S&P500 First 4H Golden Cross since April !** The Golden Cross **
S&P just finished a very bullish week and on the 4H chart it is about to form a Golden Cross (MA50 crossing above the MA200). That will be the first time to see a 4H Golden Cross since April 15. That alone is a very bullish sign but it's not the only one we should consider.
** Symmetry on Inverse H&S and Fibonacci levels **
The main pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders, from which the price seems to be detaching from as S&P is recovering from September's fall. In fact so far the recovery seems to be symmetrical as the Highs and Lows of the September downtrend, seem to be filled quite accurately on the current uptrend. The Fibonacci retracement levels appear to be quite aligned.
The first Lower High of the downtrend (September 04) was at 3490. If that level is rejected (or at least leave a margin up to the 0.786 Fib), then it is possible to see a pull-back to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as the Golden Cross is formed, in a similar way it did during the Death Cross (September 15). On any other occasion, it should be a straight rise to the All Time High.
Which of the two do you think it is going to be? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Most recent signal on S&P:
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Spxsignals
S&P500 Why do you keep ignoring the 4H MA50?Isn't that true? Since the index broke above it on September 28, the MA50 on the 4H chart has been the most reliable buy entry you could get. So far (counting yesterday) this happened three times. I've mentioned this potential on a few studies with the most recent one as seen below:
Technically every Higher High on this Channel Up is on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension of the previous High. See how consistent this has been on two occasions. This sets the target at 3460.
Based on a recurring RSI sequence (Channel Down accumulation into a strong bullish break-out), the price may be preparing an even stronger jump.
Don't lose sight of the greater picture:
Are you gonna keep ignoring the 4H MA50? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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S&P500 Rebound on the 4H MA50Pattern: 4H MA50 rebound.
Signal: Buy as last time the 4H MA50 was tested and held as Support, a 2 month rally started. RSI and MACD are similar to that fractal of early July.
Target: 3480 (the -0.5 Fib extension).
Most recent S&P signal:
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SPX & MACDs Monthly Relations 18 selling & buying singles 1980it is a dangerous indicator if you are a trading a monthly swings . It lies allot :-) . 30 % picking Tops , better than weekly in some areas and
worse than weekly in others. they are competing,weekly & monthly, who is more worse than the other ;-)
wish you all the best.
S&P500 Buy Signal (long-term)Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from its previous bottom.
Target: 3590 medium-term (Resistance) and for long-term traders 3900 (+21.90% rise from this bottom).
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S&P500 Does the 'Megaphone of Death' compare to that of 1990s?Last week I looked into S&P's monthly chart for clues on the long-term trend (see chart below). Most indicators point towards a new Bull Phase despite the general bearish sentiment in the market this week.
** The 'Megaphone of Death' **
I went a time-frame lower into 1W and found something I wanted to share with you. S&P500 recovered slowly after the 1987 Black Monday crash and before the aggressive Bull Phase of the late 1990s, it had a turbulent period within a Megaphone pattern in the early 1990s. That volatile period resembles the price action since early 2018, which has formed the pattern I previously called 'Megaphone of Death'. The past two plus years have also marked a turbulent period for the markets (after an uninterrupted growth phase of 10 years since the subprime crisis) as the U.S. - China trade war and the COVID pandemic issued Lower Low corrections from the Higher Highs (thus creating the Megaphone).
** Will history repeat itself? **
As you see both Megaphones are fairly similar, their Highs and Lows match. Currently we are on the (g) leg. If history is repeated, the correction of these past few weeks should be over soon and the following quarters should see Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
What do you think? Are you a buyer or a seller on this one? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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S&P500 Buy SignalPattern: Rectangle into an Ascending Triangle.
Signal: Buy as the price is consolidating on the Higher Low trend-line.
Target: 3,425 (right below the Resistance).
