Get started

Stockmarketanalysis

AMZN Back to 1300, Nasdaq Back to 7000Back at the end of 2018, I made an attempt to call a longer term bear market for big tech. Linked below are some of those posts. I was new to markets, and all I did was look at the chart. Even back then, the charts for Apple and Amazon looked ridiculous, but now it's undeniable that they've seen parabolic growth. This is the AMZN chart zoomed further in, where you can see how I was dead wrong at the end of 2018, as the money printer and QE kicked in again, taking the market to new highs shortly before the pandemic hit. Then, the pandemic hit and the Fed exhausted the last of its firepower. Will they save the market again? Above, I marked the 1600 and 1300 levels as areas of support, should the current level fail. Also shown on my Amazon chart is the long term uptrend, which has now been broken and confirmed as resistance. I expect markets to fall back to pre-stimulus levels, as the 2021 rally was largely "fake." Even though some of these companies may continue to remain profitable, I think some disappointing earnings will start to trickle in, signaling a depressing outlook for growth in the near future. Take Netflix, for example. It's already getting closer to testing some of those earlier levels. Perhaps it's a "canary in the coal mine" situation. What's especially concerning is that even companies that have exceeded expectations (like Tesla) cannot sustain a rally. Look at that earnings pump and dump: This implies that market participants are exiting regardless, and booking profits after many years of easy economic policy. Now here's something truly hilarious. Elon Musk and Bill Gates claim to be shorting each other's companies! What happens in this scenario? They both still profit. Billionaires are just playing games. Here are some levels marked for Tesla. If Elon continues to innovate and do well, TSLA may not drop quite as much as some others, but that's still a lot of profit on the table. He's even sold some of his own shares himself: And Microsoft: Why Would the Fed Just Let It Happen? The easiest way to fix inflation is perhaps to just simply let things unwind. As big corporations lose profits, smaller businesses close, and people lose their jobs, their homes...a big financial crunch occurs that shocks the living daylights out of our systems. New solutions will need to be found, some of which may seem obvious, such as taxing the wealthy and corporations much more heavily. Some we haven't even dreamt of yet. Here's a speculation: Community living becomes more desirable, and new small businesses will need to emerge to tailer to those communities. A world owned by corporations already causes pressure on communities and small businesses, where your boss is forced into implementing oppressive working conditions to stay afloat. All the while, your next door neighbor begins trading Dogecoin and digital images to finally have a glimpse at paying off his debt or buying a home. It's an escape into a black void that consumes your soul, and the soul of society. Ready for the collapse? Let's see what happens. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by VictorCobra
15
🐂US100 MAJOR SETUP‼ MUST SEEUS100/Nasdaq has been very bearish, and it quite likely could continue to do so. I have spotted a deeper retracement and have also managed to spot out the end of an Elliot wave sequence, highlighting a reversal. Price has also given us a third touch on the supporting trendline and we could expect a more dramatic reaction in a longer term perspective. Price finding support and reversing in these areas could also form a double bottom, which is a bullish reversal pattern. We should wait for bullish structure to start forming on the 4H first then long. Price may retrace of reverse Make sure you follow to stay updated👍 CURRENCYCOM:US100
ULong
by WAR_ON_FOREX
Stock markets in the era of high inflation part 2In my previous analysis I went deep into a lot of the fundamentals of what is going in stock markets in the current environment. At the moment the main theme is that the Fed will keep on hiking until the market crashes or something else breaks in the financial system. It is unknown how much time will it take for something to break, but it is probably going to happen in 2022. The current inflationary pressures seem extremely strong as they mostly have to do with issues on the supply side, however the Fed can only affect the demand side and they are determined to crush it. At least that’s their goal and it is unknown whether they will be able to do so. The problem is that inflation regardless of high or low interest rates, does a lot of damage on a lot of companies, as it affects both the consumers and the expenses a company has. Therefore, a lot of stocks started coming under significant pressure many months ago, something that wasn’t really visible when someone was looking at an index. The major US indices