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penny 1. **Rounding Bottoms** 🔵 The stock shows a series of **rounding bottoms** (marked on the chart), indicating a slow but steady shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. This pattern is like a **U-shape** 🏺, where the price slowly bottoms out and starts to rise again. The concept of **higher highs (HH)** ⬆️ rounding bottoms shows that each new bottom forms at a higher level than the previous one, reflecting growing strength in the stock. 2. **Volume Contraction** 📉 **Whenever stock forms a rounding bottom, volume contracts** 🛑. This is visible in the early stages of these rounded formations, where the volume bars shrink. Contraction often hints that **weak hands** are exiting the stock and strong hands are accumulating quietly. 3. **Volume Expansion on Breakout** 📈 As soon as the stock moves up**, you can see the **volume build** as well. This signals a breakout from the rounding bottom pattern as **new buyers** rush in with increasing enthusiasm 🔥. 4. **Multiple Rounding Patterns** 🔄 The stock exhibits multiple rounding patterns, and each is followed by a **rise** ⬆️ in price. This shows the stock moves in cycles, consolidating for some time before **breaking out** again. 5. **Recent Move and Strong Push** 💥 The most recent move in October 2024 is dramatic. The stock surged from around ₹180 to ₹207, a significant gain of about **16.64%** 📊, suggesting bullish momentum is accelerating 🚀. Look at the **volume spike** 🔊 accompanying the price surge—this confirms strong institutional or retail interest in the stock during this period. 6. **Key Takeaway: Patience Pays** ⌛ **Higher highs in rounding bottoms** indicate that the stock is slowly but consistently gaining strength. Though these formations take time to develop, they are often followed by strong upward movements 🏁. Extra tip: When you spot **volume contraction** during a rounded bottom, it could signal a potential **entry point** before a breakout. The expansion in volume later confirms a **strong uptrend**.
NSE:PENINDLong
by investigationofchart
What America Does with Its Money ? 🇺🇸 Decoding America's Spending: A Deep Dive into Government Finances This topic has been on the horizon for a while, and I think many new traders will be pleased to see it so LFG Just like a business, the government has its own financial records : 💰 Money comes in (primarily from taxes) 💸 Money goes out (to fund a variety of programs) With an expected gross domestic product (GDP) of nearly $29 trillion in 2024, the US remains the world’s largest economy, surpassing China’s $18.5 trillion. However, the US government isn’t exactly profitable. In fact, it’s been consistently running a growing deficit, raising concerns about its long-term financial stability. As a general election approaches, it's more important than ever to understand how the US generates and spends its money. So, let’s dive into the details Here’s a quick overview: - Revenue: A deep dive into taxes - Spending: Powering the nation - Bottom Line: Operating costs & the deficit - National Debt: A mounting challenge - The Future: America's financial outlook 1. Revenue: A Deep Dive into Taxes The US government operates on an enormous scale, and like any large organization, it requires a consistent stream of income to stay functional. However, unlike businesses that sell products or services, the government generates revenue primarily through taxes and fees In fiscal year 2023, the federal government collected an astounding $4.4 trillion So, where does all of this money come from? Let’s take a closer look: 👥 Individual Income Taxes:Nearly 50% of the government’s total revenue comes from individuals. Every time you receive a paycheck, a portion is automatically sent to Uncle Sam. This also includes taxes on capital gains from investments. 🏦 Social Security and Medicare Taxes: About 36% of revenue is generated from these taxes, which support programs like Social Security and Medicare for retirees and older adults. It’s a system where current workers help fund benefits for those who have already retired. 🏢 Corporate Income Taxes:Around 10% of the total revenue comes from businesses, which contribute a portion of their profits to the federal government. This is reflected in the income tax provisions that companies report. 🧩 Other Revenue:The remaining ~4% is sourced from various channels such as excise taxes (extra charges on goods like alcohol and tobacco), estate taxes, customs duties, and even fees collected from national park visits. 2. Spending: Powering the Nation Now that we’ve seen how money flows into the US Treasury, it’s time to explore the exciting part figuring out how it’s spent. The US government faces the enormous responsibility of keeping the country functioning, covering everything from national defense to healthcare and infrastructure. And that demands a massive amount of spending In fiscal year 2023, the federal government's net cost was $7.9 trillion, which is almost as large as the combined GDP of Germany and Japan the world’s third and fourth largest economies! -Outlays vs. Net Cost:In FY23, total outlays (the actual cash spent) reached $6.1 trillion. Outlays refer to the cash disbursements, while the net cost also includes accrual-based accounting adjustments, such as changes in the future value of federal employee retirement benefits. Who’s Deciding Where the Money Goes So, how does the government determine how to allocate all this money? It’s a balancing act involving both the President and Congress: -The President’s Proposal: The President begins the process by proposing a budget, outlining spending priorities based on requests from federal agencies. Think of it as a wish list—with a lot of extra zeros. -House and Senate Role:Next, the House and Senate Budget Committees take over. They review the President’s proposal, make adjustments, and ultimately create the final spending bills. This process involves hearings, debates, and a fair amount of political negotiation. Types of Spending -Mandatory Spending:These are legally required expenses, like Social Security and Medicare, which make up a significant portion of the budget. These costs rise over time, particularly as the population ages -Discretionary Spending:This is the part of the budget where the President and Congress decide how much to allocate to areas like defense, education, and more. In FY23, discretionary spending accounted