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BTC Update! Recognizing support & resistance levels!Good evening everyone! We had about 48 hours of nothing occurring since last update. Two charts ago we were watching to see which side caved with the 3 supports in $6400's and 3 resistances in $6600's. The bears won that battle and sent us down to $6399 which is when I entered some positions, using $6320 as my stop loss based on the next support level. We then saw a rally up where again, we knew we had 3 resistance spots of $6610, 6640, and 6642. This has me taking some profit in the upper $6500's just to lock the profit in and recognizing potential resistance spots. We topped out at $6603. Last chart I discussed just having patience with the remainder of my position and if bulls could not break the resistances, I'd be watching for a 4 hour higher low to be formed and this would then become an updated stop loss area just to protect profits. Bulls established that at $6511 on the consolidation. And finally after literally no movement up or down for a while, we saw the bulls try and make their move. They rallied straight to, you guessed it, resistance. $6641 is where this move topped out. I personally left my position in tact as was not at a computer to move from SL to profit taking but do not believe I would have exited anyways. At this time, I'll ride the stop losses to protect profits and wait to see if the bulls can prove themselves and get above the resistance spot now at $6641 and $6642. So we essentially have a triple top including $6640 from before. Ok, so am I bullish or bearish? Overall I am neutral because the weekly remains in an equilibrium pattern. So let's weigh some positives and negatives of current market. Positive, bulls got above the high from 2 days ago at $6603. Negative, they still could not beat the 3 resistance zones, getting ahead of $6610 and rejecting hard with the triple top. Negative - the upper wick on the candle screams profit taking just as it did before. I'll keep a few stop losses loose personally just to avoid the market makers fishing for those stops as this market continues to be easily moved with thin order books. Market is in a bit of a channel currently as well so I am keeping a close watch on that. While I'll happily stop out if higher lows are lost and protect my profit, I'd then be watching the channel to re-enter positions and use the channel as a SL if needed. Lots of ways to play this market but overall its currently a market I am not dedicating a ton of time to as the moves have been small so a couple of checks on the chart each day just to see where things are and if I need to adjust stops or alerts. Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
Strength building on BitShares BTS. BullFilter shows a Long.Analysis: Correction ended mid August and accumulation has been going on since. The amount of selling in the 1500-1600 range represented capitulation of weak hands. BullFilter showed a bullish divergence from Late August until Sept 12, when the price action finally caught up. With some nice recent spikes in volume some upward price movement is expected in the next 2 weeks. Entry: Enter between 1700 and 1750 upon the completion of this downward wave. Now that we know we want an entry in this range, we will use BottomFinder here to select us a great entry point (Example below) Take Profit: The dashed red lines represent target take profit levels. We suggest cashing out 10% at T1, 35% T2, 40-50% T3, 5-15% T4. StopLoss: SL set to 1600 to avoid the liquidity pool from 1650-1700 and being stop hunted. 1700 is also currently acting as local support. Upon completion of T1 move stop loss to entry point to secure a risk free trade. Additionally continue moving stop loss up by one target each time a new target it reached. i.e. when T2 is reached, move stoploss to T1 level. This way you can ride out dips with no anxiety and automatically exit the trade in profit should you not be around to monitor!
BLong
by theheirophant
7
Trailing Stop Loss RuleAs you trail the stop loss with the 6 Day RPR, remember to maintain discipline by not moving the stop loss back away from the retracing market. In other words, if you raise your stop loss, then keep it there. Period. ONLY MOVE THE STOP LOSS TO TIGHTEN AND NOT TO LOOSEN THE DISTANCE. This rule applies to whatever indicator or means you are using to trail your stop loss. Trailing a stop loss means only trailing it behind, not doing the opposite and moving it away from the retracing market price. In this example of the CHFJPY your stop loss would have been maintained at the previous day's 6 Day RPR low of 116.4480 and not moved down to 116.0888, which is the current days' 6 Day RPR low.