looked fairly strong up until recently, however by looking at ARKK it is clear that many of the more speculative stuff that don’t make money right now started going down since Feb 2021. That was exactly the point where inflation started going up. As inflation was going higher and higher, more and more companies/indices started peaking in 2021. Some in April-May 2021, others in September 2021 and others in November 2021, while many are now down more than 40-50%. For example, Meta (Facebook) is down 50%, and its current situation looks similar to late 2018 (major gap down and then continued lower), but worse. Another example is Netflix which is down 70% and looks like it could go a lot lower. What is interesting is how Tesla had a huge move up in October – early November, a move that was incredibly abnormal and all indicators were flashing extremely overbought conditions, and Elon Musk managed to sell right at the top while making his move public. This was pretty similar to when Charlie Lee, the founder of Litecoin, made public the fact that he was going to sell his Litecoin position, and his selling marked the top for Litecoin, which occurred a few weeks before the crypto market topped in 2018. What is even more interesting is how Tesla has done so well when many other tech companies have done so poorly, something that could be explained by the fact that finally Tesla is becoming more and more profitable, and on the 20th it announced its earnings which had a big positive surprise. However now these earnings could mark the top for the stock, as its chart is starting to look like a proper top. First an extraordinary blow off top, then failure to push higher or even fill the gap at the top. Then filled the gap at the top while also forming an SFP, and then fell a lot lower. Since then, the market recovered and several exhaustion gaps have occurred up until now, with the most important one being the one that occurred post earnings. When the market opened the day after the announcement, it immediately filled a little gap higher and got quickly slammed back down. These are not good signs for a bull market. Now I’d like to get into the 4 major US indices, with the S&P500 being the main focus. Here I will go deep into the TA in order to get a better idea of where we are and what is going on. The first one is an uncommon one, but one I really like, and that is the Russell 3000 (top 3000 US stocks). Both the topping and the bottoming processes were pretty clean, as at first the top occurred with a nice distribution pattern after the market had been slowing down. Then the bottom came after a 15% correction from its ATHs, and as the market retested its Feb-March 2021 highs which turned into support and right after it swept the May lows. Initially there was strong bounce, then retested the May lows which held and then it pushed higher. However once the market retested the September highs and swept the Feb 2022 highs, it got badly rejected and yesterday it had an awful close. So far this chart could have been the perfect guide for someone trading the US stock market, however it isn’t enough from now on. The next one we are going to look at is the Russell 2000, which had an insane rally in 2020 and early 2021, but since March of 2021 it entered a huge distribution phase. In September the distribution phase was confirmed as the market had a huge breakout that quickly failed and the index quickly retested its range lows. When the range lows broke, they then turned into resistance and have rejected the market twice. Currently the market is retesting the lows once again, which makes me think that they will be broken after being tested so many times. This area could be seen as a double/triple bottom that hasn’t been swept and therefore it is acting like a magnet. In my opinion the market will break the lows, and at best it will have a little bounce after sweeping them, as this pattern looks extremely bearish. After a year of distribution and multiple confirmations of it, it is pretty hard for the market to bottom quickly and therefore after breaking the lows it could collapse further. It looks like the minimum target from here is the 2018 ATH, while fully reversing the vaccine/election trade is pretty likely and means that the Russell could get to 1700 this year. The third index we’ll look into is the Nasdaq 100, and we will look at the spot ETF, not the futures. The reason why I want to look at the spot ETF and not the futures, is that the ETF has some major areas which are of interest, that don’t exist on the futures. In terms of the topping and the bottoming processes, there isn’t much to be said here that differs from what was said above or the futures, other than the fact Nasdaq had two major gaps down that haven’t been filled. This is clearly an indication that tech is being sold a lot harder than the rest of the stock market and that in the future these areas could act as resistance. Now the