for roughly 28% of total outlays, and it involves a yearly struggle as various departments compete for funding. -Supplemental Spending: In cases of emergency, Congress can pass additional funding outside the normal budget cycle, as it did for the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Where the Money Goes Now, let's dive deeper into the specific areas where all that spending is directed: -🏥 Healthcare Heavyweight:The Department of Health and Human Services commands the largest portion of spending, making up 22% of the net cost. This reflects the huge outlays for healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid. -👵 Social Safety Net:Programs like Veterans Affairs and the Social Security Administration also require significant funding, together accounting for 18% of the budget. This demonstrates the high priority placed on supporting veterans and retirees. -🫡 Defense and Security:The Department of Defense, tasked with ensuring national security, takes up 13% of government spending! -💸 The Interest Burden: A growing share of the budget is going toward paying interest on the national debt, consuming 9% of total spending. In FY23, government outlays represented 22% of the US economy (GDP). Over the past decade, this figure has remained slightly above 20%, excluding the exceptional impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. 3. Bottom Line: Operating Cost & Deficit When government expenditures exceed its revenue, a budget deficit occurs In FY23, the U.S. government recorded a $1.7 trillion deficit (revenue minus outlays). Here’s a breakdown of two key financial terms: -Net Operating Cost:This includes all costs incurred by the government, even if the payments haven’t been made yet. In FY23, the net operating cost was $3.4 trillion -Budget Deficit:This is a narrower measure, focusing only on the cash difference between revenue and outlays. As mentioned, the FY23 budget deficit stood at $1.7 trillion Both of these financial measures reveal a government consistently spending beyond its means—a pattern that has persisted for decades. In fact, over the past 50 years, the U.S. federal budget has only seen a surplus four times, with the most recent one occurring in 2001. 4. National Debt: A Mounting Challenge So, how does the government continue operating despite being in the red? It borrows money, mainly by issuing Treasury bonds, bills, and other securities. This borrowing adds to the national debt, which has grown into a major concern for the country’s economic outlook. As of September 2024, the national debt has reached a staggering $36 trillion. To put that in perspective, it's as if every person in the US owes over $100,000! Every time the government spends more than it earns, the shortfall is added to the national debt, which, in turn, increases the interest payments that need to be made in the future. Why the Debt Keeps Growing ? Several factors contribute to the relentless increase of the national debt: -Persistent Deficits:For decades, the government has continuously spent more than it collects in revenue, leading to ongoing debt accumulation. -Wars and Economic Crises: Significant events such as wars (like those in Iraq and Afghanistan) and economic crises (including the 2008 recession and the COVID-19 pandemic) often necessitate large government expenditures, further escalating the debt. -Tax Cuts and Spending Increases: Policy decisions that either reduce government revenue (through tax cuts) or increase spending (by introducing new programs or expanding existing ones) also play a role in growing the debt. The national debt presents a complicated issue without straightforward solutions. It requires balancing essential funding for programs and services while ensuring the nation’s long-term financial health. 5. The Future: America’s Finances The road ahead is filled with challenges. The national debt continues to rise, with a debt-to-GDP ratio surpassing 100%, raising concerns about the nation's long-term economic stability and ability to fulfill financial commitments. According to the Department of the Treasury, the current fiscal trajectory is unsustainable. Projections based on existing policies show a persistent gap between expected revenue and spending. Without substantial policy reforms, the national debt is likely to keep increasing. Several factors will influence the future of America’s finances: -Economic Growth: A strong economy generates higher tax revenues, making it easier to manage the debt. Conversely, slower growth could worsen the deficit and increase the debt burden. -Interest Rates:Rising interest rates would elevate the cost of servicing the national debt, redirecting funds from other vital programs. -Inflation: Excessive government debt can contribute to inflation, diminishing the purchasing power of individuals and businesses. -Political Polarization: The significant partisan divide in U.S. politics complicates consensus-building on fiscal policy and the implementation of long-term solutions to address the debt. -Demographic Shifts: An aging population increases pressure on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, leading to higher government spending and potentially widening the deficit. To tackle the challenges of growing debt and deficits, a combination of strategies is needed: -Controlling Spending:Identifying areas for budget cuts or finding more efficient methods to deliver government services. -Increasing Revenue:Exploring avenues for raising revenue through tax reforms or other means. -Fostering Economic Growth:Implementing policies that promote sustainable long-term economic growth and boost tax revenues. -Encouraging Bipartisan Cooperation:Seeking common ground across party lines to implement lasting fiscal reforms. The future of America’s finances remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: addressing the national debt and ensuring the nation’s long-term fiscal health will require tough decisions and a commitment to responsible financial management. What Can Be Done? It’s easy to feel overwhelmed by the scale of these challenges, but meaningful change often starts with informed citizens. As we head into a new election cycle, understanding how the US government manages its finances is more crucial than ever. So, what do you think should be America’s financial priorities? Should policymakers concentrate on cutting spending, raising taxes, or fostering economic growth?
