 and possibly 2026. Meanwhile, the U.S. services sector has expanded at its fastest pace since October 2021, injecting fresh momentum into the economy, even as the manufacturing sector faces a deeper downturn. The S&P Global services index rose from 56.1 to 58.5 in December, while the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, marking its lowest level in 55 months. These figures highlight a widening gap between sustained growth in the services sector and further declines in manufacturing. Factory output and order volumes have dropped at a faster pace, while the cost of imported raw materials from China has risen due to concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration. Following the release of this data, projections for real private gross investment growth in the fourth quarter dropped from 2.4% to 1.2%, while forecasts for real government spending growth in the same period rose from 2.4% to 2.6%. Additionally, U.S. holiday retail sales for 2024 are expected to reach a remarkable $979 billion. According to a recent report by Fitch Ratings, declining demand poses the most significant risk to global commodity markets if the U.S. imposes new tariffs and affected countries retaliate. Fitch has warned that potential U.S. tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico could weaken global economic growth, particularly in China, the world’s largest consumer of commodities. This could exert significant pressure on base metals, chemical products, and oil markets. However, Fitch also noted that China’s economic stimulus measures could offset some of this pressure. At the same time, new tariffs on specific goods, such as steel and aluminum, could increase price volatility and disrupt trade routes. Bloomberg reported that J.P. Morgan believes the upward trend in European government bonds is nearing its end. The firm now views Australia as the next promising market for stronger performance. Kim Crawford of J.P. Morgan explained that there is limited room for further gains in Europe, as swap markets have already priced in the potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank. He also highlighted that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance, which has yet to reduce rates in this cycle, positions Australian bonds for stronger growth compared to other developed markets.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Rebuy Setup For FET (8H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section As we showed in the previous analysis, FET is in a large diametric pattern. Currently, wave F is forming, and it will soon be completed, leading to the beginning of wave G. Wave G is bullish. The targets have been marked on the chart. Closing a daily candle below the invalidation level will violate this analysis. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
2
CITYUSDT | Hidden GemsFan Tokens: The Hidden Gems Ready for a 10x Potential In this analysis, I want to shed light on the well-forgotten Fan tokens—a sector often overlooked but showing signs of significant potential. Recently, a noticeable increase in volume has caught my attention, which I believe is smart money accumulating positions. Historically, such accumulation precedes explosive moves, often delivering substantial returns before the broader market realizes their value. Here’s the game plan: Smart money tends to drive prices higher, leaving retail investors to chase after the move once it’s already made significant gains (e.g., 10x). My focus is on being ahead of this curve by identifying strategic entry points. Key Zone: The Blue Box (Demand Zone) I’ve identified a blue box zone as a critical demand area. This zone represents a price level where I expect the best risk-to-reward opportunities. If the price revisits this zone, it will align with my strategy to enter as a buyer, capitalizing on a potential reversal fueled by the earlier smart money accumulation. Summary Fan tokens are likely on the verge of transitioning from institutional to retail phases. My approach is disciplined: Wait for a retracement into the blue box for an ideal entry. Leverage the volume dynamics as confirmation of smart money’s involvement. Position early for potential outsized returns before the majority catches on. Let’s stay ahead of the crowd and make informed moves. Patience pays off! I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. My Previous Analysis 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active
Long
by XU99
Technical Analysis for Gold Spot/USD (1-Hour Chart)Current Market Overview Current Price: $2,646.34 Market Trend: Bearish with a range-bound consolidation phase after a strong decline. Key Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: $2,646.34 (current zone), $2,692.50, and $2,725.84 Support: $2,632.71, $2,613.26, and $2,602.79 Bullish Scenario Technical Factors Price Action: Price is stabilizing above $2,632.71, a key support level, with a small bounce attempting to hold around the current range near $2,646. Multiple rejection wicks below $2,640 signal buyers defending this region. Volume Profile: The green delta volume spike near $2,632.71 (41.54K volume) suggests buyers stepped in at this support. Indicators: The pink EMA cloud still indicates bearish pressure, but it is flattening, suggesting the bearish momentum is losing steam. A close above the bearish cloud and price sustaining above $2,646 could signal a reversal. Support Zone: Strong buying demand is seen between $2,632.71 and $2,613.26. Probable Entry Points Entry: Early Entry: Near $2,640 to $2,646 once price consolidates and shows bullish candle formations (hammer, engulfing). Confirmed Entry: Break and close above $2,652 with strong volume. Take-Profit Targets Short-term TP1: $2,660 (recent minor resistance). TP2: $2,692.50 (15% delta volume zone). Extended TP3: $2,725.84 (higher resistance and key supply zone). Stop-Loss Place SL below $2,632 to protect against further downside. Bearish Scenario Technical Factors Price Action: Price remains under pressure below the pink EMA cloud and has struggled to close above it since December 16th. Lower highs continue to form, confirming bearish structure. Volume Analysis: Strong selling pressure is evident near $2,646.34, shown by red bearish delta volumes. Sell zones around $2,646 to $2,660 are seeing repeated rejections. Resistance Zone: $2,646 to $2,652 acts as immediate resistance, and failure to break above this level could trigger further selling. Bearish Continuation Signal: A close below $2,632.71 will confirm bearish continuation to lower support zones. Probable Entry Points Entry: Aggressive Entry: Near $2,646 (sell at rejection or bearish engulfing candles). Confirmed Entry: Breakdown and close below $2,632.71. Take-Profit Targets Short-term TP1: $2,632.71 (immediate support). TP2: $2,613.26 (key support zone). Extended TP3: $2,602.79 (final strong support and green demand zone). Stop-Loss Place SL above $2,652 or $2,660 to protect against a bullish reversal. Summary: Trading Plan Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Take-Profit Targets Bullish $2,640 - $2,646 Below $2,632 TP1: $2,660, TP2: $2,692, TP3: $2,725 Bearish $2,646 - $2,652 Above $2,660 TP1: $2,632, TP2: $2,613, TP3: $2,602 Conclusion Bullish Bias: If price closes above $2,652 with strong volume, expect a move toward $2,692 and higher. Bearish Bias: A rejection at $2,646 - $2,652 or a breakdown below $2,632.71 will likely push prices toward $2,613.26 - $2,602.79. Recommendation: Watch price behavior at $2,646 and $2,632.71 for confirmation. Use proper risk management and wait for clear breakouts or rejections.