key area I am looking at, is the triple bottom in the first green zone which like the Russell 2000 bottom will probably be broken even it’s just to sweep the lows and then move higher. The second area is the second green zone which was major resistance in the past and has turned into support, and the third one is that major gap at 276 which could be filled. Another similar chart is that of the S&P500 spot ETF, which has two double bottoms waiting to be broken, and one of the double bottoms is right above a major gap. Like with all the areas mentioned above, these could simply be local bottoms and the market might just have weak bounces or no bounces there. However, I expect the test of 390-400 on the SPY to give a major bounce as it looks a lot like when the Russell 3000 retested its Feb-Mar 2021 highs, swept the lows and filled the gap. Before I zoom out to get better perspective of what is going on the SPX, I’d like to zoom in on the SPY and see how important these gaps and double tops/bottoms are. For example, the two most recent local tops occurred with a gap and by filling a gap, with the first one also sweeping a triple top. The major bottom at 410 occurred after filling a double gap (two unfilled gaps in the same area) and the second bottom around 415 occurred with an SFP. Therefore, you can see how important these patterns are. By zooming out again and using the major Moving Averages, we can see that they are giving us clear signals of whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend, as well as clear signals of where major support or resistance levels lie. For example, the market bottomed at the 400 DMA, and recently topped at an area where the 100 & 200 DMAs were about to cross. Usually when a major MA is tested so many times, it eventually breaks (400 DMA about to be broken). So at the moment the market is in downtrend which might accelerate below the 400 DMA, which looks like it will get broken fairly soon. Then until it gets reclaimed, I assume the trend is bearish and we need to be cautious. By zooming out even more, the two other major MAs I am paying attention to are the 200 and 400 WMAs. At the moment, getting to the 400 WMA seems a bit far-fetched as by that time the Fed will have probably stepped in to save the day. Many are comparing the current hiking cycle with that of 2018, as the Fed kept raising rates until the market collapse and then it quickly stopped hiking rates, and in my opinion this is a decent comparison. Clearly not a perfect one as inflation is much higher, the Fed Funds Rate much lower, the Fed is about to start hiking by 0.5%, markets are more elevated and the global economy in a worse position than back then. The reason why I think this is a decent one and I want to compare it to 2018, is because I think the Fed is in a similar or probably worse position that back then, and therefore they will have to reverse course. Back then the market bottomed after a 20% from its ATHs and at the 200 WMA, which is currently 28% below the ATHs. On the chart below you can see what these corrections would look like when zooming out. I’ve also added what it would look like if we had a mega crash and the market retested the 2000-2008 highs, something I think is extremely unlikely at the moment. As our fiat system is crumbling, the Fed and the US government will be forced to print a lot of money, and therefore the stock market will keep going higher and higher, regardless of how bad the financial conditions are and how many deep corrections will it have.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BitcoinMacro
1
ZEE MEDIA CORPORATION LIMITED( EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY) There is no guarantee in stock market and Nothing over week Always Invest or trade according to your loss bearing capacity STOCK TO STUDY (EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY) ZEE MEDIA CORPORATION LTD.with target of RS 28 CMP IS RS 23 STOP LOSS: ACCORDING TO YOUR RISK APPETITE OR RS 18 Disclaimer: I am not Sebi Registered. All my ideas/opinions and analysis are for your information and educational purposes only and it does not constitute any recommendation to buy or sell any stock or index. Use your own wisdom. M B PANDEY Student of Share Market since 2015 B.Sc. (MATHS & PHYSICS) Disclaimer: I AM NOT SEBI REGISTERED
NSE:ZEEMEDIALong
by vinayaka79
DXYWe completed 5 waves up in an impulsive count from the $89.60 lows. The 3rd wave subdivides nicely into 5 sub waves & also gets blocked at the 1.618% fib extension which is a classic wave 3 extension in a bull market. Then W4 holds above the 1.618% fib level and flips that into support B4 running to the 2.618% fib level which is an inverted wave 3 extension. Now all this EW analysis points the top is now in. But that said I could see wave 5 being parabolic and even running to $104.50 which is the 3.618 fib extension level. Only time will tell but the move looks exhausted IMO.