TVC:DXYEducation
by moonypto
2
Advanced Micro Devices | AMD Team RED is READY As with any competitor, a quarterly earnings report from a peer can provide great insight into the market. For Advanced Micro Devices, the Q2'23 earnings report from Intel provides great views on the surging demand for AI chips and a rebound in PC demand crucial for AMD The most immediate signal from Intel beating Q2'23 estimates and guiding up for Q3 is the rebound in PC demand. Most importantly, the inventory correction appears over with OEMs no longer digesting chip inventory.Back in Q3'22, AMD shocked the market by cutting PC revenue estimates by $1 billion. The company quickly went from $2 billion in quarterly CPU sales for PCs to less than $1 billion. Intel still reported Q2 Client Computing revenue was down 12% YoY to $6.8 billion, but the number was up $1.0 billion sequentially. The chip giant guided up Q3 revenue to $13.4 billion, up $0.5 billion sequentially.In Q1'23, AMD reported that client revenues had fallen further to only $739 million. AMD CPU revenues are now far over $1 billion per quarter below the peak levels providing substantial upside potential when the PC market normalizes. Intel discussed a mixed picture for their business in the near term due to AI. The chip giant is seeing a wallet share shift from the sever CPU spend towards AI chips.The move is both good and bad for AMD. The company has the MI300 AI GPU chip hitting the market in Q4 providing a strong competitor to the booming demand for the H100 from Nvidia, but the chip isn't out on the market yet. In the near term, AMD may see some suppressed data center demand while heading into 2024. Ultimately, the company should see upside from AI demand for the MI300 along with the Alveo AI accelerator.On the Q2'23 earnings call, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger suggested the AI pipeline for 2024 had surged to $1 billion: In my formal remarks, we said we now have over $1 billion of pipeline, 6x in the last quarter. Going back a few months, Morgan Stanley had estimated the AI potential for AMD was only $400 million with upside potential to $1.2 billion. The Intel forecasts would suggest the AI potential for AMD is far higher next year when the MI300 is in full-scale production. Nvidia guided up current quarter sales estimates by 50% to over $11 billion. The company suggested data center sales would reach $7+ billion in the quarter. AMD has only seen data center sales reach $1.3 billion in quarterly sales leaving a huge gap from Nvidia. Even Intel still hit $4.0 billion in data center sales during Q2'23, though the amount is down nearly 20% form 2022 levels due in part to losing market share to AMD. The big issue for AMD is whether data center sales growth stalls causing a miss to 2H sales targets while booming AI demand ultimately boosts sales starting in Q1'24, or maybe Q4. The chip company peaked at quarterly sales of $6.6 billion back Q2'22 and the current quarterly analyst estimates aren't very aggressive. A rebound in PC demand to more normalized levels places AMD back at the Q4'23 revenue target of $6.5 billion alone. A PC rebound to normal digestion ($2 billion quarterly run rate) along with higher data center or AI demand leads to vastly higher revenues in 2024. The current analysts aren't even factoring in much growth in the Q2'24 revenue estimate of $6.76 billion. The amount is just 4% upside from Q2'22 despite potentially surging demand from AMD entering the AI GPU space. AMD is set to report earrings after the close on August 1. Investors should focus less on the Q2 numbers or even Q3 guidance and focus more on a return to more normalized revenue levels plus the upside from AI.Our view has long held that AMD has the earnings potential of $5 to $6 and the AI opportunity is all upside to this view. The key investor takeaway is that AMD is still $50 below all time highs while Nvidia has soared over $100 above the late 2021 highs. Investors should use the current weakness in AMD to load up on the stock while leaving some capital to buy any weakness following Q2 earnings due to the potential for near term disappointment leading to long term opportunities.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by moonypto
12
Airbnb | ABNB Airbnb is the leader in Alternative Accommodations and experiences. I believe their community of individual hosts and strong brand differentiates them from travel peers. The emerging trend of long-term stays would boost Airbnb’s profit margins and expand the entire travel accommodation market size Airbnb estimates its current total addressable market to be $3.4 trillion, including $1.8 trillion in short term stays, $ 210 billion in long term stays, and $ 1.4 trillion in experiences. Coupled with a notably underpenetrated market size, the global travel market is growing at an above GDP rate. Airbnb’s current market penetration represents less than 2% of the share. As such, there is a huge runway for Airbnb’s growth over the next decade. In terms of competition, most Online Travel Agencies (OTA) provide traditional hotel accommodation (Marriott, Hilton, Accor, Wyndham, and InterContinental, for example). These OTAs are not the real competitors for Airbnb. Instead, Booking.com (BKNG) is expanding its traditional hotel business into the alternative accommodation industry. Expedia (EXPE) entered the alternative accommodation market via the acquisition of VRBO in December 2015. However, Airbnb has the first-mover advantage with a very strong brand. I believe Airbnb’s technology and supplies are superior to their peers, and it is hard for Expedia and Booking.com to compete against Airbnb in the alternative accommodations space. One of the main expenses for Online Travel Agencies is sales and marketing. They have to spend billions of dollars on Google, Facebook, and other social media platforms to attract traffic. The table below shows the sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of sales. Both Booking.com and Expedia spend almost half of their sales on sales and marketing. According to Airbnb’s disclosure, 80% of their website traffic comes from direct and organic search. In contrast, Booking.com and Expedia only have 60% direct traffic. In other words, Airbnb has the highest brand awareness among these travelers. With a high ratio of direct traffic and organic search, Airbnb spends much less than its peers. In Q1 FY23’s earning call, Airbnb indicated their sales and marketing expense as percentage of sales would remain the same in FY23. In late 2019, Airbnb's costs were rising, and growth was slowing. They spent a huge amount of money on performance marketing, which was basically selling their products as a commodity. Their product was looking less different from their competitors. When the COVID occurred, they lost 80% of sales in eight weeks, and they shut down all marketing spending. Interestingly, when the travel market rebounded, Airbnb's business came back to almost the same level as before, with much less marketing expenses. Currently, they spend much less on performance marketing, and most of their expenses are focused on their products/services. They have had 600,000 articles about Airbnb. These efforts have put Airbnb in a much better shape today. 90% of Airbnb's hosts are individuals. Airbnb can capitalize on the personal experience provided by these unique individual hosts, as opposed to a standard hotel service. Customers can find unique properties, differentiated amenities, as well as local insights from these individual hosts. Airbnb is putting in a lot of effort into the experience market. In Q4 FY22's earnings call, Airbnb expressed that they were beginning to ramp up their Airbnb Experience business and expect to launch more products/services over the coming years. In my opinion, Airbnb Experience may not bring notable direct sales to Airbnb, but it would enhance the stickiness and loyalty of Airbnb's customers. Airbnb Experience would make the Airbnb platform unique and boost their sales indirectly. Furthermore, Airbnb Experience could become more relevant with AI technology. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb disclosed that they are building AI into their products. Airbnb is working with OpenAI ChatGPT, and Airbnb will embed ChatGPT into their app. The AI powered product will be launched next year. Leveraging AI technology, Airbnb can make their Airbnb Experience and accommodation recommendations more relevant to any consumer. To put it another way, Airbnb would know your preferences for travel destinations and accommodations before you start searching for anything. Long-term Stay: As disclosed, 20% of Airbnb's gross bookings are long-term stays currently. Long-term stays are the fastest-growing segment in terms of trip length. The pandemic also accelerated some inevitable growth for long-term stays. Long-term stays mean higher margins for both hosts and Airbnb. In Q1 FY23's earnings call, Airbnb indicated that long-term stays would be one of the biggest growth areas over the next five years. Airbnb made over a dozen upgrades to long-term stays based on affordability, and they also have new discounting tools for hosts on weekly and monthly stays. Airbnb expects more hosts to exclusively list long-term stays with Airbnb. In addition, 62% of Airbnb's guests are under 34 years old, and Airbnb is focusing on the next generation of travelers. These young customers are more likely to use Airbnb as the platform for long-term stays. The key thing to remember is that more long-term stays mean higher margins for Airbnb. Airbnb indicated that, in the current macroeconomic environment, consumers are looking for affordable ways to travel on Airbnb. Airbnb is adding more affordable accommodations to their platform. The average price of Airbnb rooms is only $67 per night. Before the pandemic, 80% of Airbnb's sales were coming from either cross-border or urban accommodations. The cross-border business would contribute more sales to Airbnb than other types of travel. The cross-border traveling could be very weak if high inflation persists. Despite this, the global travel market had been growing fast in the past, and I expect the growth will continue in the future. We are using a two-stage DCF model to estimate Airbnb’s fair value. In the model, we assume 20% of normalized sales growth rate, which we believe is quite conservative. We assume they can expand their operating margin by 30bps annually and will reach 25.5% in FY32.Their free cash flow conversion was quite healthy in the past, and we assume they will deliver 35.8% in FY32. In addition, we use 10% of WACC, and 15% of nonGAAP tax rate in the model. The present value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) over the next 10 years is estimated to be $32 billion, and the present value of terminal value is $88 billion. As such, the total enterprise value is estimated to be $120 billion. Adjusting gross debt and cash balance, the fair value of the stock price is $ 200, according to our estimate. All things considered, the huge underpenetrated market, strong brand awareness, and growing trend of long-term stays, in my opinion, will provide Airbnb with a huge runway for growth over the next decade. Their competitors are way behind them, and Airbnb would be the best player for the alternative accommodation service provider. In my view, the current stock price is significantly undervalued, and we encourage investors to buy during the weakness. at the end I always bet on Brian Chesky
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by moonypto
2
Shopify Inc | SHOP & AIShopify stock has seen sideways momentum for the last few weeks despite posting good results in the recent quarter. One of the reasons is the bull run in early 2023 due to which the stock has seen over 60% jump in year-to-date. Shopify has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters and there are strong tailwinds that can help the company improve its topline. At the same time, Shopify has been able to improve the conversion of Gross Merchandise Value or GMV into revenue due to better services. Shopify’s GMV has increased 11x between the last quarter of 2016 and the last quarter of 2022. During this time, Shopify’s quarterly revenue base has increased from $130 million to $1.7 billion or 13x. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was $195 billion and rapid growth in this key metric should help the company improve monetization. The company has also undertaken some cost-cutting which is having a positive impact on the bottom line. Analysts have forecasted Shopify’s EPS at $1 for fiscal 2025 which means that the stock is trading 60 times the EPS estimate of 2025. However, better monetization and focus on cost optimization could help the company deliver good EPS growth in the next few quarters. The PS ratio is also at 12 which is significantly lower than the pre-pandemic years. Shopify stock can deliver good returns in the long term as the company adds new services and improves its GMV growth trajectory. Shopify reported a GMV of $5.5 billion in December 2016 quarter. This has increased to $60 billion in the recent December 2022 quarter. Hence, Shopify’s GMV has increased to 11 times within the last seven years. On the other hand, Shopify’s revenue during the December quarter has increased by 13 times, from $130 million to $1.7 billion. This growth trend shows that the company is able to convert more GMV into actual revenue. One of the main reasons behind this trend is that Shopify is adding new services and it can charge customers a higher commission for these services. Shopify’s GMV for 2022 was a staggering $195 billion. The company has been able to reignite revenue growth in the last few quarters. The YoY revenue growth hit a bottom of 15% in June 2022. Since then the YoY revenue growth has picked up again as the company faces easier comps. In the recent quarter, the company reported YoY revenue growth of over 30% which is quite high when we consider that the GMV base of Shopify is more than $200 billion. The revenue growth will not build a bullish momentum for the stock unless the company can deliver sustainable profitability. During the pandemic years, Shopify’s revenue growth and high EPS helped the stock reach its peak. The company would need to focus on profitability in the next few quarters in order to rebuild a long-term bullish rally. Shopify has divested from its logistics business which should help improve the bottom line. We should also see better monetization of current services as the company tries to build new AI tools. The EPS estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead have steadily improved in the last few quarters. According to current consensus, Shopify should be able to deliver EPS of $1 in fiscal year 2025. However, it is highly likely that Shopify will beat these estimates as the company launches new initiatives to improve monetization of its massive GMV base. Shopify’s trailing twelve months EPS during the peak of the pandemic went to $2.6. If the company can get close to this EPS rate by 2025, we should see a significant bullish run in the stock. The recent cost-cutting should also help the company improve the bottom line. We have seen a similar trend in all the Big Tech companies who have reported a rapid growth in EPS as their headcount was reduced. While most analysts agree over the long-term revenue growth potential of Shopify, some of them are wary of the pricey valuation of the stock. Shopify is trading at 12 times its PS ratio. This is quite high when we compare with most of the other tech players and even Shopify’s peer like Wix (WIX), Etsy (ETSY), and others. However, it should be noted that Shopify’s PS ratio is significantly lower than the average PS multiple prior to the pandemic when the stock had an average PS ratio of over 20. Shopify’s revenue estimates for 2 fiscal years ahead is close to $10 billion which is equal to annualized revenue growth of over 25%. If we look at this metric, Shopify stock is trading at 7 times the revenue estimate of fiscal year 2025. This looks reasonable if the company can also manage to improve its EPS trend over the next few years. The long-term tailwind from ecommerce growth is still very strong. Shopify will benefit from an increase in GMV and a higher ecommerce market share in key markets. This should help the company gain pricing leverage over other competitors and also improve its monetization momentum Shopify has reported a faster revenue growth rate compared to its GMV growth in the last few years. This shows that the company is able to charge higher rate for additional services. There has been an acceleration in revenue growth over the last few quarters. Shopify has also divested from logistics services which were pulling down the profitability of the company. Shopify could deliver over 20% YoY revenue growth for the next few years as the company gains from strong tailwinds within the ecommerce business. If Shopify regains its earlier ttm EPS of $2 by 2025, we could see a strong bull run within the stock. While the stock is not cheap, it seems to be reasonably valued and longer-term investors could gain a better return from Shopify, making the stock a Buy at current price.