Education
by chris333
BTC Waterfall as expected! Still another 4 hour lower highWow, we had some nice volatility today. And this was the cascade I was speaking of yesterday. Yesterdays post I stated "We have a lot of recent lows from 4 hour chart to be watching including $6208 from today, then $6191, $6177, and finally our low from when the bounce first started on this move at $6116. I would not be surprised to see all 4 of those levels get taken out together as many in positions will utilize those areas as stop losses and odds of us cascading down and straight through them is fairly high in my opinion if RSIs are able to cool off first". And just over 24 hours later we watched the drop from $6330's straight through all of those prior levels in about 1 hour with our new bottom at $6106. This is just a simple thing of recognizing where stops will likely be triggered and it won't matter if news related or not, stops are established and once triggered, we see the waterfall effect. The positive out of this is the bulls bought the dip hard. Traders were waiting at the bottom for each resistance to be taken out to buy the dip, give the V shaped recovery and then scale out along the way up. The negative, even with a 6-7% bounce in 30 minutes, the 4 hour chart still only gave another lower high with our top at $6511 compared to our most recent lower highs of $6530, $6565, and $6580. Same deal, traders recognizing where the resistances will be and scaling out prior to lock in profits. Also on a positive tho, just as we had a bunch of lows stuck together that could all get taken out at once, we now have a bunch of lower highs all close together and if the bulls can get another push up, would be watching for them all to get taken out together. Shorts will have stops at these levels just as the longs did down at the lows. Happy Trading! Enjoy the volatility! Just My 2 Sats!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by My2Sats
XRPBTC Primary PredictionGang, I am going to keep experimenting with this pattern. I think we are going to see a correction around 6,450, but that's okay we will still hit our target on the chart. Buy the handle. Set a tight stop loss. 5-10% loss with close to 50% gains. Let's get it gang. ***A 100% drop playing out throughout the rest of the year is still very possible. If you ask me though the bullish risk to reward on the long term is mind blowing. We are in buying territory on the long term. ***Always remember to pay homage to the gang, and keep movin that bread. \w/ ***LTC TIP JAR: MNW7HLttWjNzwEEMsDYpMNEUWi1Kct6vVr
Long
by SheepGangShepherd
Intermediate Trading Strategy - Part 2In part 1 we discussed how to identify a trend and the importance of understanding the time horizon. Please start with that post so that you understand how I identify trends. Rules of Thumb The longer the time frame = the lower the risk The shorter the time frame = the higher the risk The higher the leverage = the higher the risk The lower the leverage = the lower the risk The stronger the market is trending the more comfortable I feel taking on risk, in terms of position size and time frame. When the market is trending and all of the time frames are lining up then I will make some day trades. However, this has not been the case in months and is not something I am actively looking for. Risk:Reward If Real Estate is ‘Location, location, location!’ then in trading it is ‘Risk:reward, risk:reward, risk:reward!’ For me it does not matter if it is shorting Bitcoin' (my favorite asset) or longing a US financial stock (one of my least favorite), if the risk:reward is unbalanced enough towards my favor then I will take a position. If it isn’t a 4:1 bet then I have to be very, very certain in the position. In order to understand this ratio I must write down my stop loss, and profit target(s) beforehand. The stop loss and profit targets are gospel! Changing them ruins the entire position. Lacking the discipline to stick to the stop loss/profit target in the heat of the moment = lacking the ability to actively trade. Stop Losses & Profit Targets Stop losses are usually straightforward. In parabolic markets they can change, but they shouldn’t be much more difficult. One thing that may separate me from other traders is that I like to give my position plenty of room to develop. I hate getting whipsawed on my trades! It is my least favorite feeling and one that has taught me many lessons. I am extremely patient and cautious with my entries. I wait until I am very confident in my position and therefore I am comfortable giving it plenty of room to develop. I set it at a level where I know I will not want to adjust it if the market is moving against me. In fact I would probably do well taking the other side of the trade, a/k/a ‘flipping my position’ as soon as my stop loss is triggered. However I have a strict no re entry rule for a minimum of 24 hours after getting stopped out. In bull markets I set it slightly under the prior low. I will use the weekly chart by default and then zoom in to see if I feel comfortable setting it a little tighter. In bear markets I set it slightly above the prior high. This is usually illustrated by ‘Bill Williams Fractals’. I will trail my stop loss once a new high/low is established. If the market has entered a phase 3 hyperwave, as defined by Tyler Jenks, then I will use the Parabolic SAR' instead of Bill Williams Fractals. On the weekly chart I will use the previous SAR' as my stop and trail it as soon as a new one is printed. Or if I am using the daily chart I will set it two SAR’s behind and move it up one each time a new SAR is printed. In the part 3 we will delve into profit taking.