TVC:DXY
by Big_Mike716
1
Stock markets in the era of high inflation part 1As inflation prints are coming hotter and hotter, and the bond market keeps tumbling lower, there is a lot of debate on whether the stock market remains a good ‘hedge’ or ‘bet’ under these conditions. Well, this isn’t an easy debate and there are no easy answers, but in this analysis, I will try to outline certain important things I am looking at. I will also provide both a short term and long-term outlook by using both fundamental and technical analysis, however I will split the analysis into two pieces. This is part one and you will find part 2 in the links below. First of all, I’d like to look at the big picture and then start zooming in, as it is good to have an idea of where the global economy is right now and how that affects stocks. Well, the global economy is not in a good place as there is too much debt in the world, supply chains have all sorts of issues from the China lockdowns to the war in Ukraine, the population is aging, Covid created a lot of negative imbalances and the underinvestment in commodities has create a lot of shortages. Now all these are occurring after stocks had reached insane valuations in 2020-2021, inflation is at multiyear highs and at the same time the Fed wants to hike rates by 0.5% on every meeting in 2022 in order to fight that inflation. Their goal is to reverse the wealth effect it created in 2020-2021 in order to fight deflation, and they might keep hiking until the stock market collapses. When someone looks at all the above, he must be thinking that shorting stocks is a great idea and that the market will collapse soon. However, the truth is that the US economy is in a much better shape than many others as it produces a lot of the commodities it needs, US companies have been strong and earning prove that, while several companies substantially benefit from the current inflationary circumstances. For example, consumer staples and commodities producers are greatly benefiting from all the shortages and therefore their stocks have gone up. Of course, not all companies are doing well, as many of the more unprofitable/speculative companies are suffering greatly due to their profits being reduced or the debts repayments being increased. Higher inflation is eating away from the profits of some of those companies, while higher bond yields have increased the borrowing costs for others. These in turn have a negative effect on the stock prices at best some of these companies pay less dividends, while many companies might be pushed to bankruptcy if they can’t repay their debts. You might now be thinking: ‘If so many companies are doing poorly and bond yields are going higher, shouldn’t we be worried? If the 60/40 portfolio is getting crushed, couldn’t that create a larger crash? If the Fed is ‘telling us’ that it wants stocks to go lower, shouldn’t we get out?’ Well, during all the previous hiking cycles stocks mostly rose at the beginning and fell towards the end, and in our situation the Fed has barely begun hiking. Bond yields going higher means that bonds are being sold, and some of that capital could redirected into the stock market. Stocks are much more of hard asset than bonds are, as companies can profit from bad situation and investors can dump the losers to buy the winners, while the government usually ends up borrowing more and more, diluting the value of existing bonds. The market might have taken yields to 2.5-3%, but based on my analysis this is close to the point where I believe bond yields are going to top (bonds bottom). The more the Fed is raising rates, the more I believe they will create a recession and this in turn could make inflation come down. Inflation won’t go away, though it could be much closer to 3-4%, than 8-9%. In my opinion getting back into a disinflationary trend would greatly benefit stocks, and therefore in case stocks dip because of the Fed, I am a buyer. My reasoning is that if the Fed keeps raising rates, something will break and they will then be forced to the cut rates and start buying bonds. Essentially based on the current set of circumstances stocks could keep going up for a while, then crash, and then the Fed will be forced to step in to prevent the financial system from melting down. However, one thing is clear and it is very clear. There is so much leverage in the system, there is so much debt, there are so many issues in the economy, that the only way out is by devaluing the dollar, not by making it stronger. Raising rates to crush demand isn’t what ordinary people who can’t pay their rent need. They need cash in order to buy stuff they need, yet can’t afford. Politically this is the only politically acceptable way moving forward, and at the same time is the best outcome for the stock market. It will of course exacerbate the inflation and increase the liquidity in stocks which has been lacking recently. Actually, since Feb 2021 things have started deteriorating for stocks as governments stopped supporting businesses and banks cut down on lending, hence if they resume this would be pretty bullish. Oftentimes we see stocks do well in nominal terms during bad times, as the currency is losing value and people are trying to escape the devaluation. In real terms investors might be underperforming, but it might be better than holding fiat. Hence even if stocks have topped for now, it doesn’t mean the bull market is over, because the devaluation of fiat isn’t over. Another interesting thing to note here is that real rates have gone back to 0, as they were deeply negative before. These deeply negative rates definitely benefited the stock market as investors were trying to escape cash and bonds, but now cash and bonds have become somewhat attractive again. My belief is that inflation will start slowing down in the next few months and that the Fed is already too late, hence real rates will probably increase even more. This could be either seen as a positive if you believe that the Fed will slow down its rate hikes as they realize they don’t need to hike as much or it could be seen as a negative if you believe that they will completely ignore future inflation prints and raise rates until prices go down or something breaks.