NYSE:SHOPLong
by moonypto
2
Walt Disney Co | DISThe Walt Disney Company is reportedly exploring options to sell or find a joint venture partner for its India digital and TV business, reflecting the company's ongoing strategic evaluation of its operations in the region. The talks are still in the early stages, with no specific buyer or partner identified yet. The outcome and direction of the process remain uncertain. Internally, discussions have commenced within Disney's headquarters in the United States as executives deliberate on the most viable course of action. These deliberations signify the company's willingness to adapt and optimize its business operations to align with changing market dynamics. The Wall Street Journal reported on July 11 that Disney had engaged with at least one bank to explore potential avenues for assisting the growth of its India business while sharing the associated costs. This approach suggests a proactive stance by the company to explore partnerships or arrangements that can drive growth while minimizing financial burdens. While it is too early to ascertain the exact direction this exploration will take, the developments in Disney's India business warrant attention, as they may shape the future landscape of the company's presence in this all-important region. The ongoing shift from traditional TV to streaming has placed Disney and its competitors in a costly and transformative phase. As part of this transition, Disney is actively cutting costs amid macroeconomic challenges that have impacted its advertising revenue and subscriber growth. CEO Bob Iger has been at the forefront of these changes, and his contract was recently extended through 2026 to allow him sufficient time to make transformative changes while strengthening the bench with future leaders of the company. One of the key considerations for Disney is evaluating its portfolio of TV networks, including ABC and ESPN. Bob Iger has expressed a willingness to be expansive in assessing the traditional TV business, leaving open the possibility of selling certain networks while retaining others acknowledging that networks like ABC may not be core to Disney's new business model. ESPN, as a cable TV channel, is being approached differently. Disney is open to exploring strategic partnerships, such as joint ventures or offloading ownership stakes, to navigate the challenges faced by the sports network. CEO Iger, who had previously expressed pessimism about the future of traditional TV, has found the situation to be worse than anticipated since his return to Disney. Although the linear networks segment, which accounts for Disney's TV properties such as ABC, National Geographic, FX, and FreeForm, has struggled to grow in the recent past, this segment is still an important part of the company's business, which is evident from the positive operating income reported by this segment in fiscal 2022. As below data reveals, the DTC business and content licensing made operating losses in FY 2022 which were offset by the operating income reported by linear networks. For this reason, investors will have to closely monitor a potential sale of TV assets to evaluate the impact of such a decision on Disney's profitability. The broadcasting landscape is experiencing a significant shift, with uncertainties surrounding its future and the changing nature of consumer preferences. While linear television channels are not expected to disappear immediately, their consumption continues to decline as viewers increasingly favor OTT platforms. This transition represents a fundamental trend shaping the industry. In terms of business models, subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) services will continue to grow with targeted advertising. As the ascent of streaming video continues, cable, satellite, and internet TV providers in the United States faced their most significant subscriber losses to date in the first quarter of 2023. Analyst estimates indicate a collective shedding of 2.3 million customers during this period. Consequently, the total penetration of pay-TV services in occupied U.S. households, including internet-based services like YouTube TV and Hulu, dropped to its lowest point since 1992, standing at 58.5%, according to Moffett's calculations. In Q1, pay-TV services in the U.S. witnessed a nearly 7% decline in customers compared to the previous year, with cable TV operators experiencing a 9.9% decline, while satellite providers DirecTV and Dish Network registered subscriber losses of 13.4%. Virtual MVPDs, which are multichannel video programming distributors, also suffered significant losses, shedding 264,000 customers during the quarter. Comcast, the largest pay-TV provider in the country, lost 614,000 video customers in Q1, and Google's YouTube TV was the only tracked provider to experience subscriber growth, adding an estimated 300,000 subscribers during the period. These trends illustrate the challenges faced by the pay-TV industry, with factors like increasing sports-broadcast fees driving retail prices higher, leading to cord-cutting and subsequent price adjustments by distributors. By 2026, e-Marketer predicts that the number of non-pay TV households will surpass pay TV households by over 25 million. In efforts to achieve profitability in the streaming business, Disney has implemented significant cost-cutting measures, including saving $5.5 billion through cost reductions and layoffs, and a focus on making Disney+ and Hulu more profitable. Disney aims to enhance Hulu integration, seeing it as a vital component of the company's transition from TV to a streaming-only model. Discussions are also underway for Disney to acquire Comcast Corporation's (CMCSA) stake in Hulu, as Disney currently holds 66% ownership. The company believes that the integration of Hulu and Disney+ will bolster the streaming business and contribute to its profitability. While the negotiations with Comcast over Hulu's valuation are ongoing, the combined