S&P500 - Was this already the all time high?SP:SPX is still massively bullish on the smaller timeframes despite retesting strong resistance.
Sometimes trading can be soo simple but yet rewarding. You simply have to buy the S&P500 at support and sell your position at resistance. At the moment, the S&P500 is once again retesting a resistance trendline, which has been pushing price lower for more than 14 years and there is just an extraordinary high chance that we will again see a rejection. Don't say I did't warn you!
Levels to watch: $5.600, $4.800
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Stockmarketanalysis
AMD - Correction of -40% over?NASDAQ:AMD just created a new all time high, however we have to be quite careful now.
Volatility is the basis of every major trading position and trading profit. Advanced Micro Devices is just such a stock which offers volatile swings every now and then. Currently Advanced Micro Devices is retesting the previous all time high which is now acting as support. I do expect a move higher but there is simply no good risk to reward setup at the current levels.
Levels to watch: $155, $110
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
NSE:CERA India toilet boom 🚽 get set go..Half of India couldn't access a toilet 5 years ago. Modi built 110M latrines
Incorporated in July 1998, Cera Sanitaryware Ltd is headed by Mr Vikram Somany; the company manufactures sanitaryware and faucets and outsources wellness products and tiles. The sanitaryware and faucet plants are in Kadi, Gujarat, with capacity of 36 lakh and 18.5 lakh pieces per annum, respectively.
#
The Company has been constantly launching new designs in Sanitaryware, Faucets and Tiles. The new designs are indigenously developed by in-house teams, after feedback from the market. This helps the Company to be seen a leader in product offerings. #
NSE:CERA
Microstrategy Inc. The Money SongMicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, announced a 10-for-1 stock split on Thursday.
The company said the shares will be split into class A common stock and class B common stock “to make MicroStrategy’s stock more accessible to investors and employees.” The move comes amid a lull for the price of bitcoin, which has been stuck in a tight range since about March, but which many investors expect to rebound in the second half of the year.
The shares rose about 6% but are currently about 34% off an all-time high of $1,999.99, reached in March of this year.
In technical terms Microstrategy tripled in price over the past 12 months and doubled in price in 2024, outperforming the major crypto assets like BTC, ETH, and Total crypto market cap as well.
The main technical graph indicates perhaps it has much more to deliver.
//
Money talks
Money shouts
Don't take much to hear
Like it or not
You need a lot
If you're gonna make a life down here
SPX: The corrective scenarioLast week's selloff if making everyone nervous. Even though we are seeing a bearish engulfing candle, a weekly RSI negative divergence and severe weakness in tech sector, the selloff is not looking like a panic deal. This could be a calculated, well-planned correction just like Summer of last year that lasted from July through October. The severity might increase in the coming weeks and until we see another higher high, this could be the temporary end of the roaring bull market. I am not expecting a crash scenario as of yet and there is no sign of any major negative market condition as many are predicting. If this correction is a higher degree wave 4, then it could last for longer than 3 months. And, if it is, in fact an ending diagonal formation then price can drop below 4800 to wave 1 territory. As long as price is not below 3500 (which is a very long way down), we will still see a wave 5 incoming.
There is a much stronger alternate bullish scenario in the play. But, at the moment we will need to get through the corrective cycle. If, in the next 2 to 3 weeks, bulls just ignore the bearish symptoms and plow through the last ATH, then the ultra bull scenario might come into picture. At the moment, I am being cautious and going in 50% cash with stop loss set for everything....
Nvidia - Still waiting for a correction!NASDAQ:NVDA is clearly overextended but still not bearish at all on the smaller timeframes.
If you watched my previous analysis on Nvidia, you know that I have been bearish for quite some time and totally wrong so far. But there was never ever any single sign of weakness so I did not take any trade betting on price to go down. Nvidia is still retesting resistance, it is still somewhat overextended and I still do expect a visible rejection away towards the downside.
Levels to watch: $140
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Apple - Caution at the all time high!NASDAQ:AAPL just created a new all time high, however we have to be quite careful now.
Trading cycles in an overall uptrend is one of the most profitable trading approaches. You are trying to capitalize on the major upswings and missing out on the major downswings. Apple is currently retesting resistance and probably creating the top of the previous cycle. I am waiting for a move back to support before we will then see the next major bullish cycle on Apple.
Levels to watch: $240, $170
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Shelter Inflation. The Tail That Wags The DogInflation is finally cooling off as inflation gradually loosened its grip on Wall Street and the economy in 2023, raising hopes for a gentler Federal Reserve and further gains for the market in 2024.