Education
by Sawcruhteez
7
Comprehensive Trading ProcessBefore Entering Start the by writing down predictions for what I expect to happen before the end of the day. 1 day | 1 week | 1 month predictions: Make projections for what is expected to happen during the listed time frames Previous analysis/position: Review yesterday’s analysis to remember what your thought process was Patterns: Established patterns outweigh other indications Horizontal support and resistance: Horizontals are most important when no pattern or trend is present. Remember that prices range 70% - 80% of the time BTCUSDSHORTS: Analyze the trading view chart with patterns, support/resistance, trendlines and indicators. Do not short when short sellers are at or near ATH’ levels. This is when you are very likely to get squeezed out of the position. Then check the long:short ratio. 60% long:40% short indicates a good balance for a move to the upside. If it gets to 65%+ on either side then a squeeze is expected Funding Rates: If it gets too expensive to fund a long or short then the price is likely to react accordingly 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): Check for crossovers and know how far away the price can get, historically speaking, from the EMA’s. This will help identify oversold/overbought conditions 50 & 128 MA’s: Same as above FIB’s: Very important for identifying major levels of support and resistance Candlestick analysis: Learn more here Ichimoku Cloud: Here is a great resource' if you would like to learn more TD’ Sequential: Here and here are great resources Visible Range: Volume = resistance or support. This indicates where the major volume has occurred and is very useful in identifying major s/r BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: Calculate price change over the following periods: 12h, 24h, 1w, 2w, 1m. This will help to identify being overbought or oversold Bollinger Bands: Very useful in ranging markets. Super squeezes indicate upcoming volatility Trendline: Very useful in identifying support and resistance as well as reversal when the trend breaks Daily Trend: Not necessary, but I like to know what the market is doing right now Fractals: Very useful in setting stop losses. Up fractals should not be broken in a bear market and down fractals should not be broken in a bull market On Balance Volume: Helps identify what the ‘big money’ is doing. Pay close attention to divergences ADX: Helps to identify if there is a trend and how strong it is. If -DI > +DI then bearish. If -DI < + DI then bullish. If ADX < 20 then ranging market. If ADX > 25 then trending market Chaikin Money Flow: Use it the same as the OBV RSI (30 setting): Used to identify tops in parabolic markets, according to parabolic burst theory Stoch: Can provide good signals, although I find it rare. Nevertheless the Stoch on the 3d has predicted price movements very well in the 2018 BTC' bear market End with reviewing predictions and making a summary. After entering Managing stop losses and avoided greed is all that remains. Stop Losses Are set slightly under the prior low (if long) and slightly above the prior high (if short). This will usually be illustrated by William's Fractals. For each open position go through the following process on a daily basis. SPX: New low established with down fractals at $2,800. Just broke up fractal and established new high. Adjust stop to $2,794 BTC: Has not established a new lower high or up fractal. Stop remains above prior high
Education
by Sawcruhteez
3
Ethereum - let’s reassess the situation: new scenarioOur previous scenario on ethereum is linked below (and on the chart above on those cool yellow triangles!). Since then price has not exactly did as we expected, so we haven’t entered any position yet. We’re currently hanging on to our previous invalidation zone, and we got there in a manner that reeks of exhaustion. Let’s have a closer look at the situation and see what new information the market has given us. Daily Let’s first just look at the price action and ichimoku. Price has been rejected from the bottom of the thick kumo. but is at the moment being held by the previous low, indicated by yesterdays long wick.We will need to wait for this to be confirmed by another candle. At the moment we’re still inside yesterdays candle, as long as that remains that way, we’re relatively safe… Kijun and tenkan are flat, so we expect price to bounce back up to them eventually. Chikou span is in open space, indicating there is still bearish potential. All this being said, we’re still looking for a bullish entry. Ichimoko doesn’t give us any clues to that yet, except perhaps the flattening of all lines and the thinning of the kumo. We expect sideways action, and then eventually a kumo break. Possibly through the flatter part of the kumo. One of the reasons we’ve been anticipating a move up by ETH is because Bitcoin did. The correlation between these pairs suggests that ETH should make up for the move it didn't have. We’ll get into this more deeply another time. Now let’s look at the setup on a daily timeframe We’re looking for a retracement of the last move up, towards around 620. We expect some resistance on the way, but before get into projecting more exact targets, we need to see the move start. We holding onto some previous support levels, as well as the 1:1 extension of the previous swing down. Price has maybe some more momentum for a push down to the 1.272 level, so again, we have to wait for confirmation signals to enter. We can enter long in this zone between the 1 and 1.272 extensions, or wait for a breakout of the breakout level. This will give a higher probability that of reaching our target. In either case we’ll have to wait for some kind of signal for this scenario to turn into a trade 2HR The 2 HR timeframe shows the breakout level around the top of the kumo, and a thick kumo beneath. This tells us that we’re probably going to have a range-behaviour behaviour, waiting for the kumo to flatten out or perhaps reach into the kumo and range there for a while. Either way, I know it sounds boring, but we have to wait for our signals before we can enter. If price chooses to move beyond the 1.272 extension level we’ll invalidate the scenario and see how we can reposition ourselves.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by DariusZen
4
Chaikin Volume Indicator Strategy EURUSD 1HThe reason why Chaikin Money Flow is the best volume indicator and it’s better than the classical volume indicator is because it measures institutional accumulation-distribution. Typically on a rally the Chaikin volume indicator should be above the zero line. Conversely, on sell-offs the Chaikin volume indicator should be below the zero line. Step #1: Chaikin Volume Indicator must shoot up in a straight line from above zero (minimum +0.15) to below the zero line (minimum -0.15) When the Volume goes from positive to negative in a strong fashion way it has the potential to signal strong institutional selling power. That’s our base heavy lifting signal! Basically, we let the market to reveal its intentions. When the big money steps into the market, they leave a mark as their orders are so big that it’s impossible to hide. When the volume indicator forex goes straight from above zero to below the zero line and beyond it shows accumulation by smart money. We’re firm believer that you get your maximum bang for the buck when you trade side by side with the smart money. The institutions have more money than you have, more resources than you have and probably they are smarter than you. It’s pretty obvious that the odds are stacked against you, so if you want to change that just follow the smart money. Step #2: Wait for the Volume Indicator Forex to slowly pullback above the zero line. The price needs to remain below the previous swing high. Once we spotted the big elephant in the room aka the institutional players we start to look for the first sign of market weakness. Here is how to identify the right swing to boost your profit. We’re going to let the Chaikin Money Flow indicator slowly move above the zero line. The key word here is “slowly”. We don’t want to see the volume dropping fast because this will invalidate the accumulation noted previously. Secondly, as the volume decreases and moves above the zero line, we want to make sure the price remains below the previous swing high. This will confirm the smart money accumulation. Step #3: Sell once the Chaikin Forex indicator breaks back below the zero line. Wait for the candle close before pulling the trigger. Now that we have observed real institutional money coming into the market, we wait for them to step back in and drive the market back down. When the Chaikin indicator breaks back below the zero line, it signals an imminent rally as the smart money are trying to selloff the price again. Obviously that we would need to wait for the candle close to confirm the Chaikin break below the zero line. Once everything aligns together we’re free to open our short position. Note* The trigger candle needs to have the closing price in the upper 25%. Step #4: Hide your protective Stop Loss above the previous pullback’s high. Using a stop loss is crucial if you want to have an idea of how much you’re about to lose on your trade. Never underestimate the power of placing a stop loss as it can be lifesaving. Simply hide your protective stop loss above the previous pullback’s high. Never use a mental stop loss and always commit a SL right at the moment you open your trades. Trading with a tight stop loss can give you the opportunity to not just have a better risk to reward ratio but also to trade bigger lot size. Step #5: You choose your Take profit or Take profit when the Chaikin Volume moves above +0.15 Once the Chaikin volume moves back above +0.15 it indicates that the buyers are stepping in and we want to take profits. We don’t want to risk giving back some of the profits gained so we liquidate our position at the first sign of the smart money stepping in on the other side of the market. We always can get back into the market later if the smart money show up again. Note** the above was an example of a SELL trade using the best volume indicator. Use the same rules for a BUY trade – but in reverse.