offering of Disney+ and Hulu is expected to be available to consumers by the end of the calendar year. Although Disney's plans for ESPN+ and the fate of its other cable channels, such as the Disney Channel, remain uncertain, Bob Iger expects ESPN to eventually move to a streaming-only model, acknowledging the disruptive nature of the traditional TV business model. The discussions surrounding Walt Disney's TV and streaming business in India come at a critical juncture for the company, as it grapples with intensified competition and significant challenges in the market. The emergence of Reliance Industries' JioCinema streaming platform has posed a considerable threat to Disney's dominance, especially after Reliance secured digital rights for the highly popular Indian Premier League cricket tournament. This strategic move by Reliance, which offered free access to the tournament earlier this year, caused a substantial decline in Disney+ Hotstar's subscribers, a popular streaming service under Disney's India business. Additionally, Viacom18, which is backed by Reliance and Paramount Global (PARA), made a significant impact on Disney's market position in India. Through its partnership with Warner Bros, Viacom18 secured content rights to popular shows on HBO including Succession, previously aired on Disney's platform. This collaboration forms a formidable alliance challenging Disney's dominance in the Indian market. Reliance's freemium model poses the most significant threat to Disney's current position. By offering content for free on its streaming platform, JioCinema attracted a substantial number of subscribers through the broadcast of IPL. With its ample cash reserves, Reliance has the advantage of focusing on subscriber growth without immediately focusing on monetization strategies. The loss of streaming rights for the IPL, combined with a subsequent decline in paid subscribers, had a profound impact on Disney's reputation in India in the first quarter of this year, which could very well be the most challenging Q1 Disney has had in India for a long time. A report on video consumption trends in India by Media Partners Asia sheds light on the dynamic landscape of the online video sector in India. For the 15 months that ended in March 2023, total consumption across the online video sector reached a staggering 6.1 trillion minutes. During this period, Disney+ Hotstar emerged as the dominant player in premium VOD, capturing 38% of viewing time. The report attributes Hotstar's success to its strong sports offerings and the depth of its Hindi and regional entertainment content. During the survey period, Zee and Sony together held a 13% share of the Indian premium video sector viewing time. While the two companies are expected to merge pending regulatory approval, they are projected to operate independently for another year, benefiting from strong engagement across sports as well as regional, local, and international content. Prime Video and Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) collectively accounted for a 10% share of viewership in the premium VOD category. Prime Video also garnered a significant portion of viewership from regional Indian titles. The report emphasizes that local content dominates premium VOD viewership, particularly outside the sports category, while international content leads paid tiers. Catch-up TV is prevalent in the free tier across freemium streaming platforms. Although Disney was the clear winner in 2022, this report highlights a significant shake-up in the market brought about by the transformation of JioCinema. JioCinema, which previously held a mere 2% share of the premium video market, experienced a major upswing in growth since April. This surge can be attributed to JioCinema's decision to offer free live streaming of the popular IPL cricket tournament, a property that was previously exclusive to Disney-owned media in India. Despite technical glitches impacting user experience, JioCinema witnessed a more than 20-fold increase in consumption in April 2023, enabling it to dominate the premium VOD category. The report raises questions about JioCinema's ability to sustain this growth and scale in the absence of IPL action after June 2023. That being said, this could be an early indication of growth challenges Disney-owned brands may face in India. Star India, now known as Disney Star following the rebranding last year, is expected to experience a revenue drop of around 20% to less than $2 billion for the fiscal year ending September 2023. Additionally, EBITDA is projected to decline by approximately 50% compared to the previous year. Furthermore, Hotstar is estimated to lose 8 to 10 million subscribers in its fiscal third quarter as well. Given the current scenario, finding an outright buyer for Disney's India business is expected to be challenging. When Disney acquired the entertainment assets of 21st Century Fox in 2019, the enterprise value of the Indian business was estimated at around $15-16 billion. This high valuation, coupled with the intense competition and declining subscriber base, presents a complex landscape for potential buyers or partners. I believe Disney stock is attractively valued today given that the company's streaming business has a long runway for growth internationally while its brand assets will continue to drive revenue higher. As an investor, I am both concerned and curious about what the future holds for Disney's linear networks segment. Going by the recent remarks of CEO Iger, major changes are on their way. A strategic decision to divest non-core assets, in my opinion, will trigger a positive response from the market. That being said, a major divestment of TV assets could materially impact the company's profitability in the next 3-5 years until its streaming business scales enough to replace lost revenue from the linear networks segment. Investors will have to closely monitor new developments to identify a potential inflection point in Disney's story.