Stocks rallied to their best 9-weeks stripe over the past 20 years in November and December, 2023 (so-called 'Santa Rally') as investors raised their bets that the Fed is done hiking interest rates to fight inflation.
6Mo USCPI Inflation was at its lowest levels since Covid-19 pandemic in early 2023
Top 4 U.S. stock market Indices were in rally in 2023
The economy has cooled under the weight of rising interest rates, as the central bank intended, but remains surprisingly resilient.
Energy prices are down. Food prices are mellowing out. But the cost of having a place to live is still rising much faster than just about every other essential.
U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation
Headline inflation was up 3.1% from a year ago, and so-called "core" inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 4%. But the cost of shelter, which is the biggest component of the basket of goods the BLS uses to measure the cost of living, was up 6.5%.
"The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy," read the Bureau of Labor Statistics report accompanying the latest data on consumer prices.
"The shelter index increased 6.5 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the total increase."
When the covid-19 pandemic hit, the cost of housing surged as those who could afford it sought out bigger homes and many city-dwellers transitioned to the suburbs.
What goes into Consumer Price Index
That and a glut of savings unhindered by low interest rates combined to exacerbate what had been a long-simmering Housing crisis the U.S.
But now that baked-in price hikes and rising mortgage rates spurred by tightened Federal Reserve monetary policy have put a bit of a damper on things, the housing market is also starting to cool.
U.S. Single Family Home Prices in "Bubble Mode"
30Yrs Fixed Mortgage Rate is at 20Yrs Highs.
30Yrs Mortgage Annual Payment U.S. Single Family Home, only Interest.
Housing prices tend to be “much stickier” than most costs, which means that when they rise we feel it more - and for longer (read - "for ever").
Housing prices do not compressed like just baked iPhone or iMac later in few years of its release.
- Does all af that mean that pre-covid levels of relative housing affordability are coming back?
- Sure "No". But at least American wages, which are still rising faster than before the pandemic thanks to increased worker power, will have a little chance to make up some lost ground.
The issue is still Federal Reserve' lagged tightening policy, that is "The Tail That Wags The Dog".
NIKE INC. AMERICAN SHOOES LOOSING GLOSS, AHEAD OF U.S. RECESSIONNIKE Inc. or Nike is an American multinational company specializing in sportswear and footwear.
The company designs, develops, markets and sells athletic footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment and services.
The company was founded by William Jay Bowerman and Philip H. Knight more than 40 years ago, on January 25, 1964, and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon.
As of July 15, 2024, NIKE (NKE) shares were down more than 33 percent in 2024, making them a Top 5 Underperformer among all the S&P500 components.
Perhaps everything would have been "normal", and everything could be explained by the one only unsuccessful December quarter of 2023, when the Company’s revenue decreased by 2 percentage points to $12.6 billion, which turned out to be lower than analyst estimates.
But one circumstance makes everything like a "not just cuz".
This is all because among the Top Five S&P500 Outsiders, in addition to NIKE, we have also shares of another large shoe manufacturer - lululemon athletica (LULU), that losing over 44 percent in 2024.
Influence of macroeconomic factors
👉 The economic downturn hurts most merchandise retailers, but footwear companies face the greatest risk to loose profits, as higher fixed costs lead to larger profit declines when sales come under pressure.
👉 The Nasdaq US Benchmark Footwear Index has fallen more than 23 percent since the start of 2024 as consumer spending is threatened by continued rising home prices, banks' reluctance to lend, high lending rates, and high energy and energy costs. food products - weaken.
👉 In general, the above-mentioned Footwear Sub-Industry Index continues to decline for the 3rd year in a row, being at levels half as low as the maximum values of the fourth quarter of 2021.
Investment Domes worsen forecasts...
👉 In the first quarter of 2024, Goldman Sachs made adjustments to its forecast for Nike shares, lowering the target price to $120 from the previous $135, while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The company analyst cited ongoing challenges in Nike's near-term growth trajectory as the main reason for the adjustment, anticipating potential underperformance compared to market peers, noting that Nike's 2025 growth expectations have become "more conservative."
👉 Last Friday, Jefferies Financial Group cut its price target from $90.00 to $80.00, according to a report.
👉 Several other equity analysts also weighed in on NKE earlier in Q2 2024. In a research note on Friday, June 28, Barclays downgraded NIKE from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating and lowered their price target for the company from $109.00 to $80.00.
👉 BMO Capital Markets lowered their price target on NIKE from $118.00 to $100.00 and set an overweight rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, June 28th.
👉 Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an equal-weight rating and set a $79.00 price target (up from $114.00) on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th.