Short
by Tradingstrategyguides
5
QTUM/DOLLAR 2H DARVA BOX STRATEGYStep #1: Identify at least two Darvas boxes that are on top of each other The first trading rule is to let the market develop at least two Darvas Boxes. Basically, the two Darvas boxes are showing that the market is starting to move in steps to the downside. So at this point, the market also should be making lower highs followed by lower lows, which is the basic definition of an downtrend. In the real world, you’ll notice that the Darvas boxes don’t perfectly stack on top of each other. You’ll rarely find a series of Darvas boxes where the following box has the bottom perfectly aligned with the top/bottom of the previous box. You will notice that the price range of the second Darvas box can move into the space of the first Darvas box which still qualify for a valid Darvas box. Note* Big candle wicks are ignored when drawing the Darvas box. Use the closing price instead. Step #2: Draw a support line in the middle of the first Darvas box We’ve noted that there is no such thing as perfection when dealing with the price action. And since the Darvas boxes tend to overlap, another characteristic is that in most of the cases the top/bottom of the current box won’t exceed the middle of the previous Darvas box. In this case, we can anticipate that the third Darvas box will develop its top around the middle or bottom of the second Darvas box. Step #3: How to sell QTUM: Sell when we test the middle or bottom of the 2nd Darvas Box We want to buy low and sell high because that’s the rule number one to make consistent profits. We sell QTUM as soon as the middle or bottom of the 2nd Darvas box is tested this will ensure that we sell on a retracement in an already proven downtrend. Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss above resistance level in the second Darvas Box Our improved cryptocurrency sell strategy comes with the advantage of providing us with a very tight stop loss. We can hide our protective stop loss within or above the second Darvas box. A break above the second Darvas box will invalidate the whole price structure and it’s wise to get out of the trade as soon as possible. Two things can measure the success of a trading strategy. First, how tight the stop loss is and secondly the stop loss placement needs to be logical not just a random price coming out from over-optimization. Step #5: Take profit needs to be 2 or 3 times more than your stop loss Opening a trade is just the beginning; you also need an exit strategy to maximize your profits. It’s often said that it’s more important where you take profits than your entry strategy The professional traders place more weight and attention on the exit strategy because that’s how they make money. Probably, this is one of the oldest trading secrets that smart money doesn’t want you to know. Note** the above was an example of a SELL trade using the Free QTUM cryptocurrency strategy. Use the same rules for a BUY trade – but in reverse.
