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Strength

How to Infer Currency Strength Without ANY IndicatorsToday I received a question regarding what indicators or websites to use to infer and compare the strength between related currencies. I responded with a long winded explanation as to why it is not necessary to use indicators or websites to infer such information because it can be realized solely through price action. If we look at the daily range today on GBPUSD, EURUSD, and EURGBP which resulted from the huge miss on the NFP numbers, we can gauge the strength between the EUR and the GBP versus the dollar as well as the EUR vs the GBP. In looking at the daily ranges of these pairs we will first notice that they all had a strong move to the upside. This of course being due to the weakness and downside movement on the dollar ultimately resulting form the miss on the NFP number. Therefore right off the bat we can infer that foreign leading currency pairs should be strong against the dollar today and we can expect to see pairs like the GBPUSD and EURUSD moving to the upside. That is exactly what we see here... price moved as expected. Now... what if you want to compare the relative strength of the GBP vs the EUR as it relates to the dollar weakness. Well then we will need to bring the cross pair EURGBP into the picture. The EURGBP cross pair will tell you how strong the EUR is vs the GBP. We see that the daily range of the EURGBP cross pair is roughly 90 pips and as of right now this pair has held that range indicating the EUR strength that we see clearly on the EURUSD. The daily range of the EURUSD is roughly 215 pips and it too has held this range indicating its strength. Since most of the day's trading is done for being that it is a Friday we can expect to see these prices hold through to the close of the day. So we have concluded now that the EUR is for sure strong right now against the dollar and we are thinking since EURGBP is so strong as well that this rally in the GBPUSD might be misleading and the GBP might not be all that strong right now. By looking at the GBPUSD we can see that it's daily range was roughly 160 pips but as of right now it has already give up roughly 1/3 of that range and price is showing signs of continued downside movement. Seeing this we can conclude that the EUR is certainly stronger than the GBP right now and going into next week if we continue to see upside movement on EURUSD and EURGBP we can expect to see downside movement on GBPUSD. We hope you found this to be insightful and if you did you should definitely check out our YouTube channel goo.gl/g8sWn3 where we do live streams every Monday Wednesday and Friday at 7 p.m. eastern standard time. Enjoy your weekend!
Education
by UnknownUnicorn261897
5
Is AUD/CAD in a Long-term Bullish Channel?Is that a rhetorical question? ;) Even if price retraces to the downside in the near term, I am a Bull over the long-term plus it looks like a bullish Inverse H&S formation which are extremely powerful and reliable even before breaking the neckline as you can clearly see the increasing momentum. If you trade the Kiwi/CAD then for the long-term look for the exact opposite . AUD/CAD is what I like to call an SVP {a Super Valuable Pair} because each pip is worth a lot not to mention the Overnight Swap Rates are positive for Long positions so make sure to Buy dips! I like to classify my favorite pairs as either an HVP {High Value Pair}, an EVP {Extremely Valuable Pair} or an SVP {Super Valuable Pair} based on a variety of factors and situations which can and do change due to the dynamic nature of the current market conditions. Upside targets will be added in and updated when I get some more free time, maybe this weekend.
Long
by FractalEyeZ
Low price stock candidate - Chosen by our whole brain processOn a daily chart: It is above 5 MA and 20 MA, it is above the William´s % R, above the CCI , the daily candlestick is positive, it has an increasing volume , it is a growth industry (semiconductors), it is above the cloud, above the 50 and 20 MA, it is above the 8 EMA , the RSI that I set to 2 is above the 80 level, the MACD crossed and the PVT is positive. News: us.rd.yahoo.com The bollinger bands have narrowed and beginning to widen. On a weekly: It is above the cloud. These type of ideas are mentioned in our book Pennies to Thousands, a whole brain process of picking stocks with left brain indicators and right brain intuition. This book can be picked up for the same cost as a commission on a stock and can be purchased on Amazon or other bookstores. You can also watch our Youtube videos which have different videos on right and left brain activities to choose stock candidates. SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHANNEL: Pennies to Thousands.