👉 Oppenheimer reiterated an outperform rating and set a $120.00 price target on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th.
👉 Finally, StockNews.com downgraded NIKE from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday, June 21st.
...and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy
Perhaps everything would have been fine, and all the deterioration in forecasts could have been attributed to the stretching spring of price decline, if not for one circumstance - it is not the ratings that are declining due to the decline in share prices, but the shares themselves are being pushed lower and lower, as one after another depressing ones are released analytical forecasts from investment houses.
16 years ago. How it was
On January 15, 2008, shares of many shoe companies, including Nike Inc. (NKE) and Foot Locker Inc. (FL) fell after investment giant Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its stock price targets, warning that the U.S. recession would drag down the companies' sales in 2008 as consumers spend more cautiously. "The recession will further increase the impact of the key headwind of a limited number of key commodity trends needed to fuel consumer interest in the sector," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients.
In early 2008, Goldman downgraded athletic shoe retailer Foot Locker to "sell" from "neutral" and cut its six-month share price target from $17 to $10, saying it expected U.S. sales margins to continue to decline in 2008 despite store closures.
The downgrade was a major blow to Foot Locker, which by early 2008 had already seen its shares fall 60 percent over the previous 12 months as it struggled with declining sales due to declining demand for athletic shoes at the mall and a lack of exciting fashion trends in the market. sports shoes.
Like now, at those times Goldman retained its recommendation rating to “buy” Nike Inc shares, based on general ideas about the Company’s increasing weight over the US market, topped off with theses about the Company’s international visibility, as well as robust demand ahead of the Beijing Olympics.
However Goldman lowered its target price for the shares from $73 to $67 ( from $18.25 to $16.75, meaning two 2:1 splits in Nike stock in December 2012 and December 2015).
Although Nike, at the time of the downturn in forecasts, in fact remained largely unscathed by the decline in demand for athletic footwear among US mall retailers, it reported strong second-quarter results in December 2007 (and even beating forecasts for strong demand for its footwear in the US and growth abroad) , Goldman Sachs' forecasts for Nike's revenue and earnings per share to decline were justified.
Later Nike' shares lost about 45 percent from their 2008 peaks, and 12 months later reached a low in the first quarter of 2009 near the $40 mark ($10 per share, taking into account two stock splits).
The decline in Foot Locker shares from the 2008 peaks 2009 lows was even about 80 percent, against the backdrop of the global recession and the banking crisis of 2007-09.
Will history repeat itself this time..!? Who knows..
However, the main technical graph says, everything is moving (yet) in this direction.
SWING IDEA - SAFARI IND (INDIA)Consider a compelling swing trade opportunity in Safari Industries , a renowned luggage and travel accessories manufacturer in India.
Reasons are listed below :
Flag and Pole Pattern : Safari Industries displays a flag and pole pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the prior uptrend.
Bullish Marubozu Candle in Weekly Timeframe : The presence of a bullish Marubozu candlestick pattern on the weekly timeframe suggests strong buying momentum and potential upward movement.
50 EMA Support : The stock finds support at the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the bullish bias and indicating potential for upward momentum.
0.382 Fibonacci Support : Safari Industries receives support at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, providing a solid foundation for potential upward movement.
Support at 1700 Level : The stock finds support at the 1700 level, indicating a strong buying interest and potential for a bullish reversal.
Higher Highs : Safari Industries consistently forms higher highs, reflecting a trend of increasing bullish momentum and reinforcing the potential for further gains.
Target - 2320 // 2730
Stoploss - weekly close below 1700
DISCLAIMER -
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@visionary.growth.insights
Intel - Retest, reversal and rejection!NASDAQ:INTC has been establishing a slight bullish trend over the past couple of years.
A clear trend is the basis of every profitable trade, right? Yes and no. You should primarily focus on trading trends and entering positions during such phases. But Intel is a textbook example of a range bound stock; still there are trading opportunities everywhere. Currently Intel is retesting support and is starting to reverse towards the upside. But please: Manage your risk properly.
Levels to watch: $30, $45
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish HugsSmall caps still look like good long-term play despite Russell 2000 backlog in the first half of 2024 vs Large Cap S&P500 Index (SPX) and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and Nasdaq-100 indices (SPX).
As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD return was about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50% gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC).
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Thursday was a historically strange day in the stock market. That may be good news.
👉 The Russell 2000 rose more than 3%, while struggles for Big Tech stocks weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
At the same time, every stock in the so-called Magnificent Seven fell, including a more than 5% decline for Nvidia and a 2.3% drop for Apple, which dragged down both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
👉 Thursday was just the 2nd day in history since 1979 when the Russell 2000 rose more than 3% while the S&P 500 declined.