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S&P We may be starting a new 10 year Bull Cycle!S&P's weakness in recent weeks has got many thinking that the rally since the March correction is over and that maybe a new round of selling is ahead of us. On such occasions I have found it extremely useful to consult very long-term time-frames (such as the 1M in this instance) and look how similar patterns traded in the past.
As you see on the current study, the current phase we are in resembles the post Black Monday (1987) price action (even though the recovery after the March COVID collapse has been quicker than that of Black Monday's). What preceded the two events is also identical as displayed by the a-b-c-d sequence. After the (d) leg that breached the 1M MA200, a long term bullish cycle started that was interrupted violently by Black Monday. That is very similar to how S&P traded after the 2000 Dot Com crash and subprime collapse (a-b-c-d) leading to a long term bullish cycle that was violently cut by the COVID sell-off. The RSI and LMACD (as we are on the logarithmic scale) also print similar readings.
If history repeats itself, S&P is not ahead of another sell-off but instead has much greater probabilities of being at the very start of a new 10 year Bull Market! Do you agree with that?
Of course it has to be said that there was no pandemic back then nor catastrophic economy lockdowns. But it has to be said that catalysts in Economics may come in different shapes while having the exact same impact/ weight on the market and peoples' psychology. After all it is psychology with fear and greed that is moving the stock markets.
So are you feel we are ahead of a new Bull Cycle or are you selling, expecting a new bearish hit? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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S&P The 0.618 Fibonacci is the keyThe current sequence on S&P has been seen before, in fact in late June. It was again a Channel Down on the 4H chart with the MACD on a somewhat Inverse Head and Shoulders formation.
The June fractal failed to break above the 0.618 Fibonacci and the Channel made one more Lower Low before the smooth and sustainable 2 month bull run took place.
Coincidentally S&P failed to break the 0.618 Fibonacci today and naturally got rejected. It is obvious that this holds the key to a potentially new sustainable rally, otherwise we might see a new Lower Low within the Channel.
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S&P500 Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Bullish as long as the price trades above the middle (white line) of the Channel Up, (B) Bearish if it breaks below.
Target: (A) 3600 (Higher High of the Channel), (B) 3450 (within the 0.5 Fibonacci and former accumulation level).
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Bullish towards the Higher High trend-line and roughly a +15% extension from the top. Bearish after that towards the 4H MA50.
Target: 3,530 and 3,465 respectively.
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S&P500 Sell SignalPattern: Higher Lows on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price has completed a +2.20% bullish leg.
Target: 3375 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement level).
Most recent S&P trade:
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Bullish Megaphone
Signal: (A) Buy as long as the 3200 Support holds, (B) Bearish if it breaks.
Target: (A) 3325 (just below the Higher Highs trend-line), (B) 3150 (just above the Higher Lows trend-line).
Most recent signal:
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S&P500 Sell SignalPattern: Ascending Triangle
Signal: Bearish as the price got rejected on the monthly Resistance and is printing a bearish MACD formation.
Target: 3090 (contact with the Higher Lows trend-line 1).
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S&P Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 1H.
Signal: Bearish as the price got rejected on Resistance 1. Bullish where the Higher Low trend-line crosses on the Support 1 & 2.
Target: 3,168 (Resistance 1) and if broken then the Resistance 2.
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Most recent S&P signal:
S&P500 Sell SignalPattern: Resistance/ Support trading.
Signal: Bearish as the price is testing the Resistance Zone.
Target: 3080 (just above the Symmetrical Support).
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Most recent S&P signal:
S&P Trading planPattern: Channel Up within a Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: (A) Bearish as long as the price is within Channel Up towards the 4H MA50. (B) Bullish if the Channel Up bounces near the 4H MA50. (C) Bullish if the Higher High trend-line of the Channel Up breaks upwards. (D) Bearish if the Higher Low trend-line of the Channel Up breaks downwards.
Target: (A) 3050, (B) 3140, (C) 3190, (D) 2930.
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