NLong
by penniestothousands
EUR/USD Targeting ResistanceTargeting resistance at 1.1387. • EUR/USD keeps on pushing higher. Daily resistance lies at 1.1387 (20/11/2015 high). Hourly support may be found at 1.0711 (05/01/2016 low). Yet, expected to show further increase. • In the longer term, the technical structure favors a bearish bias as long as resistance holds. Key resistance is located region at 1.1453 (range high) and 1.1640 (11/11/2005 low) is likely to cap any price appreciation. The current technical deterioration favors a gradual decline towards the support at 1.0504 (21/03/2003 Low). Here at Unique Forex we combine our team's 40+ years of trading experience with our proprietary algorithm to significantly enhance the trading experience. Utilizing the two, we are able to offer some of the most powerful research on an array of currency pairs. Here you will get all of our research on some of the more popular majors like the EURUSD, but if you would like to get access to the rest of our research head over to www.unique4xpro.com
Long
by unique4x
XAUUSD inverse H&S, break up of necklineRecently, Gold broke up above intermidiate resistance/neckline. On chart, you can see inverse Head and Shoulders pattern which usually leads to reversal of previous trend. Since Reversal candle on the 1st of January of 2015 it feels much more constructive. Nice 2 days of rally after that actionable signal. Then it broke up resistance at $1,204 which later became our new pivot support. After 3 days of rally we have small reversal candle which may lead to digestion or pullback (reason to cover some if you are long, doesn't mean short) that is healthy as gold already gained 4.5% since the beginnig of new 2015 year. First area to look for entry Long is $1,223 - break point of neckline and previous swing high. Then we have 21 EMA and bigger support at $1,204. From fundamental point of view we can see increase in demand, as wedding season takes place in many countries. India is prominent one. My first intermidiate target is $1,255. Macro target $1,300-$1,330
FX:XAUUSDLong
by andrew.berg
HOW TO DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF A CURRENCYOne way to determine the strength of a currency is to add 2 moving averages to the charts, one set to 5 and one set to 12. If both the 5 MA and the 12 MA is pointing upwards, that means +1 and vice versa if both of the MA:s are pointing downwards. If they are pointing against each other, different direction or are flat lined, thats equals 0 as we are most likely in a consolidation. On the chart above we have determined the daily strength of EUR. Today EUR is moderate or "0". When we have determined the strength of all major pairs: EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, CAD, NZD, AUD and CHF you will have a clear view of what pairs are strong respective weak. We don't want to be trading pairs that have for example: EUR -5 and CAD -6, because these pairs are both weak and won't move very much, very likely to be in a consolidation. We want to combine the strongest against the weakest and vice versa, example if EUR is +5 and USD is -6, we are then looking for opportunities to go long on EUR/USD. Remember to use all your knowledge while trading, daily currency strength is a great tool to pick out the best pairs to trade for the day. Today EUR is 0 and USD is +7, so we are looking of opportunities to go short on EUR/USD and if we take a look at the EUR/USD chart, we can see that we are two legs down, (the market usually moves no more - almost never more than 3 legs before if have to refresh itself. Also if the second leg is bigger than the first, we can expect a third leg. If the third leg is bigger than the second leg, we can expect a test, then market have to refresh itself before it can continue down further) the second leg is pretty much the same size as the first leg, so we can expect a 3d leg to come in, or at least a test. However, we can't enter the trade at the current price so we wait until it pulls back to our expected area of entry and leave a wick indicating its struggling at this area, we then go down to the 240 TF (/ 60 TF) to see if we can count the legs of the pullback and get an ideal entry. Here is a checklist on how to trade PRICE ACTION with daily currency strength. 1) Check market strength. 2) Look for fresh moves (V Formations). 3) Identify structure priority (Legs). 4) Look for ideal S/R. 5) Estimate R:R. 6) Watch only the view chart pullback until or near the S/R (and leave a wick/tail). 7) Go down one timeframe to see if the legs are visible. 8) Enter trade accordingly to plan of action. 9) Keep sister markets ready. 10) Watch the group of the moving currency to understand areas of halt. 11) Update journal with target information. NOTE: This is a universal application, meaning that it doesn’t matter what approach or strategy you have to the market, it simply shows you the best pairs to trade so that you can apply your strategy accordingly. I hope this helps and I will be posting more trades on TradingView so you get a clearer view of how to trade price action with daily currency strength, and increase your profits to the max without being greedy :) Daily Currency Strength: Pre-Asian, London and New York Opening now available at www.tradingwhales.com
by Tradinggrouptw
23