NYSE:DIS
by moonypto
4
WALMART: Forming a Megaphone Top. Sell signal.Walmart is fairly bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.199, MACD = 0.980, ADX = 43.049) as the price is near the top of the 2024 Bullish Megaphone and has been forming a top since the September 16th High. This slowdown can be seen on the two prior top formations and is more obvious on the 1D RSI which prints a Channel Down when the price peaks on a Channel Up. This Bearish Divergence is the signal we need to go short next week. We aim for just under the 1D MA50 (TP = 77.50) or take the profit if the RSI hits the buy entry line first. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYSE:WMTShort
by InvestingScope
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT. 14-18th: BUY THE S&P 500? YES!The S&P 500 looks to have supporting structure for higher prices. The bullish momentum is there, and Friday's close put that on display. There is some potential for a limited pullback, though. But I would view it as a better price for a possible long entry. What are your thoughts....? Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
ELI LILLY: This consolidation is a buy opportunity.Eli Lilly is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.880, MACD = 1.910, ADX = 25.797) as well as on 1W as for the past 7 weeks it has turned sideways. This consolidation is taking place half-way through the new bullish wave of the Channel Up that started in early 2023. As you see it is supported by the 1W MA50 and every bullish wave in the beginning was almost at +50% but the latest one was +35%. Consequently we expect a minimum of +46.22% from the bottom and that's what we're aiming for (TP = 1,095). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NYSE:LLYLong
by InvestingScope
Valero Energy (VLO) Analysis Company Overview: Valero Energy NYSE:VLO continues to reinforce its leadership in the energy sector, with an increasing focus on sustainable fuels and low-carbon solutions. Through initiatives like supplying sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in Florida, Valero is well-positioned to capture new revenue streams, particularly as global demand for clean energy intensifies. Additionally, its Diamond Green Diesel venture—a partnership aimed at producing renewable diesel—further enhances its capability to thrive in the evolving energy landscape. Key Catalysts: Sustainable Fuels Focus: Valero's efforts in SAF production demonstrate its commitment to addressing the growing demand for green energy, particularly in the aviation sector, which is undergoing a transformation toward low-emission fuels. Diamond Green Diesel Venture: This strategic initiative supports Valero’s transition toward low-carbon energy, with renewable diesel offering strong revenue potential in a market that increasingly favors sustainable alternatives. Strong Financials: Valero’s strong cash flow generation, combined with a massive $144.77 billion revenue in recent reports, showcases its resilience and ability to fund growth in sustainable energy projects. Regulatory Tailwinds: With more stringent emissions regulations globally, Valero’s focus on low-carbon and sustainable fuel solutions aligns with long-term policy trends aimed at reducing carbon footprints across industries. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on VLO above $119.00-$120.00, supported by Valero’s robust financials and strategic push toward sustainable energy solutions. Upside Potential: Our upside target for VLO is $181.00-$182.00, driven by increasing demand for sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, and other clean energy initiatives, alongside strong revenue and cash flow trends. 🚀 VLO—Powering the Future with Sustainable Fuel Solutions. #SustainableEnergy #SAF #LowCarbonSolutions
NYSE:VLOLong
by Richtv_official
TESLA – Slippery Slope to 208 or a Drop All the Way to 191?Alright, traders, here’s the lowdown on Tesla (TSLA). Things are looking a bit dicey as the price slips through key zones. If the bulls don’t step in soon, we could see TSLA sliding down to the 208-207 range (black box). But if that level doesn't hold, we’re in for a deeper pull toward the 191-188 zone (orange box). Key Levels to Watch: Current Price: 218 First Support: 208-207 (black box) – Bulls need to show up here, or it’s more downside. Deeper Target: 191-188 (orange box) – If sellers keep control, this could be the next landing zone. The sellers seem to have the upper hand for now, but a bounce from 208 could shift things in the bulls' favor. Keep an eye on lower time frames to catch any early signs of a reversal. If this analysis helped you, drop your thoughts in the comments—do we hold 208, or are we heading for 191? Follow, share, and spread the word if you found this valuable. Stay tuned for more updates. Mindbloome Trader
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Mindbloome-Trading
2
SEDG Solaredge - More losses ahead?Solaredge Chart Analysis The stock is in a clear downtrend since February with a Significant resistance level at around $32.11 The Minor support seems at around $17.12 Increased volume during price drops indicates strong selling pressure and Prices below the EMA are clues for bearish momentum Key Points for a Trade Entry: Consider waiting for a break below support or a pullback at resistance. Stop-Loss: Set slightly above recent swing high ($24) to manage risk. In case of pullback look for Stops at around $32.90 Trend continuation: Be cautious at EMA crossover or strong volume spikes, which could indicate a trend reversal. Additional Clues: Todays Put Option Volume increased 1,4 times of what was expected indicating bearish flow
NASDAQ:SEDGShort
by candlefire-trading
1
WIPRO LONG Trade Hits First Target! Bullish Momentum BuildsWipro has shown a strong bullish movement, reaching Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 550.85 on 14th October at 12:45 PM. Key Levels Entry : 540.80 – Wipro started its upward movement from this key support level, leading to a breakout. Stop-Loss (SL) : 532.65 – This level is positioned below the entry to protect against any potential downside risk. Take Profit 1 (TP1) : 550.85 – Already achieved, confirming the strength of the uptrend. Take Profit 2 (TP2) : 567.10 – The next target to watch as bullish momentum continues. Take Profit 3 (TP3) : 583.35 – If buying pressure persists, this level could be tested next. Take Profit 4 (TP4) : 593.40 – The ultimate target signaling the potential for a strong bullish rally. Trend Analysis The price is clearly above the support of the Risological dotted trendline, indicating a strong uptrend. The sharp upward movement followed by a small consolidation suggests the possibility of further gains. With TP1 reached, the next targets are in focus, and a move above 550.85 will likely lead to TP2 being hit. Wipro has reached its first profit target at 550.85, confirming bullish momentum. The next targets at 567.10 and beyond could be reached if the uptrend holds, with solid support from the Risological trendline and strong buying interest.