Q
by Tradingstrategyguides
Trading Strategy for Parabolic Markets [Part 1]I recently watched this podcast with Tone Vays. Tyler Jenks was the guest and he started out by saying: "This is the greatest opportunity I have seen in financial markets." It just so happens that I have been studying parabolic theory as it relates to hyperwaves. I am using that information to develop a trading strategy that is aimed towards capitalizing on parabolic moves. I will be using Tyler Jenks' hyperwave and consensio theories, Welles Wilder’s RSI, ADX and Parabolic SAR indicators, as well as Parabolic theory from Spyfrat’s Call. The TD' Sequential and Ichimoku Clouds will also be used to a much smaller degree. Below I have outlined the indicators/theories that are being used, my approach to entries, four options for a trailing stop loss in a parabolic market and a rudimentary price target calculation. If you are not interested in the minutia of my approach then feel free to skip straight to part 2 where positions will be outline. I have identified 5 stocks that are currently in a parabolic state and one that is primed to start one. Entries, stop losses and risk:reward calculations are provided for each. Three strategies for implementing trailing stop losses have also been included. Consensio Used to identify bull and bear markets. If price is above the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are all above the longer term MA’s then it is a bull market. If the price is below the MA’s and the shorter term MA’s are below the longer term then we are in a bear market. Hyperwave Parabolic Burst Continuation 30-prd RSI is used rather than the more commonly used 14-prd RSI If 30-prd RSI reaches 70 level, stock is in parabolic status The best setup is when both Weekly RSI and Daily RSI reach 70 with the weekly RSI > Daily. If both weekly and daily RSI are in parabolicy state but the daily RSI overtakes the weekly RSI the asset is said to be in a ‘Parabolic High Risk’ (PSR') state. Indicates that asset is at a high risk of a major correction (paraburst) If both weekly and daily RSI > 80 (regardless if w > d), the asset is said to be in ‘Extreme Parabolic High Risk’ (ePHR) state. Source ADX and DI ADX measures the strength of the trend. If < 20 then no trend exists. If > 25 then strength of trend is building. Horizontal lines can be drawn on the ADX to indicate when the move is becoming exhausted. Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI), together these measure trend direction. If +DI > -DI then trend is bullish. If +DI < -DI then trend is bearish. Crossover in the -DI and +DI can indicate a change in the market trend. Entries I will always line out a minimum of three entries. That is because I believe in entering into positions in thirds or fourths, only adding when the price moves in my favor. This allows me to minimize risk and emotional decision making. Trailing Stop Losses Bill Williams Fractals - Set slightly under most recent down fractal (if long). Parabolic SAR - Set slightly under most recent weekly SAR' or slightly under the previous 2 daily SARs. ADX - If > 50 on weekly and/or > 60 on daily RSI - If weekly and daily are > 80 Price Targets This is still a work in progress. I have noticed that each phase tends to go +90% - +95% from prior phases high. That can be used to give us a rough idea in order to calculate the risk:reward, however there is a lot more backtesting that still needs to be done. If you have significant data about the % ROI' each phase will return on average then I would be very interested in collaborating! Now that you understand the approach be sure to check out part 2 where 5 possible possible positions are outline
NYSE:BAEducation
by Sawcruhteez
1
Scenario: up or down? Scenario: up or down? Ethereum didn’t exactly do as we thought it would. We didn't get a clean break of our breakout level, and went down quite violently while bitcoin remained steady. Let’s stick to the charts and see what they tell us to do. DAILY First of all, We see the giant downwards channel we’re working on. We’re hanging on to the median line, and we want to see that hold to consider bullish trades Second, price is moving in an upwards channel. Second, ichimoku indicates that the downward move is consolidating, as all indicators move into equilibrium. How to treat this? Our setup remains valid, although we don’t think the move to be as strong as we initially expected (as bitcoin pushed through to the max target, ethereum didn't make it past the breakout level). Now if we get a clean break of the breakout level we’ll probably reach the max target around 565 . Let’s get a better look on the 2HR chart 2HR There’s a few interesting things going on here. Let’s break it down. First, look at the breakout of the prior breakout level. We broke out with an enormous hammer, followed by another enormous hammer, and then down. This was not a clean break, and we did not get in here. Traders getting in on conditional orders should be holding through, as our setup has not been invalidated, and are still on our way to our target. Now when do we get in? As we can see price is above the kumo, and tenkan and kijun are too. One possibility is getting in off a kijun bounce or kumo bounce around the 465 area. Another possibility is getting in on a clean break of the breakout level around 495, which will give us a much higher probability of reaching our target than entering now. Especially as we’re about to touch the kumo on the daily chart, possibly pushing the price further down in stead of up. If we do head downwards towards invalidation we may set up for a short trade, but more on that when the time comes So, again, and again, and again, we wait. We know our breakout level, we know our target, and we know our risk. We’ll see where price moves, do as it tells us to do. Breakout level: 495 Max target: 565 Invalidation 438 We hope you enjoyed this trade, and as always, remember, Be patient, only time will bring you profit. p.s. we regularly update our scenario's, follow us and receive to receive those updates!
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by DariusZen