The split trading came after the June report for the consumer price index early Thursday showed headline inflation declined last month and is now up about 3% over the past year.
👉 The Nasdaq Composite underperformed the Russell 2000 by more than 5 percentage points in what appears to be largest ever daily gap on record.
The only other time the gap came in above 5 percentage points was in November 2020 (where broad stock rally began), right after Pfizer shared positive results from a Covid-19 vaccine trial.
What is The Russell 2000 Index in US stock market universe?!
👉 The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the US equity universe. The Russell 2000 Index is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index.
👉 The Russell 2000 Index represents just as low as 7% of the total market capitalization, however it includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership (appr. two-third of The Russell 3000 Index components).
👉 The Russell 2000 is constructed to provide a comprehensive and unbiased small-cap barometer and is completely reconstituted annually to ensure larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the true small-cap opportunity set.
Russell 2000 Index characteristics (as of June 30, 2024)
Price/Book: 2.10
Dividend Yield: 1.44
P/E Ex-Neg Earnings: 16.90
EPS Growth - 5 Years: 14.14
Number of Holdings Russell 2000: 1,921
Russell 2000 Index Technical aspects
In technical terms Russell 2000 Breaks 52-Weeks Highs, Recovering from Bearish Hugs
Amazon - Why is there no resistance?NASDAQ:AMZN broke out of a long term consolidation phase and is starting a massive rally.
Every major consolidation is followed by a major breakout. And if the overall trend is bullish, a bullish breakout is more likely to happen. Last month Amazon finally broke above a multi year resistance level and is now heading back to the top of the rising channel formation. If we actually get a retest of the breakout level, you can then simply enter a long position.
Levels to watch: $180, $380
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Nasdaq - (Bullish) Clarity in two days!TVC:NDQ is now retesting a very important inflection level and maybe attempting a breakout.
Parabolic rise or -20% correction over the next couple of months. So far there is a lot of uncertainty as to whether the Nasdaq will manage to break above the current resistance trendline. We simply have to wait for this monthly candle closure as well as the monthly candle closure of July until we can make a clear prediction. So far, everything is still possible!
Levels to watch: $20.000, $16.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Tesla : Approaching Key Resistance Level After Strong RallyBy analyzing #Tesla 's stock chart, we observe that after hitting the first bearish target last time, the price rose again. However, this time, the price did not drop from that level as we expected. Instead, it managed to rise powerfully to $260! Currently, Tesla is near a significant resistance level, and we need to wait for the initial reaction to this level. This analysis will be updated!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Tesla Rebounds From Multi Year Key SupportTesla's shares rose after the announcement of new models.
Tesla shares (TSLA) rose 12 percent in post market trading on Tuesday, tracking gains in the U.S. market after the electric vehicle maker promised new, more affordable models.
Tesla said on Tuesday it would introduce new models by early 2025 using its current platforms and production lines, while backing away from more ambitious plans to produce an all-new model expected to cost $25,000.
The rise in Tesla shares provided a much-needed boost after Tesla struggled for months with tough competition and declining sales.
In technical terms, Tesla shares are supported by a multi-year uptrend.
In addition, resistance trend line is also pointed out.
Down by 55% now, one should you buy or avoid it !Here in Aavas Financiers are already declined by 55% in the last few months and currently trading at the 1353 level with strong support at 1335 & 1330. Look like it will take reversal from this level now and again fly high for a strong target as below :
Buy Above 1385 level on a closing basis
Target 1 - 1510
Target 2 - 1588
Target 3 - 1700
Strict Stop loss - 1300
Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade on my analysis.
IOC on the Fresh Breakout Level for new highsGood Morning Everyone,
Here we can witness the fresh breakout on trendline where IOC can try to approach his life time high level again @ 196 level. Consider the following levels now:
Breakout - 171
1st Target - 196
2nd Target - 220
Stoploss - 153
NOTE : Please consult your financial advisor before taking any trade on this recommendation
Tesla - Breakout leading to four digits!NASDAQ:TSLA is attempting to break out of the long term descending triangle consolidation.
If you cannot wait patiently for your textbook setups, there is no chance you will make money trading. For almost four years, Tesla has been consolidating in a huge triangle formation. And it seems like Tesla is finally breaking out towards the upside. This breakout was actually not unexpected at all and provides a very high probability trading opportunity in the near future.