NSE:WIPROLong
by ProfitsNinja
NuScale Power Corporation (SMR) AnalysisCompany Overview: NuScale Power Corporation NYSE:SMR is at the forefront of the nuclear energy revolution, leveraging its cutting-edge small modular reactor (SMR) technology to address the growing demand for clean, reliable energy. With the backing of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) certification, NuScale holds a strong first-mover advantage in the nuclear energy space, positioning it for significant growth as global efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources accelerate. Key Catalysts: NRC Certification: NuScale is the only SMR company with NRC certification, giving it a significant regulatory and market advantage in deploying its innovative nuclear reactors. Growing Demand for Clean Energy: As countries worldwide commit to reducing carbon emissions, demand for clean nuclear energy is rising. NuScale’s scalable, safe, and cost-effective SMR technology is well-suited to meet this need. Data Center Opportunities: In addition to energy generation, NuScale is exploring applications for its SMRs in the data center industry, offering on-site, scalable power solutions that align with the industry's increasing energy demands. Global Expansion: NuScale's technology appeals to both developed and developing nations as a reliable and safe alternative energy source, with strong international interest in SMR deployment. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on SMR above $10.50-$11.00, reflecting the company’s first-mover status in the nuclear SMR market and its potential to capture significant market share in both energy and data center applications. Upside Potential: Our target range for SMR is $23.00-$24.00, driven by growth in clean energy adoption and increasing demand for scalable power solutions in high-growth sectors like data centers. 🚀 SMR—Pioneering the Future of Clean, Reliable Nuclear Power. #NuclearEnergy #CleanEnergy #SmallModularReactors
NYSE:SMRLong
by Richtv_official
Vertiv Holdings (VRT) AnalysisCompany Overview: Vertiv Holdings NYSE:VRT is strategically positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for data center infrastructure, with a particular focus on edge computing and the expanding 5G networks. As companies across various sectors accelerate their digital transformation, Vertiv's role in providing critical infrastructure solutions, including liquid cooling technology, is crucial for the operation and efficiency of modern data centers. Key Catalysts: Edge Computing & 5G Growth: The rise of edge computing and 5G networks increases the need for efficient, reliable data center infrastructure, a core competency for Vertiv. Critical Infrastructure Expertise: Vertiv's leadership in liquid cooling and other essential data center technologies will be increasingly in demand as data centers evolve and expand. Energy Consumption in Data Centers: With U.S. data centers projected to account for a growing share of electricity consumption, Vertiv’s infrastructure solutions—designed to enhance energy efficiency and optimize operations—are expected to become even more vital. Digital Transformation: The ongoing shift toward cloud services, AI, and machine learning will fuel greater data center demand, benefitting Vertiv’s business model. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on VRT above $89.00-$91.00, driven by its market-leading solutions in data center infrastructure and strong growth potential. Upside Potential: Our target range for VRT is $140.00-$145.00, reflecting the company’s strategic position in critical growth sectors like 5G, edge computing, and data centers. 🚀 VRT—Leading Data Center Infrastructure into the Digital Future. #DataCenters #EdgeComputing #5G
NYSE:VRTLong
by Richtv_official
Energy vs Tech : Analyzing Sector Performance and Market TrendsIntroduction: The comparison between the energy sector (XLE) and the technology sector (XLK) provides valuable insights into current market trends. As the largest sector in the S&P 500, XLK often serves as a barometer for broader market strength. Conversely, when XLE outperforms XLK, it may signal caution, as XLE's smaller size limits its impact on the overall index. Analysis: Sector Comparison: XLK's performance is crucial in indicating market health. When XLK outperforms, it generally suggests a robust market outlook. On the other hand, if XLE starts to outperform XLK, this may indicate potential weakness in broader market conditions. Inflationary Pressures: This ratio between XLE and XLK also reflects inflationary trends. A strong performance from XLE relative to XLK may signal rising inflationary pressures, which investors should closely monitor. Charting the Pattern: The energy sector has formed an inverted saucer pattern. A breakout from this pattern could signify a positive upward trend and possibly a return to inflation. Trade Setup: Entry Point: Monitor the XLE/XLK ratio for a potential breakout confirmation. Stop Loss: Consider setting a stop loss below the recent support level identified on the chart. Target Price: Set a target based on the measured move from the breakout point of the inverted saucer pattern. Conclusion: The comparative performance of XLE and XLK offers essential insights into market dynamics and inflationary pressures. Traders should keep an eye on the potential breakout from the inverted saucer pattern in XLE, as it may indicate a shift in market trends. What are your thoughts on this analysis? Share your insights in the comments! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the XLE/XLK ratio and the inverted saucer pattern) #Energy #Technology #MarketTrends #Inflation #XLE #XLK
AMEX:XLE
by Richtv_official
Gatos Silver (GATO) AnalysisCompany Overview: Gatos Silver NYSE:GATO is positioned for an exceptional 2024, with CEO Dale Andres expressing confidence in hitting the higher end of silver production forecasts. The company’s 70% stake in the Los Gatos Joint Venture (LGJV) significantly enhances its value proposition, while ongoing aggressive exploration efforts in the region provide opportunities for new discoveries and resource expansion. Key Catalysts: Strong Silver Production: GATO is expected to deliver silver production at the upper end of its projections for 2024, which could be a key driver for stock performance. Los Gatos Joint Venture (LGJV): The company's 70% ownership in LGJV offers a solid foundation for growth, with access to one of the highest-grade silver districts globally. Exploration & Resource Expansion: GATO's exploration efforts in the Los Gatos district continue to uncover new opportunities for resource expansion, bolstering future revenue prospects. Revenue Growth: In Q1 2024, Gatos Silver reported a 16% increase in revenue, largely due to higher sales volumes, a positive sign of operational efficiency and market demand. Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on GATO above $12.80-$13.00, supported by the company’s strong silver production outlook and exploration upside. Upside Potential: Our target range for GATO is $25.00-$26.00, driven by production growth, exploration success, and increasing revenues. 🚀 GATO—Silver Shining Bright with Exploration and Production Growth. #SilverStocks #Mining #Exploration
NYSE:GATOLong
by Richtv_official