FX:SPX500
by BitcoinMacro
TRADE IDEA SPDR S&P500 HEY GUYS, I HOPE YOU'RE ALL DOING WELL. this is my general outlook on the market i am currently bullish on the stocks market and looking to buy the dips as far as i can see a retracement is due in both indexes and some profit taking so that happens this is my plan of attack keep in mind that this is an idea a plan in a uncertain chaotic environment out of multiple plans to be cirtainedif anything happens that changes the fundamentals of this idea, i will update. please note that this is not financial advice. do your own research and use this information as conformational biase on top of your own analysis. like for support!!!!
AMEX:SPYLong
by zeyankhan1318
3
Bitcoin & Pre-Market - Reasons to remain cautiously optimistic!Traders, We have tested our multi-year support yet again! As you know, this is something I did not want to see us doing. However, our support remains incredibly strong and thus, we have bounced yet again off of that support. This is now the 16th or 17th time (depending on what one classifies as a touch) that we have tested our support. Currently, Bitcoin is forming a bullish hammer candle. Let's to a quick review of our charts here. ⛓️ 🔗 Useful Links 🔗 ⛓️ (see below)
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
TWITTER - LongThe bullish impulse from May 2016 formed an Expanding Leading Diagonal for Twitter. According to Elliott Wave Theory, this pattern (occurs as Wave 1 or Wave A) usually dictates the direction of impulse - in this case, to the upside. As long as we don't break below $13.70, all retracements are considered as Wave 2. Once Wave 2 completes, a more impulsive Wave 3 will ensue - it could already be in the works, considering we've bounced off significantly from the $30 range. Twitter will probably see ~$140 in the coming years.
NYSE:TWTRLong
by dsbw99
IDBI BANK LTD( EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY) There is no guarantee in stock market and Nothing over week Always Invest or trade according to your loss bearing capacity STOCK TO STUDY (EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY) IDBI BANK LTD. with target of RS 50 CMP IS RS 47.35 STOP LOSS: ACCORDING TO YOUR RISK APPETITE OR RS 45 Disclaimer: I am not Sebi Registered. All my ideas/opinions and analysis are for your information and educational purposes only and it does not constitute any recommendation to buy or sell any stock or index. Use your own wisdom. M B PANDEY Student of Share Market since 2015 B.Sc. (MATHS & PHYSICS) Disclaimer: I AM NOT SEBI REGISTERED
NSE:IDBILong
by vinayaka79
NVDA Supply And Demand AnalysisHTF (Higher Timeframe) -Price inside HTF monthly rally base rally demand -Trend = uptrend -Look for lower timeframe confirmation. LTF (Lower timeframe) -Downward ML Break -Opposing Zones Removed -Price inside monthly demand -Daily Confirmation Setup (potential buy stop so you would get filled on the way out + you would get extra LTF confirmation. OR -OR you can use the daily as the HTF and go down to smaller timeframes and wait for new confirmation...
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by MoneyballAustin
2
LT FOODS LIMITED( EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY)There is no guarantee in stock market and Nothing over week Always Invest or trade according to your loss bearing capacity STOCK TO STUDY (EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY) LT FOODS LTD. with target of RS 94 CMP IS RS 90.55 STOP LOSS: ACCORDING TO YOUR RISK APPETITE OR RS 85 Disclaimer: I am not Sebi Registered. All my ideas/opinions and analysis are for your information and educational purposes only and it does not constitute any recommendation to buy or sell any stock or index. Use your own wisdom. M B PANDEY Student of Share Market since 2015 B.Sc. (MATHS & PHYSICS) Disclaimer: I AM NOT SEBI REGISTERED
NSE:LTFOODSLong
by vinayaka79