MCD Long; 150EMA Support - Risk:Reward Of 62:1This trade setup is pretty simple and doesn't require any rocket science. McDonald's, or MCD, is a component of the DOW30. MCD has been in a trading range on the weekly chart for quite some time now. We are currently at the bottom of this range, providing an excellent opportunity to get long. I'm using covered calls in this name to get long the stock at as cheap a price as possible. The RSI show at label (A) is finding support in the oversold zone we have seen it bounce from before. In addition, we have moved off the 150EMA Weekly, which if you look at the green ellipse has previously held up since about 2007-2008 (not shown in this chart). There are two long possibilities here for me: 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 100 Call for $0.27 making your cost basis $93.41. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.36 to make a maximum of $6.59. That's a risk reward of 18:1. 2) 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 97.5 Call for $0.57 making your cost basis $93.11. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.07 to make a maximum of $4.39. That's a risk reward of 62:1. (I traded #2) The risk reward is assuming we could close out the position on the penny. This of course is not entirely true because we do not know how far below the market can close. It give you an idea however of just how well this trade is setup. You can tailor your stops to your liking. For example from this level, my stop is on a close below $93.05 or a touch of $92.35. This is because I never risk more than 2% on a single trade. I traded play number 2 because it brought my cost basis closer to the EMA reducing risk, while limiting profit. To compensate I doubled the size of my MCD position so the profit would match that of Trade Play #1, with my total risk being less than 2% still, and appropriate stops in play as mentioned. $97.50 is the closest and more likely target, with $102.00 being the top and more extended part of the range. So by using the $97.50 calls and doubling my size, my chances are better yet that I will achieve the same profits as Trading Play #1, simply because it only requires MCD to head towards $97.50 and not $102.00. Good luck, and may the markets be ever in your favor!
NYSE:MCDLong
by TheProfitcy
US Oil Short From Bullish Flag; High Risk:Reward RatioUSO has broken it's uptrend a few weeks back, and since has been heading violently lower with no signs of stopping, at least not yet. Not in my eyes. I had a plethora of converging indications, so I've marked them in the chart A - F, and then explained my trade setup. Good luck. A) RSI has broken above the 35 level, but this is likely because it bounced a bit from being oversold. It remains below 50 which is a bearish indication and still has resistance at the 40 level. B) The cream of the crop. B marks the head of a head and shoulders pattern in USO. You can see when the neckline was broken here, while simultaneously breaking a series of important EMAs, USO began it's slide. We would expect some sort of throw back to this neckline. This will be important in our trade setup later. C) Here is our bearish flag and Andrew's Pitchfork. You can see the slight countertrend movement off the lower bollinger band, and what now looks to be a hanging man. This entire move up is hitting resistance in the pitch fork, as well as the flag formation, and has formed entirely on declining volume. That's not a positive sign for continued upward momentum. D) PSZ (Prior Support Zone) from way back when. I'm expecting a move down into this zone where it will coincide with support at the lower BB or lower median pitchfork line. We may get a bounce down here, or more consolidation. E) Volume Decline Throughout Bear Flag F) Declining & Still Negative MACD The one thing I didn't like here was the RSI, and that the weekly chart shows that we may need a throwback before extended downward momentum. This is where that neckline comes into play. We may very well see a throwback to the 66 area before we are awarded with any serious downside momentum. However the weekly RSI is also in a downtrend, reinforcing our bearish outlook. I'm short a directional diagonal on this play, to take advantage of Theta decay, and let oil slowly drift lower in my favor until we reach that prior support and I debate what the next play will be. More downside, or a retracement? Maybe a renewed uptrend? Who knows?
AMEX:USOShort
by TheProfitcy
DIS relative strength during market correctionPrice of Disney's stocks holds nicely during this corrective phase showing relative strength. S&P was up 1% on Friday and gain 6 handles on premarket showing some follow through. This stock could be a good candidate when market buying will resume. Entry ans Stop on chart. It is difficul to say what could be potential target as stock hovering near historical highs, but minimum requirements are 1,5-2 more that risk (makes our target $91.60 - $92.00)
NYSE:DISLong
by andrew.berg
2
NTAP showing relative strength above important levelNetApp holds well above broken resistance level at $38. This is very important level as it is in play since March. We had some clues before break up as buyers managed to build series of higher lows with recent bottom at $36. Below this, idea will loose its luster. As broad market entered into corrective phase, i like how this specifique stock showing us relative strength and wedging above important level. Sector of Data Storage devices also keeps its buying momentum ($WDC, $STX, $VMW). Use your trade and risk management rules to keep odds on your side and control risk the same time. I am tier 1 here, add tier 2 if market will find its footing, add tier 3 on break og wedge. If it will go through $39, it will open doors to $41.
