US Dollar RetracementThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback versus a bundle of its main rival currencies has ended the week bearishly confirming a reversal candlestick (Bearish Engulfing) after sliding by 1.34% throughout the week. The weekly chart shows the potential for a retracement, even within the ongoing trend, the next support lines up at 102.65 (weekly low May 19) followed by 102.35 (low May 5) and then 99.81 (weekly low April 21).
The dollar and gold have been well proven to be safe-haven support from the negative impact of the worldwide negative pressuring factors. The US dollar has also benefited from a special bid due to technology stocks. That bubble is bursting at the moment and it will draw money out of the US during the next wave of investing, which will be in value stocks.
Stockmarketanalysis
Trading plan and review of Key Levels for major marketsReview of the key levels in the major markets as global markets continue to bounce and find more buyers. Powell was concerned for the high inflation levels and hinted at being more aggressive if needed sending bond yields higher. Traders focused on the stronger than expected economic numbers and the resilience of the US consumer. USD fell away from highs as safe havens exited.
The general trend for major Indexes remains down with the USD, Inflation and Interest Rate Rises in focus.
BITCOIN and ETHEREUM remained around lows as buyers remained on the sidelines unwilling to again follow share markets higher. Expect that if share Indexes again turn south, cryptos may take another hit.
Markets covered
US - DOW, Nasdaq and SP500
Europe - DAX and FTSE100
Asia - Hang Seng, ASX200 and Nikkei
FX - Dollar Index (USD), EURUSD , GBPUSD , AUDUSD and USDJPY
Commodities - GOLD , Oil and Copper
Crypto - Bitcoin and Ethereum
Nasdaq (5/2/22) - BULLISH - Bullish rally coming this week?Nasdaq (5/2/22): After the announcements of the expected 500 basis-points rate hike from the FED last week, there was a mass sell-off in the markets. However, we're now getting Bullish Divergence on the RSI. This means that we are losing strength from the sselling pressure. We are likely to bottom out soon, maybe today or in the next couple of days.
Crypto: For those crypto investors/traders, this also means that we are likely going to get a Bullish rally this week/next week. Bitcoin/Crypto has been following the Nasdaq quite closely since late last year. We can see there is a direct correlation between the two and I've been using the Nasdaq as an indicator for Bitcoin.
Sidenote: We are in a BEAR market so far in 2022, so I do not believe that this rally will send us into new All-Time Highs in the stock market. I do believe we are going down much lower this year eventually. Every rally will likely end in a Bull trap and sell-off. The possibility of a continued sell-off here, even though the RSI is oversold, is always imminent as well. I would also not be totally shocked to see the market just continue down from here. However, these are my thoughts based on the current look. Will be watching and updating.
SPX Short Term Rally On The TableMarkets are oversold and as bad as the Macro Environment is, things are not spiraling at this very moment.
I suspect we will continue to see momentum swing to the upside short term as we head into the rest of this week.
It is possible we are seeing a false move on a Monday but TA suggests a fair chance for a bounce.
Now, this does not detract from my overall Medium-term sentiment.
Because if you look here, things on a Macro scale are still at risk: This is the NASDAQ
I measured the number of days it has taken the NDQ to retest 50ma monthly. We have now exceeded the last time by 607 days. That paired with Price still just landing in the middle of the channel suggests medium-term downside still. Pay attention to RSI as well. It seems like a textbook Bear Market rally.
This is also a Dooms Day Scenario for the SPX:
Here is the Macro view for reference:
I suspect as the market continues to rally, Powell will make his appearance and cool down the markets once again as he continues to fight for Price Stability and maintain a Hawkish Stance.
For now, we just ride the potential wave to restest the lost level and go from there!
Please express any opinions down below;
Can DJI do what BTC did in 2021Overall macro trend and potential of any big markets are the full fib retracement prior to the largest correction they had. DJI is just met 3.618 and it seems the stock market might have a rally or one more push. to explain it better BTC had the same pattern in 2021. The first bull in Q1 2021 was massive but not reached its full potential like ETH. The Q3 rally was to finish the hype in a larger market cap. in Crypto and stock, there are plenty of (shares / Coins) that have been sitting in a low areas and usually, they will come when most of the market is done but one last hype/euphoria has remained. I believe the time is coming but I believe I am not a professional TA as well :)
This is just my vision and idea, please do your own research and share your opinion :)
Predicting the stock market crash.In 2019, I predicted the stock market crash with the link here:
Then, in Jan 2022, I predicted the drop on the top of SPX500 ,
Now, I am updating on it that it will continue to drop and sticking to the bias as monthly closing bearish .
I would be waiting to buy stocks when it bottom !
Bank Nifty Intraday StrategyHi Everyone ....
Hope you all are doing good :))
First of all yesterday US market down by 1000 points so maybe banknifty gives us a gap-down opening.
So Let's try to understand today's #banknifty chart,
Here we can see that banknifty taking a support near the level of 35100 and previously it takes resistance at the level of 35800 but now resistance shift down side at the level of 35600.
Now let's see how to trade today>>
1. As we know market open with a gap so if banknifty go below the level of 35100 then go for the PE till the target of 34700 also 34700 is a golden zone so 34700 works as a good support.
2. 35100 is also a good support if banknift fill the gap then go for CE till the target of 35600.
3. If we get banknifty near the levels of 35600-35800 the go for PE till the target of 35100.
That's all for the day.
Thank YOU:))
Bitcoin Stock Market & Recession CorrelationI wanted to create a view to hightlight correlation and Bitcoin (BTC) with the stock market (here the S&P500).
This chart has many areas of interest.