FX:XAUUSD
by ProspireWealth
Mean Reversion CME GAP at FOMC -> Pump until BOJ Rate DecissionHello guys! I will share a mean reversion idea on Bitcoin with you today. I expect Bitcoin to close the CME Gap, that got made at the beginning of the week. Currently we are very close to starting the recovery process. The CME Gap closing aligns very good with a mean reversion to the 50EMA on the 4hr timeframe. This could be an indication for a trend continuation of Bitcoin to the upside until friday when the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will decide their rate policy. We will look into the chart from a new perspective on friday so take this trade idea as a short term one. I mentioned in the chart that we have an unrecovered pink vector candle at the top. This could be an good area to aim for in the reversal process to take profit. With good execution this could be an good trade from 102k to 108k. Me personal, I don't think we will see a rate cut and if so only a small one. So nothing that will shake the markets to hard. I hope. Trade SAFE!
CME:BTC1!Long
by reports20netrust
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 12/18/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQH2025 - PR High: 22309.25 - PR Low: 22206.00 - NZ Spread: 230.75 Key scheduled economic events: 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories 14:00 | FOMC Economic Projections - FOMC Statement - Fed Interest Rate Decision 14:30 | FOMC Press Conference AMP raised margins for expected FOMC volatility spikes - Retraced 50% of Monday's ATH breakout range - +100 point value decline at session open - Auctioning long above previous session close Session Open Stats (As of 12:25 AM 12/18) - Weekend Gap: N/A - Gap 10/30/23 +0.47% (open < 14272) - Session Open ATR: 287.63 - Volume: 24K - Open Int: 196K - Trend Grade: Bull - From BA ATH: -0.5% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges) - Long: 22667 - Mid: 21525 - Short: 19814 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions. BA: Back Adjusted BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone NZ: Neutral Zone
CME_MINI:NQH2025
by mv3trader5
Profitable SMC Smart MoneyConcept Strategy Explained I will teach you how to trade liquidity grab, a trap, inducement, order block and imbalance. I will share with you my Smart Money Concept strategy for trading forex & gold. We will study a real SMC trading setup that I took on a live stream with my students. Trend Analysis With Structure Mapping The first step in our trading strategy will be the analysis of a market trend on a daily time frame with structure mapping. Analyzing GBPNZD on a daily time frame, we can see that the conditions for a bullish trend are met. Liquidity Zones Analysis The second step will be to find liquidity - supply and demand zones on a daily time frame. According to our rules, here are 3 liquidity zones that I spotted on GBPNZD. We see 2 demand zones and 1 supply zone. Test of Liquidity Zone The third step will be to wait for a test of a liquidity zone. And on that step, we should remember an important rule: We will wait only for a test of a liquidity zone that ALIGN with the market trend. It means that we will wait for a test of a demand zone in a bullish trend. We will wait for a test of a supply zone in a bearish trend. The only demand zones that meets these criteria on GBPNZD is Demand Zone 1. It aligns with a bullish trend. We don't consider Demand Zone 2, because a bearish violation of a Demand Zone 1 will be a Change of Character and a violation of a bearish trend. And here is how a test of a liquidity zone should look like. The price should simply reach that. Liquidity Grab & Imbalance After we identified a test of a significant liquidity zone that aligns with a market trend, we will start analyzing lower time frames. We will look for a liquidity grab, order block and imbalance on 4H and 1H time frames. Here is a liquidity grab that is confirmed by a bullish imbalance. We see a false violation of a liquidity zone, followed by a high momentum bullish candle. It will be our strong bullish signal. Order Block Zone In order to identify the entry point, the next step will be to identify the order block zone. According to our rules, here is the order block zone on a 4H time frame. Entry Level Our entry level will be the level of the upper boundary of the order block zone. Here is such a level on GBPNZD. A buy limit order should be set on that level. Please, note that in that particular case we don't need a 1H time frame analysis, because we have a confirmation signal on a 4H time frame. We will analyse an hourly time frame only when THERE IS NO SIGNAL on a 4H time frame. Stop Loss & Take Profit Safe stop loss should be below the lowest low of a bearish movement. To safely calculate a stop loss in pips for the trade, simply take 0.5 ATR - Average True Range. For Average True Range indicator , take the default settings - 14 length. Here is a safe stop loss level on GBPNZD. ATR is 55 pips. Our stop loss for the trade is 28 pips. Take profit for the trade will be based on the closest 4H liquidity - supply zone. That is the closest supply zone that I spotted on GBPNZD on a 4H time frame. Your target level should be a couple of pips below a supply zone. Look how perfectly the market reached the target! As you can see, that trading strategy is quite complex and combines different important elements. But what I like about this SMC trading strategy is that it truly makes sense. The intentions of Smart Money are crystal clear here and the trade execution rules are straight forward. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5