NASDAQ:NTAPLong
by andrew.berg
TDC found strong support and looks ready to goTeraData has been hot stock during 2010-2012, then it lost its luster after soften in margins. But in terms of net profit and total revenues it is showing us solid numbers. Stock found strong support at $39-$40. Looks like funds accumulate this stock during last three quarters. Yesterday, it gave us Day #1 (broke of flag and trend line). If the next days it will hold 1/3-1/2 of its range and will go through pivot high $43.65 then it will open doors to upper resistance at $49. With stop below $41.70 (bottom of flag) and more strategical $40 makes this trade acceptable from R/R point of view. Company will release its earnings on 7th of August before market opens.
NYSE:TDCLong
by andrew.berg
FOE major supportFerro Corp is sitting on its major support showing us relative strength, while SPY broke down its intermidiate trend with big, ignited candle. I will be watching for stocks that show us resilience during this corrective phase, as we remain in macro trend. If indexes will find its footing, then we can see an upward move in this stock with resonable risk/reward and high probability of winning. Trade management is the key. Tier 1 here, close to support. Add when market conditions will be favorable and stock will go through $12.80ish with potential to $13.90ish resistance, then we have $15.
FLong
by andrew.berg
ACN trend bounceAccenture looks ready to move higher, as it bounced off of trend line. Now, it is hovering around all key moving averages. Combine it withh strong market (yesterday it bounced again from active trend line) and that is how you get A+ trades. I am looking for potential move through $81 for additional gains. My mid-term target is $84.50. With stop below previous swing low at $79 - this trade looks attractive from Risk/Reward point of view. Check my previous idea in this srock in the link below
NYSE:ACNLong
by andrew.berg
NOW get long now, part 2This cloud-service company looks ready for another leg higher. Stock came from $26.33 to $71.80 for one year. Then agressively sold off from high. Pretty deep pullback to $46 which we can measure with fib levels - 61,8% is support - the last chance for bulls to prove that it is not reversal. I was bullish on it since Reversal on 15 of May (check my thoughts in the link below). Since then, it had nice move through resistance $55-$56 right to $64.61 from where it had 4 days of selloff. It found bottom and formed support on previous resistance around $55.00-$55.60 (previous resistance). I like the way how buyers regrouped and with yesterdays candle it broke up consolidation with bullish close near intraday high. So, buyers should hold above $58 to keep active traders attention, then we can see some follow through to the top of this wedge. It has some room to $64 and with well-defined risk below $55.60, it makes this trade attractive from Risk/Reward point of view with high probability of winning, as this market stays bullish (active, intermidiate and macro trends are still intact). We have earnings on July 30 after market close.
NYSE:NOWLong
by andrew.berg
SCTY looks ready for move higherSolarCity poked its head off consolidation and looks ready to amke move higher. Overall, stock gained 400% since it became public. This has largely been driven by its attractive business model, which has allowed it to grow its customer base at a feverish pace. Unlike other installers who require customers to make upfront cash payments, SolarCity foots all the installation costs upfront and then leases the solar system back to the home or business on whose roof it sits. After it found top at $88, then it was sold off very hardly (lost almost half of its value) and found at $46 -$48. After it broke up descending chanel, it caught momentum buying. Controlled pullback and resuming of buying - that is what we have. Combine it with strong overall markets and that is how you get high probability tardes. Holding above $66.50 could keep its momentum intact for potential move to $74-$76 (previoous high and trend line). Manage this position according to your timeframe and risk management rules. For swing traders, if it will go below $62.50, then it makes this idea invalid. For more active traders, use short term moving averages to judge price action.
SLong
by andrew.berg
Amazon changing sentiment in front of earningsAmazon was in down trend most part of the time this year but caught some buying after it broke up from $320-$340 consolidation with strong two days continuation to $359.32. Now, it holds nicely near highs. Buyers probably should not gave back more than 1/4-1/3 of this recent move if they want to see quick continuation. I expect to see bull flag and continuation through recent highs some time soon. maybe earnings release on Thursday 24 after market close could be such type of catalyst.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by andrew.berg