It shows Bitcoin can be completely detached from the stock market (as it runs it somewhat independent cycles).
It also show Bitcoin can be indicating a stock market top.
We only have one recesssion to observe Bitcoins behaviour. It show Bitcoin seems to have been affected by the recession in 2018 (respectively the 20% drop in S&P500).
If we consider where in the cycle Bitcoin is and expect a recession in global markets it is difficult if not just simply impossible to predict Bitcoins behaviour.
The assumption is Bitcoin can act independent of the market.
Market participants could more and more use Bitcoin and not to forget the crypto market as a whole to hedge inflation.
What the chart shows beautifully is that Bitcoin clearly has the higher rates of return! ;)
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Global Market Rolling OverThe VT which tracks global indexes is showing clear signs that the global market is rolling over to the downside. The end of this decline is around the $79-83 price range. With geopolitical and inflation concerns, we could reach this buy zone quickly. At that point, there will be a lot of stocks at a great discount.
NASDAQ 100: We Have Found the Bottom!NASDAQ 100 has been in a downtrend for the last couple of weeks. This has caused a lot of stock to retrace.
As of now we are at the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud on the Weekly chart. We have perfectly formed a bottom on the Ichimoku Cloud and respscted it as support for three weeks. This level is what is holding up the NASDAQ 100. We have also formed a resistance confirmed by the EMA Ribbons. I am currently looking out for a daily close above 14080 to confirm any bullish price action. As long as we are under 14080 the NASDAQ has a tendency of breaking below the major support of the Ichimoku Cloud. This scenario is highly unlikely due to the fact that we have a red 9 on the TD-Sequential which indicates that we are at or near the bottom. We also have a bullish divergence on the CM_Ult_RSI which is a good signal of reversal.
Look for a breakout of the 1st EMA Ribbon (14370) and a short term rejection of the second EMA Ribbon (14750). If the 1st EMA Ribbon gets mounted as support the NASDAQ will be looking extremely bullish.
*WARNING* This thread is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor.
Thank you for reading.
The Frightening Similarity between the SPY in 2008 vs 2022! 😨Hey everyone!
Almost 1:1 fractal between the crash in 2008 and today.
The scales have almost tipped. Stay ready.
Just remember, be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful. It seems to me that many believe that the bull run is not over. Interest rates are increasing to counter inflation. Interest rate hikes slow down the economy. We are almost there.
✌️ Seb
PRISM JOHNSON LIMITED ( EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY)
There is no guarantee in stock market and Nothing over week
Always Invest or trade according to your loss bearing capacity
STOCK TO STUDY (EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE ONLY)
PRISM JOHNSON LTD. with target of RS 125 CMP IS RS114.10
STOP LOSS: ACCORDING TO YOUR RISK APPETITE OR RS 105
Disclaimer: I am not Sebi Registered. All my ideas/opinions and analysis are for your information and educational purposes only and it does not constitute any recommendation to buy or sell any stock or index. Use your own wisdom.
M B PANDEY
Student of Share Market since 2015
B.Sc. (MATHS & PHYSICS)
Disclaimer: I AM NOT SEBI REGISTERED
SPY FORCAST- on the weekly chart : the forth week on a row where the price closed red
- on the daily chart : big red candle with a descent volume could indicate the end of the down trend
- personal opinion : the strong momentum of the down trend could easly break that level and continue down , theres no attack from the buyers thus no warnings or signals for a reversel and the big volume on last red candle could mean the returne of the selling pressure
- best move : hold your position if your a seller , no doubling
HOW TO CATCH & RIDE MULTIBAGGERSHello traders!
This stock has given 37x in just 5 months in its previous move which was the 1st move. Again it has close above 50ma ,20ma and 6ma after bouncing from its previous support or demand zone at 113. We can take entry at cmp with proper position sizing as the risk here is approx. 35%. To catch multibagger stocks we have to take that risk with proper sizing to deal with the fear in trading.
Stoploss should be kept below the previous support of 95 below weekly closing.
Targets are mentioned in the chart clearly. It can go up to 22x.
NOTE : Once we achieve the 1st target of 100%, we have to book 50% of our total position and forget the 50% for investment purpose. That is the funda of catching multibagger stocks.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is for sharing my views and not be considered as trading recommendation.
Can you stomach a 20% drop in the SPX? I start off by stating that I do not actively trade in indexes but would like to share my thoughts on SPX similar to what I did with DJIA.
The SPX has had an incredible run since March 2020 (2194) to the high of 4808 made at the beginning of the year. What were the reasons for this?
1) Low to no interest policy of the FED
2) Optimism of recovery from Covid and vaccine discovery.
3) Free money being available and a lot of amateur traders getting into the market
This Index however has run out of steam. Technically speaking, there are massive reversal signs that are in play since May 2021.
1) Weekly Overbought on RSI
2) RSI Divergence on the weekly chart
3) Head and shoulders pattern complete
On a fundamental side we have:
1) Interest rate increase to combat inflation
2) The China lockdown
3) An energy crisis
4) The sad invasion of Ukraine
The year long consolidation between 4500-4800 is a dire warning that the market is in consolidation for a big move. It is very unlikely to be up and we are looking at the initial levels of 3400.
If the consolidation lasts for a few months, these levels will not hold and we will see a bigger drop. There is no timeline on the weekly chart, but let's revisit this chart in July, October 2022 and January 2023 to see where the market is at.
TESLA FORCAST- on the weekly chart : a very big red candle with a descent wick rejecting a support level
- on the daily chart : a buying signal appears with a good volume , but yet to be confirmd by a green candle
- personnal opinion : the trend could see a reversel upwards
- best move : wait for monday's candle , if it green then open a buying position