Levels to watch: $250
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
Next week analysis: FANG & Energy Sector up? Hello everybody, thank you for checking out my trade idea and rundown of the stock market from last week. My analysis here covers the broad stock market, the energy sector, money inflow to small caps, and a potential trade setup in FANG, XLE, or ERX for next week. Please let me know if you have any questions about entries when to enter how to enter how to exit how to scale out or if you have any questions about the indicators I use or the indicators I don't use. I like to keep things simple; most indicators are derived from the price and volume, so I don't need to use indicators to tell what's going on. Have a great trading week and good luck.
🏯 TOPIX FUTURES: JAPANESE BULL SAMURAI IS STILL ALIVELegendary investor Warren Buffett was on a trip to Tokyo, the capital of Japan, two months earlier in mid-April 2023, and the titans of the country's giant energy and commodity conglomerates were there to make their presentations.
As usual, over glasses of Coca-Cola NYSE:KO - one of Buffett's most famous investments, they walked into Warren Buffett's suite at the luxury Four Seasons hotel and individually told the 92-year-old American investor the same thing: Japanese trading houses are cheap and should accelerate their move beyond commodities.
The support of the Oracle of Omaha is an important vote of confidence in the big five Japanese trading houses - Mitsubishi Corporations TSE:8058 , Mitsui TSE:8031 , Sumitomo TSE:8053 , Itochu TSE:8001 and Marubeni TSE:8002
It's also a broad endorsement of Japan, that is considered to have outlived its heyday 30-35 years ago, as well as considered less relevant than Asian counterparts such as China and India.
But there's one big question: Is Buffett betting on phasing out fossil fuels, the trading house products themselves, or a combination of the two? Or something else, like impact of the weak yen!?
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.B reported in August 2020 that it had acquired about 5% of the shares of five trading houses, that sent their stocks up and raised their total investment value above $6 billion. When the Covid-19 pandemic dampened demand for goods, it pushed down the value of company stocks, four of which traded below book value.
“They were selling, I thought, at a ridiculous price,” - Buffett said to CNBC in March 2023.
Three years after the Covid-19 pandemic (that is now hardly remembered) Warren Buffett's bets on Japan have nearly tripled to over $17 billion.
But even this Growth does not stop Buffett. Staying in Tokyo this spring, Buffett confirmed intentions to buy more shares, and participate in more big deals.
In addition, Berkshire recently unveiled plans to issue its own yen-denominated bonds, which help hedge against the depreciation of the yen against the US dollar as well as depreciation of Japanese stocks in dollar terms.
The technical main chart is dedicated to futures on the TOPIX index TSE:TOPIX widely known, along with the Nikkei 225 index $TSE:NKY .
The TOPIX index is an important stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in Japan, tracking all the local companies of the TSE Prime-market division.
Buffett's mission to Japan marked, as it easy to find in the technical picture of TOPIX ( TSE:TOPIX ) - a significant moment, as a result of the breakdown of the key long-term resistance, with the prospect of further more than doubling the index TSE:TOPIX and its market value.
Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) AnalysisTechnological Advancements and Market Position:
Cadence Design Systems NASDAQ:CDNS is well-positioned for growth due to recent technological advancements and its strategic market position. The launch of the Millennium M1 supercomputer, likely powered by Nvidia GPUs, is expected to enhance Cadence's stock value.
Leadership in Semiconductor Design Software:
As a leader in semiconductor design software, Cadence dominates the Electronic Design Automation (EDA) sector alongside Synopsys. Cadence's superior financial health and profit margins provide a competitive edge, allowing it to further strengthen its market dominance while Synopsys integrates recent acquisitions.
CEO Insights and Strategic Vision:
CEO Anirudh Devgan highlighted exceptional 2023 results driven by innovative solutions and the Intelligent System Design strategy, emphasizing opportunities in AI and 3D-IC technologies.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Outlook: We maintain a bullish stance on CDNS above the $285.00-$288.00 range.
Upside Potential: With an upside target set at $400.00-$405.00, investors should consider Cadence's technological leadership, strong financial position, and strategic growth initiatives as key drivers for potential stock appreciation.
📊🖥️ Stay updated on Cadence Design Systems for promising investment opportunities! #CDNS #SemiconductorDesign 📈🔍
Amazon - Breakdown of the breakout!NASDAQ:AMZN is definitely ready for a major bullish (triangle) breakout.
Here we have a textbook example of a bullish stock. Amazon's stock chart is simply moving from bottom left to top right. Of course there are minor corrections here and there, but the trend is clearly higher. For the past four months, Amazon has been hugging a horizontal resistance level and is preparing a bullish breakout. This will certainly become a decent break and retest setup.
Levels to watch: $185
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading